Flexible pension take-up in social security

This paper studies the redistribution and welfare effects of increasing the flexibility of individual pension take-up. We use an overlapping-generations model with Beveridgean pay-as-you-go pensions and heterogeneous individuals who differ in ability and lifespan. We find that introducing flexible pension take-up can induce a Pareto improvement when the initial pension scheme contains within-cohort redistribution and induces early retirement. Such a Pareto improving reform entails the application of uniform actuarial adjustment of pension entitlements based on average lifespan. Introducing actuarial non-neutrality that stimulates later retirement further improves such a flexibility reform.     

延迟退休年龄、内生生育率与养老金

本文通过构建内生生育率的OLG模型,从微观视角考察了延迟退休年龄对生育率、养老金替代率及其个人养老金收入的影响。研究表明:(1)延迟退休年龄会提高均衡时的生育率水平,但提高幅度非常有限。(2)生育率的提高会增加未来劳动力供给,促进养老金替代率上升和养老金收入增加,而延迟退休年龄延长了养老保险缴费期限,也会促进养老金替代率上升和养老金收入增加;但同时,延迟退休年龄将使得预防性储蓄下降,资本积累降低,工资收入下降,养老金收入降低。因此,延迟退休年龄会使养老金替代率上升。当资本产出弹性大于或等于0.5时,延迟退休年龄会使得养老金收入降低;当资本产出弹性小于0.5时,在平均预期寿命较大或养老保险缴费比例较高的情形下,养老金收入会随着退休年龄的延迟而增加,反之,其会随着退休年龄的延迟而降低。进一步地,将模型拓展到包含人力资本的情形,延迟退休年龄仍会提高均衡时的生育率与养老金替代率。     

公务员养老保险改革国际趋势及对中国启示

公务员养老保险制度是社会保障制度重要组成部分,公平与可持续的公务员养老保险制度关系着经济的持续发展与社会的长治久安。随着社会经济环境的变化,一些国家受人口、经济、政治、管理等因素影响,已经或正在进行公务员养老保险制度改革。改革主要趋势由"分立"转向"统一",由给付确定制(DB)转向缴费确定制(DC),改革主要措施包括引入积累制因素、建立自主缴费制度、制定科学的计发办法、逐步提高退休年龄等。我国自20世纪90年代开始实施养老金制度改革,但公务员养老保险一直延续着计划经济时代所确立的离退休制度,改革进程缓慢。随着市场经济的深入发展,机关和企业双轨制的养老保险制度的弊端日益显露,结合自身国情借鉴国际经验加速改革步伐势在必行。     

Public pensions and labor supply over the life cycle

In order to remain fiscally solvent, governments of many countries have reformed their public pension schemes to encourage labor supply at older ages. These reforms include reductions in the generosity of public pensions and reduced penalties for working past the normal retirement age. In this paper, we consider how reforms to public pension systems affect labor supply over the life cycle. We put the recent empirical evidence on the effect of government pensions on labor supply in a life cycle context, and we present evidence on the effectiveness of tax reforms for stimulating labor supply over the life cycle. Our main conclusion is that the labor supply of older workers is responsive to changes in retirement incentives. The labor supply of younger workers is less responsive. Thus the trend towards lower taxes on older workers in many developed countries should continue to fuel their trend towards later retirement.     

Retirement Behaviour in Austria: Effects of Incentives on Old‐Age Labour Supply

We provide an extensive analysis of retirement behaviour in Austria with a special focus on the role of incentives delivered by the tax and benefit system in determining individual retirement decisions. A comprehensive microsimulation model of the Austrian pension system is applied to calculate retirement benefit entitlements and forward‐looking incentive measures (social security wealth, accrual rate, peak and option values) on an individual basis. We use the calculated incentive measures as the main explanatory variables in probit models to explain retirement decisions. We base our microsimulation and estimations on an extensive administrative Austrian data set. These data contain information on more than 300,000 new retirees from the period 2001–11. We provide robust evidence that incentive measures are well suited to explaining individual retirement decisions.     

改革退休年龄的时机和方案设计——基于陕西省基本养老保险省级统筹运行效果分析

本文从陕西省养老保险省级统筹基金的运行效果入手,说明在现行制度下未来养老基金缺口较大。通过设计改革退休方案,结合未来陕西的退休人口数量,运用定量的分析手法来论证改革退休年龄方案的可行性,希望通过推迟参保职工的退休年龄来增加缴费人数、降低在职人口抚养老年人口的系数,这种减少未来养老金支付压力的做法主要是依靠退休年龄的延迟从而达到纵向的扩面,实现调整,通过循序渐进的方式来逐年缓解基金缺口。     

At What Age Do You Expect to Retire? Retirement Expectations and Increases in the Statutory Retirement Age

We analyse the extent to which an increase in the statutory retirement age affects individuals' retirement expectations. Understanding how individuals adjust their expectations is crucial to the evaluation of this policy, since retirement expectations directly affect other important decisions such as labour supply, engagement in (further) education and, of course, savings and investments. We consider the 2007 German pension reform that legislated an increase in the statutory retirement age from 65 years to 67. Our analysis is based on a longitudinal study that directly asks respondents at what age they expect to retire. Using a difference‐in‐differences approach, we look at the changes in subjective retirement expectations over time and estimate the extent to which they can be attributed to the 2007 reform. We find that the reform shifted the retirement expectations of the younger cohorts, although there is some heterogeneity in the way individuals adjusted. While there are no significant differences between men and women, lower‐educated individuals failed to revise their expectations. As these individuals usually acquire both lower pension claims and lower private savings, the fact that they have been slower in updating their retirement expectations causes concern regarding their income security after retirement.     

退休人口再就业决策的影响因素研究 ——基于中国健康与养老追踪调查数据

夯实财富储备,改善劳动力有效供给是积极应对人口老龄化的重要措施。本文基于中国健康与养老追踪调查数据,全面考察了退休人口再就业的动因,着重分析享受养老待遇和养老待遇水平对退休人口再就业决策的影响。实证结果表明:享受养老待遇对退休人口再就业产生负激励效应;养老待遇水平提高会明显降低退休人口再就业的可能性;个人负债占资产比重越大,退休老年人再就业概率越高;配偶退休、年龄增大、健康状况差会显著降低退休人口再就业概率。对此,本文提出以下建议:适当延迟退休年龄,增加老年人口经济收入;养老保险制度应兼顾保障性和劳动力市场功能;构建老年就业服务体系,保障老年就业权利。     

Fiscal sustainability and demographic change: a micro-approach for 27 EU countries

The effect of demographic change on the labor force and on fiscal revenues is topical in light of potential pension shortfalls. This paper evaluates the effect of demographic changes between 2010 and 2030 on labor force participation and government budgets in the EU-27. Our analysis involves the incorporation of population projections, and an explicit modeling of the supply and demand side of the labor market. Our approach overcomes key shortcomings of most existing studies that focus only on labor supply when assessing the effects of policy reforms. Ignoring wage reactions greatly understates the increase in fiscal revenues, suggesting that fiscal strain from demographic change might be less severe than currently perceived. Beyond, our micro-based approach captures the impact on fiscal revenues more accurately than previous studies. Finally, as a policy response to demographic change and worsening fiscal budgets, we simulate the increase in the statutory retirement age. Our policy simulations confirm that raising the statutory retirement age can balance fiscal budgets in the long run.     

金融危机对拉美国家私营养老金的影响及经验启示

2008年爆发的金融危机对全球经济产生了重要影响,也对拉美国家私营养老金制度的发展产生了巨大冲击。文章介绍了拉美国家私营养老金制度的改革路径和养老基金概况,从养老金资产价值、投资收益率、投资组合、雇员、制度覆盖面和缴费密度方面切入,分析了金融危机对拉美私营养老金制度的影响。在现状分析的基础上,得出了要保障私营养老金制度可持续运行的一些经验启示:构建多元化的混合型养老金体系,增强退休和养老金支付的灵活性,积极运用生命周期投资策略,实施多元化和分散化投资,以养老金长期收益作为投资目标,建立社会风险应急储备基金和政府担保机制,以及加强员工退休教育。     

论社会保障

在对美国社会保障制度改革的政策建议中,彼得·戴蒙德教授主张通过养老金相关参数的调整来适应未来养老基金支出增长的压力,方式是改善养老金待遇标准和税收规则以确保养老基金的精算平衡。其基本观点是:第一,社会保障是退休后收入的基础,是防止贫困和失去保险机会的保障,所以社会保障制度应该建立;第二,因为人们很少自愿进行养老金积累,年金化的强制性公共养老金就非常重要,一是能平衡终生收入,二是能够提供就业激励;第三,公共养老金计划对工人及其家庭,特别是儿童、配偶和遗属有重要保障作用;第四,延迟退休能提高未来的消费,设计合理的待遇累进原则和退休审查制度会有助于增加劳动激励;第五,养老金的代际转移是一种再分配,较多的再分配会对工作生涯形成激励;第六,为实现精算平衡,应引入自动平衡机制来自动调整税率和待遇水平,以减少立法的压力。     

Measuring the Impact of Longevity Risk on Pension Systems: The Case of Italy

This article estimates the impact of longevity risk on pension systems by combining the prediction based on a Lee-Carter mortality model with the projected pension payments for different cohorts of retirees. We measure longevity risk by the difference between the upper bound of the total old-age pension expense and its mean estimate. This difference is as high as 4% of annual GDP over the period 2040–2050. The impact of longevity risk is sizeably reduced, but not fully eliminated, by the introduction of indexation of retirement age to expected life at retirement. Our evidence speaks in favor of a market for longevity risk and calls for a closer scrutiny of the potential redistributive effects of longevity risk.     

University-Provided Retirement Planning Support and Retiree Financial Satisfaction During Retirement: Differences by Gender, Job Classification, and Planning Behavior

Sound financial planning and financial advice is necessary to achieve retirement income adequacy. The shift from defined benefit to defined contribution pension plans and the recent bankruptcy of Enron Corporation underscore the importance of managing retirement accumulation and liquidation risks. This study analyzes the effectiveness and adequacy of institutional-provided information and advice on employees' retirement planning decisions and their satisfaction with financial resources during retirement. Results suggest that retirement planning should begin earlier in an employee's career and that employer-provided retirement information and advice is a highly valued service. Gender, planning practices, job classification, and age are all significant predictors of satisfaction with financial resources during retirement. Targeting women and union employees with retirement information and advice that focuses on allocating contributions using a balanced portfolio approach should result in significant increases in satisfaction with financial resources during retirement. Regulatory objectives should focus on reducing retirement accumulation and liquidation risks, improving the delivery of professional financial advice to plan participants, and expanding qualified retirement plan choice for all labor force participants. To encourage employer participation in employee retirement planning, employers acting in "good faith" should be federally protected from liability for providing retirement planning information and advice to employees.     

Is Prescott right? Welfare state policies and the incentives to work, learn, and retire

This paper bolsters Prescott’s (Fed. Reserve Bank Minneap. Q. Rev. 28(1):2–13, 2004) claim that high taxes are responsible for lackluster labor market performance in Continental European countries. We develop a life-cycle model with endogenous skill formation, endogenous labor supply, and endogenous retirement. Labor taxation distorts not only labor supply, but also education and retirement decisions. Actuarially unfair pensions further exacerbate labor tax distortions on retirement. Education subsidies can nevertheless cushion the adverse impact of taxation on skill formation. Feedbacks between education, labor supply, and retirement are important. The model is simulated with realistic behavioral elasticities that are consistent with microeconometric evidence. If, besides labor supply, also learning and retirement are endogenous, the uncompensated (compensated) elasticity of the tax base equals 0.46 (0.85), which is more than twice as large as the standard uncompensated (compensated) labor supply elasticity of 0.18 (0.40). Furthermore, life-cycle interactions between education, working, and retirement are quantitatively important and the interactions raise all behavioral elasticities substantially. For example, the uncompensated labor supply elasticity increases with one-half due to life-cycle interactions (to 0.26). We demonstrate that low European labor supply can be fully explained by taxation without relying on unrealistically high labor supply elasticities. Reducing labor market distortions, cutting benefit levels, lowering tax rates, and making (early) retirement actuarially more fair, therefore, boosts labor supply, delays retirement, and stimulates skill formation. In addition, high education subsidies are needed in large welfare states to offset explicit and implicit tax burdens on human capital investment.      

财政分权如何加剧了养老保险基金失衡?——基于收支二维视角的分析

基金失衡是当前养老保险制度改革面临的困境。本文从财政分权角度构建基金失衡的解释框架,并对其影响效果与作用机制进行实证检验。结果发现,财政分权显著加剧了养老保险基金的失衡风险,在经内生性与稳健性处理后,这一结果依然成立,且财政分权的影响效应主要通过征缴效率和提前退休两个机制实现。具体而言,财政分权诱发地方政府放松缴费监管,导致养老保险缴费收入遭受损失;财政分权引起地方政府降低退休审核,以致职工提前退休现象较为普遍,进而加大了基金支付需求;制度环境对财政分权的两种作用路径具有门槛效应,在基金相对富余、对财政补贴依赖度低以及总体法定费率较高时,财政分权的作用机制更加突显。本文验证了宏观经济体制对养老保险基金运行的影响,深化了对分权体制与养老保险制度关系的理解。     

Public Pension Reform in the United Kingdom: What Effect on the Financial Well‐Being of Current and Future Pensioners?*

Unlike many tax and benefit changes, reforms to public pension programmes take many years to have their full effect. This paper examines the effect of reforms to the public pension programme in the United Kingdom on the state retirement incomes of current generations of pensioners and on the prospective state incomes of future generations of pensioners. We show that, for an individual with lifetime earnings close to male average earnings, the UK pension system is at its most generous to those reaching the state pension age around the year 2000, but that the introduction of the state second pension and the pension credit postpones this peak for individuals on lower incomes and for those with substantial periods out of paid employment spent with caring responsibilities. We also consider how the ‘mix’ of benefits, particularly between the contributory and income‐tested sectors, could change over time, and the impact that this would have on incentives to save for retirement.     

Gradual Retirement: An Additional Option in Work and Retirement

Abstract

Aging of the population raises many questions and issues for individuals, families, and society: economic, political, social, psychological, medical, ethical, moral, religious, and legal, all of which bear on the quality of life in its many dimensions. Economic security in old age is one rubric under which many of the problems and their possible solutions may be discussed. How a society arranges for its members to work and retire is an important facet in the provision for old-age economic security.

This article is concerned with the implications of demographic and labor force changes for work and retirement. It discusses the role of gradual (or phased) retirement in introducing flexibility into the range of choices between work and retirement.

Section 1 explains the rationale for gradual retirement. Section 2 spells out the barriers to implementing gradual retirement programs, including legal barriers and barriers relating to pension plan objectives. Section 3 discusses some possible solutions for implementing gradual retirement programs. Section 4 describes some selected examples of gradual retirement programs, and Section 5 contains concluding remarks.     

On the Asset Allocation of a Default Pension Fund

We characterize the optimal default fund in a defined contribution (DC) pension plan. Using detailed data on individuals' holdings inside and outside the pension system, we find substantial heterogeneity within and between passive and active investors in terms of labor income, financial wealth, and stock market participation. We build a life‐cycle consumption‐savings model, with a DC pension account and an opt‐out/default choice, that produces realistic investor heterogeneity. Relative to a common age‐based allocation, implementing the optimal default asset allocation implies a welfare gain of 1.5% during retirement. Much of the gain is attainable with a simple rule of thumb.     

Beliefs and actions: expectations and savings decisions by older Americans

To understand the interaction of savings behavior, pension fund participation and expectations of retirement well being, we ask two questions. Are expected pension benefits a substitute for accumulated savings in replacing preretirement income? Are individuals’ expectations concerning their retirement standard of living realistic based on their accumulated savings and pension plan participation? First-wave data from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) are analyzed using a probit regression. The results are consistent with the idea that pension benefits are substitutes for saving and that accumulated savings have a significant impact on the expected standard of living but pension plan participation does not.     

Getting Feedback on Defined Contribution Pension Plans

With the growth of private and public defined contribution (DC) pension plans around the world, market rates of return should increasingly play a large role in the retirement patterns of individuals. The reverse could, however, also be true—i.e., a country's population demographics could influence the financial markets. In this article, we model the potential impact of aggregate retirement patterns on macroeconomic variables with the goal of further understanding the implications of a traditional DC pension becoming the predominant source of retirement income for an entire society. We find that the economic-system feedback dampens fluctuations in the size of the working population.