The Magnitude and Distance Decay of Trade in Goods and Services: New Evidence for European Countries

Abstract

Using a newly assembled, consistent and disaggregated dataset (12 goods and 7 services) on internal and bilateral trade for 25 European countries, we analyse the difference between trade in goods and services. The measurement of both trade in goods and trade in services is improved over earlier research, allowing us to compare trade in goods and services in a coherent and systematic way. First, our dataset is made consistent with the domestic demand and production and the total exports and imports at the sector and product levels. Second, we explicitly control for re-exports. We find that, although goods are more often bilaterally traded than services, the volume of bilateral trade in services does not attenuate less with distance than the volume of bilateral trade in goods.     

THE LIFE CYCLE ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS OF CONSUMPTION

This paper reviews assessments of environmental impacts arising from consumption, taking into account the production and disposal of goods consumed. Assessments have mostly focused on understanding household consumption, but there is an increasing interest in understanding government consumption, as well as in the treatment of gross capital formation and trade. National economic and environmental accounts are the most frequently used data source for such studies and input–output techniques are usually applied. For many OECD countries and a few developing countries, assessments address only energy or greenhouse gas emissions. Few studies address a broader range of emissions-related environmental impacts. There is a lack of consideration for important pressures on ecosystems such as habitat change and overexploitation of fisheries and forests. In all countries, housing and food are important. In poor countries, public services can contribute substantially, while in rich countries, mobility and the consumption of manufactured goods is important. In rapidly developing economies, investments, especially in infrastructure and buildings, are important causes of environmental pressure as well. Differences in production conditions and pollution intensities across countries are substantial, so explicitly modelling the production of internationally traded goods using multi-regional input–output analysis is necessary to account correctly for the environmental impacts arising from the consumption of imported goods.     

How is service procurement different from goods procurement? Exploring ex ante costs and ex post problems in IT procurement

Several studies suggest that, in practice, service procurement is more challenging than goods procurement. The underlying but largely implicit argument is that the procurement process for services involves higher buyer uncertainty and therefore requires extra efforts to mitigate this uncertainty. Drawing on Transaction Cost Economics, we use a database of information technology transactions to investigate the relationship between transaction characteristics and social embeddedness, and ex ante cost and ex post problems. We explore whether the same relationships hold across transactions that involve only goods versus transactions that also involve services. Our findings support conventional wisdom that managing the procurement process for transactions involving services is more challenging than for transactions involving goods. However, when controlling for typical transaction characteristics, there is no difference between transactions involving goods and transactions that also involve services.     

Trade and the balance of payments

Net trade was a substantial drag on GDP growth in 2012 and, though that turned around in 2013Q1, this was only due to imports falling by more than exports. The export weakness has been due to the poor performance of services and falling exports of goods to the EU. In contrast exports of goods to non‐EU countries have held up well, rising 3.8% in the three months to May relative to a year ago…     

Patterns of international fragmentation of production and the relative demand for labor

Growing shares of international trade flows consist of intermediate and unfinished goods shipped from one country to another to combine manufacturing or services activities at home with those performed abroad. This configuration of the productive structure has been named “internationally fragmented.” The purpose of our work is to analyze the labor market effects of international fragmentation of production, looking at how it affects relative labor demand. Models of trade due to fragmentation of production suggest that when international fragmentation takes place we might observe changes in factor proportions in the affected industries. We use outward-processing-trade data – specifically related to international fragmentation of production – to test if the shift in the ratio of skilled and unskilled labor employed in Italy and Germany during the 1990s is related to fragmentation.     

The role of outsourcing in driving global carbon emissions

Globalisation has narrowed the gap between producers and consumers of goods and services. The linkages between international trade and carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions have started to be recognised, yet the extent of outsourcing of emissions across nations is unknown. Filling this gap in knowledge is critical for designing effective policy mechanisms for assigning responsibility for reductions in emissions. Here we present a structural decomposition analysis of global trends in outsourcing of emissions from 1990 to 2010 for 186 individual countries. To this end, we disaggregate total CO₂ emissions for each country into contributions from the domestic economy and international trade. This allows us to unveil outsourcing trends for all nations confirming a world-wide shifting of emissions-intensive production across borders. We categorise nations into “outsourcers” – countries that outsource carbon-intensive production to so-called contractor nations. Our detailed assessment of the commodity content of global outsourcing flows reveals interesting insights about the trade of carbon-intensive commodities.     

The effects of free trade agreements on regional wages in China

We empirically study the effects of free trade agreements on regional wages in China using Redding and Venables’ (2004) extended model and manufacturing firm-level data in China from 2000 to 2007. We show that although free trade agreements can, in general, increase firms’ average wage level, they also contribute to increasing the wage gap in China. We also find that free trade agreements can have different effects on firms’ wages across China. In particular, they have stronger effects on average wage levels in land border regions than in coastal regions. Moreover, although firms in land border regions may be located closer to the partner countries of free trade agreements, they may still prefer to use shipping to transport goods. Our findings have important policy implications. In particular, we suggest that free trade agreements with China’s western neighbors should be accompanied by the development of appropriate land transportation networks. Moreover, income tax policy regimes should be differentiated across regions in China.     

Relative productivity growth and the secular “decline” of U.S. manufacturing

There has been considerable debate about the causes of the “decline” of U.S. manufacturing over the post-war period. We show that the behavior of employment, prices and output in manufacturing relative to services over this period can be explained by a two-sector growth model in which productivity shocks are the only driving forces. Household preferences turn out to play a key role in our model. The data are consistent with a specification where households are unwilling to substitute goods for services (the estimated elasticity of substitution is statistically indistinguishable from zero), so the economy adjusts to differential productivity growth entirely by re-allocating labor across sectors.     

GLOBAL VALUE CHAINS: A SURVEY OF DRIVERS AND MEASURES

Global value chains (GVCs) emerged as the paradigm for the international organization of production. For most goods and services production is nowadays vertically fragmented across different countries and this reality gave rise to a significant new strand of research in international trade. This article starts by discussing the major driving forces of GVCs in recent decades. Next, it surveys the main measures of GVCs, accounting for their different scopes and required data sets. The article highlights the timing of the contributions to the literature, signalling their sequential nature and the trend toward more accurate and data‐demanding indicators.     

Do services hold the key to an improved UK trade performance?

The UK has established a central role in the global market for trade in services, ranking second to the US in terms of its share of global exports. Our modelling finds that the key factor behind the UK's success is that its exports are focused on the markets where demand has been growing quickest. This represents a notable contrast with research on UK goods exports, which has found that the geographical focus of goods exports has been the main reason for the UK's persistent underperformance. The global financial crisis caused significant damage to the UK's export performance, particularly to the key financial sector which accounts for a quarter of UK services exports and almost two‐fifths of the UK's surplus on services trade. However, the UK's export performance is on the mend and we expect it to retain its position as a key global player in the market for services over the coming five years.     

改革开放以来我国贸易条件的变动分析与预测

随着我国近几年来经济高速增长,产业结构的不断优化升级,在国际贸易问题上也遇到了许多新的问题。本文将以我国近年来我国制成品贸易以及我国商品贸易条件为研究对象,分析现阶段我国制成品贸易受商品贸易条件恶化和收入贸易条件变化改善的影响,同时对未来两年的商品贸易条件和收入贸易条件以及制成品的出口变动情况进行分析与预测。     

Forecast Summary

Although hard evidence of recovery is still elusive, our forecast indicates that the trough of the recession occurred in the second quarter and that output fell 4 per cent peak-to-trough. We estimate that GDP rose 112 per cent in the third quarter - though only because of a rebound in North Sea oil production - and that for 1991 CIS a whole it will be 2 per cent down on 1990 levels. Next year GDP is forecast to rise 2 per cent but it is not until 1993 that the 1990 output peak is passed. Unemployment therefore still has a considerable way to rise - to a peak of 2.8 million in 1993. In the first year of full EMS membership, the economy has made an accelerated transition to European levels of inflation. Against a background of modest growth, it should be possible to consolidate this progress and we expect retail price inflation to average little more than 3 per cent over the next four years. Similar rapid progress has been achieved on the balance of payments where there is a trade surplus on manufactured goods for the first time since 1982. Here, however, we are less confident that the reduction in the trade gap can be sustained. In the recovery phase we expect imports to rise more rapidly than exports with the result that the current account deficit rises from £6bn this year to £8bn in 1992 and £10bn-£12bn in 1993-5.     

Services trade restrictiveness and manufacturing export sophistication

This paper highlights the importance of services trade liberalization. It is well-known that there is a strong relationship between the level of economic development of a country and the quality of its export basket. Since the pioneering work of Hausmann, Hwang, and Rodrik (2007), several studies have attempted to identify the determinants of export sophistication. In this paper, based on the existing literature, we argue that restrictiveness of services sector trade can have a negative impact on the level of export sophistication. Using panel data from 36 countries over the 2005–2014 period, we show that the impact of services sector trade restrictiveness on export sophistication is negative and statistically significant. We find that this negative effect has increased in the post-2007 period. Furthermore, restrictiveness of trade in modern services is relatively more detrimental to manufacturing export sophistication. A series of endogeneity and robustness tests confirm the reliability of our main empirical result. Our analysis suggests that services sector trade liberalization can also be used as a development strategy by developing countries.     

Should everybody be in services? The effect of servitization on manufacturing firm performance

The servitization of the manufacturing sector refers to the evolution of manufacturers' capabilities to offer services as complements to or substitutes for the goods that they produce. A vast literature has described these strategies and has shown that this phenomenon is widespread and growing in most developed economies. However, very little systematic evidence of the extent or consequences of servitization based on a comprehensive data set of firms exists. In this paper, we provide such evidence using exhaustive data for French manufacturing firms between 1997 and 2007. We find that the vast majority of French manufacturers sell services in addition to producing goods. The shift toward services is growing steadily but at a slow pace. We also estimate the impact of servitization on firm performance. Controlling for various sources of endogeneity bias, our most conservative results show that firms that start selling services increase their profitability by 0.4%, their employment by 2.1%, and their total sales by 0.6%. For small businesses, we also find a positive impact on the production of goods. We also uncover strong heterogeneity across manufacturing industries.     

MEASURING THE DIVERSITY OF HOUSEHOLD SPENDING PATTERNS

Households tend to diversify their spending across a wide range of goods and services as they become more affluent. Recently, there has been growing interest in understanding the precise manner in which this spending diversification process takes place. We review what facts are known about this process and the underlying behavioural tendencies that are thought to drive it. In addition, we clarify the relationship between different approaches to measuring the level of spending diversity. A number of indices are employed, including measures based on joint probabilities, distances and the concept of entropy. Using UK household spending data, we show the extent to which these measures deliver different results and shed light on the nature of behavioural heterogeneity.     

Trade and the balance of payments

The trade data has been particularly volatile this year. After a weak start to 2013, the volume of goods and services exports increased by 3% quarter‐on‐quarter in Q2. But monthly data since has again been weak and a substantial decline in exports looks likely for Q3…     

SUPPLY-USE FRAMEWORK FOR INTERNATIONAL ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY ANALYSIS

The technical variation between countries in the production of goods and services, in terms of not only input coefficients, but also emission coefficients, creates scope for international trade to reduce environmental pressures. For this purpose we extend the theory of trade and the environment as to accommodate technical variation between countries in production and emissions. We use and steer close to the extended input and output tables, which include emission data. By treating environmental standards analogous to capital and labor capacity constraints, the aggregation problem for economic and environmental measures gets the same format as the well-understood aggregation problem for labor and capital. In a pilot application we determine the gains to free trade in products and emission permits.     

Exchange rate volatility and Spanish-American commodity trade flows

A number of recent studies have tested the impact of exchange rate volatility on trade flows, particularly for individual commodities, for various country pairs. These have found that risk can increase as well as decrease trade, but that oftentimes industries are not affected. This study examines trade between the United States and Spain over the period from 1962 to 2009, for 131 U.S. export industries and 88 import industries. We find that exchange rate volatility has short-run and long-run effects in only a fraction of the cases, but that exports respond more to increased uncertainty than imports do. In all, only 35 of the 74 U.S. export industries are affected (11 positive, 24 negative), whilst only three out of 37 import industries have positive coefficients and 11 have negative ones. We find no evidence that durable or nondurable goods are more likely to respond to volatility, whilst small industries or specialized goods might show more of a positive response.     

The Euro Effect on Trade is not as Large as Commonly Thought*

Existing studies on the impact of the euro on goods trade report increments between 5% and 40%. These estimates are based on standard panel gravity models for the level of trade. We show that the residuals from these models exhibit upward trends over time for the euro countries, and that this leads to an upward bias in the estimated euro effect. To correct for that, we extend the standard model by including a time trend that may have different effects across country‐pairs. This results in an estimated euro impact of only 3%.     

Estimation of trade and domestic distortions: an application to world agriculture

The world’s nations often produce commodities for which they have no apparent comparative advantage, and do so with techniques that are not particularly efficient by world standards. These inefficiencies may arise from various forms of trade and domestic distortions, as described in Chau et al., Int Econ Rev 44:1079–1095, (2003). We estimate these distortions for 33 countries of the world using a newly compiled data set. We find that domestic distortions tend to be slightly more important than trade distortions. For the average country, revenues in the agricultural sector would be 26% higher if domestic distortions were eliminated, but 21% higher if trade distortions were eliminated. Our measures of trade and domestic distortions across countries provide a complement to measures of protectionism such as producer subsidy equivalents.