The effects of location and sectoral components of economic growth on poverty: Evidence from Indonesia

In this paper, we investigate the relationship between economic growth and poverty reduction by differentiating growth and poverty into their sectoral composition and urban–rural location using data from Indonesia. We find that rural services growth reduces poverty in all sectors and locations. However, urban services growth has the largest effect on poverty in most sectors. Finally, we also find that rural agriculture growth strongly reduces poverty in rural areas, the largest contributor to poverty in Indonesia. This implies that while agriculture growth in rural areas still plays a major role in reducing poverty, policies that enable strong growth in the services sector in both urban and rural areas would expedite poverty reduction.     

Poverty, Growth, and Redistribution: a Study of Iran

The paper examines changes in the extent of poverty in Iran in the period 1983 to 1993. More specifically, it investigates the contributions of growth and redistribution factors to changes in poverty over this period of ten years. The analysis is based on household‐level data relating to three Household Income and Expenditures Surveys of 1983, 1988, and 1993. The study reveals that the extent of poverty in the rural sector declined slightly, whereas in the urban sector it increased significantly. Decomposition of changes in poverty into growth and redistribution components indicates that in each sector the redistribution component was positive, implying that the deterioration of income inequality contributed to the worsening of poverty. The growth component, however, affected the two sectors differently: it contributed to a reduction in poverty in rural areas and an increase in urban areas.     

医疗保险与城乡反贫困:1989-2006

文章利用中国健康与营养调查(CHNS)数据,估计了1989-2006年医疗保险对中国城乡家庭的反贫困效应。结果发现:发生灾难性卫生支出的城乡家庭比例较高,最穷的群体其医疗费用超过收入的比例增加,医疗保险对减少收入不平等只起到微弱作用。TIP贫困曲线表明,近几年,医疗保险补偿后,城乡患病家庭的贫困并没有减轻,医疗保险在减少贫困上的作用很小。分析贫困特征的多元回归模型显示,家庭成员数量、教育程度、抚养比率、参保人数等都影响了贫困,而条件多元回归模型则显示,医疗保险对贫困的变动没有影响。     

中国扶贫资金支出结构的动态减贫效果研究

文章从理论上总结扶贫资金支出对农村贫困的减贫效果,构建扶贫资金支出与农村贫困的理论分析框架,提出扶贫资金对农村贫困发生率、农村贫困深度、农村贫困强度具有正向减贫效果的研究假设,以宏观调查数据度量我国农村贫困程度,揭示我国农村贫困的变化趋势,并运用脉冲响应函数分析方法,对扶贫资金支出结构的动态减贫效果进行了分析,结果显示:扶贫专项贷款对农村贫困发生率具有正向减贫效果;以工代赈资金对农村贫困发生率、农村贫困深度以及农村贫困强度具有正向减贫效果;扶贫发展资金对农村贫困深度具有正向减贫效果,而扶贫专项贷款对农村贫困强度的冲击则显示出负向减贫效果;扶贫发展资金对农村贫困强度具有显著负效应。据此,文章提出改善扶贫资金支出结构的相关政策建议。     

Impact of remittances on male and female labor force participation patterns in Africa: Quasi‐experimental evidence from Ghana

In this paper, we examine how remittances, an outcome of labor mobility, affect labor market activities in Ghana using detailed household and individual‐level data. This is important, considering the extensive literature that has documented the remittance–poverty reduction nexus. First, we find a strong negative association between household remittance‐receiving status and individual labor supply decisions using instrumental variable estimation techniques. Second, we find the depressing effect of remittances on labor supply decisions to be much stronger in rural areas. Rural women who reside in remittance‐receiving households are less likely to be in the labor force compared with those who do not reside in such households. Remittances have very little impact on labor supply decisions in urban areas. Our findings support that remittances can exacerbate long‐term poverty reduction in rural areas through lower labor force participation, and as such rural‐based and gender‐based interventions may be needed to help redirect remittance income.     

Linkages between poverty and income inequality of urban–rural sector: a time series analysis of India’s urban-based aspirations from 1951 to 1994

This study examines the impact of urban and rural development on poverty and inequality in India before economic reform. The methodology comprises two dimensions. Modern time series methods are used to uncover the dynamic patterns of urban–rural poverty and income inequality. A machine-learning algorithm is used to determine the causal structure among the development indicators. Our results show that reductions in rural poverty appear to be a more effective in reducing both urban and rural poverty, although the costs of achieving these reductions have not been considered.     

二元财政的制度变迁：基于路径依赖的视角

植根于二元经济结构的二元财政制度总是执行有利于城镇部门发展，而且有损于农业部门发展的财政税收政策。这不仅造成了农村居民的长期贫困，而且还持续拉大城乡差距。基于新制度经济学的制度变迁分析结果显示，二元财政的制度安排内含自我增强机制，其变迁具有明显的路径依赖特征，所以，农村居民的贫困必然具有长期性，城乡差距也会持续拉大。因此，必须根据中国经济现实，对二元财政制度采取边际调整的改革措施和借助市场化的手段改善其赖以存在的经济环境，方可在长期内从整体上推动二元财政制度变迁，实现城乡平等的财政制度。     

Do inward looking trade policies affect poverty and income inequality? Evidence from Indonesia's recent wave of rising protectionism

Unlike previous studies which often focus on trade liberalisation, this paper examines the impact of protectionism in the form of import tariffs and mineral export taxes on rural and urban poverty and income inequality for the first time. Using a dynamic computable general equilibrium model on Indonesia, mineral export taxes were found to adversely affect urban and rural poverty but income inequality hardly changed as the decline in income in the higher income group is not significantly different to the decline in low income groups. However, if smelters for mineral ore are developed, then there is not only a fall in poverty, more so for the rural than urban, but there is some decline in income inequality. On the other hand, although the current imposed import tariffs do not affect poverty or income inequality, any further increases from the current low average MFN applied rates, will see a rise in rural and urban poverty and income inequality. By and large, any small improvements in the trade balance brought upon by the mineral tax and import tariffs are more than outweighed by the substantial decline in real household consumption expenditure due to falls in employment and wages, thereby leading to a fall in GDP growth.     

中国的政府公共支出与减贫政策

在中国 ,尽管农村经济增长和贫困减少取得了长足进展 ,但很少有研究对农村经济的动力源进行分析 ,而把公共投资作为农村发展和消除贫困的直接动力源的研究尤其缺乏。本文旨在弥补以前研究的空白 ,并指出各类公共投资对农村经济增长、贫困减少和地区不均等的边际效应在各地区和各时期差别很大。根据实证结果和对历史上公共支出方式的分析可知 ,农村公共支出再分配可以带来很大的潜在收益。     

建国以来我国农村扶贫开发的历史回顾与现实启示

新中国成立后,根据不同时期农村贫困状况的不同特点,中国共产党采取了相应的扶贫政策和措施,从小规模的救济式扶贫,到以体制改革为主导的扶贫;从以"输血"为主的扶贫到以"造血"为主的扶贫再到综合性扶贫开发,取得了重要成效,并积累了许多宝贵经验,为新形势下进一步开展农村扶贫开发工作提供了重要启示。     

Impact of trade liberalisation on labour market and poverty in Sri Lanka. An integrated macro-micro modelling approach

This paper revisits the long standing controversy of trade and poverty linkage using a macro-micro modelling approach based on general equilibrium and microsimulation analytical frameworks. Sri Lanka, the first country in South Asia which undertook trade reforms more than three decades ago, is taken as a case in point in this study. The paper analyses the effects of trade liberalisation on income distribution and poverty in the urban, rural and estate sectors in Sri Lanka using the first ever microsimulation model built for the country in combination with a multi-household computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. The results reveal that without any fiscal policy adjustments a 100% tariff cut would lead to an increase in economic growth and a reduction in poverty incidence both in the short run as well as in the long run. However, when the tariff cut combined with the fiscal policy adjustments to maintain the budget neutrality, poverty outcomes showed mixed results. In contrast, results show that trade liberalisation increases the income inequality in Sri Lanka.     

Spatial differences in poverty: The case of Peru

This paper examines the implications of spatial differences in living costs for measures of poverty. Taking Peru as a case study, spatial price indices are used to calculate location-specific poverty lines, based on the local cost of a basket of basic needs. Applied to income distribution data, these poverty lines yield measures of the extent and location of poverty. The paper shows that these measures are significantly different from, and much more accurate than those obtained using a single countrywide poverty line; the latter can give a misleading picture of poverty by over- stating spatial differences, in general overestimating rural and underestimating urban poverty.     

GROWTH, POVERTY, AND INEQUALITY IN LATIN AMERICA: A CAUSAL ANALYSIS, 1970–94

Taking advantage of consistent poverty and income inequality data for 12 Latin American countries between 1970 and 1994, we analyze the determinants of changes in the incidence of urban and rural poverty and in Gini coefficients over spells of years, stressing in particular the role of aggregate income growth. We find that income growth reduces urban and rural poverty but not inequality. We also find that income growth is more effective in reducing urban poverty if the levels of inequality and poverty are lower, and the levels of secondary education higher. We show that there is an asymmetry in the impact of growth on poverty and inequality, with recession having strong negative effects on both poverty and inequality. Since growth does not reduce inequality, economic cycles create ratchet effects on the level of inequality. However, post-structural adjustment growth is quite effective at reducing poverty, particularly if inequality is low.     

财政投资对农村脱贫效应的边际递减趋势及对策

中国农村的改革开放取得了巨大的成功,同时也使农村的贫困问题凸现出来;财政投资是解决农村贫困问题的有效途径,然而财政投资的效率边界也使新世纪的扶贫工作面临新的课题.本文分析了农村财政投资对减贫的作用机理,并在此基础上给出了当前农村减贫中财政投资在不同地区、项目上的合理区间和运作方式.     

Urban–rural gap and poverty traps in China: A prefecture level analysis

Urban–rural gap and regional inequality are long-standing problems in China and result in considerable number of studies. This article examines the dynamic behaviours of incomes for both urban and rural areas with a prefectural data set. The analysis is conducted by using a distribution dynamics approach, which have advantages in examination on persistence, polarization and convergence clubs. The results show that persistence and immobility are the dominant characteristics in the income distribution dynamics. The prefectural urban and rural areas converge into their own steady states differentiated in income levels. This pattern of urban–rural gap also exists in three regional groups, namely the eastern, central and western regions. Examination on the dynamics of the poorest areas shows that geographical poverty traps exist in both urban and rural prefectural areas. Our results indicate that more policy interventions are required to narrow down the urban–rural gap and to eliminate the poverty traps in China.     

中国城镇家庭能源贫困评估*——基于微观调查数据的研究

我国扶贫工作重点已进入新阶段,从消除绝对贫困向缓解发展不平衡、不充分的相对贫困转变,从解决收入贫困向解决多维贫困转变,从重点解决农村贫困问题向统筹城乡扶贫转变。能源是人民生活质量的重要指标,能有效反映福利水平。了解我国城镇家庭能源消费的基本特征、准确测度能源贫困水平与分布,有助于为今后扶贫工作提供资料基础和科学管理依据。本文构建消费者能源消费决策分析框架,并运用第一次中国家庭能源消费调查数据,考察居民收入与能源消费之间的关系,并对中国城镇家庭能源贫困状况进行测度。研究发现,居民收入与能源消费之间存在S型非线性关系,能源价格、家庭特征、地域特征等因素在能源消费决策中都发挥重要影响。我国城镇家庭相对能源贫困较为严重,主要表现为能源可支付性问题。能源贫困率在20%左右,其中电力贫困程度更为严重,超过25%。家庭收入增长、户主受教育程度提高、城市电力基础设施的普及、城市环境规制水平的提升会显著降低城镇家庭陷入能源贫困的可能性,而电力价格上涨会显著增加城镇家庭陷入能源贫困的概率。     

CHINESE POVERTY: ASSESSING THE IMPACT OF ALTERNATIVE ASSUMPTIONS

This paper investigates how estimates of the extent and trend of consumption poverty in China between 1990 and 2004 vary as a result of alternative plausible assumptions concerning the poverty line and estimated levels of consumption. Our methodology focuses on the following sources of variation: purchasing power exchange rates (used to convert an international poverty line), alternative levels and distributions of private incomes, alternative estimates of the propensity to consume of different income groups, and alternative spatial and temporal price indices. We report national, urban and rural poverty estimates corresponding to distinct assumptions. It is widely believed that substantial poverty reduction took place in China in the 1990s, and we find this conclusion to be largely robust to the choice of assumptions, although estimates of the extent of Chinese poverty, and therefore of world poverty, in any year are greatly influenced by this choice.     

The impact of the Indonesian income tax reform: A CGE analysis

This study evaluates the impacts of Indonesia's recent income tax reforms on key macroeconomic variables, as well as the impacts on poverty and income distribution. It was found that the reductions in personal income tax and corporate income tax increase economic growth under a balanced budget assumption. The policy reforms also lead to a small reduction in the incidence of poverty. However, the policies also lead to an increase in income inequality because the tax cut is more beneficial to households in the highest income categories. It is recommended that future tax cuts should target the urban and rural poor.     

贸易自由化影响农村贫困的路径与特征

城乡人口流动是当今社会最重要的经济现象,贸易自由化的影响最为显著,为此,我们运用门槛面板数据模型实证研究了贸易自由化影响我国农村贫困的路径和特征。结果发现,贸易自由化主要从经济增长、就业与工资以及物价水平路径影响农村贫困。并且,贸易自由化和农村贫困之间存在一种非线性的倒U关系,即在贸易自由化初期,贸易自由化加重了农村贫困,当贸易自由化水平越过某一门槛值时,贸易自由化有助于农村减贫。因此,继续扩大自由贸易的层次与规模,是未来农村反贫困的一个政策选项。     

旅游减贫具有空间溢出效应吗?

针对现有文献缺乏旅游减贫多维效果及空间效应研究,本文基于多维贫困视角,运用2008—2017年中国30个省份的面板数据,构建了包含经济、教育、医疗、生活与环境五个维度的贫困减缓评价指标体系,并在地理距离矩阵和经济距离矩阵共同构成的综合嵌套矩阵的基础上,分别运用空间自相关检验、空间杜宾模型探究了各维度贫困减缓的空间分布特征及旅游发展对各维度贫困减缓的空间效应。主要结论有:(1)十年间,中国乡村旅游业发展水平呈现显著空间正向相关性,纳入空间效应的空间杜宾模型较好地揭示出区域间乡村旅游发展存在显著的空间溢出效应。(2)十年间,各维度的减贫效果亦呈现显著空间正向相关性,表明各维度减贫效果存在着空间集聚特征。(3)十年间,旅游发展对经济、生活、环境等维度的贫困均具有显著减缓作用,更重要的发现是旅游发展在这三个减贫维度上具有正向空间溢出效应。旅游发展对教育、医疗两个维度上贫困减缓的直接和间接效应均未通过显著性检验。(4)从空间异质性视角分析,旅游发展对经济减贫维度的空间溢出效应呈现出东部区域→中部区域→西部区域逐步递减规律;旅游发展对生活减贫维度和环境减贫维度的空间溢出效应均呈现出由东部区域→中部区域→西部区域逐渐增大特征。最后,论文就旅游减贫提出了相关政策建议。