A MODEL OF SUPPLY RESPONSE IN THE AUSTRALIAN ORANGE GROWING INDUSTRY*

A model of the Australian orange growing industry to explain changes in plantings, removals, the number and age composition of trees and orange production is developed and estimated. Most of the variation in plantings is explained by the expected profitability of growing oranges, the current stocks of bearing and nonbearing trees, and removals of trees last year. Estimates of the elasticities of response of plantings and production to price changes are low and there are long time lags. An illustrative application of the model projects future developments in the industry for alternative assumptions about the profitability of growing oranges.     

EXPORT SUPPLY RESPONSE OF THE AUSTRALIAN CITRUS INDUSTRY*

A model of export supply response of the Australian citrus industry is developed and estimated using cointegration and error correction techniques and quarterly data for the period 1983 to 1993. The estimates suggest that, even in the long run, the supply of citrus exports is inelastic with respect to relative price. The results also show that the adjustment of export supply to changes in relative price is not instantaneous, the domestic production capacity has a significant positive impact on export supply, and export supply in the June quarter in each year is significantly lower than in other quarters.     

SUPPLY RESPONSE IN THE AUSTRALIAN SHEEP INDUSTRY: A PROFIT FUNCTION APPROACH*

Profit function models for the three major regions in which the Australian sheep industry operates are specified and estimated. The supply response elasticity estimates are made using a normalised quadratic functional form and time series cross-sectional data. Elasticity estimates, together with their confidence intervals, are presented for the pastoral, wheat-sheep and high rainfall zones. In general, the supply response elasticity estimates derived in this study are lower than those previously reported for studies in which little or no account has been taken of the multi-product nature of Australian agriculture.     

SUPPLY RESPONSE IN THE AUSTRALIAN SHEEP INDUSTRY: A CASE FOR DISAGGREGATION AND DYNAMICS*

Microeconomic capital goods theory was utilised to provide a theoretical framework on which a dynamic econometric model was based. Econometric procedures were then employed in an analysis of sheep producers' decision making regarding the annual supplies of wool, lamb and mutton, and annual changes in the inventory levels of sheep, lambs and ewes maintained for breeding purposes. Estimates show that wool prices provide the long-run stimulus for increases and decreases in the sheep flock while mutton and lamb prices are responsible for short-run changes in flock composition. Substitution between sheep and beef cattle is of considerable importance although no significant substitution between sheep and cropping could be found. Seasonal conditions proved to be an important short-run supply shifter, affecting both numbers and composition of the sheep flock.     

RATIONAL EXPECTATIONS IN THE AUSTRALIAN WOOL INDUSTRY

The process by which producers form expectations has implications for model building and policy analysis. An econometric model of the Australian wool market is estimated. It is shown that the rational expectations hypothesis is not inconsistent with the data for both the period before the floor price scheme was implemented and since that date. This finding has important implications, since it has been shown that the welfare gains from stabilisation are small if producers form rational expectations.     

SUPPLY RESPONSES IN CROP AND LIVESTOCK PRODUCTION

This paper is concerned with regression models of time series data, where the data relate to market level aggregates not to individual farms or groups of farms. It presents ideas and preliminary explorations rather than final results. Some aspects of Nerlove's agricultural supply response model are examined, and some conceptual and practical problems discussed. Two general models are then proposed, one for annual crops and one for livestock products. In the time available little empirical work could be undertaken, so that the usefulness, or otherwise, of the thoughts and models presented rests on rather little evidence.     

INPUTS,OUTPUTS AND PRODUCTIVITY CHANGE IN THE AUSTRALIAN SHEEP INDUSTRY

Tornqvist quantity indexes of output and input are computed for the period 1952/53 to 1976/77 from Australian Sheep Industry Survey data. The computation includes estimating the annual service flow from durable inputs. Total productivity in the sheep industry is estimated to have increased by 2.9 per cent per annum during this 25-year period. While the ratio of capital employed per unit of labour has increased, materials, services and livestock have been the inputs for which the quantity used has increased most rapidly. On the output side, there has been a move towards greater diversification with both crop and cattle enterprises on 'sheep properties' increasing in relative importance.     

PRODUCTION STRUCTURE AND THE AUSTRALIAN SAWMILLING INDUSTRY*

This paper examines the production structure of the Australian sawmilling sector over the period 1950-51 to 1984-85 using a translog cost function. The results show that the sawmilling industry is best represented by a production function which does not have any restrictions on functional form. Inputs, including capital, labour, materials and energy, are generally found to substitutable for one another, although the degree of substitutability is small. There have been economies of scale in the Australian sawmilling industry, and technological change has been capital and energy-using, and labour and materials-saving.     

论我国南珠产业的现状、问题及对策

在我国的珍珠产业中,南珠具有举足轻重的地位。改革开放以来,南珠产业得到了飞速发展,同时也面临着技术落后、管理乏力、质量下降等问题。本文分析了南珠产业的发展过程、现状及存在的问题,提出了可持续发展的对策。     

EXITS FROM THE AUSTRALIAN DAIRY INDUSTRY CAUSES AND PREDICTIONS

An analysis of data from Bureau of Agricultural Economics surveys established that farms that left the dairy industry in the 1970s were generally smaller than average, less profitable, and more likely to be those from which cream was still being delivered in cans. In addition, it was found that the probability of exit seemed to be little affected by movements in the relative prices of dairy products and beef. Predictive models which should prove useful in estimating future rates of exit from dairying were derived. Use of one of the models on 1979–80 data suggests the exit rate from the industry should be easing.     

SUPPLY RESPONSE OF AUSTRALIAN WHEAT GROWERS

Alternative specifications of models of the supply response of Australian wheat growers and their economic implications are considered in terms of the existence and nature of production lags, and the choice between expected prices and expected gross returns as the preferred explanator of producers' response to changing economic conditions. The analysis indicates that there are lags which are due primarily to the difficulties and costs of rapid adjustment rather than to the time required to revise expectations. The statistical results were similar for the alternative specifications of gross margins and prices as the economic decision variables. However, the price elasticities derived using the gross margins specification were about a third of those using the prices specification. The gross margins specification yielded additional information in the form of yield and input cost elasticities.     

THE STABILIZATION AND DISTRIBUTION EFFECTS OF THE AUSTRALIAN WHEAT INDUSTRY STABILIZATION SCHEME

The wheat stabilisation scheme has been operating for almost two decades. In this article quantitative estimates are made of the effects of the scheme upon the stability of prices and incomes and the distribution of income over the period 1948-49 to 1965-66.     

THE ELASTICITY OF AGGREGATE AUSTRALIAN AGRICULTURAL SUPPLY: ESTIMATES AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS

Annual time series data for the period 1950-51 through 1975-76 are used to estimate the price elasticity of aggregate Australian agricultural supply using two methods. The short-run elasticity is estimated to be highly inelastic but it has been increasing through time. The preferred estimate of the long-run elasticity is in the relatively inelastic range and it has also been increasing through time. Some implications of these results for intersectoral resource flows and compensatory assistance, the cost-price squeeze, the effects of the mineral boom and monetary policy are discussed.     

THE IMPACT OF FARM AND PROCESSING RESEARCH ON THE AUSTRALIAN WOOL INDUSTRY*

An equilibrium displacement model of the world wool top industry is used to estimate the returns to the Australian wool industry from productivity improvements in farm production, in top making and in textile manufacturing. The returns to the industry from these different types of research and development are sensitive to the extent of substitution possibilities between Australian wool and other inputs used by the wool processing and textile industries but it appears that research resources have to be much more efficient in off-farm activities for the Australian wool industry to receive benefits similar to those from farm research activities.     

SUPPLY RESPONSE IN THE AUSTRALIAN EXTENSIVE LIVESTOCK AND CROPPING INDUSTRIES: A STUDY OF INTENTIONS AND EXPECTATIONS*

Most of the supply elasticity estimates reported for Australian agriculture are derived from equations estimated using time series data and incorporating ad hoc assumptions about price expectations. The authors' aim is to compare previously obtained supply elasticity estimates with those derived using theoretically more acceptable survey data on both producers' intentions and price expectations. Surveys were conducted in three regions in N.S.W., namely, the Southern Tablelands, the South-West Slopes and a portion of the Western Division centred on Cobar. The results of the research show that there are no major differences between the supply elasticities derived using the traditional time series approach and those obtained using the survey data. This finding is reassuring, given the cost of collecting survey data.     

REGIONAL SPECIALISATION IN THE AGRICULTURAL INDUSTRY

Data for Scotland are used to show how some farm types are becoming locationally more dispersed while others become more localised in those regions with which they have a traditional association. The process leading to a more specialised regional farm type structure is complex and varies in character from region to region. The differential movement into and out of the production of certain products, particularly beef, lies at the centre of the process. The regional specialisation of production has implications for the economic stability of farm economies and the environment.     

AGGREGATING COMPETITIVE BEHAVIOR IN THE FOOD INDUSTRY

The inclusion of the above indices into one competitive rating index gives us a tool which would allow economists to study the relative position of each firm hi a national, regional or local environment. The type of competition can be classified. The stages that various markets pass through as markets develop in their use of price and non-price competition can be reviewed. Weighted indices could also be evaluated, i.e., if an index of advertising and promotion were included, it would be possible to weight this index by market share to gauge the possible impact on competitive intensity.
The use of the many sub-indices would facilitate decisions by management and management consultants, in regard to rectifying weaknesses which exist in the competitive tactics of the individual firm. It would thus increase the ability of the firm to initiate countermoves and thus introduce a stronger competitive tone into the market place [5, pp. 471–476].
A careful and continuing analysis of the sub-indices by policy makers would enable them to initiate control procedures without the "hue and cry" of a Royal Commission.