Bank Risk Taking at the Onset of the Current Banking Crisis

We analyze bank governance, share ownership, CEO compensation, and bank risk taking in the period leading to the current banking crisis. Using a sample of large U.S. bank holding companies (BHCs), we find that BHCs with greater managerial control, achieved through various corporate governance mechanisms, take less risk. BHCs that pay CEOs high base salaries also take less risk, while BHCs that grant CEOs more in stock options or that pay CEOs higher bonuses take more risk. The evidence is generally consistent with BHC managers exhibiting greater risk aversion than outside shareholders, but with several factors affecting managers’ risk‐taking incentives.     

Capital Structure Determinants for Tax‐Exempt Organisations: Evidence from the UK

Abstract: This study looks into the determinants of capital structure in the absence of tax incentives. I find that attributes normally associated with debt use for taxable corporations are likewise correlated with debt use in the tax‐exempt sector. These include the organisation's age, asset tangibility, governance structure, industry grouping, liquidity, profitability, and size. Tax‐exempt sector‐specific findings indicate that debt use is also related to the size of the organisation's endowment and the amount of voluntary income. This study also demonstrates the portability of the theory of capital structure by extending the findings in Smith (2010) beyond the United States.     

A Time Series Analysis of Financial Fragility in the UK Banking System

This paper extends the model proposed by Goodhart, Sunirand, and Tsomocos (2004, 2005, 2006) to an infinite horizon setting. Thus, we are able to assess how the model conforms with the time series data of the UK banking system. We conclude that, since the model performs satisfactorily, it can be readily used to assess financial fragility given its flexibility, computability, and the presence of multiple contagion channels and heterogeneous banks and investors. JEL Classification Numbers C68, E4, E5, G11, G21 We are grateful to seminar participants at the Bank of England, European Central Bank, University of Oxford, University of Pireaus, 59th International Atlantic Economic Conference, London and especially an anonymous referee for helpful comments and suggestions     

Long‐Term Effects of Fiscal Policy on the Size and Distribution of the Pie in the UK*

This paper provides a joint analysis of the output and distributional long‐term effects of various fiscal policies in the UK, using a vector autoregression (VAR) approach. Our findings suggest that the long‐term impact on GDP of increasing public spending and taxes is negative, and especially strong in the case of current expenditure. We also find significant distributional effects associated with fiscal policies, indicating that an increase in public spending reduces inequality while a rise in indirect taxes increases income inequality.     

The Effect of Financial Incentives on Labour Supply: Evidence for Lone Parents from Microsimulation and Quasi‐Experimental Evaluation*

The aim of this paper is to analyse the work incentive effects of a change in the Australian tax and transfer system on lone parents in July 2000. To evaluate the effect of the total change only, microsimulation can be used; but for a subgroup of lone parents, a few components of this policy change can be analysed through two alternative approaches — microsimulation and quasi‐experimental evaluation. Both approaches examine the effects on the probability of employment and on average working hours. The results from microsimulation show that the combined changes introduced in July 2000 — involving reduced withdrawl rates, changed family payments and lower income tax rates — have increased labour supply for lone parents to a moderate extent. The estimated effect on average working hours when using microsimulation is very close to the effect estimated in a quasi‐experimental approach using matching techniques to control for alternative influences.     

The Performance of the Foreign‐Owned Sector of UK Manufacturing: Some Evidence and Implications for UK Inward Investment Policy

This paper analyses the reported performance of foreign‐owned manufacturing subsidiaries in the UK between 1994 and 1998. The paper is set in the context of uncertainty about the performance of some foreign‐owned sectors of UK manufacturing and the implications of this performance for the beneficial spillover effects sought by policy‐makers from foreign‐owned capital. Japanese‐owned subsidiaries are the focus of particular attention, with reported profits and tax liabilities significantly below those of subsidiaries from other national sources. The wider ramifications of this finding are analysed for the UK case, particularly in terms of the need to take into account the wider exchequer effects of inward investment in the general evaluation of the financial assistance provided to foreign firms.     

On the Asymmetric U‐Shaped Relationship between Inflation,Inflation Uncertainty,and Relative Price Skewness in the UK

We investigate the asymmetric relationships between aggregate inflation and the second and third moments of the cross‐sectional distribution of relative prices using a modified Calvo pricing model with regime‐dependent price rigidities. Calibration experiments reveal that the inflation‐standard deviation and inflation‐skewness relationships exhibit U‐shaped asymmetries around the historical mean inflation rate. UK sectoral data support our results. We conclude that monetary policy should target an inflation rate proximate to the (common) minima of these nonlinear relationships and that core inflation measures should not be used for policy purposes as they exclude much of the information contained in the higher moments.     

An analysis of majority owner‐managed companies in the UK

This paper investigates the characteristics of 73 UK companies in which managers have an ownership stake of greater than 50 per cent. We find that majority owner‐managed companies make less use of alternative corporate control systems and are less likely to remove their chief executive officer or other board members following poor performance. However, our sample firms actually outperform diffusely held companies of similar size in the same industry. The determinants of majority control appear more closely related to the characteristics of the controlling shareholders rather than the firm's operating environment. Changes in the ownership structure of our sample companies owe more to changes in owner‐specific characteristics and security issuance than they are related to changes in the company's operating environment or company performance. We conclude that despite the obvious agency costs of managerial entrenchment for closely held companies, for the present sample at least the incentive alignment benefits of large director shareholdings are beneficial to outside shareholders.     

Identifying the Stance of Monetary Policy at the Zero Lower Bound: A Markov‐Switching Estimation Exploiting Monetary‐Fiscal Policy Interdependence

In this paper, I propose an econometric technique to estimate a Markov‐switching Taylor rule subject to the zero lower bound of interest rates. I show that linking the switching of the Taylor rule coefficients to the switching of the coefficients of an auxiliary uncensored Markov‐switching regression improves the identification of an otherwise unidentifiable prevalent monetary regime because of the presence of the zero lower bound. Using a Markov‐switching fiscal policy rule as the auxiliary regression, I apply the estimation technique to U.S. data. Results show evidence of monetary and fiscal policy comovements, with monetary policy reacting weakly to inflation when fiscal policy is focused on real activity as opposed to debt stabilization, and vice versa.     

Non‐Monotonicity of the Tversky‐Kahneman Probability‐Weighting Function: A Cautionary Note

Cumulative Prospect Theory has gained a great deal of support as an alternative to Expected Utility Theory as it accounts for a number of anomalies in the observed behavior of economic agents. Expected Utility Theory uses a utility function and subjective or objective probabilities to compare risky prospects. Cumulative Prospect Theory alters both of these aspects. The concave utility function is replaced by a loss‐averse utility function and probabilities are replaced by decision weights. The latter are determined with a weighting function applied to the cumulative probability of the outcomes. Several different probability weighting functions have been suggested. The two most popular are the original proposal of Tversky and Kahneman and the compound‐invariant form proposed by Prelec. This note shows that the Tversky‐Kahneman probability weighting function is not increasing for all parameter values and therefore can assign negative decision weights to some outcomes. This in turn implies that Cumulative Prospect Theory could make choices not consistent with first‐order stochastic dominance.     

Risk reporting: A study of risk disclosures in the annual reports of UK companies

The concepts of risk and risk management have received considerable attention lately, but this has yet to be reflected in empirical research examining firms’ risk reporting practices. This study seeks to address this gap in the literature and explores risk disclosures within a sample of 79 UK company annual reports using content analysis. A significant association is found between the number of risk disclosures and company size. Similarly a significant association is found between the number of risk disclosures and level of environmental risk as measured by Innovest EcoValue`21™ Ratings. However, no association is found between the number of risk disclosures and five other measures of risk: gearing ratio, asset cover, quiscore, book to market value of equity and beta factor. The paper also discusses the nature of the risk disclosures made by the sample companies specifically examining their time orientation, whether they are monetarily quantified and if good or bad risk news is disclosed. It was uncommon to find monetary assessments of risk information, but companies did exhibit a willingness to disclose forward-looking risk information. Overall the dominance of statements of general risk management policy and a lack of coherence in the risk narratives implies that a risk information gap exists and consequently stakeholders are unable to adequately assess the risk profile of a company.     

Corporate Sell‐offs in the UK: Use of Proceeds,Financial Distress and Long‐run Impact on Shareholder Wealth

This study examines the long‐run return performance following UK corporate sell‐off announcements. We observe significant negative abnormal returns up to five years subsequent to sell‐off announcements. Our finding is robust to various specifications, irrespective of the intended use of proceeds. We also find a significantly positive association between long‐run abnormal returns and the magnitude of cash proceeds for sellers reducing corporate debt as well as for sellers with deeper financial distress or higher growth prospects. Overall, we find that UK corporate sell‐offs are associated with declines in subsequent shareholder wealth.     

Limits‐to‐arbitrage,investment frictions,and the investment effect: New evidence

This study comprehensively reexamines the debate over behavioral and rational explanations for the investment effect in an updated sample. We closely follow the previous literature and provide several differences. Our tests include five prominent measures of corporate investment and corporate profitability in q‐theory and recent investment‐based asset pricing models. Both classical and Bayesian inferences show that limits‐to‐arbitrage tend to be supported by more evidence than investment frictions for all investment measures. When idiosyncratic volatility and cash flow volatility are used in measuring investment frictions, the inference is more favorable for the rational explanation.     

Stock‐Based Compensation in a Concentrated Ownership Setting: An Empirical Investigation

Stock‐based compensation has been viewed as an important mechanism for tying managers’ wealth to firm performance, and thus alleviating the agency conflict between the shareholders and the managers when ownership is diffused. However, in a concentrated ownership structure, controlling owners are usually the management of the firm; they can engage in self‐dealing activities to the detriment of minority shareholders’ interests. Yet, outside investors may anticipate the problem and discount the share price for the entrenchment behaviors they observe. In this study, we investigate how controlling owners trade off the benefits and the costs of using stock‐based compensation. Based on a sample of Taiwanese firms, our evidence shows that stock‐based compensation is negatively related to the agency problem embedded in a concentrated ownership structure. This relationship is evident among firms with more frequent equity offerings. Overall, our empirical evidence suggests that controlling owners consider the negative price effects of stock‐based compensation and trade off these costs with the benefits of expropriating minority shareholders’ interests, particularly when firms seek more external equity capital. Our results hold after controlling for selection bias and share collateral by controlling owners.     

Changes in Non‐current Assets and in Property,Plant and Equipment and Future Stock Returns: The UK Evidence

We examine the effect of changes in non‐current operating assets (NCOA) and of changes in property, plant and equipment (PPE) on future abnormal stock returns using a sample of 21,549 UK non‐financial firm observations over the 1990–2012 event period. The results from a matching portfolio procedure and 4‐factor regressions indicate that abnormal returns from investing in a portfolio of low‐minus‐high quintile NCOA and PPE change firms are between 5.5% and 6.1%. This negative association is confirmed by cross‐sectional regressions. The economic significance of mispricing seems weaker than in the US and weaker than the mispricing of working capital accruals adjusted for depreciation in the UK. Changes in PPE drive the predictability of share returns with respect to changes in NCOA. There is no significant evidence that return predictability is stronger in less liquid firms. We find two strands of evidence that lend some support to behavioural explanations of predictability through overreaction to investment. On one hand, fundamental information about investment explains one‐third of the predictability of returns while, on the other, predictability is generally not significantly stronger in firms with high operating leverage as a proxy for risk.     

A neural‐network‐based decision‐making model in the peer‐to‐peer lending market

This study proposes an investment recommendation model for peer‐to‐peer (P2P) lending. P2P lenders usually are inexpert, so helping them to make the best decision for their investments is vital. In this study, while we aim to compare the performance of different artificial neural network (ANN) models, we evaluate loans from two perspectives: risk and return. The net present value (NPV) is considered as the return variable. To the best of our knowledge, NPV has been used in few studies in the P2P lending context. Considering the advantages of using NPV, we aim to improve decision‐making models in this market by the use of NPV and the integration of supervised learning and optimization algorithms that can be considered as one of our contributions. In order to predict NPV, three ANN models are compared concerning mean square error, mean absolute error, and root‐mean‐square error to find the optimal ANN model. Furthermore, for the risk evaluation, the probability of default of loans is computed using logistic regression. Investors in the P2P lending market can share their assets between different loans, so the procedure of P2P investment is similar to portfolio optimization. In this context, we minimize the risk of a portfolio for a minimum acceptable level of return. To analyse the effectiveness of our proposed model, we compare our decision‐making algorithm with the output of a traditional model. The experimental results on a real‐world data set show that our model leads to a better investment concerning both risk and return.     

Is Investment‐Cash Flow Sensitivity Caused by Agency Costs or Asymmetric Information? Evidence from the UK

We investigate the investment‐cash flow sensitivity of a large sample of the UK listed firms and confirm that investment is strongly cash flow‐sensitive. Is this sensitivity a result of agency problems when managers with high discretion overinvest, or of asymmetric information when managers owning equity are underinvesting if the market (erroneously) demands too high a risk premium? We find that investment‐cash flow sensitivity results mainly from the agency costs of free cash flow. The magnitude of the relationship depends on insider ownership in a non‐monotonic way. Furthermore, we obtain that outside blockholders, such as financial institutions, the government, and industrial firms (only at high control levels), reduce the cash flow sensitivity of investment via effective monitoring. Finally, financial institutions appear to play a role in mitigating informational asymmetries between firms and capital markets. We corroborate our findings by performing additional tests based on the stochastic efficient frontier approach and power indices.     

Monetary Policy Estimation in Real Time: Forward‐Looking Taylor Rules without Forward‐Looking Data

I propose a methodology for estimating forward‐looking Taylor rules in real time when forward‐looking real‐time central bank data are unavailable. The methodology consists of choosing appropriate models to closely replicate U.S. Greenbook forecasts and then applying these models to Canada, Germany, and the U.K. The results show that German and U.S. Taylor rules are characterized by inflation coefficients increasing with the forecast horizon and a positive output gap response. The U.K. and Canada interest rate reaction functions achieve maximum inflation response at middle‐term horizons of about 1/2 years and the output gap coefficient is insignificant.     

Margin practices and requirements during the National Banking Era: An early example of macro‐prudential regulation

The New York stock market was plagued by a series of financial crises during the National Banking Era, culminating in the Panic of 1907. The traditional view holds that the crises were rooted in structural flaws related to trade settlement as well as excessive and indiscriminate margin lending that remained unaddressed until the formation of the Federal Reserve Bank. An examination of the historical record, however, shows that brokers sought to control contagion and spillover effects through reform of the settlement process and by modulating margin lending rates and maintenance requirements according to macroeconomic conditions, counterparty credit‐worthiness and market volatility. Using newly gathered archival data, we show that the New York Stock Exchange enacted macro‐prudential regulations that may have reduced the severity of crises during this period. By providing early evidence of private sector responses to rising systemic risk, the paper addresses an important aspect of early market microstructure.     

Exchange Rate Changes and Inflation in Post‐Crisis Asian Economies: Vector Autoregression Analysis of the Exchange Rate Pass‐Through

Macro‐economic consequences of large currency depreciations among the crisis‐hit Asian economies varied from one country to another. Inflation did not soar after the Asian currency crisis of 1997–98 in most crisis‐hit countries except Indonesia where high inflation followed a very large nominal depreciation of the rupiah. The high inflation meant a loss of price competitive advantage, a key for economic recovery from a crisis. This paper examines the pass‐through effects of exchange rate changes on the domestic prices in the East Asian economies using a vector autoregression analysis. The main results are as follows: (i) the degree of exchange rate pass‐through to import prices was quite high in the crisis‐hit economies; (ii) the pass‐through to Consumer Price Index (CPI) was generally low, with a notable exception of Indonesia; and (iii) in Indonesia, both the impulse response of monetary policy variables to exchange rate shocks and that of CPI to monetary policy shocks were positive, large, and statistically significant. Thus, Indonesia's accommodative monetary policy, coupled with the high degree of CPI responsiveness to exchange rate changes was an important factor in the inflation‐depreciation spiral in the wake of the currency crisis.