Financial Markets and Stochastic Growth

The authors study the effect of financial markets on the investment of a two-good two-country economy with stochastic production in a dynamic framework. Each country produces and invests only one good and, therefore, makes decisions as a central planner in an optimal growth model. Trade between consumers of both countries, however, takes place on competitive (spot or financial) markets. The authors compare the investment–consumption decisions of both "market" models with the benchmark case of an integrated world-equilibrium. In the log-linear case, it is possible to uniquely characterize the state-dependent preferences of consumers that lead to dynamically efficient investment decisions. It is shown that the investment decisions in both "market" models are, in general, inefficient compared with the efficient, or integrated world economy, case.     

Government Size and Stochastic Growth

This paper analyses the effects of the size of government on economic growth in a stochastic endogenous growth model involving the supply‐side effect and demand‐side effect produced by government spending. We show that a rise in the government spending affects economic growth through three channels, including the crowding‐out effect, the spin‐off effect and the resource mobilisation effect. We demonstrate that there exists an optimal size of government that maximises the economic growth rate.     

Stochastic Growth and Factor Income Risk

Abstract. This paper examines the effects of aggregate factor income risk in a tractable version of the stochastic Romer endogenous growth model. Labor supply is endogenous. The presence of labor income risk unambiguously increases savings and growth due to precautionary motives. Households not only underaccumulate but also work less along the balanced growth path of the competitive economy when compared with the Pareto-efficient allocation. The paper also discusses distributive disturbances for the case of inelastic labor supply. Here, growth effects are negative for empirically plausible correlations of the underlying shocks.     

Endogenous Growth and Trade Liberalization

We develop an endogenous growth model in which trade liberalization has a positive effect on growth. This effect does not depend on marginal re-allocations nor on knowledge-spillovers. Rather, it is due solely to the increase in market size following the integration of product markets. Our result contradicts a widely-help view that trade on physical goodsper sehas no consequences for long-run growth.[F15]     

加工贸易增长模式与“贫困化增长”

外汇占款大量投放导致的货币投放结构调整,使沿海地区、出口行业获得了充裕的人民币资金,而内地、非出口行业则面临人民币的短缺,这种资金分配的不平衡加大了东西部贫富差距,不利于"建设和谐社会"目标的实现,使我国经济对外资的依赖越来越大。加工贸易增长模式还有可能使我国进入"贫困化增长"。     

Trade Liberalization and Productivity Growth

This paper presents a trade model with firm‐level productivity differences and R&D‐driven growth. Trade liberalization causes the least productive firms to exit but also slows the development of new products. The overall effect on productivity growth depends on the size of intertemporal knowledge spillovers in R&D. When these spillovers are relatively weak, then trade liberalization promotes productivity growth in the short run and makes consumers better off in the long run. However, when these spillovers are relatively strong, then trade liberalization retards productivity growth in the short run and makes consumers worse off in the long run.     

Free Trade and Economic Growth

This paper extends the Das (2005) model to set up an equilibrium growth model with heterogeneous labor to analyse the growth effects after trade openness. We prove that if the terms of trade large enough before opening trade, then it is more likely that opening trade would accelerate economic growth for a small open country, vice versa.     

A New Matrix Theorem: Interpretation in Terms of Internal Trade Structure and Implications for Dynamic Systems

Economic systems often are described in matrix form as x = Mx. We present a new theorem for systems of this type where M is square, nonnegative and indecomposable. The theorem discloses the existence of additional economic relations that have not been discussed in the literature up to now, and gives further insight in the economic processes described by these systems. As examples of the relevance of the theorem we focus on static and dynamic closed Input-Output (I-O) models. We show that the theorem is directly relevant for I-O models formulated in terms of difference or differential equations. In the special case of the dynamic Leontief model the systems behavior is shown to depend on the properties of matrix M = A + C where A and C are the matrices of intermediate and capital coefficients, respectively. In this case, C is small relative to A and a perturbation result can be employed which leads directly to a statement on the systems eigenvalues. This immediately suggests a solution to the well-known problem of the instability of the dynamic Leontief model.     

对外贸易与我国经济增长——基于中国宏观经济基本假设条件的理论分析

近年来我国经济增长中伴随着对外贸易连续高速增长,且出口多于进口,外汇储备不断增加的现象。此现象是由我国生产力不平衡结构、引进技术进步机制、劳动力过剩和强政府控制力等特定的中国宏观经济基本假设条件所导致的。基于这些基本假设条件构建的结构模型可以较好地解释我国对外贸易与经济增长的内在关系及其变迁机制。     

Stochastic Growth Models and Their Econometric Implications

This article considers the consequences of explicitly allowing for stochastic technological progress and stochastic labor input in the discrete-time Solow-Swan and AK growth models. It shows that the capital-output ratio, but not output per capita, is ergodic irrespective of whether there is a unit root in technology, and thus is the more appropriate measure to use in the cross-sectional analysis of the growth process. Furthermore, the article derives the cross-sectional and time-series implications of the stochastic Solow-Swan model and contrasts these to those of its deterministic counterpart. Among these implications are that the mean of the capital-output ratio depends in a precise way not only on the saving rate and the growth rate of labor input, but also on the variance and higher-order cumulants of the capital-output ratio. Using the Summers-Heston data for seventy-two countries from 1960 to 1992, strong support is found for the predictions of the stochastic Solow-Swan model as compared to those of its deterministic counterpart (as well as those of the AK model), including a significant negative cross-sectional relationship between the mean and the variance of the capital-output ratio.     

论外贸增长方式的转变

按照科学发展观,目前必须着力转变经济增长方式。然而要转变经济增长方式,就须先扼制外贸数量扩张,转变外贸增长方式。近年来,一再被抬高的外贸依存度,势必有一定程度的降低。但是,对于外贸依存度的升降,经济学界却存有不同认识,需要讨论。     

The Dynamic Harrod Foreign Trade Multiplier and the Demand-orientated Approach to Economic Growth: an Evaluation

This paper puts forward a demand-orientated model of economic growth, as an alternative to the supply-orientated approach of neoclassical theory, and evaluates the extensive research testing the dynamic Harrod trade multiplier model developed by Thirlwall and extended by McCombie. It is critical of the continued dismissal of demand constraints as an explanation of inter-country growth rate differences in the models of McGregor & Swales, Crafts, Krugman, etc., and in the ‘new’ growth theory literature, although it is sympathetic to the rehabilitation of the role increasing returns for an understanding of cumulative processes which make for divisions in the world economy.     

Aid for Trade and Global Growth

Aid for trade increases a recipient's public services, which lower its import and export transport costs. Formulating a two‐country endogenous growth model, we obtain two main results. First, a permanent increase in the donor's aid/gross domestic product (GDP) ratio raises the steady‐state growth rate as well as both countries' long‐run fractions and cost shares of imported varieties if and only if it lowers the product of transport costs. Second, under a plausible condition, there exists a unique interior growth‐maximizing aid/GDP ratio. These results are robust to alternative specifications for congestion and stock‐flow nature of public goods.     

贸易政策、增长和就业

直到现在,理论模型还去无法把贸易政策与更快的均衡增长联系起来,而且,实证文献有严重的数据方面的问题,因此,经济学家们还在贸易政策与经济运行的关系上争论不休。但是,最近的内生增长理论已经提供了更坚实的理论基础。有越来越多的证据表明,在外向型经济中,新技术能更快地被采用,外向型的贸易政策与储蓄率之间可能还是存在着某些联系的。而且,许多研究者进行的实证分析表明,在越开放的经济中,增长速度越快,创造的就业机会越多。所以,外向型贸易政策对增长、就业可能起正面的作用。     

Endogenous Growth and International Trade*

This paper clarifies and slightly generalizes the basic endogenous-growth model. I prove the basic theorems without the usual assumption that the distribution of knowledge around the world is irrelevant. Results are stated in terms of lemmas, theorems, and corollaries in order to bring out as clearly as possible the role of each assumption.     

Saving Rates, Trade, Technology, and Stochastic Dynamics

This paper develops a framework for analyzing the stochastic dynamics of small growing trading economies with CES sector technologies. The open neoclassical two-sector growth model with a diffusion process (uncertainty) for the aggregate saving/investment ratio is demonstrated with sample paths and long-run probability distributions of the overall factor endowment ratio. Stochastic endogenous growth and cycles require a combination of fundamental growth parameter values: saving rates, terms of trade, and sectorial substitution elasticities.     

Stochastic Optimal Growth with Unbounded Shock

This paper considers a neoclassical optimal growth problem where the shock that perturbs the economy in each time period is potentially unbounded on the state space. Sufficient conditions for existence, uniqueness, and stability of equilibria are derived in terms of the primitives of the model using recent techniques from the field of perturbed dynamical systems. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: C61, C62, O41.     

中国对外贸易可持续发展之贸易增长方式分析

中国对外贸易在规模总量迅速发展的背后,潜藏着众多不利于可持续发展的问题,诸如贸易结构不合理、贸易条件恶化以及环境污染破坏严重等,依靠要素投入的传统贸易增长方式正是导致这些问题的根源.因此,动态地利用比较优势原理,实现比较优势的高级化和提高竞争优势,使增长方式向集约型转变是解决对外贸易可持续发展潜在问题的根本之道.     

Free Trade, Growth, and Convergence

Can trade liberalization have a permanent affect on output levels, and more important, does it have an impact on steady-state growth rates? The model emphasizes the role that knowledge spillovers emanating from heightened trade can have on income convergence and growth rates during transition and over the long run. Among the results of the model, unilateral liberalization by one country reduces the income gap between the liberalizing country and other, wealthier countries. From the long-run growth perspective, unilateral (and multilateral) liberalization generates a positive impact on the steady-state growth of all the trading countries.