Do better schools lead to more growth? Cognitive skills, economic outcomes, and causation

We develop a new metric for the distribution of educational achievement across countries that can further track the cognitive skill distribution within countries and over time. Cross-country growth regressions generate a close relationship between educational achievement and GDP growth that is remarkably stable across extensive sensitivity analyses of specification, time period, and country samples. In a series of now-common microeconometric approaches for addressing causality, we narrow the range of plausible interpretations of this strong cognitive skills-growth relationship. These alternative estimation approaches, including instrumental variables, difference-in-differences among immigrants on the U.S. labor market, and longitudinal analysis of changes in cognitive skills and in growth rates, leave the stylized fact of a strong impact of cognitive skills unchanged. Moreover, the results indicate that school policy can be an important instrument to spur growth. The shares of basic literates and high performers have independent relationships with growth, the latter being larger in poorer countries.     

How sensitive are bargaining outcomes to changes in disagreement payoffs?

We use a human-subjects experiment to investigate how bargaining outcomes are affected by changes in bargainers’ disagreement payoffs. Subjects bargain against changing opponents, with randomly drawn asymmetric disagreement outcomes that vary over plays of the game, and with complete information about disagreement payoffs and the cake size. We find that subjects only respond about half as much as theoretically predicted to changes in their own disagreement payoff and to changes in their opponent’s disagreement payoff. This effect is observed in a standard Nash demand game and a related unstructured bargaining game, in both early and late rounds, and is robust to moderate changes in stake sizes. We show theoretically that standard models of expected utility maximisation are unable to account for this under-responsiveness, even when generalised to allow for risk aversion. We also show that quantal-response equilibrium has, at best, mixed success in characterising our results. However, a simple model of other-regarding preferences can explain our main results.     

The gender gap in university enrolment: Do parents play a role beyond investing in skills?

Young men are far less likely than women to attend university across most OECD countries. I use data from the Youth in Transition Survey (YITS) to investigate this issue in the Canadian context, focusing on how parents might influence this gender gap. In particular, my goal is to isolate the incremental effect of parents’ valuations of education during the teenage years, holding constant the stock of skills acquired up to that point. To estimate this effect, I use a factor model based on a framework developed by Foley et al. (2014). My results confirm the importance of skills in determining the gender gap in university attendance. I also find that differences in the distribution of parental valuations of education account for 22% of the gender gap in the YITS data, pointing toward an important role that parents play, not accounted for in prior work.     

Do asset sales lead to improvements in operating performance?

The changes in operating performance associated with asset sales are investigated for a sample of UK firms. Asset sales are followed by an improvement of 11% per annum in the level of operating performance relative to the pre-sale performance level. Further, improved abnormal operating performance is found, which is measured after controlling for the performance of the industry, the pre-sale performance of the firm and the level of competition in the market for asset sales. The abnormal operating performance of the remaining assets improve by 2.4% per annum, on average, for three years after the asset sales. This study also finds that the market for asset sales is imperfectly competitive.     

Is emigration of workers contributing to better schooling outcomes in Nepal?

This paper presents evidence on how emigration for work affects schooling outcomes for primary and secondary school‐age children in Nepal. Using an instrumental variable strategy exploiting past migration network, we show that the identified effects critically depend on how schooling outcomes are measured. While conventional measures of school attendance indicate no impact, our new set of schooling status and schooling gap measures reveals significant impacts. Schooling status measures reveal favorable impacts for girls, and for emigration to India. Schooling gap measures reveal favorable effects of all emigration on schooling outcomes for girls and of emigration to other countries for boys.     

Do peers affect childhood obesity outcomes? Peer‐effect analysis in public schools

This study investigates whether obese peers are a contributing factor in childhood body‐weight outcomes. Using an instrumental variables method on exogenously assigned peers (i.e., new peers), we find that the weight of peers within the same grade and school significantly impacts body mass index (BMI) z‐score of an individual student. The size of the peer effect, however, is negligible. We find no evidence of interaction between newly assigned peer groups prior to assignment. Furthermore, the obese peers variable is significant only for those peers with whom a student interacts.     

Do time limits in the sickness insurance system increase return to work?

This article analyzes the effect of stricter enforcement of the eligibility criteria in the Swedish sickness insurance (SI) system. In 2008, time-restricted assessments of the individual’s working capacity on the 91st and 181st sick day was introduced. Taking advantage of the quasi-experimental feature of the intervention, I find a large and significant increased exit rate around the 181-day assessment. The impact is the result of longer spells outside SI-benefits, indicating that the stricter rules create disincentives to report sick.     

Do internal references lead to wage rigidity?

This paper analyzes three prominent models of internal references and their impact on wage rigidity (Danthine and Kurmann in Scand J Econ 109(4):857–881, 2007; J Monet Econ 57(7):837–850, 2010; Koskela and Schöb in J Econ 96:79–86, 2009). With one exception, these studies find that internal references, nested in reciprocal worker preferences, unambiguously increase wage rigidity. In contrast to that literature, the present study provides analytical proofs, calibration results as well as impulse response functions which show that the effect of internal references on wage rigidity is in fact ambiguous. Several model extensions are discussed and robustness checks conducted. The intuition for this result is similar in all models: as internal and external references are modeled as weighted average, an increase in the weight on the internal reference implies a simultaneous decrease in the weight on the outside option. Therefore, the effect of the internal reference relative to the external reference determines whether wage rigidity increases or decreases.     

How Do Technical Barriers to Trade Influence Trade?

This paper empirically estimates the trade effects of technical barriers to trade (TBT) based on all TBT notifications from 105 World Trade Organization (WTO) countries during 1995–2008. The paper adopts a modified two‐stage gravity model to control for both sample selection bias and firm heterogeneity bias. It was found that a country's TBT notifications decrease other countries' probability of exporting, but increase their export volumes. The result can be explained by the TBT's differential effects on the fixed and variable cost of export, and consumer confidence. It was further found that (i) a developing country's TBT have significant effects on other developing countries' exports, but no significant effects on the developed countries' exports, (ii) a developed country's TBT have significant effects on the exports from both types of countries, and (iii) exports from developed countries are affected by a developed country's TBT more seriously than a developing country's TBT.     

Do traders learn to select efficient market institutions?

Experimental Economics - When alternative market institutions are available, traders have to decide both where and how much to trade. We conducted an experiment where traders decided first whether...     

Do FOMC forecasts add value to staff forecasts?

This paper compares the economic forecasts of members of the Board of Governors and presidents of the Federal Reserve Banks, and then investigates the value of each group's forecasts in supplementing the forecasts of the Board of Governors' staff. We find that the presidents tend to forecast higher inflation and real GDP growth, and lower unemployment than the members of the Board of Governors. We also find that the presidents' real GDP and unemployment rate forecasts add value to the real economy forecasts of the staff, while the governors' inflation forecasts add value to the staff's inflation forecasts.     

Do stock prices react to immigration restrictions? Evidence from an event study in Switzerland

This article tests the effects of sudden immigration restrictions on stock prices of firms in industries with high shares of immigrants. It estimates the abnormal returns as a function of the share of migrants by industry. To do so, one specific event – a referendum on migration policy with an unexpected outcome – that will potentially cut off Swiss listed companies from the supply of foreign labour is studied. Although operating in an industry with a high share of immigrants is associated with lower returns, the effect is not very strong, which indicates that investors seem to trust the government to leave some leeway in the implementation of the constitutional amendment that was voted on.     

Do we need a global VAR model to forecast inflation and output in South Africa?

This study determines whether the global vector autoregressive (GVAR) approach provides better forecasts of key South African variables than a vector error correction model (VECM) and a Bayesian vector autoregressive (BVAR) model augmented with foreign variables. The article considers both a small GVAR model and a large GVAR model in determining the most appropriate model for forecasting South African variables. We compare the recursive out-of-sample forecasts for South African GDP and inflation from six types of models: a general 33 country (large) GVAR, a customized small GVAR for South Africa, a VECM for South Africa with weakly exogenous foreign variables, a BVAR model, autoregressive (AR) models and random walk models. The results show that the forecast performance of the large GVAR is generally superior to the performance of the customized small GVAR for South Africa. The forecasts of both the GVAR models tend to be better than the forecasts of the augmented VECM, especially at longer forecast horizons. Importantly, however, on average, the BVAR model performs the best when it comes to forecasting output, while the AR(1) model outperforms all the other models in predicting inflation. We also conduct ex ante forecasts from the BVAR and AR(1) models over 2010:Q1–2013:Q4 to highlight their ability to track turning points in output and inflation, respectively.     

Market reaction to supranational banking supervision in Europe: Do firm- and country-specific factors matter?

This paper investigates the financial market´s perception regarding the effectiveness of the Single Supervisory Mechanism in Europe. Do investors believe that centralized supervision adds value compared to multiple supervision? . Do they feel uncertain about the supervisory role of the ECB? To answer these questions, a sample of 118 European Banks has been used finding that whereas in early dates the market reaction was positive reflecting the expectation of greater stability, it turned negative at the time the scope of the supervision was limited to only a group of banks. As might be expected, the reaction is significantly more negative for the directly supervised entities, anticipating a different and more demanding style of supervision that could lead to higher cost. This negative wealth effect is intensified for banks with higher price-to-book ratios or those located in countries with more developed financial systems and better investor protection. However, solvency and productivity firm indicators or low levels of perceived corruption moderate it. This research not only highlights the doubts and uncertainty of investors about the final applications of the SSM, but it could be also useful for policy makers and regulators in order to achieve a more harmonized supervision that improves the credibility of the systems and promote financial stability.

     

ICTs: Do they contribute to increased carbon emissions?

There is much evidence that the deployment of information and communications technologies (ICTs) can improve economic productivity, reduce energy intensity and exert downward pressure on renewable energy costs. While significant insights have been revealed about each of these effects in isolation, literature has not established their combined implications for carbon emissions. This article uses the International Futures (IFs) integrated assessment system (www.ifs.du.edu) to explore the dynamic impacts of ICT on interacting global systems, including economic and energy systems, and resultant carbon emissions. First, it reviews the literature on the various impacts of ICT; next, it extracts relationships from previously existing quantitative studies on the subject; third, it explains the addition of these relationships to the IFs structure; fourth, it explores the implications of the acceleration of ICT penetration; finally, it frames a range of uncertainty around the analysis through scenarios. The authors argue that ICT can have a downward impact on overall carbon emissions across a 50-year time horizon. However, the net impact of ICT is limited, and if policy makers are concerned with substantial reductions in overall stocks of carbon in the atmosphere, our model shows that ICT promotion must be coupled a global price on carbon.     

Do cheaters in the lab also cheat in the field?

In this paper, we study the correlation between cheating in the lab and cheating in the field. We conduct a laboratory experiment using a variant of the Mind game (Jiang, 2013). Payoffs above a certain threshold are indicative of cheating behavior. Subjects are paid their earnings by bank transfer. A fraction of the subjects is deliberately paid more than their earnings. We send subjects a reminder e-mail stating their earnings and asking them if they have received their payment. We find a significant correlation of 0.31 between cheating in the lab and in the field. Subjects with higher payoffs in the Mind game are also less likely to report the overpayment. Our results speak to the lab-field generalizability of cheating behavior.     

Do Recent PhD Economists Feel Prepared to Teach Economics?

A survey of recent economics PhDs who graduated from U.S. PhD programs and are now teaching in either the United States or Canada revealed that only half of the respondents who taught a stand-alone course during their doctoral program had any teacher preparation training. Those who did have training only felt “adequately” prepared for teaching. However, as a general rule, the respondents felt that they were well-prepared for teaching at the completion of their graduate program. The authors did not find significant differences in the responses of those who did complete formal pedagogical training during their doctoral program and those who did not. Those who completed training during their doctoral program appear to currently be more enthusiastic about training.