政府公共资本投资的长期经济增长效应

本文首先建立一个包含政府公共资本投资的两部门内生增长模型,并把公共资本投资分为政府物质资本投资和人力资本投资,从而对公共资本投资的长期经济增长效应进行理论分析。结论是,两种形式的公共资本投资对长期经济增长都可能具有正效应也可能具有负效应,取决于民间经济主体消费跨时替代弹性大小。其次,我们利用向量自回归分析框架,对我国1978—2004年间公共资本投资对长期经济增长的影响作实证分析。结论是,我国两种形式的公共资本投资与经济增长之间存在着长期均衡关系,其中政府公共物质资本投资对长期经济增长的正影响更为显著,而政府公共人力资本投资对长期经济增长的正影响较小,且在短期内不利于经济增长。这一结论对我国今后科学制定财政政策和选择公共投资领域都具有重要意义。     

创新型人力资本、全要素生产率与经济增长分析

主要采用增长核算法和基于LA-VAR模型的方法,利用我国20世纪90年代以来的数据,对我国创新型人力资本、全要素生产率与经济增长的关系进行分析。结果显示:1990年以来我国TFP总体上趋于下降,经济增长方式仍属于投资拉动型,经济增长正越来越依靠于创新型人力资本;经济增长、全要素生产率增长与创新型人力资本增长之间存在单向Granger因果关系,经济增长与全要素生产率之间不存在Granger因果关系;经济增长的正向冲击对创新型人力资本具有一定的促进作用,从长期看,全要素生产率的正向冲击对创新型人力资本也具有一定的促进作用。     

公共资本对经济增长的影响及“挤出效应”分析

我国自20世纪70年代末开始经济改革以来,经济以年均接近70％的速度增长。在此过程中,东部地区发展尤为迅速,相比而言,西部省市的发展就稍显落后。1998年国家提出西部大开发战略,旨在加速西部地区经济的增长。纵观改革20年,在整个国经济增长过程中,许多因素都起到了重要作用。例如使家庭成为基本生产单位的农业改革,在企业管理中引入了物质激励的企业改革,各种价格改革、技术引进、面向国际贸易和外国投资的市场开放以及非国有部门的兴起等等。其中,公共资本对经济发展的影响如何？这将是本文探讨的重要问题。     

生产力、公有资本与中国特色社会主义——兼评资本与公有制不相容论

当代生产力的基本特征决定市场经济、资本关系的同时存在,社会主义既不能绕过市场经济,也不可能超越资本;资本包括私有资本和公有资本两种历史形态。公有资本是社会主义市场经济下公有制内在矛盾展开的必然结果,是迫使劳动者个人为社会提供剩余劳动的经济关系。公有资本的强大积累功能与增进人民福祉结合,是中国经济快速增长的主因;公有资本的创新动力及其对资本主义危机的免疫力,显示了中国特色社会主义冲破资本主义桎梏,持续发展生产力的巨大能量,它证明,并且还将继续证明社会主义的历史合法性。本文也是对资本与公有制不相兼容论的一个回应。     

Patterns of International Capital Flows and Productivity Growth: New Evidence

Recent evidence from developing and emerging economies shows a negative correlation between growth and net capital inflows, a contradiction to neoclassical growth theory. I provide updated and disaggregated evidence on the origins of this puzzle. An analysis of the components of capital flows and of gross portfolio positions shows that foreign direct investment is directed towards countries with the highest growth rates, but that portfolio investment outflows exceed these inflows. Liberalized capital accounts further exacerbate this pattern. My results suggest a desire for international portfolio diversification in liquid assets by fast‐growing countries lies at the heart of the puzzle.     

Effects of Public Infrastructure on Cost Structure and Productivity in the Private Sector

This paper examines the effects of public infrastructure on the cost structure and productivity in the private sector in Australia. Translog cost functions incorporating public capital infrastructure are estimated for the aggregate private sector as well as for seven broad industry groups using annual time series data for 1968/69–1995/96. The effects of public infrastructure on productivity are measured in terms of both cost-saving and output-augmenting measures. The empirical results suggest that public infrastructure has a positive and significant impact on productivity in private sector industries. Public capital serves as a substitute for both private capital and labour. The rates of return to public capital are significant and vary over the sample period.     

资本性支出分权、公共资本投资构成与经济增长

本文建立一个财政分权框架下的两部门内生增长模型,从理论上分析最优公共资本投资配置及其对经济增长的影响,并以我国全国和省份经济数据为基础对本文理论分析进行实证检验。分析表明,我国公共资本投资构成不尽合理,全国和地方公共物质资本投资比重明显偏低;中央和地方政府间公共资本投资事权划分也欠妥,资本性支出分权水平明显过高。这些结论对于我国今后财政政策的合理调整、政府间事权的科学划分具有重要意义。     

企业更替和生产率增长的效应——基于我国部分竞争性行业的实证研究

21世纪以来,我国部分竞争性行业的企业更替和生产率增长促进了国民经济的健康发展,而行业内部的竞争实际是不同生产率的企业竞争,竞争过程中生产率较低的企业退出,生产率增长较快企业取代生产率增长较慢企业的市场份额,企业更替的过程不断重复,使得行业生产率保持不断增长的趋势.我们用近年来相关行业的数据研究表明,企业更替不仅通过选择效应,而且通过激励效应促进了行业生产率的增长.然而,随着进入潮的逐渐消退,选择效应的作用有所降低;但企业更替主要通过选择效应中的动态转移效应和激励效应推动行业生产率不断增长.     

公共资本、税收与长期经济增长

基于两部门增长模型,通过参数化和数值模拟估算了我国税收政策的宏观经济效应及公共资本拥挤性、资本利用效率和外部性对税收政策效应的影响。研究表明,降低资本所得税更有利于经济增长和福利水平改善;基于福利最大化视角,应对劳动进行补贴,对资本减税;公共资本拥挤性强化了资本所得税的减税效应,但不利于福利水平改善,对劳动所得税减税效应影响不大;公共部门资本生产效率和公共资本外部性对减税政策效应具有非对称性影响。     

Economic Growth And Productivity Gains From Capital Inflow: A Reply

Journal of Quantitative Economics -     

Economic Growth And Productivity Gains From Capital Inflow: Another Rejoinder

Journal of Quantitative Economics -     

Economic Growth,Productivity Gains and Foreign Capital: A Comment

Journal of Quantitative Economics -     

Economic Growth and Productivity Gains from Capital Inflow: A Rejoinder

Journal of Quantitative Economics -     

Deregulation and Productivity: The Case of Spanish Banks

This paper deals with measuring total factor productivity (TFP) growth of financial institutions incorporating different types of deregulatory measures. TFP growth is decomposed into external, scale, and markup components. The external component is further dissected into deregulation and technical change components. The TFP growth relationship is included as an additional equation in estimating the cost system. The empirical model uses panel data on Spanish banks (savings and commercial banks). We find that deregulations contributed positively to TFP growth for both savings and commercial banks. Furthermore, domestic (European) deregulations had a greater effect on TFP growth of savings (commercial) banks. JEL Classification: D24, D40, G21Lozano-Vivas acknowledges financial support from the Ministerio de Ciencia y Tecnología and FEDER grant n° BEC2002-02852. The authors thank an anonymous referee, the editor of the JRE and seminar participants at the XI International Tor Vergata Conference on Banking and Finance: Monetary Integration, Markets and Regulation (Rome, Italy) and at the Asian Pacific Productivity and Efficiency Conference (Taipei, Taiwan) for numerous suggestions. A previous version of this paper was distributed as working paper E2004/24, CentrA.     

Public Capital and Economic Growth: A Convergence Approach

This paper estimates dynamic effects of public capital on output per capita. Based on an open economy growth model, I derive a version of the income convergence equation augmented with public capital. This equation is estimated using panel data of United States and Japanese regions. Sensible results are obtained when public capital is disaggregated into components. In both countries, the infrastructure component of public capital turns out to have significantly positive effects. The implied elasticity of output with respect to infrastructure is somewhere around 0.1 to 0.15. This suggests a modest contribution of infrastructure to postwar growth of the two countries.     

The Impact of Public Infrastructure on the Productivity of the Chilean Economy

The aim of this study is to assess the effect of the change in infrastructure capital on the cost structure of the Chilean economy, and thereby on productivity, differentiating between two key institutional periods. A further aim is to establish the extent to which infrastructure capital formation affects private capital. The authors use an econometric estimation of the cost elasticity of infrastructure. Conclusions indicate that an increased infrastructure capital reduces the production cost of the economy, thereby increasing productivity, mostly in the second period. In turn, especially in this latter period, infrastructure capital formation appears to assert both a positive cost‐share effect on private capital and a negative cost‐share effect on labor. These effects can be explained to a large extent by the significant differences between the institutional structures of the two consecutive periods studied.     

"剑桥资本争论"与新古典分配理论的质疑

目前居现代主流经济学地位的新古典边际生产力分配理论,由于完全排除了特定经济制度和资本主义经济关系的研究框架,从而在与新剑桥学派发起的“剑桥资本争论”中不断以逻辑悖论形式公诸于众;相反,由新剑桥学派所要复兴的古典剩余经济传统才是真正能够联系到现实资本主义经济关系的理论体系。     

现实生产力中的第一要素——资本

本文从现代市场经济的社会生产方式是资本的生产方式这一角度 ,分析了现实生产力的第一要素是资本。文章运用马克思基本原理 ,吸收现代产权理论的研究结论以及一些学者的实证研究成果指出 ,形成现实生产力的投入要素 :资本物品、土地和劳动三者之间 ,资本物品具有凝结其它要素进入生产过程的决定性作用     

Anglo-German Productivity Differences: The Role of Broad Capital

This paper investigates the role of broad capital in explaining Anglo-German labour productivity differences in manufacturing, where broad capital includes physical capital, workforce skills and R&D expenditure. All three forms of capital are found to have a significant impact on relative productivity but only workforce skills have a coefficient greater than that implied by standard ‘growth accounting’ methods. This is interpreted as supporting the idea that there are some external effects from human capital formation which raise the productivity of all workers in an industry. After allowing for broad capital the results suggest that Britain had a multifactor productivity advantage over Germany in the late 1980s.     

Impact of Intangible Capital on Productivity and Growth: Lessons from the Indian Information Technology Software Industry*

This paper examines the impact of intangible capital, including human capital and organisational capabilities on productivity, using India as an illustrative example. The research breaks new ground in creating measures of intangible capital at a micro level. Measures of tangible and intangible capital are used to estimate a ‘new economy’ production function with panel data. Generalised method of moments techniques are used to account for unobserved firm heterogeneity and endogenous explanatory variables. The results indicate that intangible assets have a major impact on software sector output. This has important implications for public policy and corporate strategy towards the information technology industry, including for Australia.