Index numbers and consistency in aggregation

This paper is an analysis of the concept of consistency in aggregation. This is the conjunction of three requirements: (i) for any given partition of the variables, two-stage aggregation is consistent, (ii) that each subaggregate and the overall aggregate have the same functional form, and (iii) that all partitions of the variables are feasible. We show that in the scalar case this results in a quasi-additive functional form. The generalization to many attributes is however shown to lead to few restrictions.     

Linearity of the return to education and self selection

This paper investigates the earnings-education profile in Spain. First no functional form is imposed on this relation but instead dummy variables are used for each year of education. Second, different alternatives are analysed until the best parametric form is found. Moreover problems related to the self selection of individuals and to the segmentation of the labour market based on the educational level are considered. The main results indicate that the effect of education on earnings is not significant until individuals finish secondary education and from there onwards the relationship can be considered linear.     

城市群功能分工、工业技术进步与工业污染——来自长三角城市群的数据检验

2003年起,我国城市群由专业化分工快速转向功能分工,但优化城市群功能分工是否有利于改善环境污染问题？运用2003-2017年长三角城市群面板数据,采用仅包括自变量空间滞后的SLX模型,研究城市群功能分工与工业技术进步对工业污染排放强度的影响效应。结果发现：在城市群层面,功能分工与工业污染排放强度呈正“U”型关系;功能分工结构效应和工业技术进步均能够显著降低工业污染排放;在城市群内部,功能分工空间溢出效应和工业技术进步空间滞后效应均有利于邻近城市减轻环境污染;但城市群功能分工技术效应和技术溢出效应均未体现出预期减排效应,城市群内部各城市间功能分工与协作需进一步加强。     

The Determinants Of The Adoption Of Advanced Manufacturing Technology

The paper investigates empirically the decision of firms to adopt ‘Advanced Manufacturing Technologies’ (AMT) based on a comprehensive specification of a ‘rank model’ of technology adoption using firm-level data for Swiss manufacturing. The explanatory variables include numerous dimensions of (anticipated) benefits from and costs of technology adoption allowing for uncertainty as well as for information and adjustment costs. Moreover, the effect of complementarities between various functional groups of AMT (design, fabrication, communication, etc.) as well as of learning from the use of previous technology vintages within such functional groups is analyzed, Finally, the size-dependence of the adoption decision is studied in detail. The model yields a quite robust pattern of explanation across estimates with different adoption variables (time period of introduction of AMT, intensity of use of AMT, etc.) with plausible differences of the results based on the alternative adoption measures used.     

Nonlinear predictability of stock market returns: Evidence from nonparametric and threshold models

Recent empirical evidence suggests that stock market returns are predictable from a variety of financial and macroeconomic variables. However, with two exceptions this predictability is based upon a linear functional form. This paper extends this research by considering whether a nonlinear relationship exists between stock market returns and these conditioning variables, and whether this nonlinearity can be exploited for forecast improvements. General nonlinearities are examined using a nonparametric regression technique, which suggest possible threshold behaviour. This leads to estimation of a smooth-transition threshold type model, with the results indicating an improved in-sample performance and marginally superior out-of-sample forecast results.     

Screen wars,star wars,and sequels

In this paper we use nonparametric statistical tools to quantify motion-picture profit. We quantify the unconditional distribution of profit, the distribution of profit conditional on stars and sequels, and we also model the conditional expectation of movie profits using a nonparametric data-driven regression model. The flexibility of the nonparametric approach accommodates the full range of possible relationships among the variables without prior specification of a functional form, thereby capturing nonlinearities and interactions without introducing possible specification bias. We find that marginal returns to budgets and opening screens vary over the domain of these variables. We also find that the conditional distribution of movie profit and the expected level of profit are related to the use of movie stars and sequels.     

Consumer confidence and consumption forecast: a non-parametric approach

The consumer confidence index is a highly observed indicator among short-term analysts and news reporters and it is generally considered to convey some useful information about the short-term evolution of consumer expenditure. However, its usefulness in forecasting households consumption is sometimes questioned in empirical studies. A possible weakness can be due to the use of a linear functional form to model the relation between these two variables. Here, in order to overcome this issue, a non-parametric model is used, so that overly restrictive assumptions about the functional form can be avoided.     

土地价格和享乐评价方法

本文介绍了享乐价格理论的基本模型及享乐价格函数的估计（包括自变量的选择、自变量和因变量资料的收集及函数形式的选择）,结合我国的具体情况,讨论了享乐方法的应用可能性。为了进一步明确享乐方法应用条件,讨论了享乐方法应用的前提假设,最后,作者认为享乐方法可以成为城市地价评估的手段之一。     

Specification of production functions for analyzing technical change and factor inputs in agricultural development

This paper focuses on some vital issues involed in specifying the number of variables to be included in agriculture's production function and on the functional form that the agricultural production function should assume in the context of a computable general equilibrium model. When land and intermediate inputs (seeds and fertilizers) as well as capital and labor are included, modeling the agricultural sector can best be done in a more disaggregated format than simple Cobb-Douglas or CES specifications. After examining the transcendental logarithmic production function, the paper proposes to adopt ‘nested’ CES specifications on the basis of empirically observed elasticities of substitution.     

RELATIVE CONCENTRATION CURVE: FUNCTIONAL FORM AND MEASURES OF NON-PROPORTIONALITY

The note presents an explicit functional form in one equation of a relative concentration curve relating the first-moment distributions of any pair of variables as well as two summary measures of non-proportionality that can be visualized by distance and area properties of a relative concentration curve.     

Openness, Productivity and Growth: What Do We Really Know?

Comparative data for 93 countries are used to analyse the robustness of the relationship between openness and total factor productivity growth. Nine indexes of trade policy are used to investigate whether the evidence supports the view that total factor productivity growth is faster in more open economies. The results are robust to the use of openness indicator, estimation technique, time period and functional form, and suggest that more open countries experienced faster productivity growth. Although the use of instrumental variables help dealing with endogeneity, issues related to causality remain somewhat open, and require time series analyses to be adequately addressed     

Implications of consumer heterogeneity in time-series estimates of US money demand

The money demand function has traditionally been estimated with income and interest rates, typically employing quite lengthy time series. Controversy, however, surrounds the importance of heterogeneous agents in monetary economics and throughout macroeconomics more generally. In particular, if proportions of agents with different traits (and hence, different money demands) are changing over time, ignoring those changes may bias estimated income and interest elasticities. This concern, as well as that of appropriate functional form, is explored here. Controlling for consumer heterogeneity has surprising effects on the estimated elasticities of traditional variables.     

The role of money demand functions in one-sector growth models

This paper shows that the assumption made regarding the functional form of the demand for money has a crucial role in determining the effect of the rate of inflation on the steady-state capital intensity in a one-sector monetary growth model. It is also indicated that by introducing money into a growth model, which assumes a fixed coefficient technology production function and a homogeneous savings function, a long-run instability problem can be avoided, irrespective of the form of the money demand function.     

基于韧性视角的区域硬科技创新组态分析

硬科技是推动我国经济转型升级的关键技术,建设富有韧性的硬科技创新体系已成为提升国家科技实力、应对新一轮科技革命的重要路径。基于韧性视角,构建驱动硬科技创新发展的整合性分析框架,运用定性比较分析方法对中国沿海城市和内陆城市进行组态比较分析。研究发现,沿海城市推动硬科技创新发展的驱动路径有3条,内陆有4条;两类区域驱动路径中,硬科技创新发展的核心驱动条件具有差异性,同时,多样性、进化性、流动性、缓冲性条件的替代关系也不同。研究结论对促进沿海和内陆城市的硬科技创新具有一定借鉴意义。     

可持续理念下的交互景观设计策略与方法研究

在信息化时代,科技高速发展,人们赖以生存的城市正在向智慧型城市转变,并不断将科学技术整合到创造性活动之中。景观作为城市系统的一部分,具有艺术形式与人文内涵,需要满足多元化的服务需求。景观的交互设计注重功能优化与美学提升,成为解决传统景观弊端的方式。从交互理念在景观设计中的应用出发,对交互景观设计策略与方法进行研究,通过对智慧城市背景下的交互景观发展优势与必要性进行论述,研究交互景观发展现状。以北京海淀Smart能量公园为例进行交互景观的设计分析,提出交互景观设计策略与方法,并对交互景观未来发展趋势进行展望。     

Estimation of TFP growth: a semiparametric smooth coefficient approach

This article uses a semiparametric smooth coefficient model (SPSCM) to estimate TFP growth and its components (scale and technical change). The SPSCM is derived from a nonparametric specification of the production technology represented by an input distance function (IDF), using a growth formulation. The functional coefficients of the SPSCM come naturally from the model and are fully flexible in the sense that no functional form of the underlying production technology is used to derive them. Another advantage of the SPSCM is that it can estimate bias (input and scale) in technical change in a fully flexible manner. We also used a translog IDF framework to estimate TFP growth components. A panel of U.S. electricity generating plants for the period 1986?C1998 is used for this purpose. Comparing estimated TFP growth results from both parametric and semiparametric models against the Divisia TFP growth, we conclude that the SPSCM performs the best in tracking the temporal behavior of TFP growth.     

Factor analysis and structural equation model for patent analysis: a case study of Apple’s technology

In this study, we analyse patent data for technology analysis (TA) because patents are rich in information on developed technology. The results of TA can be used to perform more efficient research and development (R&D) planning. Most companies are trying to develop new and innovative technologies to improve their competitive positions. Research involving TA has been introduced in a variety of fields. Most of the published research analysed original variables related to a target technology. However, it is necessary to analyse the latent variables as well as the original variables included in the technology to achieve a better TA model. Therefore, we propose a factor analysis and a structural equation model for patent analysis. In addition, we use Apple’s patents to determine the target technology. In our case study, we analyse Apple’s technologies by latent variables. Our case study shows how the proposed model is applied to Apple’s R&D planning.     

The empirical content of Cournot competition

We consider the testable implications of the Cournot model of market competition. Our approach is nonparametric in the sense that we abstain from imposing any functional specification on market demand and firm cost functions. We derive necessary and sufficient conditions for (reduced form) equilibrium market price and quantity functions to be consistent with the Cournot model. In addition, we present identification results for the corresponding inverse market demand function and the firm cost functions. Finally, we use our approach to derive testable restrictions for the models of perfect competition, collusion and conjectural variations. This identifies the conditions under which these different models are empirically distinguishable from the Cournot model. We also investigate empirical issues (measurement error and omitted variables) related to bringing our testable restrictions to data.     

Generalized cointegration: a new concept with an application to health expenditure and health outcomes

We propose a new generalization of the concept of cointegration that allows for the possibility that a set of variables are involved in an unknown nonlinear relationship. Although these variables may be unit-root non-stationary, there exists a nonlinear combination of them that takes account of such non-stationarity. We then introduce an estimation technique that allows us to test for the presence of this generalized cointegration in the absence of knowledge as to the true nonlinear functional form and the full set of regressors. We outline the basic stages of the technique and discuss how the issue of unit-root non-stationarity and cointegration affects each stage of the estimation procedure. We then apply this technique to the relationship between health expenditure and health outcomes, which is an important but controversial issue. A number of studies have found very little or no relationship between the level of health expenditure and outcomes. In econometric terms, if there is such a relationship, then there should exist a cointegrating relationship between these two variables and possibly many others. The problem that arises is that we may be either unable to measure these other variables or that we do not know about them, in which case we may incorrectly find no relationship between health expenditures and outcomes. We then apply the concept of generalized cointegration; we obtain a highly significant relationship between health expenditure and health outcomes.     

Human capital distribution, growth and convergence

This paper studies the dynamic relationship between distribution and endogenous growth in an overlapping generations model with accumulation of human and physical capital. It is shown how human capital can determine a relationship between per capita growth rates and inequality in the distribution of income. Family background effects and spillovers in the transmission of human capital generate dynamics in which aggregate variables depend not only on the stock, but also on the distribution of human capital. The evolution of this distribution over time is then characterized under different assumptions on private returns and the form of the externality in the technology for human capital. Conditions for existence, uniqueness and stability of a constant growth equilibrium with a stationary distribution are derived. Increasing returns, idiosyncratic abilities and the possibility of poverty traps are explicitely characterized in a closed form solution of the equilibrium dynamics, showing the role played by technology and preferences parameters.