A MODEL OF SUPPLY RESPONSE IN THE AUSTRALIAN ORANGE GROWING INDUSTRY*

A model of the Australian orange growing industry to explain changes in plantings, removals, the number and age composition of trees and orange production is developed and estimated. Most of the variation in plantings is explained by the expected profitability of growing oranges, the current stocks of bearing and nonbearing trees, and removals of trees last year. Estimates of the elasticities of response of plantings and production to price changes are low and there are long time lags. An illustrative application of the model projects future developments in the industry for alternative assumptions about the profitability of growing oranges.     

EXPORT SUPPLY RESPONSE OF THE AUSTRALIAN CITRUS INDUSTRY*

A model of export supply response of the Australian citrus industry is developed and estimated using cointegration and error correction techniques and quarterly data for the period 1983 to 1993. The estimates suggest that, even in the long run, the supply of citrus exports is inelastic with respect to relative price. The results also show that the adjustment of export supply to changes in relative price is not instantaneous, the domestic production capacity has a significant positive impact on export supply, and export supply in the June quarter in each year is significantly lower than in other quarters.     

SUPPLY RESPONSE IN THE AUSTRALIAN SHEEP INDUSTRY: A PROFIT FUNCTION APPROACH*

Profit function models for the three major regions in which the Australian sheep industry operates are specified and estimated. The supply response elasticity estimates are made using a normalised quadratic functional form and time series cross-sectional data. Elasticity estimates, together with their confidence intervals, are presented for the pastoral, wheat-sheep and high rainfall zones. In general, the supply response elasticity estimates derived in this study are lower than those previously reported for studies in which little or no account has been taken of the multi-product nature of Australian agriculture.     

SUPPLY RESPONSE IN THE AUSTRALIAN SHEEP INDUSTRY: A CASE FOR DISAGGREGATION AND DYNAMICS*

Microeconomic capital goods theory was utilised to provide a theoretical framework on which a dynamic econometric model was based. Econometric procedures were then employed in an analysis of sheep producers' decision making regarding the annual supplies of wool, lamb and mutton, and annual changes in the inventory levels of sheep, lambs and ewes maintained for breeding purposes. Estimates show that wool prices provide the long-run stimulus for increases and decreases in the sheep flock while mutton and lamb prices are responsible for short-run changes in flock composition. Substitution between sheep and beef cattle is of considerable importance although no significant substitution between sheep and cropping could be found. Seasonal conditions proved to be an important short-run supply shifter, affecting both numbers and composition of the sheep flock.     

RATIONAL EXPECTATIONS IN THE AUSTRALIAN WOOL INDUSTRY

The process by which producers form expectations has implications for model building and policy analysis. An econometric model of the Australian wool market is estimated. It is shown that the rational expectations hypothesis is not inconsistent with the data for both the period before the floor price scheme was implemented and since that date. This finding has important implications, since it has been shown that the welfare gains from stabilisation are small if producers form rational expectations.     

SUPPLY RESPONSES IN CROP AND LIVESTOCK PRODUCTION

This paper is concerned with regression models of time series data, where the data relate to market level aggregates not to individual farms or groups of farms. It presents ideas and preliminary explorations rather than final results. Some aspects of Nerlove's agricultural supply response model are examined, and some conceptual and practical problems discussed. Two general models are then proposed, one for annual crops and one for livestock products. In the time available little empirical work could be undertaken, so that the usefulness, or otherwise, of the thoughts and models presented rests on rather little evidence.     

INPUTS,OUTPUTS AND PRODUCTIVITY CHANGE IN THE AUSTRALIAN SHEEP INDUSTRY

Tornqvist quantity indexes of output and input are computed for the period 1952/53 to 1976/77 from Australian Sheep Industry Survey data. The computation includes estimating the annual service flow from durable inputs. Total productivity in the sheep industry is estimated to have increased by 2.9 per cent per annum during this 25-year period. While the ratio of capital employed per unit of labour has increased, materials, services and livestock have been the inputs for which the quantity used has increased most rapidly. On the output side, there has been a move towards greater diversification with both crop and cattle enterprises on 'sheep properties' increasing in relative importance.     

甘肃省马铃薯产业发展研究

马铃薯产业是甘肃农业和农村经济发展的支柱产业,该文通过对甘肃省马铃薯产业发展现状、存在问题的全面分析,提出了甘肃省下一步发展马铃薯产业的对策是完善良繁体系,提高脱毒种薯和良种应用率;扶持脱毒种薯原种扩繁基地建设;对脱毒马铃薯良种繁育推广实行补贴;支持马铃薯良种贮藏设施建设;建立种薯质量监测体系;加快标准化生产基地建设,提高单产水平;扶持大型龙头企业;加强产品研发;培育中介组织;创建知名品牌,实施品牌战略。     

天水市中药材产业供给侧改革之路的思考

[目的]为解决中药材套种立体栽培模式不完善,土地资源利用不充分,植株空间分布不合理的问题,针对我市林缘区面积较大的实际,按照"调结构、保质量、降成本、补短板、创品牌"的总体要求,选择重楼、五味子、猪苓、天麻4种中药材,在中药材立体仿生栽培技术方面进行研究,以期实现天水市中药材由生产大市向产业强市转变,促进农业增效、农民增收。[方法]采取架上五味子,架下重楼,地下猪苓(天麻)的立体仿生种植模式,通过五味子、重楼、猪苓(天麻)立体仿生栽培技术能够实现了优势互补,提高了土地利用率,便于抚育管理,降低了生产经营成本,提高了劳动生产率,实现了同一地块空间资源利用,提高了单位面积的经济效益。[结果]通过5年试验,从产量角度看模式Ⅱ(五味子+重楼+天麻)最优,其次是模式Ⅲ(五味子+重楼+天麻+猪苓);从经济效益看模式Ⅰ(五味子+重楼+猪苓)最好,其次是模式Ⅲ。[结论]3种模式均较单种的收益有大幅度提高。     

PRODUCTION STRUCTURE AND THE AUSTRALIAN SAWMILLING INDUSTRY*

This paper examines the production structure of the Australian sawmilling sector over the period 1950-51 to 1984-85 using a translog cost function. The results show that the sawmilling industry is best represented by a production function which does not have any restrictions on functional form. Inputs, including capital, labour, materials and energy, are generally found to substitutable for one another, although the degree of substitutability is small. There have been economies of scale in the Australian sawmilling industry, and technological change has been capital and energy-using, and labour and materials-saving.     

论我国南珠产业的现状、问题及对策

在我国的珍珠产业中,南珠具有举足轻重的地位。改革开放以来,南珠产业得到了飞速发展,同时也面临着技术落后、管理乏力、质量下降等问题。本文分析了南珠产业的发展过程、现状及存在的问题,提出了可持续发展的对策。     

EXITS FROM THE AUSTRALIAN DAIRY INDUSTRY CAUSES AND PREDICTIONS

An analysis of data from Bureau of Agricultural Economics surveys established that farms that left the dairy industry in the 1970s were generally smaller than average, less profitable, and more likely to be those from which cream was still being delivered in cans. In addition, it was found that the probability of exit seemed to be little affected by movements in the relative prices of dairy products and beef. Predictive models which should prove useful in estimating future rates of exit from dairying were derived. Use of one of the models on 1979–80 data suggests the exit rate from the industry should be easing.     

供给侧结构性改革推进四川省玉米产业转型发展策略

[目的]随着中国粮食产量的"十二连增",国内农业生产的主要矛盾也逐步由总量不足转向结构性矛盾,其中玉米产业面临的矛盾尤为突出,玉米产业结构调整是我国农业供给侧结构性改革推进中的首要任务。四川既是全国玉米生产的重要省份,也是玉米消费大省,如何推进玉米产业供给侧结构性改革、实现产业转型发展还有待于思考。[方法]文章从供需平衡、供给结构、供给效益和供给效率4个角度分析了四川玉米产业供给侧的特征,同时从要素供给、社会化服务和产业链3个方面分析了影响四川玉米产业发展的制约因素。[结果]四川玉米消费结构呈现多元变化,从口粮消费为主转变为以饲料、工业加工消费为主;草食畜牧业发展迅速,饲用作物需求量增大;农业科技支撑力度明显,玉米育种成就突出。[结论]提出从优化品种结构、推行种养循环、培育新型经营主体、拓展产业链等方面推进四川玉米产业的转型升级。     

SUPPLY RESPONSE OF AUSTRALIAN WHEAT GROWERS

Alternative specifications of models of the supply response of Australian wheat growers and their economic implications are considered in terms of the existence and nature of production lags, and the choice between expected prices and expected gross returns as the preferred explanator of producers' response to changing economic conditions. The analysis indicates that there are lags which are due primarily to the difficulties and costs of rapid adjustment rather than to the time required to revise expectations. The statistical results were similar for the alternative specifications of gross margins and prices as the economic decision variables. However, the price elasticities derived using the gross margins specification were about a third of those using the prices specification. The gross margins specification yielded additional information in the form of yield and input cost elasticities.     

THE STABILIZATION AND DISTRIBUTION EFFECTS OF THE AUSTRALIAN WHEAT INDUSTRY STABILIZATION SCHEME

The wheat stabilisation scheme has been operating for almost two decades. In this article quantitative estimates are made of the effects of the scheme upon the stability of prices and incomes and the distribution of income over the period 1948-49 to 1965-66.     

THE ELASTICITY OF AGGREGATE AUSTRALIAN AGRICULTURAL SUPPLY: ESTIMATES AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS

Annual time series data for the period 1950-51 through 1975-76 are used to estimate the price elasticity of aggregate Australian agricultural supply using two methods. The short-run elasticity is estimated to be highly inelastic but it has been increasing through time. The preferred estimate of the long-run elasticity is in the relatively inelastic range and it has also been increasing through time. Some implications of these results for intersectoral resource flows and compensatory assistance, the cost-price squeeze, the effects of the mineral boom and monetary policy are discussed.     

THE IMPACT OF FARM AND PROCESSING RESEARCH ON THE AUSTRALIAN WOOL INDUSTRY*

An equilibrium displacement model of the world wool top industry is used to estimate the returns to the Australian wool industry from productivity improvements in farm production, in top making and in textile manufacturing. The returns to the industry from these different types of research and development are sensitive to the extent of substitution possibilities between Australian wool and other inputs used by the wool processing and textile industries but it appears that research resources have to be much more efficient in off-farm activities for the Australian wool industry to receive benefits similar to those from farm research activities.     

马铃薯中长期供求平衡研究

文章首先根据1982~2012年的马铃薯产量和消费量的数据,对马铃薯生产和消费的长期趋势及其结构进行了分析:1982~2011年,马铃薯总产量和总消费量基本保持同步变化,除2006年总产量超过总消费量1 885万t之外,其余年份总产量和总消费量的差额都在250万t之内,从比例上看,供求缺口在多数年份不到总产量或总消费量的3%,我国马铃薯基本是国内自产自销,进出口的总量都不大。其次,对1982~2012年马铃薯总产量、总消费量数据做自相关与偏自相关分析,并做一阶差分,采用传统时间序列分析和移动平均(ARMA)模型相结合,建立马铃薯总产量和总消费量的时间序列模型;进而采用时间序列模型,对马铃薯的中长期生产和消费进行了预测:马铃薯供给基本平衡,供给略大于需求,供求之间的差额占总量的比例非常小,约为2%。2020年,马铃薯总消费量为1.0 900亿t,马铃薯总产量为1.1 125亿t,供给大于需求225万t;2030年,马铃薯的总产量为1.3 585亿t,马铃薯的总消费量为1.3 280亿t,供给大于需求305万t。