"回波效应"与欠发达地区农村金融供给不足根源探析

借助"回波效应"理论,分析了在城乡差距巨大、地区经济发展不平衡的影响下,以农村剩余劳动力转移为特征的生产要素从落后农村地区转移到经济发达地区,造成欠发达地区农村劳动力流失、消费市场萎缩、投资机会减少,最终导致当地资金外流、金融资源不足.因此,欠发达地区农村金融体制改革的首要任务是增加有效需求,提高欠发达地区对金融资源的吸引力,同时,需要通过金融体制改革增加金融资源供给并给予更多的政策性金融支持.     

欠发达县域银行业金融资源配置效率研究

欠发达地区银行业金融资源配置效率直接影响地区经济能否持续健康发展。文章通过实证分析欠发达县域金融资源配置现状,并结合金融体制改革的深化,就提高欠发达县域金融资源配置效率以此促进欠发达县域经济健康发展提出了建议。     

西部欠发达地区金融支持产业转型升级路径探析

在经济新常态视阁下,产业发展转型升级是西部欠发达地区的必然选择,而金融支持是其中最为关键的因素之一.本文首先分析了西部欠发达地区金融支持产业转型升级存在的问题,然后对西部欠发达地区金融支持产业转型升级路径进行了探析:西部欠发达地区应不断完善金融体系建设、积极扩大融资规模、不断加强“三农”服务创新和优化金融生态环境.     

欠发达地区经济发展的金融支持系统构建

从前期对欠发达地区进行金融支持的经验中,总结发现:由于缺乏全面系统性的支持,并未从根本上改变欠发达地区资金"瓶颈"与流失现象.欠发达地区金融支持必须构建一个有着清晰目标的、相对完备的、动态协调的支持系统,并着力促进区域金融发展,以形成金融与经济的良性互动局面,进而促进欠发达地区的经济发展.     

怎样提高我国货币政策在西部地区的效果

我国同样的货币政策在西部地区的效果比东部地区差,通过采取以下措施可以提高我国货币政策在西部地区的效果:深化西部地区国有企业改革,大力发展西部非公有制经济,构建完善的适应市场经济要求的微观经济主体;加大对西部地区扶贫力度,大幅度提高西部人口的收入水平;发展和完善西部地区社会保障体系,提高西部地区社会保障水平;发展和完善西部金融市场;加强西部地区金融投资的可行性论证,提高西部地区金融投资决策的科学性;强化财政政策与货币政策在西部地区的配合。     

欠发达地区农村信用社发展的思考

改革开放以来,以农村信用社为主要标志的农村合作金融在欠发达地区得到长足的发展,在机构覆盖面、服务领域和资金实力方面,已成为服务于农牧民、农牧业、农村牧区经济发展的一支最重要的金融力量,把农村信用社真正办成合作金融组织具有极其重要的意义.但由于历史的原因和种种主客观条件的制约,当前欠发达地区农村合作金融进一步改革和发展中还面临着许多问题,必须充分认识到把它真正办成合作金融组织的长期性和艰巨性,这是一项系统工程.欠发达地区农牧民的收入水平不高,决定了它的进一步改革和发展必须有别于发达地区,因此,本文就欠发达地区农村信用社所面临的发展难点及对策进行探析.     

金融包容框架下欠发达地区金融消费者权益保护分析——以商业银行理财业务为例

随着我国居民金融消费由单一银行存贷款向支付结算、个人理财、股票、债券、保险等众多形式延伸,侵害金融消费者权益事件也越发频繁地出现,欠发达地区金融消费者地位弱势更加显著.随着普惠金融的发展,包容性金融体系建设需要加强金融消费者特别是欠发达地区金融消费者的权益保护.     

欠发达地区农村经济结构调整与金融发展分析——宿州个案研究

本文主要对宿州市农村经济结构调整、增长方式转变与金融发展的相关性进行实证分析.结果表明,欠发达地区的金融发展与农村经济结构调整和增长方式转变有着显著的相关性.为了改变我国欠发达地区农村经济不合理的结构和实现增长方式转变,我们不仅要追求农村地区金融规模的扩展,更要注重发挥金融的调节功能,引导农村资金流动,有效促进农村经济结构调整和增长方式转变.     

货币政策对欠发达地区房地产价格传导机制的实证分析——以兰州市为例

通过阐述货币政策对房地产价格传导机制的理论基础,选取房地产价格、个人住房利率、房地产开发贷款和个人住房贷款四个指标,利用向量自回归模型从信贷途径和利率途径就货币政策对欠发达地区房地产价格的传导机制进行实证分析。通过分析得出,货币政策对欠发达地区房地产价格的敏感度较低,且存在一定的时滞性。最后,根据分析结果,简要提出相关政策建议。     

欠发达地区金融支持系统耦合与动态调整

要适应不断变化的内外部环境,欠发达地区金融支持系统的运行也应是动态变化的.随着欠发达地区不同的发展阶段带来的不同金融需求,金融支持系统提供的金融供给也要相应变化.并且,政策的金融支持也有合理边界,需要相应的支持对象选择机制、政策进入与退出机制、以及政策效果评估监测机制等机制来配合给予动态调整.     

Financial market segmentation,stock market volatility and the role of monetary policy

We study a segmented financial markets model where only the agents who trade stocks encounter financial income risk. In such an economy, the welfare-maximizing monetary policy attains the novel role of redistributing the traders' financial market risk among all agents in the economy. In order to do that, optimal monetary policy reacts to financial market movements; it is expansionary in bad times for the financial markets and contractionary in good ones. In our quantitative exercise, a dividend shock generates different policy responses and consumption paths among the optimal and the 2% inflation targeting policy. The latter implies large distributional welfare losses and risk sharing losses of similar magnitude with those generated by business cycle fluctuations. In addition, the optimal monetary policy does not minimize stock price volatility and implies lower inflation volatility than other commonly used policies.     

美联储量化宽松政策对全球资产价格的非平衡溢出效应

本文采用全局向量自回归模型分析了美联储QE对采用不同货币政策框架、汇率制度和资本流动管理制度国家和地区的不同影响。“货币政策钉住货币供应量+宽松钉住汇率制度+资本账户可兑换”的国家其货币政策应兼顾本国物价水平稳定，同时加强宏观审慎政策对资产价格的逆周期调节，避免出现实体经济紧缩而金融繁荣的现象。“货币政策钉住通货膨胀+浮动汇率+资本账户可兑换”的国家应强化宏观审慎政策对资产价格的调节以应对金融资产泡沫。     

金融结构及其对货币传导机制的影响

本文在简要考察中国金融结构转型中货币政策机制 ,包括货币政策的工具、效率前沿和规则及相应的货币传导机制变迁轨迹的基础上 ,根据结构分割点原则 ,实证检验、估计和分析了金融结构变迁对货币政策的适用工具和反应函数的影响 ,以及对货币传导的利率机制 ,即由政策利率到市场利率、并进而到通胀率 -产出波动前沿的影响。基本的结论是 ,金融结构变迁深刻地影响着货币传导机制的性质和作用程度     

Asset Prices and the Financial Crisis of 2007–09: An Overview of Theories and Policies

The financial crisis of 2007–09 has led to a rethinking of the role of monetary and financial regulatory policy. It has also called into question the benefits of financial innovation and monetary policy that focuses solely on inflation and the output gap. This paper discusses financial instabilities in general, the recent financial crisis as well as the appropriate role of monetary and financial regulatory policy in dealing with asset bubbles. The paper concludes by evaluating appropriate policies to reduce the economic impact of future financial crises.     

Capital Controls,Global Liquidity Traps,and the International Policy Trilemma*

The zero bound on interest rates introduces a new dimension to the trilemma in international policy. The openness of the international financial market might render monetary policy ineffective, even within a system of fully flexible exchange rates, because shocks that lead to a liquidity trap in one country are propagated through financial markets to other countries. However, the effectiveness of monetary policy can be restored by the imposition of capital controls. We derive the optimal response of monetary policy to a global liquidity trap in the presence of capital controls. We show that, even though capital controls might facilitate effective monetary policy, capital controls are not generally desirable in terms of welfare.     

宏观经济理论中的金融因素:若干认识误区

本文以主流宏观经济学的若干认识误区为切入点,对宏观经济理论中的金融因素及相关问题进行了初步的理论反思。这一反思主要围绕以下六个基本命题展开:一是金融因素在宏观经济中的影响被严重低估,二是主流货币政策框架的致命缺陷源于其政策视野的短期性,三是货币与信用的创造机制存在着本质差别,四是财政机制与信用机制并非独立,五是金融创新指向信用创造并改变了经济金融环境,六是泡沫问题金融化的本质在于杠杆扩大化。这些命题的共同启示是:宏观经济理论必须在纳入内生性金融因素的基础上予以系统重建。     

Identifying the Interdependence Between Monetary Policy and Financial Stress: Evidence from China

We estimate the interdependence between Chinese monetary policy and financial stress using structural vector autoregression. To solve the simultaneity problem, we employ a strategy including both short‐run and long‐run restrictions that maintains the qualitative properties of monetary policy shocks derived from the literature. This method is applied to Chinese monthly data, together with a newly constructed index of financial stress in this paper. Our findings suggest there exists strong interdependence between monetary policy and financial stress. The financial stress index increases immediately by 0.4 of its standard deviation after a monetary policy shock that raises the M2 growth rate by 1 percentage point. An increase of financial stress by one standard deviation leads to a decline in the M2 growth rate by 2 percentage points.     

货币政策对金融生态的影响机理及实证检验——基于上市商业银行面板数据的分析

传统的货币理论忽视了货币政策对银行风险承担及金融生态的影响,文章从商业银行的微观视角出发研究了货币政策对金融生态的影响机理。理论层面,金融生态与货币政策制度供给、传导机制和有效性相互关联,货币政策则通过资产价格或估值机制、收入及现金流机制、追求收益机制、杠杆调整机制、道德风险机制和风险转移机制影响商业银行的风险承担;实证层面,构建了货币政策影响商业银行信贷投放和风险承担的数理模型,选取国有和股份制两类共12家上市商业银行2008-2013年的面板数据进行固定效应模型实证检验。结果表明,宽松货币政策导致商业银行的信贷投放规模增加、风险承担意愿增强,有利于优化金融生态,反之则反是;国有商业银行对货币政策变化更敏感,而股份制商业银行对金融生态更敏感。因此,在我国宏观经济管理中,需要货币政策与宏观审慎政策相互协调配合。     

Financial stress,economic activity and monetary policy in the ASEAN-5 economies

This article uses a structural vector autoregression approach to analyse the impact of financial stress on the economy and the relationship between monetary policy and financial stress in the ASEAN-5 economies (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore and Thailand). We find that an increase in financial stress leads to tighter credit conditions and lower economic activity in all five countries. The estimated impact on the real economy displays an initial rapid decline followed by a gradual dissipation. In Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand, the central banks tend to reduce policy interest rates (IRs) when financial stress increases, although there is substantial cross-country variation in the magnitude and time dynamics. The lower policy IRs are found to have little significant effects in lowering financial stress, but are still effective in stimulating economic activity through other channels. These findings imply that easing monetary policy is likely necessary but insufficient to address growth slowdowns associated with financial stress. Monetary easing should instead be complemented with other policy measures which are targeted at restoring financial stress to normal levels.     

Building a financial conditions index for the euro area and selected euro area countries: What does it tell us about the crisis?

In this paper we construct financial conditions indices (FCIs) for the euro area, for the period 2003 to 2011, using a wide range of prices, quantities, spreads and survey data, grounded in the theoretical literature. One FCI includes monetary policy variables, whilst two versions without monetary policy are also constructed, enabling us to study the impact of monetary policy on financial conditions. The FCIs constructed fit in well with a narrative of financial conditions since the creation of the monetary union. FCIs for individual euro area countries are also provided, with a view to comparing financial conditions in core and periphery countries. There is evidence of significant divergence both before and during the crisis, which becomes less pronounced when monetary policy variables are included in the FCI. However, the impact of monetary policy on financial conditions appears not to be entirely symmetric across the euro area.