实际经济周期理论与宏观经济政策"时间一致性"理论述评

实际经济周期理论认为“周期性的波动根源在于供给”。“时间一致性”理论对宏观经济政策运用中“时间一致性难题”的分析研究,为经济政策特别是货币政策的实际有效运用提供了思路;在对商业周期的研究中探讨了引起商业周期波动的各种因素和各因素间相互关系。本文旨在综合述评实际经济周期理论与宏观经济政策“时间一致性”理论的杰出贡献。     

动态不一致性和真实经济周期（RBC）

瑞典皇家科学院2004年10月11日宣布，2004年诺贝尔经济学奖授予真实经济周期学派的代表人物挪威经济学家基德兰德和美国经济学家普雷斯科特。普雷斯科特和基德兰德的贡献，主要在于揭示了对未来经济政策的预期可能会导致动态一致性问题以及真实经济周期。     

真实经济周期:理论、政策及其应用分析——2004年度诺贝尔经济学奖得主的理论贡献述评

2004的诺贝尔经济学奖授给了基德兰德和普雷斯科特,两位学者是真实经济周期理论的开创者。本文介绍了真实经济周期的理论观点和政策含义,并分析了其在宏观经济学研究和现实经济运行中的应用。     

实际经济周期理论的应用与借鉴

实际经济周期理论认为,周期性的波动根源在于供给."时间一致性"理论对宏观经济政策运用中"时间一致性难题"的分析研究,为经济政策特别是货币政策的实际有效运用提供了思路,并在对商业周期的研究中探讨了引起渡动的各种因素及其相互关系.虽然RBC理论并不十分适用于中国经济,但还是能给我国的经济发展不少的理论启示与借鉴.     

基德兰德和普雷斯科特对商业周期理论的贡献

2004年经济学诺贝尔奖授予了在宏观经济研究的相关领域做出突出贡献的两位经济学家:挪威经济学家芬恩·基德兰德(Finn Kydland)和美国经济学家爱德华·普雷斯科特(Edwards Prescott)。他们的贡献主要在两方面:宏观经济政策的制定和商业周期。     

真实经济周期理论对大萧条的重新解释

2008—2009年发生的金融危机再次引起了人们对大萧条这一最特殊经济史事件的关注。真实经济周期理论凭借动态一般均衡分析框架和"真实再现世界"的数值模拟技术,对大萧条的起因和缓慢复苏给出了具有颠覆性的解释:以技术冲击为主的外部冲击引起了1929年大的衰退,胡佛的企业联合政策将一次大的衰退转化为大萧条,而1934年到1939年美国经济缓慢复苏的根源是试图将经济拉出泥潭的"罗斯福新政"。针对我国学术界在该方面研究的不足,本文在对大萧条争论全面回顾的基础上,对真实经济周期理论对大萧条的重新解释进行了全面介绍和系统分析。文章的最后还对政府干预是否有益于经济危机的解决进行了反思。     

解决经济政策时间一致性问题的声誉约束:文献综述

声誉模型是解决经济政策时间不一致性的方法之一。文章对不完全信息条件下声誉模型的建立,以及带来的多重均衡,与之相关的法律约束等进行文献综述,以期对进一步的研究提供一些帮助。     

非均衡劳动力市场的真实经济周期模型

真实经济周期(RBC)模型通常以市场出清的一般均衡为其理论框架。这使我们无法有效的将这一跨时期的动态优化模型应用于现实的经济环境,因为现实的世界里普遍存在着各种非均衡的状况。本文将劳动的供给和需求分离开来,从而允许非均衡的劳动力市场存在。利用美国的数据,我们对该模型进行了实证检验,结果表明该模型能够更好的解释劳动力市场的波动及消费和就业间的关系,同时说明该模型在数据的拟和上比标准RBC模型更好。     

2004年诺贝尔经济学奖得主最优政策的时间一致性理论的介绍

基德兰德和普雷斯科特最早将博弈论引入到宏观经济学中，讨论了宏观政策的时间一致性问题。他们认为政策制定者面对的不是与一成不变的大自然之间的简单博弈，而是与理性个体之间进行的动态博弈，理性个体能够观察并预期到政府政策会随着经济环境的变化而变化，从而使许多经济政策的可信度下降，这时时间一致性问题就会产生。政策制定者应该按规则行事，而下能采取相机抉择的方式，因为相机抉择方式意味着已知现在的情况来选择最优的决策。这种行为或者会导致一致但却次优的计划，或者会使得经济不稳定。基德兰德和普雷斯科特的工作奠定了经济政策可信性和政治可行性研究的基础，宏观政策的时间一致性问题对很多国家的货币及财政政策的现实操作也具有重要的指导意义。     

中央银行的独立性与通货膨胀--基于货币政策时间非一致性的一个理论分析

基于对历史上中央银行独立性与通货膨胀之间关系的考察,在分析货币政策的时间非一致性基础上,认为中央银行的独立性跟通货膨胀之间没有必然联系;通货膨胀大小受中央银行对其偏好的影响。     

Tax Evasion and the Time Consistency of the Government's Income Tax Policy

It is shown that it is not necessarily optimal for the government to tax capital income at a high rate even when capital is in fixed supply because the supply of capital for tax purposes may be elastic if capital income tax evasion occurs. An example is given where the wage tax rate is positive and greater than the interest income tax rate even though capital is in fixed supply. Conditions are also derived under which the capital income tax rate is lower in the closed-loop policy game, where capital is fixed, than in the open-loop game, where it is not.
JEL Classification Numbers: E61, H26.     

Evolutionary Theory and Economic Policy with Reference to Sustainability

Synopsis The policy recommendations of most economists are driven by a view of economic reality embodied in Walrasian general equilibrium theory. Ironically, the Walrasian system has been all but abandoned by leading economic theorists. It has been demonstrated to be theoretically untenable, its basic assumptions about human decision making have been empirically falsified, and it consistently makes poor predictions of economic behavior. The current revolution in welfare economics offers opportunities on two related fronts for an evolutionary perspective on human behavior to reshape economic theory and policy. The first opportunity is to incorporate empirically-based information about human behavior to the study of human wants and their formation. This includes information about the evolution of the genetic component of decision making as well as the cultural dimensions of behavior. Expanding the role of economic analysis beyond stylized market behavior to focus on well-being (real utility) has far-reaching consequences for microeconomic policy. Secondly, abandoning the Walrasian model also means rethinking the microfoundations approach to the economic analysis of sustainability. This opens the door for economists to engage with the growing body of research on the evolution of whole societies. One link between the evolution of human behavior and the evolution of human societies is the psychological phenomenon of considering sunk costs. Understanding and overcoming the sunk cost fallacy may be the key to creating a sustainable society.     

Evolutionary Aspects of Corporate Concentration and Its Implications for Economic Theory and Policy

Thorstein Veblen's class analysis implicitly was a critique of the class analysis of some Marxists, who reduced the interdependence of economic base and ideological superstructure to a causal link from the former to the latter. Veblen's emphasis on the directive to take culture into account occurs later in Antonio Gramsci's theoretical innovations: namely, class struggle for cultural hegemony and the importance of the organic intellectual as ferment for class emergence. Gramsci was experiencing the mass movement of fascism, and the (now) classic analysis of social classes became an urgently needed extension to explain class evolution. Today, capitalism is in deep crisis once again. This paper argues that the drivers of the next revolutionary upheaval will, once more, be the social classes — particularly, the newly emerging ones. We graft ideas of Veblen onto concepts suggested by Gramsci to enhance the theoretical toolbox necessary to understand contemporary global class dynamics.     

论财富的时间原理

从分析时间观、财富观的变迁出发,论证了经济学、时间、财富之间的历史逻辑,认为现代经济学采用的是绝对时间观,财富主要建立在物理时间度量之上,经济学虽以心理分析为基础,但未引入心理时间的研究.针对现代经济学的缺陷,从广义虚拟经济视角对财富与时间的本质进行了重新解读,诠释了时间价值的经济学意义,根据虚拟价值非边际化和信息态的特点,提出财富的时间价值可分解为物理时间价值和心理时间价值.虚拟价值主要用心理时间度量.虚拟价值拟物化和时间寻租是发展虚拟经济的重要法则.     

The Euro and Internal Economic Policy Coordination

This paper reviews, mainly from an institutional angle, the objectives, forms, scope, levels, implementation and challenges involved for internal economic policy coordination after the introduction of the euro on 1 January 1999. In particular, it identifies six different aspects of coordination (procedures, exchange of information, analytical framework, monitoring, policy interactions and joint determination of policies) and analyses the rationale for coordination in eight different policy areas. After presenting some of the challenges lying ahead, the paper concludes that although an appropriate institutional framework seems in place, it still has to undergo its baptism of fire.