城市道路拥挤定价中的交通需求分析

交通拥挤是许多城市面临的严峻挑战，路网扩张作为传统战略对减少交通拥挤作用不大，城市道路交通拥挤定价逐渐成为有吸引力的交通管理措施。本文探讨了拥挤收费政策对交通需求的影响，采用多项logit(MNL)模型和广义选择logit(GNL)模型分析拥挤收费导致出行者效用函数变化所引起的交通需求结构的变化，给出了交通需求关于拥挤收费标准的弹性计算公式．为拥挤定价政策下的城市交通规划提供需求分析技术。     

折流板式除雾器性能数值模拟

基于Navier-Stokes 方程，分别选择四种不同湍流模型(标准k -ε模型、RSM k-ε模型、realizable k -ε模型、RNG k -ε模型)，采用计算流体动力学方法对除雾器内部流场进行数值模拟。通过对计算结果的分析比较，发现它们在除雾器流场计算中有所不同。 RSM模型能够比其他三个模型更合理地描述除雾器流场特征。采用离散项对除雾器分离效率进行了数值模拟。与实验结果对比发现RSM模型压降最符合实际，且效率计算结果也有一定参考价值，能为以后的折流板除雾器设计提供参考。     

基于离散选择模型的推荐系统改进算法

准确地预估用户的点击率,并根据该概率对商品排序以供用户选择在推荐系统领域有着重要的意义。推荐系统中常用的因子分解机等机器学习模型一般只考虑用户选择单个商品的概率,忽略了候选商品之间的相互影响,离散选择模型则考虑将商品候选集作为整体进行考虑。提出了使用深度学习模型来改进离散选择模型,模型使用相对特征层、注意力机制等网络结构帮助深度学习模型进行不同商品间的特征比较,研究结果表明引入离散选择模型的深度学习模型表现优于梯度提升决策树、因子分解机等模型。     

我国房地产市场风险预警系统选择——基于二元选择模型的分析

本文在总结国内外房地产风险预警研究的基础上,论述了二元选择模型在预警房地产市场风险中的适应性,并利用我国内陆31个省市自治区1999-2012年的面板数据,对房地产市场风险预警指标的选择进行实证分析。probit模型和logit模型结果均显示:我国房地产市场风险初现,土地价格、房地产投资占固定投资的比重及房地产开发贷款额这三个指标较好地吻合了房地产市场的风险,而实际利率和房价增长率比国内生产总值的增长率对房地产市场风险没有明显的拟合作用。     

随机顾客选择需求模型及其在库存管理中的应用

分析一种随机需求模型，它的不确定性由两个不确定因素同时引起；到达市场的顾客的数量的不确定性和每个顾客选择的数量的不确定性。根据顾客选择的数量服从贝努里分布及顾客数量服从离散型分布的情况下建立了随机顾客选择需求模型，并应用于库存管理决策Newsvendor模型中。     

关于流水车间调度问题的综述

流水车间调度问题，也被称为同序作业调度问题，是许多实际流水线生产调度问题的简化模型。它无论是在离散制造工业还是在流程工业中都具有广泛的应用。因此，对其进行研究具有重要的理论意义和工程价值。本文介绍了流水车间调度问题的研究现状和几种解决方法。     

企业员工参与制度有助于劳资纠纷内部消解吗?——来自雇主—雇员匹配调查的证据

本文利用“中国雇主—雇员匹配数据追踪调查(2012)”数据,采取多层线性模型和logit回归分析影响员工选择劳资纠纷消解渠道的因素.研究发现,企业职工代表大会制度和厂务公开制度都有助于员工选择内部渠道解决劳资纠纷,而职工董事监事制度对员工选择劳资纠纷解决渠道的偏好没有显著影响.同时,在职工代表大会制度下,职工代表由员工选举会有助于这项参与制度在内部消解劳资纠纷中发挥作用.在此基础上,文章提出了完善员工参与制度运行的建议.     

文本生成模型研究

文本的生成模型是基于文本向量空间表示基础上,针对文本数据的概率表示,针对文本的产生过程进行统计建模的方法。生成模型的优势在于在准确描述表示文本的前提下,达到提高文本挖掘效率的目的。同时,根植于概率统计的生成模型,拥有一整套用于模型学习、推论、模型比较、选择的理论和方法,是其他非统计方法所无法比拟的。本文介绍了用于描述可交换的离散数据集合主要的几种概率生成模型,在向量空间表示的基础上能够捕捉不同程度的词与词之间的上下文(主题)依赖性,因而在英文文本的挖掘上得到了一定程度的应用和肯定。     

产品生命周期中的质量波动

本文建立了一个动态规划模型，来描述垄断者对价格和质量的同时决定，其中假设成本分为两部分，一部分用来保持生产，另一部分维持质量。在这种假设下，垄断者的最优选择会使得产品生命周期上存在质量波动现象，维持不变的价格和质量只是一种不稳定的均衡。在离散模型中更显示在生命周期的尾端质量呈下降趋势。这给出了一种常见现象的可能解释。     

不动产估价中可比数据的选择

市场法是目前主要的几种不动产估价方法中应用最为广泛的。在用市场法评估不动产时，单个不动产和投资组合中不动产所选择的数据应该是不同的。本文旨在说明这种差异，以及在两种情况下应如何选择数据，并且给出了两种情况下的差异分析来解释为何两种情况下不能选择同样的数据。     

Development in Information and Communications Technology (ICT) Statistics at the Australian Bureau of Statistics

This paper outlines the ICT statistical developments that the ABS has undertaken over recent years. These developments have been on both the supply side (ICT industry) and the demand side (use of IT by sector). The content of ABS ICT surveys has changed significantly over the last few years and are expected to develop further in line with industry changes and emerging policy needs.
Recent developments in household collections have been the inclusion of IT use questions in the 2001 Census of Population and Housing and in various ABS social surveys such as Children's Participation in Culture and Leisure Activities. Annual business IT use surveys are now conducted and include topics such as Internet commerce and IT security. Biennial ICT industry surveys are conducted to provide data on ICT production, imports and exports, ICT industry employment, performance and structure information. An Internet activity survey is run every six months and provides regional Internet access details and infrastructure details on Internet service providers.
A major development for 2002–03 will be the compilation of an ICT satellite account. ABS intends to produce an ICT Information Development Plan to guide its future statistical development work in the ICT field.     

Value at Risk in the Suburbs: Eminent Domain and the Geographical Politics of the US Foreclosure Crisis

Several US counties and local governments have recently considered a novel solution to the foreclosure crisis. They plan to use eminent domain to compel the owners of mortgage debt—and specifically of private‐label mortgage‐backed securities—to sell the debt to the government at a price reflecting the loan's market value. The government would then restructure the debt and resell it to new investors. The plans are striking because—in contrast to both development‐driven eminent domain and the federal subprime bank bailout—they would force investors to assume asset devaluation and increased long‐term risk. Notably, the plans have emerged as an instance of financialization‐focused politics in suburbs and suburban cities of color, specifically majority‐black and ‐Latino/a suburbs. Local support for the plans, we argue, is rooted in the long‐term disinvestment of these ‘suburbs of exception', which became targets of subprime lending and eventually sites where the ‘financial exception' has been localized. But these demographic shifts, fragmentation and fiscal pressures have at the same time created a suburban political terrain in which the plans have gained their strongest political support.     

Towards a Theory of Serendipity: A Systematic Review and Conceptualization

Serendipity – the notion of making surprising and valuable discoveries – plays a major role in the success of individuals and organizations alike. Previous research has established the importance of serendipity and identified important individual- and organizational-level antecedents. However, the literature has been dispersed and the boundaries of the concept have been blurry, leading to a lack of conceptual clarity and structure, and thus limiting validity and managerial actionability. Based on a systematic literature review, I synthesize existing management-related research on serendipity and explicate the emergence and composition of serendipity in the organizational context. I first identify three necessary conditions that differentiate serendipity from related concepts such as luck or targeted innovation: agency, surprise, and value. Then, I draw from the literature on sensemaking, event-based theorizing, and quantum-based approaches to management to conceptualize the process of cultivating serendipity in the organizational context as a process of enabling potentiality and materialization, and develop a multi-level theory of (cultivating) serendipity. This conceptualization contributes to our collective understanding of how, why, and when (i.e., under what conditions) organizations can leverage the value in the unexpected, which opens up fruitful avenues for further research.     

Accountability of NGOs in Bangladesh A critical overview

NGOs in Bangladesh have been recognized as effective change agents in the socio-economic arena throughout the world. Their contributions in micro credit, non-formal education and primary health care are widely known. NGOs play a significant role in society. NGO accountability, as a result, has become a critical issue. NGO accountability in Bangladesh has been examined here in relation to patrons, clients and themselves. Of the three relationships only accountability to patrons is in a near satisfactory state. Accountability to clients is handicapped by lack of opportunities of beneficiaries to participate meaningfully in NGO policy making. Accountability to themselves is adversely affected due to the adherence to a strictly hierarchical system and the influence of founding and charismatic NGO leaders.     

Towards an Asian model of human resource management? A comparative analysis of China,Japan and South Korea

There has been much discussion regarding the possible decline and weakening of national systems of human resource management (HRM). Yet, culture and institutions are often cited as the major stumbling blocks to this outcome. Such constraints may dissipate in the analysis, particularly if ‘regional clusters’ are considered where geographic and cultural closeness and ‘openness’ to similar economic pressures exist. In such cases, it might be postulated that convergence in HRM will occur. We argue that China, Japan and South Korea represent such a cluster. This article examines these countries, to see if a degree of convergence is taking place and if it is towards an identifiable ‘Asian’ model of HRM. A model of change is presented that distinguishes between levels of occurrence and acceptance. Details of the development and practice of HRM in each country are then set out. The article ends with a discussion and implications section and a brief conclusion.     

Ansätze und Ergebnisse anglo-amerikanischer M&A-Forschung

Based on a review of established U.S. management journals (1995–2003), six schools of thought are identified within the Anglo-American M&;A research: “Capital Market”, “Principal/Agent”, “Industrial Organization”, “Organizational Behavior”, “Human Resources” and “Strategic Management”. The literature review shows that the definition of M&;A success, the methods applied, and insights from empirical research differ according to the respective school of thought. Empirical studies focus on the resource combinations of merger partners, the specific circumstances of merger negotiations, and on integration management as antecedents of merger performance. Unfortunately, empirical findings have not yet provided reliable explanations for M&;A success. Based on the current state of Anglo-American M&;A research, the authors discuss implications for business practice, identify research gaps, and propose areas for future research.     

Introduction of New Technology with a Sound Transition of the Input-Output Structure

We examine the general equilibrium repercussions associated with the introduction of new technologies, using the generalized Leontief system that allows technological substitutions. We show that an untested introduction of cost-increasing technologies in any industry may result in creating a non-productive technological structure that does not satisfy the Hawkins-Simon condition, following the autonomous dynamic adjustment process with structural transitions in the economic system. Therefore, we propose a practicable control scheme of introducing cost-increasing technologies that strictly avoids the creation of non-productive structures in all periods of structural transition, using the available information on the ex ante technological structure.     

The Creation of the Office for National Statistics

A new Office for National Statistics was created in the United Kingdom in 1996 following a series of developments designed to strengthen the relevance and integrity of statistics. This paper describes these fundamental changes and sets out a blueprint for future progress. It also sets current developments in the United Kingdom in an historical and international context.     

What helps? Women engineers' accounts of staying on

We have considerable understanding of the obstacles that women engineers encounter and the reasons that they leave the field, but we know less about what enables them to remain. Adopting an interpretivist approach, this article examines how a group of British women engineers in two FTSE 100 companies account for “staying on” in their male‐dominated work settings. We delineate four specific forms of help that facilitate women's retention in the field. We argue that exposure to help leads to women developing a habitus that enables them to continue working in engineering. To conclude, we draw on our findings to outline HR practices that will facilitate supportive relationships in the workplace and pave the way towards developing more positive organisational climates.     

论现代物流企业的发展观

物流业经过诸多年的发展目前已经成为最热门的行业之一,物流企业的注册数量也与日俱增,达到前所未有的规模。毋庸置疑,任何企业都希望自己迅速做强做大,并成为真正现代物流企业的典型代表,要实现这一目标一个首要问题就是要解决现代物流企业的发展观问题。