Stochastic Growth and Factor Income Risk

Abstract. This paper examines the effects of aggregate factor income risk in a tractable version of the stochastic Romer endogenous growth model. Labor supply is endogenous. The presence of labor income risk unambiguously increases savings and growth due to precautionary motives. Households not only underaccumulate but also work less along the balanced growth path of the competitive economy when compared with the Pareto-efficient allocation. The paper also discusses distributive disturbances for the case of inelastic labor supply. Here, growth effects are negative for empirically plausible correlations of the underlying shocks.     

加工贸易增长模式与“贫困化增长”

外汇占款大量投放导致的货币投放结构调整,使沿海地区、出口行业获得了充裕的人民币资金,而内地、非出口行业则面临人民币的短缺,这种资金分配的不平衡加大了东西部贫富差距,不利于"建设和谐社会"目标的实现,使我国经济对外资的依赖越来越大。加工贸易增长模式还有可能使我国进入"贫困化增长"。     

Endogenous Growth and Trade Liberalization

We develop an endogenous growth model in which trade liberalization has a positive effect on growth. This effect does not depend on marginal re-allocations nor on knowledge-spillovers. Rather, it is due solely to the increase in market size following the integration of product markets. Our result contradicts a widely-help view that trade on physical goodsper sehas no consequences for long-run growth.[F15]     

Stochastic Growth Models and Their Econometric Implications

This article considers the consequences of explicitly allowing for stochastic technological progress and stochastic labor input in the discrete-time Solow-Swan and AK growth models. It shows that the capital-output ratio, but not output per capita, is ergodic irrespective of whether there is a unit root in technology, and thus is the more appropriate measure to use in the cross-sectional analysis of the growth process. Furthermore, the article derives the cross-sectional and time-series implications of the stochastic Solow-Swan model and contrasts these to those of its deterministic counterpart. Among these implications are that the mean of the capital-output ratio depends in a precise way not only on the saving rate and the growth rate of labor input, but also on the variance and higher-order cumulants of the capital-output ratio. Using the Summers-Heston data for seventy-two countries from 1960 to 1992, strong support is found for the predictions of the stochastic Solow-Swan model as compared to those of its deterministic counterpart (as well as those of the AK model), including a significant negative cross-sectional relationship between the mean and the variance of the capital-output ratio.     

对外贸易与我国经济增长——基于中国宏观经济基本假设条件的理论分析

近年来我国经济增长中伴随着对外贸易连续高速增长,且出口多于进口,外汇储备不断增加的现象。此现象是由我国生产力不平衡结构、引进技术进步机制、劳动力过剩和强政府控制力等特定的中国宏观经济基本假设条件所导致的。基于这些基本假设条件构建的结构模型可以较好地解释我国对外贸易与经济增长的内在关系及其变迁机制。     

The Dynamic Harrod Foreign Trade Multiplier and the Demand-orientated Approach to Economic Growth: an Evaluation

This paper puts forward a demand-orientated model of economic growth, as an alternative to the supply-orientated approach of neoclassical theory, and evaluates the extensive research testing the dynamic Harrod trade multiplier model developed by Thirlwall and extended by McCombie. It is critical of the continued dismissal of demand constraints as an explanation of inter-country growth rate differences in the models of McGregor & Swales, Crafts, Krugman, etc., and in the ‘new’ growth theory literature, although it is sympathetic to the rehabilitation of the role increasing returns for an understanding of cumulative processes which make for divisions in the world economy.     

Saving Rates, Trade, Technology, and Stochastic Dynamics

This paper develops a framework for analyzing the stochastic dynamics of small growing trading economies with CES sector technologies. The open neoclassical two-sector growth model with a diffusion process (uncertainty) for the aggregate saving/investment ratio is demonstrated with sample paths and long-run probability distributions of the overall factor endowment ratio. Stochastic endogenous growth and cycles require a combination of fundamental growth parameter values: saving rates, terms of trade, and sectorial substitution elasticities.     

贸易政策、增长和就业

直到现在,理论模型还去无法把贸易政策与更快的均衡增长联系起来,而且,实证文献有严重的数据方面的问题,因此,经济学家们还在贸易政策与经济运行的关系上争论不休。但是,最近的内生增长理论已经提供了更坚实的理论基础。有越来越多的证据表明,在外向型经济中,新技术能更快地被采用,外向型的贸易政策与储蓄率之间可能还是存在着某些联系的。而且,许多研究者进行的实证分析表明,在越开放的经济中,增长速度越快,创造的就业机会越多。所以,外向型贸易政策对增长、就业可能起正面的作用。     

Endogenous Growth and International Trade*

This paper clarifies and slightly generalizes the basic endogenous-growth model. I prove the basic theorems without the usual assumption that the distribution of knowledge around the world is irrelevant. Results are stated in terms of lemmas, theorems, and corollaries in order to bring out as clearly as possible the role of each assumption.     

Stochastic Optimal Growth with Unbounded Shock

This paper considers a neoclassical optimal growth problem where the shock that perturbs the economy in each time period is potentially unbounded on the state space. Sufficient conditions for existence, uniqueness, and stability of equilibria are derived in terms of the primitives of the model using recent techniques from the field of perturbed dynamical systems. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: C61, C62, O41.     

中国对外贸易可持续发展之贸易增长方式分析

中国对外贸易在规模总量迅速发展的背后,潜藏着众多不利于可持续发展的问题,诸如贸易结构不合理、贸易条件恶化以及环境污染破坏严重等,依靠要素投入的传统贸易增长方式正是导致这些问题的根源.因此,动态地利用比较优势原理,实现比较优势的高级化和提高竞争优势,使增长方式向集约型转变是解决对外贸易可持续发展潜在问题的根本之道.     

Free Trade, Growth, and Convergence

Can trade liberalization have a permanent affect on output levels, and more important, does it have an impact on steady-state growth rates? The model emphasizes the role that knowledge spillovers emanating from heightened trade can have on income convergence and growth rates during transition and over the long run. Among the results of the model, unilateral liberalization by one country reduces the income gap between the liberalizing country and other, wealthier countries. From the long-run growth perspective, unilateral (and multilateral) liberalization generates a positive impact on the steady-state growth of all the trading countries.     

Savings, Volume of Trade, and Growth

This paper develops a two-country dynamic general equilibrium model with endogenous growth to analyze the effects of international trade on steady-stage growth. The two countries differ both in preferences and in technologies. It is shown first that both countries cannot simultaneously experience increases in consumption growth from trade. It is then shown that trade can increase output growth for both countries if the attitude towards saving matches the change in the terms of trade in each country. A country facing a decline (rise) in its output price grows faster if its intertemporal elasticity of substitution is sufficiently low (high).     

军费开支、治安水平与随机内生增长

建立一个随机宏观模型,考虑到军费开支和治安水平,采用随机最优化的方法,把军费开支作为宏观经济变量并进入个人效用和生产函数,得到经济达均衡时军费开支、个人收入的风险对治安水平的影响。同时求出最优的增长率和个人资本与财富比、消费和财富比。     

加工贸易出口与反倾销的动态关系

在描述我国加工贸易出口和国外对华反倾销现状的基础上,运用协整理论、建立误差修正模型和进行Granger因果关系检验分析加工贸易与反倾销之间的因果关系,然后建立VAR模型、进行脉冲响应分析和构建方差分解模型进一步研究了两者的动态变化关系。结果表明:反倾销对我国加工贸易出口具有显著的负向影响,并且该影响随着时间的推移而逐渐增强;加工贸易出口对反倾销的影响并不十分明显,但从长期看,加工贸易出口增长同样会加剧国外对华反倾销。     

动态风险厌恶、随机贴现因子与资产定价

本文在Campbell and Cochrane(1998)和Brandt and Wang(2001)的研究基础之上利用随机贴现因子对包含习惯的效用函数中的风险厌恶进行了动态一般化分析，并探讨了动态风险厌恶、随机贴现因子、资产定价以及消费增长等因素之间的一般化关系。这种一般化关系有助于解释“股权溢价之谜”(Equity Premium Puzzle)等不合理现象的存在。     

产业内贸易类型、利益与经济增长

在分析产业内贸易测度、分类及其利益的基础上,探讨产业内贸易促进经济增长的机制,并从产业内贸易总水平、垂直差异型产业内贸易、水平差异型产业内贸易等角度实证分析其对中国经济增长的影响。研究发现:垂直差异性产业内贸易在经济增长过程中起着促进作用,而水平差异性产业内贸易对经济增长起着阻碍作用。     

Industrialization, Economic Growth, and International Trade

This paper analyzes the relationship between economic growth, industrialization, and international trade in a two-sector endogenous growth model. With learning-by-doing, the economy grows perpetually along a balanced growth path, with manufacturing's relative price declining continuously. Under trade, its pattern of trade and growth will be affected by external growth. If it remains diversified under trade, its growth can keep in pace with the rest of the world. If the growth rate of the rest of the world is higher than a certain limit, the economy cannot catch up and will eventually produce agriculture only.     

中国出口贸易的贫困化增长研究

文章阐述了＂贫困化增长＂理论的核心概念,在此基础上分析了我国出现贫困化增长的原因。针对我国面对的困境提出了相关对策：加快产业结构调整,转变出口增长方式;创造良好的外贸体制环境。