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1.
盈余管理存在的根本原因在于投资者与管理层之间的信息不对称。业绩预告作为上市公司未来经营成果、财务状况与现金流量的预测,在很大程度上会影响投资者对上市公司的评估及其投资决策。从业绩预告披露的特征方面出发,研究业绩预告披露与盈余管理之间的关系,包括业绩预告的性质、预告精确度、预告误差分别与盈余管理程度的关系,结果发现:发布业绩预告的公司,盈余管理水平更高。预告精确度以及预告期间与预测当期盈余管理水平正相关,预测误差与盈余管理水平负相关。当消息类型不同的时候,预测的强制性与否以及"变脸"对盈余管理水平的影响不同。结论支持了上市公司财务报告迎合业绩预告披露的说法。  相似文献   

2.
The Effect of Earnings Forecasts on Earnings Management   总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3  
We develop a theory of the association between earnings management and voluntary management forecasts in an agency setting. Earnings management is modeled as a "window dressing" action that can increase the firm's reported accounting earnings but has no impact on the firm's real cash flows. Earnings forecasts are modeled as the manager's communication of the firm's future cash flows. We show that it is easier to prevent the manager from managing earnings if he is asked to forecast earnings. We also show that earnings management is more likely to follow high earnings forecasts than low earnings forecasts. Finally, our analysis shows that shareholders may not find it optimal to prohibit earnings management. Earlier results rationalize earnings management by violating some assumption underlying the Revelation Principle. By contrast, in our model the principal can make full commitments and communication is unrestricted. Nonetheless, earnings management can be beneficial as it reduces the cost of eliciting truthful forecasts.  相似文献   

3.
本文以2006-2013年我国A股上市公司为样本,以企业总部所在省份的省委书记变更作为政治不确定性的衡量,研究了政治不确定性对于管理层自愿业绩预告和预告精确度的影响。结果发现,在官员变更的当年,管理层会更倾向于自愿发布业绩预告,并且业绩预告的精确度也会提高。进一步研究发现,政治不确定性对业绩预告自愿披露倾向和精确度的影响在民营企业、新任官员为外部调任时、分析师跟踪人数更多的公司中更为显著。最后本文也从资本市场反应的角度进行了补充检验,发现市场在政治不确定性更高时对业绩预告的反应也更强烈。本文的发现对于理解政治不确定性的微观影响及管理层自愿业绩预测的作用都有一定的贡献。  相似文献   

4.
In this study we examine the association among confirming management forecasts, stock prices, and analyst expectations. Confirming management forecasts are voluntary disclosures by management that corroborate existing market expectations about future earnings. This study provides evidence that these voluntary disclosures affect stock prices and the dispersion of analyst expectations. Specifically, we find that the market's reaction to confirming forecasts is significantly positive, indicating that benefits accrue to firms that disclose such forecasts. In addition, although we find no significant change in the mean consensus forecasts (a proxy for earnings expectations) around the confirming forecast date, evidence indicates a significant reduction in the mean and median consensus analyst dispersion (a proxy for earnings uncertainty). Finally, we document a positive association between the reduction of dispersion of analysts' forecasts and the magnitude of the stock market response. Overall, the evidence suggests that confirming forecasts reduce uncertainty about future earnings and that investors price this reduction of uncertainty.  相似文献   

5.
Despite efforts by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to encourage corporate disclosure of quantitative management earnings projections, only a small fraction of firms voluntarily do so. Instead of quantitative estimates, a large number of firms choose to disclose qualitative (verbal) assessments of their earnings prospects. This paper is a study of the information characteristics and the usefulness of this alternative form of forecast disclosure to investors. The study examines a sample of qualitative forecast statements from the 1979–1985 period and finds associations between these forecasts and percentage changes in realized earnings per share, the direction of financial analysts' forecast revisions following the disclosure of these forecasts, and abnormal stock returns on the date of their disclosure. These associations are, however, shown to be more significant for negative (bad news) than for positive (good news) forecasts.  相似文献   

6.
7.
Abstract:

In this study, we investigate the trading behavior of institutional investors in China according to management earnings forecasts (MEFs) and earnings announcements (EAs). MEFs are mandatory under the stringent regulatory framework in China. We find evidence that both MEFs and EAs have an effect on the market. However, MEFs have a bigger effect on the market than do EAs. According to a sample of semiannual observations of firms from 2003 to 2008, we find that changes in the stock ownership of institutions are positively associated with EAs but not significantly associated with MEFs. When we further examine the relations between institutional characteristics and trading strategies, we find that growth funds exploit the arbitrage opportunity of MEFs.  相似文献   

8.
管理层发布的盈利预测反映了企业未来的盈利前景,可能会对公司股票价格产生重要影响。作为企业信息最核心的知情者,管理层理应发布较为准确的盈利预测。然而,很多公司盈利预测却与真实盈利存在较大偏差。那么,管理层是否因为自利动机(比如增减持公司股票)而有意发布有偏差的盈利预测呢?本文以2007年至2013年沪深A股上市公司数据为样本,研究发现:当管理层持股变化时,其更可能发布有偏差的盈利预测。进一步检验外部监督作用的调节效应时发现:当监管机构监督、分析师监督或媒体监督力度较强时,管理层持股变化对盈利预测偏差的正向影响较弱。上述发现意味着,主管部门应将目前孤立进行的预测信息监管和内部人交易监管联系起来一并监管。  相似文献   

9.
This paper reports the results of an empirical study of UK analysts' earnings forecasts for 126 firms for the years 1980 and 1981. Six hypotheses regarding the accuracy of these forecasts are tested, with results which both confirm and conflict with prior UK findings. In addition, evidence is found of a greater than generally attributed sensitivity of test results to the measure of accuracy used.  相似文献   

10.
Abstract:  This paper corroborates the finding of prior studies that managers avoid reporting earnings lower than analyst forecasts (i.e., negative earnings surprises) and provides new evidence of actions contributing to this phenomenon. Specifically, we provide empirical evidence of both (1) upward management of reported earnings and (2) downward 'management' of analysts' forecasts to achieve zero and small positive earnings surprises. Further analysis of the components of earnings management suggests that both the operating cash flow and discretionary accruals components of earnings are managed.  相似文献   

11.
12.
本文从外部治理的角度考察了分析师对业绩预告违规的影响及其对监管制度的替代作用。研究结果表明,分析师跟踪可以显著降低上市公司业绩预告违规的概率;进一步控制分析师跟踪规模后发现,有明星分析师跟踪以及来自高声誉券商的分析师数量越多、分析师预测分歧度越低,预测越准确,这种治理作用越显著。但是分析师的监管作用仅在上市公司受监管较弱时有效,对受监管力度较强上市公司的业绩预告违规行为则没有显著影响,表明分析师对业绩预告的治理效应仅在监管力度较弱时发挥作用,成为监管制度的有效替代。本文拓展了我国分析师研究的领域与视角,并为监管部门信息披露制度的制定与执行提供了新的经验证据。  相似文献   

13.
Crowdsourcing—when a task normally performed by employees is outsourced to a large network of people via an open call—is making inroads into the investment research industry. We shed light on this new phenomenon by examining the value of crowdsourced earnings forecasts. Our sample includes 51,012 forecasts provided by Estimize, an open platform that solicits and reports forecasts from over 3,000 contributors. We find that Estimize forecasts are incrementally useful in forecasting earnings and measuring the market's expectations of earnings. Our results are stronger when the number of Estimize contributors is larger, consistent with the benefits of crowdsourcing increasing with the size of the crowd. Finally, Estimize consensus revisions generate significant two‐day size‐adjusted returns. The combined evidence suggests that crowdsourced forecasts are a useful supplementary source of information in capital markets.  相似文献   

14.
中小企业板上市公司从2007年起执行比主板公司更为严格的强制性预告制度,即所有公司需要在第三季度报告中(10月份)对全年的经营业绩进行预告。本文搜集深沪两市A股主板和中小板上市公司在2007年至2013年度发布的首次业绩预告,系统地研究了中小板公司相对主板公司的业绩预告质量。结果表明,无论中小板公司的预期利润相比去年的变化幅度,业绩预告偏差和误差都显著高于主板公司在年度结束后1月份发布的业绩预告,质量更差。相比主板公司在年度结束前10月份发布的业绩预告,中小板公司的业绩预告质量不相伯仲,质量同样低。本文结果表明将主板的强制业绩预告制度推广到所有中小板公司未能得到高质量的业绩预告,也没有规避主板公司过早在10月份发布业绩预告的负面后果。  相似文献   

15.
王克敏  廉鹏 《会计研究》2012,(3):72-77,95
本文研究盈利预测制度由强制性向自愿性披露的变化对首发上市公司盈余管理的影响。研究发现,在控制其他首发上市制度影响条件下,自愿性盈利预测制度使首发公司披露盈利预测的偏好明显下降,盈利预测高估程度明显降低,且激进会计政策选择偏好明显下降,公司盈余管理水平显著降低。研究表明,市场化信息披露制度改革有助于缓解公司盈余管理行为。  相似文献   

16.
We investigate the relation of the board of directors and institutional ownership with the properties of management earnings forecasts. We find that firms with more outside directors and greater institutional ownership are more likely to issue a forecast and are inclined to forecast more frequently. In addition, these forecasts tend to be more specific, accurate and less optimistically biased. These results are robust to changes specification, Granger causality tests, and simultaneous equation analyses. The results are similar in the pre– and post–Regulation Fair Disclosure (Reg FD) eras. Additional analysis suggests that concentrated institutional ownership is negatively associated with forecast properties. This association is less negative in the post–Reg FD environment, which is consistent with Reg FD reducing the ability of firms to privately communicate information to select audiences.  相似文献   

17.
Recent changes to prospectus regulations have generated considerable controversy. While the legally enforceable definition of “required information” may be uncertain, it seems clear that earnings forecasts are expected to play an important role. However, we find that the accuracy of these forecasts is questionable, as are many of the explanations offered for differences with the actual results. This calls into question the methods used for estimating future earnings and, ultimately, the usefulness of such forecasts. Laws relating to liability for prospectus information make this an issue of some concern for investors, as well as accountants and other professional advisers.  相似文献   

18.
This paper investigates the rationality of security analysts' forecasts. The forecasts of analysts participating in Lynch, Jones, and Ryan's Institutional Brokers Estimate System (I/BE/S) data base are evaluated relative to past values of their own forecast errors, past values of forecasted earnings per share, and quarterly percentage changes in publicly available macroeconomic and financial time series. The publicly available series include the consumer price index, unemployment rate, oil prices, stock prices, gross national product, and corporate profits. The authors conduct a generalized orthogonality test and include only information available to analysts at the time the forecasts are made. The empirical results reject analyst forecast rationality, but not without exception.  相似文献   

19.
This study examines the effect of the degree of association between current earnings and expected future earnings on the relative importance of earnings and book value for explaining equity price. Consensus analysts forecasts of one-year-ahead earnings are used to proxy for expected future earnings and are compared to reported current earnings to measure the degree of the association. We find that the value-relevance of current earnings negatively correlates with the extent to which consensus analysts forecasts deviate from current earnings. We also find that the incremental explanatory power of book value for equity price positively correlates with this measure. These results remain robust after controlling for factors known to be affecting the value-relevance of earnings such as negative earnings and the earnings-to-book ratio. Our results also show that this analysts' forecast-based measure of `earnings persistence' dominates historical earnings variance in explaining cross-sectional variations in the value-relevance of earnings and book value.  相似文献   

20.
Abstract:   This study examines the role of financial analysts in equity valuation in Japan by comparing the relevance of financial analysts' earnings forecasts, over financial statement information, to investors' decisions. We find that the value‐relevance of a set of accounting variables is very modest, but the incremental contribution of analysts' forecasts is very significant. This is in line with the expectation that the skill and expertise of analysts are more valuable in markets with poor financial disclosure, such as Japan. We also find that the importance of the financial statements increases over time while the importance of the analysts' forecasts does not change. We also provide evidence of the effect of Japanese corporate groupings, keiretsu, on the informativeness of accounting signals and earnings forecasts. The results show that the contribution of accounting variables to valuation is lower for keiretsu firms, which supports the exclusionary hypothesis that companies which are a part of keiretsu, disclose less information than do non‐keiretsu companies. The analysts' forecasts are equally important for investors in both types of firms.  相似文献   

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