我国银行系消费金融公司发展研究

本文从宏观层面通过国内外经济指标数据论证了消费金融对经济增长的作用。通过银监局统计的持牌消费金融公司的资产规模及不良率揭示了消费金融行业机遇与危机并存的现状。本文将消费金融行业的参与者大致分为银行系、产业系、大型电商系、平台系四类,重点对银行系消费金融公司进行剖析,分析了银行系消费金融公司的优势及面临的问题,并对其发展提出建设性意见。     

我国消费金融公司发展问题探讨

隧着我国的经济增长和内需扩大,消费金融已经成为影响我国经济持续健康发展的重要因素.本文分析了我国发展消费金融公司的重要意义,以及我国消费金融公司的发展现状、特点及面临的问题,进而提出促进我国消费金融公司发展的若于建议.     

消费金融公司资本补充现状及展望

消费金融的快速发展对于拉动内需、推动供给侧改革、促进经济转型具有重要意义。搭建科学合理的资本补充架构是实现有效、合规支持消费金融业务持续健康发展,践行普惠金融,快速提升行业地位的关键所在。本文基于银行系消费金融公司视角,分析消费金融公司资本补充现状,探讨消费金融公司资本补充路径及发展前景。     

对消费金融公司试点的冷思考

新近我国推出的旨在扩大内需、促进经济可持续增长的消费金融公司试点措施,市场给予了积极的反映。本文认为,鉴于消费金融公司信用消费贷款模式、定位中低端客户等因素的存在,在目前我国信用体系不健全的情况下,消费金融公司短期内很难实现预期的目标。因而,需有针对性地健全消费金融公司政策运作机制、有意识地培育信用客户群体,以提升消费金融公司的运作效率,实现扩大内需的目的。     

要闻速览

《消费金融公司试点管理办法》正式颁布 为促进消费需求增长,增强消费对经济发展的拉动作用,2009年8月13日,银监会正式颁布《消费金融公司试点管理办法》。与5月份出台的征求意见稿相比,本次颁布的管理办法中,消费金融公司的出资人条件适度放宽。消费金融公司的成立,不仅有利于扩大内需,也有利于填补“地下金融”与银行体系之间的断层,完善目前的国内金融服务体系。     

银行系消费金融公司发展之困

正近期,根据银监会批复,兴业银行获准在泉州市筹建兴业消费金融股份公司,这是今年第二家获批的银行系消费金融公司。从4年前开始消费金融试点以来,包括最先开展试点的北京银行、中国银行、成都银行旗下的消费金融公司,目前还有招商银行、湖北银行、徽商银行、重庆银行、西安银行等消费金融公司也都在筹备中。为什么银行都愿意参股消费金融公司?一方面是受到相关政策的鼓     

论信用消费条件下的金融创新

信用消费是有效发挥消费对经济增长的拉动作用、促进经济平稳较快增长和可持续发展的重要手段,但目前我国信用消费的发展还受到一定的制约.本文结合我同消费金融公司的发展状况及其面临的问题,提出强化信贷立法和征信体系建设、加强政策引导和消费者培育将有助于发挥信用消费对经济的提振作用.     

消费金融公司的设立对居民消费支出的影响研究——基于面板数据的实证研究

为了以消费增长推动经济的发展,我国于2010年先后在北京、上海、天津、四川四个地区设立了消费金融公司。论文以我国15个地区2003年到2012年的面板数据为样本,研究了消费金融公司的设立对我国居民的消费支出产生的影响。建立模型时,首先对15个省市总体情况进行研究,然后重点对四个消费金融公司行政总部所在民消地的居民消费支出情况进行研究。结果发现,不管是全国范围内还是以上四个地区。都不能得出居民的消费支出受消费金融公司的影响而增加的结论。因此,为更好地发挥其作用,我国消费金融公司还需进一步扩大经营规模与影响力。     

浅议河南郑州商户商圈及我行商户拓展对策

近年来,随着传统消费升级和新型消费崛起,消费对我国经济增长的贡献率已超过七成,消费经济成为了国民经济增长的第一驱动力。在互联网经济大背景下,银行作为收单市场的主力军,机遇与挑战并存。基于对实际情况的研究,本文主要分析了郑州地区主要商圈及专业市场的具体特点,并有针对性地提出了发展策略及建议。     

消费金融公司不只“看上去很美”

在经济危机背景下,中国经济亟须由投资型拉动转向消费型拉动已是各界共识。5月12日,中国银监会下发了《消费金融公司试点管理办法》,并拟在北京、天津、上海、成都率先设立消费金融公司的试点,给启动消费再添一剂良方。有人用“恰逢其时”来形容消费金融公司试点的推出时机。然而,新事物的产生总难免吸引更多的关注：金融消费公司如何开局？会不会成为中国版的“次贷”？如何发挥其转变经济增长方式的作用？     

Almanac of anticipations: The age of affluence—of anticipation—of anxiety—of automation—of discontinuity—of longing—of overkill—of space exploration

With this survey of developments in the futures field since 1945, I.F. Clarke completes his present series for Futures. He makes two major points: that forecasting techniques have become essential tools in the management of change; and that nuclear weapons and ecological problems have added a moral dimension to the study of the future. In the next issue of Futures he will start a new series on the range of future-thinking in the USA, from the expectations of the first settlers to the Star Wars programme.     

基金公司经营融资融券业务的问题审视

融资融券业务正式运营已经开展,为证券市场带来了革命性的改革,作为证券市场的一大主体,基金公司面对融资融券也迎来了新的发展方向和挑战,本文从融资融券业务的运行机制入手,分析了基金公司融资融券的新契机,并对其即将面临的问题进行审视和剖析,进而提出策略建议.     

对基层人民银行科技工作的几点建议

银监会分设后,人民银行将专司货币政策、金融稳定、金融服务三大职能。作为人民银行的分支机构,基层人民银行的工作重心也将从金融监管调整到这三大职能上来。人民银行的科技部门,就要积极运用科技手段,为人民银行履行新的职能发挥“服务、支持、促进、发展”的作用。一、围绕三大职能搭建五大平台经过“六五打基础、七五作准备、八五大发展”几个阶段后,人民银行相继实现了核算电算化、清算网络化和办公信息化。特别是近一两年来,陆续开通了大额支付系统、信贷登记咨询系统、会计四集中系统、金融信息服务网站等系统,人民银行信息化水平又…     

The Usefulness of Measures of Consistency of Discretionary Components of Accruals in the Detection of Earnings Management

Abstract:  Prior research has shown the prevalence of measurement error in models used to estimate aggregate discretionary accruals. In these models, the incremental information content of the various components of accruals is ignored. Limited prior research and data gathered from firms under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) litigation indicate that managers use either one or more than one component of accruals simultaneously, in a consistent way to manipulate bottom-line earnings in a given direction. I propose two measures that capture the consistency between the discretionary components of accruals and test their significance in earnings management (EM) detection in firms that have artificially added accrual manipulation and firms that were targeted by the SEC for accrual manipulation. There is evidence that this information is incrementally useful in detecting EM. This finding paves the way for improvements in the discretionary accruals measure by including consistency information from the components of aggregate accruals.     

社会主义所有制形式的改革、完善与共产党执政能力的提高

在中国,所有制形式的调整、改革与完善,先进生产力的发展,党的执政能力建设,是社会主义建设过程中密切结合在一起的三个不同层面的发展关系.应在相互促进和共同提高中促进社会的和谐发展,保证社会主义现代化建设战略目标的顺利实现.     

Summary of Results of Survey of Seminar Attendees

Abstract

The Society of Actuaries undertook a three-phase research project on mortality improvement in the three NAFTA countries: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. Phase 1 consisted of a literature review of papers on projecting mortality levels in the future and a study of the trend in mortality improvement during this century. Phase 2 consisted of a discussion of different facets of modeling mortality rates at a seminar attended by 79 experts (actuaries, demographers, economists, and medical researchers) representing different countries. The last session of the seminar consisted of the completion of a survey by the attendees to obtain input for Phase 3, which would analyze the impact of mortality improvement on the social security system of each country. This paper summarizes the results of the survey.

The survey results illustrate the difficulty in forecasting mortality levels, because the effects of many factors that could have significant impact on mortality rates are unknown. This suggests the need for dynamic forecasting, which allows for the possibility of random shocks. A majority of the survey respondents believe that stochastic forecasting models, despite their complexity, have significant potential to add value. Respondents also believe that both historical data and cause-specific mortality forecasts are useful as input and also in validating forecasts of the aggregate levels of mortality. The challenge is to develop more sophisticated forecasting models to produce results that are relatively easy to interpret and to communicate these results to the desired audiences, including the public and policymakers.

The survey results suggest that the aggregate effect of lifestyle changes, medical advances, diseases, catastrophe, and physical environmental changes is an increase in life span. However, there is much uncertainty about the future. Respondents expect that beyond the year 2020 the mean annual rate of reduction in mortality for males age 65 and over will average about 0.58% for Canada, 0.76% for Mexico, and 0.67% for the U.S. The results for the female age 65 and over population are 0.64%, 0.83%, and 0.70%, respectively. The age 65 and over population is expected to see larger percentage reductions in mortality than the 0–14 and 15–64 populations. The reductions in male and female mortality will be ultimately the same, and the mortality levels in the three countries will ultimately converge, although differences may persist for decades.     

Separation of Unit of Account from Medium of Exchange

The separation of a unit of account (UoA) from a medium of exchange (MoE) in the commodity–money system is investigated by considering explicitly a seller's choice of UoA in terms of either an MoE or a unit of metal weight. If the likelihood of debasement of an MoE and its rate are high enough, the price is posted in terms of a unit of metal weight rather than an MoE. Interestingly, this MoE–UoA separated equilibrium yields the flexible nominal price, whereas an MoE–UoA integrated equilibrium yields the sticky one. This implies the nominal price rigidity in the fiat‐money system where MoE and UoA are integrated.     

银行软件项目外包管理分析

一、引言随着国民经济的不断发展,银行业务与外部企业的联系越来越密切。银行正逐步成为现代经济活动的中心,作为数据处理核心的银行业务应用也越来越大型化、越来越复杂化,因此许多银行也把软件项目逐步由原来的自主开发转变为与公司合作的方式,或直接外包开发的方式,银行本身的技术人员也逐步由开发转向项目管理。二、项目外包的分类银行项目的外包有以下几种情况:①部分子系统外包,有时由于银行的软件项目太大,单靠银行自身的开发力量基本无法在预定的时间内完成项目,只好把相对独立的部分外包;②直接购买软件公司的成熟产品,有些金融软…     

银行管理信息平台建设发展的思考

一、目前国内银行IT发展现状及面临的问题 银行数据集中工作的完成,标志着银行的业务由电子化建设阶段转入信息化建设阶段.一方面银行数据的集中提供了丰富全面的基础数据,面对日益庞大的数据源,如何将数字转化为对银行有用的信息,并从中发现知识,为银行的经营决策提供支持,是摆在银行IT人员面前的一个亟待解决的问题.另一方面用户对银行信息的需求日益增长,如果银行没有一套完整、实用的信息管理系统,将对业务发展非常不利.南京爱立信公司倒戈花旗银行事件曾经轰动一时,其中一个重要原因就是中国本地银行不能满足爱立信全球总部对南京爱立信公司的要求:每周财务上报和每天贷款限额管理.这一事件为中国商业银行的未来发展敲响了警钟,如果不加快管理信息系统的开发,迅速提升业务管理水平,类似的事件还会接连不断地发生,并最终导致国内商业银行在同国外商业银行的竞争中全面溃败.     

Properties of time-series estimates of degree of leverage measures

Empirical studies suggest that time-series regression estimates of the degrees of operating and financial leverage have a tendency to produce measures less than one. According to ex ante theory, these measures should be greater than one for firms operating above the breakeven point. There have also been suggestions that the biases in these estimates may be attributable to an underlying increase in unit sales. This work presents evidence that these counter-intuitive measures are produced by changes in the firm's operating parameters (unit price, variable cost, fixed cost and interest payments). It further suggests that attempts to control for the underlying change in unit sales substantially increase the volatility of predicted estimates.