Commitment and the time structure of taxation of foreign direct investment

The paper examines the role of commitment to future tax policy as an explanation for tax incentives for foreign direct investment that take the form of rates that increase over time. Both commitment and non-commitment to future tax rates are analyzed using a two-period model with investment determined endogenously in the first period. Without commitment, it is shown that tax rates may increase or decrease with time depending on the relative values of the firms' outside option each period of investing elsewhere in the world and on the responsiveness of investment to a change in the tax rate. With commitment, the time structure of tax rates is shown to depend on the relative rates at which firms and governments discount the future.This is a revised version of a chapter of my Ph.D. dissertation completed at Queen's University (1993). I am grateful to my supervisors Robin Boadway and Beverly Lapham for comments on an earlier version. I also thank Sam Bucovetsky and two anonymous referees for comments and suggestions.     

Unemployment and debt dynamics in a highly indebted small open economy

The paper analyzes the dynamic effects of a total factor productivity shock and an interest rate risk premium shock in a highly indebted open economy. In contrast to the standard open economy framework, search unemployment and wage bargaining are introduced. We find that a negative total factor productivity shock primarily has effects on the economy's production side and on welfare, but not on its stock of foreign debt and the country specific risk premium, and large part of the adjustment happens in the short-run. In contrast, a pure increase in the country specific risk premium causes substantial dynamics and a considerable reduction in foreign debt, allowing higher consumption in the long run and creating an intertemporal welfare gain, even though unemployment increases strongly in the short-run. A 50% haircut of foreign debt significantly reduces the initial response of the unemployment rate. In case of a temporary productivity shock, sticky wages imply smaller employment, but generate higher welfare than flexible wages.     

Optimal monetary policy in a small open economy with staggered wage and price contracts

We study optimal monetary policy for a small open economy in a model where both domestic prices and wages are sticky due to staggered contracts. The simultaneous presence of the two forms of nominal rigidities introduces an additional trade-off between domestic inflation and the output gap. We derive a second-order approximation to the average welfare losses that can be expressed in terms of the unconditional variances of the output gap, domestic price inflation, and wage inflation. As a consequence, the optimal policy seeks to minimize a weighted average of these variances. We analyze welfare implications of several alternative simple policy rules, and find that domestic price inflation targeting generates relatively large welfare losses, whereas CPI inflation targeting performs nearly as well as the optimal rule.     

Optimal exchange intervention for a small open economy

This paper investigates the optimal exchange intervension strategy for a small open economy in which both the domestic price level and domestic real GNP are endogenous, with the authority's objective being to stabilize a function involving both these variables. A special feature of the underlying macro model is that real balances are productive. Ultimately, this will mean that aggregate supply is sensitive to nominal interest rates. Additionally, both expectations and the intervention policy are designed to exploit the fact that financial market data, such as exchange and interest rates, are observable on a fairly current basis. Contrary to conventional wisdom, optimal intervention will usually require accentuating, not moderating, current exchange rate movements.     

Optimal commodity taxation with duty-free shopping

International travellers are frequently offered the opportunity to purchase a certain quantity of goods duty-free. Individuals differ in their opportunities to benefit from duty-free shopping, and we focus on the implications of these differences for optimal commodity taxation within a version of the optimal tax model of Mirrlees (Review of Economic Studies, 38, 175–208, 1971). We show how duty-free alters the constraints on the use of commodity taxes to reduce the distortionary costs of income taxation or to reflect externalities. Beyond characterising optimal taxes in the duty-free regime, we discuss conditions under which allowing duty-free would increase or reduce social welfare.      

Rent taxation and its intertemporal welfare effects in a small open economy

Previous literature concludes that replacing wage taxation by taxes on a fixed factor or its rents benefits future generations. However, the effects of such steady-state gains on the transition generations have been left open. In this paper, we show that taxation of rents may also increase utility of the current generation provided tax revenues are earmarked to reduce wage taxes. In particular, a shift in the tax mix may yield an intergenerational Pareto-improvement when the initially prevailing tax mix is sufficiently skewed toward wage taxation.     

Optimal foreign exchange-rate policy for a small open economy

This paper examines optimal exchange-rate policy for a small open economy which faces temporary and pemanent, real and nominal disturbances. It demonstrates that exchange-rate stabilization is desirable if most diturbances are nominal. If most disturbances are real, then stabilization should be greater: (1) the greater the fraction of exchange-rate variance accounted for by permanent disturbances; (2) the greater the information available to firms in setting the wage; (3) the greater the fraction of exchange-rate variance attributed to domestic productivity shocks compared with foreign relative price shocks; and (4) the more elastic is labor supply.     

Inventories and optimal monetary policy in a small open economy

We study how inventory investment affects the design of optimal monetary policy in a New Keynesian small open economy model. We find that under producer currency pricing, when the intratemporal elasticity of substitution is smaller than 1, optimal monetary policy in our model with inventories is similar to a standard model without inventories. However, when the intratemporal elasticity of substitution is larger than 1, inventory investment increases the importance of nominal exchange rate stabilization relative to a standard model without inventories. The importance of nominal exchange rate stabilization increases with the intratemporal elasticity of substitution.     

Optimal monetary growth with accommodating fiscal policy in a small open economy

This paper emphasizes how the choice of the optimal monetary growth rate in a small open economy under perfect capital mobility depends upon the accommodating policy chosen to maintain the overall budget constraint in the economy. When this occurs through lump sum taxation, the optimal monetary growth rate is shown to be the ‘distorted’ Friedman monetary rule. If the adjustment occurs through the income tax rate, the optimal monetary growth rate involves a Phelps-type tradeoff between the income tax rate and the inflation tax rate. The framework is suited for analyzing optimal macroeconomic policy in general and the latter part of the paper considers an optimal monetary-fiscal package.     

Destination taxation and evasion: Evidence from U.S. inter-state commodity flows

Tax evasion has been an important issue in the accounting literature for several decades, but the focus has been on corporate income taxes. We develop a new way to examine tax evasion that focuses on corporate transactions, rather than corporate profits. Specifically, we examine how commodity flows respond to destination sales taxes, allowing for tax evasion as a function of distance between trade partners. After accounting for transportation costs, we find that the effect of taxes decreases as distance increases. This is consistent with the notion that longer distances between trade partners hinder government oversight and increase the likelihood of successful tax evasion. Our results are robust with respect to outliers, strategic neighbor effects, information sharing agreements and other re-specifications. These results are important to policymakers because they evidence the difficulty of enforcing destination taxation in open economies such as U.S. states and the European Union.     

Credit crunch in a small open economy

We construct an open-economy DSGE model with a banking sector to analyze the impact of the recent credit crunch on a small open economy. In our model the banking sector operates under monopolistic competition, collects deposits and grants collateralized loans. Collateral effects amplify monetary policy actions, interest rate stickiness dampens the transmission of interest rates, and financial shocks generate non-negligible real and nominal effects. As an application we estimate the model for Poland-a typical small open economy. According to the results, financial shocks had a substantial, though not overwhelming, impact on the Polish economy during the 2008/09 crisis, lowering GDP by approximately 1.5 percent.     

Optimal wage re-negotiation in a closed and open economy

This paper investigates an economy in which there are short-term wage contracts that are re-negotiated under certain conditions. The paper determines the optimal frequency of wage re-negotiation and shows that it depends positively on measures of aggregate variability and Phillips curve slope. The role of optimal wage re-negotiation is to mitigate the output effects of various shocks. In the context of an open economy, it is shown that the desirable exchange rate regime in an economy with optimal wage re-negotiation depends on the stochastic structure of the economy.     

Risk sharing,finance, and institutions in international portfolios

We develop a standard model to show how transaction costs in international investment affect conventional tests of consumption risk sharing, both in a multilateral and a bilateral setting. We implement the tests in a novel international data set on bilateral holdings of equity, bonds, foreign direct investment (FDI) and bank loans. In our data, high foreign capital holdings are associated with international consumption risk sharing as implied by our theory. This is especially true of investment in equity or bonds, but not of foreign direct investment or bank loans. In our model, the implication is that transaction costs are higher for FDI and international loans. The discrepancy could reflect technological differences, but also the prospect of expropriation, perhaps most stringent for FDI or loans. We argue that expropriation risk is endogenous to both the borrower's institutions and its openness to international markets. The detrimental impact of poor institutions is muted in open economies, where the possibility of subsequent exclusion from world markets deters expropriation of foreign capital. We show the implied effects of institutions prevail in both the cross-section of consumption risk sharing and in observed international investment patterns.     

Financial integration and business cycles in a small open economy

The purpose of this study is to examine a dynamic, stochastic, general equilibrium framework with financial and informational frictions and foreign borrowing in the case of money growth and technology shocks for a small open economy and to analyze the implications of varying degrees of financial integration for aggregate fluctuations and propagation mechanisms in the economy. The existence of informational asymmetries among the agents in the model necessitates financial intermediation in the economy. Moreover, there is uncertainty involved in the production process which leads to collateralized borrowing by firms and, therefore, has to be taken into account in the design of the loan contracts between firms and financial intermediaries. It is shown that increasing financial integration amplifies the effect of a positive, temporary monetary shock on output, consumption, investment, labor demand and loans; whereas it has barely any implication for the impact of a positive, temporary technology shock on the economy.     

Gravity and culture in foreign portfolio investment

Using panel regression estimates from the IMF’s CPIS survey of foreign debt and equity portfolios across 174 originating and 50 destination countries from 2001 to 2007, we clarify the role of culture and extend the set of cultural variables that have been investigated in gravity models of foreign portfolio investment (FPI). Incorporating Hofstede’s cultural dimensions of individualism, masculinity, power distance and uncertainty avoidance, we show how cultural traits in both originating and destination countries, as well as the cultural distances that separate them, interact with geographic distance and other gravity variables to determine global FPI patterns. We find hitherto unreported effects and show that while gravity always deters FPI, aspects of culture and cultural distance can offset this by supporting FPI.     

Financial globalization and stock market risk

This paper examines stock market volatility measured by either “beta-volatility” or by the standard deviation of stock returns over 1995-2007. In our dynamic panel data framework, after controlling for size, turnover, and real output growth, we find some support to increases in financial integration reducing total stock return volatility for representative emerging markets, with almost no impact for industrial economies. Allowing for feedback effects from stock volatility to stock turnover, we obtain a richer interpretation for the broadening of investor basis hypothesis: more integrated financial markets leads to lower stock volatility, yet these are not so strong as found previously and are not accompanied by more turnover.     

Capital structure choice and company taxation: A meta-study

This paper provides a quantitative review of the empirical literature on the tax impact on corporate debt financing. Synthesizing the evidence from 48 previous studies, we find that this impact is substantial. In particular, the tax rate proxy determines the outcome of primary analyses. Measures like the simulated marginal tax rate (Graham, 1996) avoid a downward bias in estimates for the debt response to tax. Moreover, econometric specifications and the set of control-variables affect tax effects. Accounting for misspecification biases by means of meta-regressions, we predict a marginal tax effect on the debt ratio of about 0.27.     

Stock market synchronization and monetary integration

This paper focuses on the relationship between stock market comovements and monetary integration. A panel specification is used to explain bilateral stock market return correlations between fifteen developed economies over the period 1975-2006. Time fixed effects are included to capture global shocks and we also examine the role of bilateral trade linkages and international financial integration. Monetary integration leads to stronger stock market synchronization, both through the elimination of exchange rate volatility and through the common monetary policy and the convergence of inflation expectations. Trade and financial integration also contribute to higher stock market return comovements.