Extent and Impact of Incubation Time in New Product Diffusion

This article examines the time between product development and market launch, and its relation to the subsequent diffusion of consumer durables. We find that this "incubation time" is long. Further, it is a useful predictor of the shape of the subsequent sales diffusion curve. Using the Bass model as a base, we find that the longer the incubation time, the lower the coefficient of innovation ( p ) and the longer the time to peak sales. Further, using the incubation time in a Bayesian forecasting model significantly improves forecasts early in the life cycle. © 1999 Elsevier Science Inc.     

Segmental new-product diffusion of residential broadband services

Aggregate models of innovation diffusion do not capitalise on valuable consumer adoption dynamics that may be useful to policy makers and market planners. The non-diffusion choice literature shows quite clearly that these dynamics may indeed be very important factors in the diffusion process. The authors present a segmental broadband diffusion model that is estimated from consumer survey data that measure the effect that household income has on its propensity to adopt this technological product. The results suggest that early broadband adopters are mostly made up from wealthy households and only as time progresses do less well off households adopt. The findings presented in this paper will be important to market planners and policy makers requiring a relatively simple technique that forecasts segmental innovation diffusion.     

Consumer demand for food diversity: evidence for Germany

Whereas a large number of empirical studies have been devoted to analysing consumer demand for specific products, much less attention has been paid to the household’s demand for product variety (the number of different products consumed in a specific time period). This paper analyses consumer demand for food variety in Germany. The econometric analysis of 4632 households suggests that variety significantly increases with income and the number of children aged between 7 and 17 years and is significantly higher if the family lives in larger cities in East Germany, and the housekeeping person is not additionally working full-time. A single male household consumes a significantly smaller number of different food products. The significant (and positive) impact of household income on food variety is in line with the hypothesis that consumption evolves along a hierarchical order as income increases.     

The relationship between network governance and unilateral governance in dynamic consumer demand

An important question for retailers is the extent to which control over suppliers should be maintained when there is uncertain consumer demand. This paper proposes that the level of network governance (high or low) affects retailers' level of unilateral control in uncertain consumer demands. The empirical results indicate that when there is a low level of network governance, retailers tend to increase the level of unilateral control over suppliers as consumer demand uncertainty increases. On the other hand, retailers who feel a high level of network governance may rely on unilateral governance to a lesser extent regardless of consumer demand uncertainty.     

Consumer responses to front-of-package labeling in the presence of information spillovers

Voluntary nutrition labeling, a means of nutrition quality disclosure, was introduced in the U.S. over the last decade by leading food manufacturers, primarily in the form of front-of-package (FOP) labeling. This article examines how consumer responses to FOP labeling via product participation and information spillovers shift consumer demand across competing products. Applying a random coefficient logit demand model to sales data from the U.S. ready-to-eat cereal market (RTEC) empirically confirms a positive participation effect of FOP and a strong negative spillover effect on non-participating products. Further results indicate that the participation and spillover effects are stronger for healthy RTECs than they are for unhealthy ones. Moreover, ignoring such effects leads to underestimation of consumer valuation of FOP labeling for participating products, higher own-price elasticities of demand and lower price-cost margins. The findings also suggest that an incentive in a firm’s voluntary participation in self-regulated labeling programs is to avoid negative treatment externalities and that less health-conscious consumers are not influenced by spillover effects. Overall, this article highlights the importance of including spillover effects in the evaluation of FOP programs and that FOP can play a positive role in improving the healthfulness of consumer choices.     

Consumers' quality choices during demand peaks

In a number of product categories, average prices decrease when demand exogenously increases. The literature disagrees on whether this effect is due to firms' reactions to high demand or to changes in consumer behavior. I propose a strategy that enables the identification of supply and demand movements by examining unpredictable and short-lived exogenous demand shocks. During these periods, firms do not have time to adjust pricing or advertising strategies, and most activity comes from changes in consumer behavior. My model shows that during periods of exogenous high demand, consumers migrate toward cheaper, lower-quality products. I focus on ice cream purchases, which have a seasonal peak during the summer and increase during less-predictable periods of unseasonably high temperatures. Using individual-level data, I test model implications and estimate structural parameters, finding evidence consistent with consumers' quality shifts. I also reject alternative supply-side theories' explanations for the main drivers of the observed price dynamics.     

Estimating consumer surplus in the mobile telecommunications market: The case of Korea

This paper estimates consumer surplus in the Korean mobile telephone services (MTS) market. The Korean mobile telecommunications market has grown rapidly since 1997 when competition was introduced and Code Division Multiple Access (CDMA) technology was commercialized. Because consumer surplus is relevant to the controversy over establishing an appropriate price level between consumers and service providers, the need for a robust measurement of benefit from MTS is increasing. The measured net consumer surplus estimated by means of elasticities of demand reached about US$48.8 billion in the period 1996–2004 and the changes amounted to about US$8.8 billion during the same period. In particular, after competition was introduced into the market with an accompanying price decrease and increase in the number of subscribers, consumers have benefited greatly. Therefore, it can be inferred that a facility-based competition policy and the reduction in price of access such as handset subsidies all played a positive role in the early diffusion of MTS in Korea. The estimated consumer surplus in this paper does not include network externality (option externality); if this were considered, the total social welfare of the consumer would be larger.     

Waterfall Versus Sprinkler Product Launch Strategy: Influencing the Herd

A seller decides the price and sequence in which a product of unknown value is introduced to consumers. Consumers inspect the product before consumption and observe past prices and sales. Consumption at a high price is informative for later consumers as it indicates that the product is likely to be of high value. I show that on an average prices decrease over time. However, expected revenue on an average rises over time. For a high enough discount factor, I find that for extreme beliefs the firm introduces the product to all consumers but for intermediate values the product is introduced only to one consumer.     

FROM EXPERIENCE: Products Talking to People—Conversation Closes the Gap between Products and Consumers

Product design is a complex undertaking, requiring manufacturers to find a balance among business goals, regulatory guidelines, the requirements of the distributor and retailer, and consumer demand. Along the way, it is sometimes easy to forget that, in the end, an actual person will attempt to operate the product.
Manufacturers are skilled at collecting and analyzing data about their customers and at using this information to formulate a "brand message": those things a company wants to communicate to consumers, the expectations that should be set in the consumer's mind, and what feelings and associations consumers should take away from an interaction with the company and its products. But while this information may be useful in understanding demographic and economic aspects of consumers, it often does not help the manufacturer understand how the product and user should interact—how the product and user should "talk" to each other. Something is lost in translation as a product goes from being a conceptual instantiation of a brand to being an actual physical object that a consumer must communicate with and must manipulate. The result is an experience that reflects poorly on the product and the manufacturer.
This article presents a framework for developing the interaction between user and product, using the metaphor of conversation between people. Human beings have developed a set of conversational rules and norms over the last few thousand years, and by leveraging these standards, manufacturers can create product interactions that provide a better experience to the consumer.     

Demand for dairy products in the EU

In the EU dairy sector, given the remaining high protective tariffs and the quota system, the main factor that drives dairy product market prices is the demand. This paper evaluates the development of demand in the EU and presents estimates of consumption trends and forecasts for the future as well as estimates of elasticity with respect to prices and income in two major EU consumer countries: France and Italy. We use two methods to estimate the development of demand for dairy products, one based on a multi-stage demand system and another based on a single trend equation. The two methods generally lead to the same qualitative results but trend projections are larger using the demand system approach which is based on a shorter data period. This difference is thus partly explained by the fact that high trend projections are not sustainable over a long period. The results show a decreasing consumption of butter and fluid milk and an overall growth in protein and fat consumption. Nevertheless, the increase in fat consumption should be more moderate than the consumption of protein. The results also show that the demand for dairy products is relatively price inelastic but is more sensitive to changes in income (especially for butter and cheese categories). As shown by the use of a partial equilibrium model of dairy markets, the likely impact of the CAP reform strongly depends on the development of demand for dairy products in the EU. More research effort on demand analysis is therefore crucial in order to assess the impact of reforms or trade negotiations more accurately and effectively.     

Consumer Innovativeness and the Use of New versus Extended Brand Names for New Products*

Despite the importance of branding to new product success, little research has been conducted on how individual adoption orientation might affect brand name preferences. This paper draws on the diffusion literature to investigate how consumer innovativeness affects consumer response to alternative branding strategies (i.e., new vs. extended brands, for new products). The results of an empirical study found that consumer innovativeness has a greater effect on new product evaluations for new brand names relative to extended brand names. Also, results indicate that highly innovative consumers evaluate new products with new brand names more favorably than brand extensions. Furthermore, consumer confidence in the new product was found to mediate the effects of consumer innovativeness and its interaction with brand name type on new product evaluation. Implications include not only giving greater managerial consideration to using new brands but also supporting the chosen branding strategy with appropriate promotional efforts for respective adopter groups.     

Comments on the Model Testing by Goodwin and Meeran (2012): Comparison of the Utility‐based and the Gompertz Curve Approach for High‐technology Product Sales Forecasting

Starting from a comprehensive examination of recent empirical studies focusing on consumer behavior in high‐technology markets and the resulting identification of factors probably affecting individual buying decisions as well as aggregate product sales, Decker and Gnibba‐Yukawa developed and empirically verified a utility‐based sales forecasting approach in their earlier work. Based on data for 14 consumer electronic products and using the Gompertz curve as a benchmark, Goodwin and Meeran carried out a “more extensive testing” of this proposal. However, at least from a practical point of view, the plausibility of their testing framework regarding the market potential m is not unquestionable. This paper, therefore, first discusses some theoretical aspects of both approaches by addressing issues challenged by Goodwin and Meeran, especially regarding the use of short time series and the consideration of replacement purchases. Then, the quasi‐endogenous estimation method for m favored by Goodwin and Meeran for the Gompertz curve is examined in terms of sensitivity to better understand its influence on sales forecasts, and the adequacy of the suggested range for m in the case of the approach by Decker and Gnibba‐Yukawa is investigated. In addition, the results presented in Goodwin and Meeran are considered from a more distant perspective, and possible causes of the variations in forecasting accuracy are discussed, which finally reveals that the forecasting performance of the utility‐based approach is not that “disappointing” as claimed. It provides more accurate (or at least equivalent) forecasts than the Gompertz curve approach in 64% of the cases considered. Furthermore, if product 14 (portable MP3 players) is excluded from the analysis because of the nonconsideration of probably existing product improvement effects, then the utility‐based approach, on average, outperforms the benchmark in all forecasting years. Altogether, this suggests that the approach by Decker and Gnibba‐Yukawa could achieve more accurate forecasts when applying a more reasonable range for m, rather than varying it between 2 and 15 times the cumulative sales by the end of year 7 as proposed by Goodwin and Meeran. It turns out that the Gompertz curve approach can perform on a par with the utility‐based approach in high‐technology product sales forecasting based on short time series if the market potential m is estimated exogenously. A combination of the outcomes of both approaches can even lead to more accurate forecasts as when being used individually insofar as composite forecasting seems to be a practicable approach to the problem of shorter time series compelled by the accelerated diffusion speed in high‐technology markets, rather than relying on one presumably “best” model.     

Applying Hedonic Pricing Models and Factorial Surveys at Parker Pen to Enhance New Product Success

Walking the path from new product concept to successful commercialization is a tightrope act. Product developers must carefully balance a variety of factors, including predictions of consumer price sensitivity as well as which combination of product attributes will be most valued by the intended market. A well-chosen mix of analytical tools can enhance a firm's chances of accurately predicting market demand. Chuck Tomkovick and Kathryn E. Dobie describe how the integration of two product attribute assessment techniques–hedonic pricing models and factorial surveys–allows product designers to more accurately gauge price sensitivity and market receptivity to new product designs. They also describe how these analytical tools were used to improve decision-making in product development at the Parker Pen Company, and they discuss the role these tools can play in facilitating the transition from concept to commercialization. Hedonic price analysis is an econometric method for determining the value purchasers place on attributes of existing products. In product development, factorial surveys are used to identify the value members of the target market place on new product concepts and prototypes. When used in combination with identified hedonic prices, the responses to a factorial survey allow product developers to predict consumer willingness-to-pay for various combinations of new product attributes. Following development of prototypes for two new product lines, product developers at the Parker Pen Company used hedonic pricing models and factorial surveys as a means for reducing demand uncertainty and for clarifying what consumers were willing to pay for various combinations of product attributes that were under consideration. The integration and use of these techniques involved a five-step process of target market identification, product attribute identification, hedonic price estimation, administering of the factorial survey, and determination of consumer willingness-to-pay. The results of these analyses allowed Parker Pen to better focus product development efforts on those design elements for which test market customers indicated both demand and willingness-to-pay. The Parker Pen Company found hedonic pricing and factorial surveys useful for predicting both the rate and the degree of change in consumers' marginal utility for specific product attributes. The usefulness of these techniques also extends beyond the early stages of new product conception. These techniques are helpful in the development and implementation of dynamic new product marketing mix strategies, including such elements as product design, pricing, channel selection, and promotion.     

Optimal inventory and pricing policies for remanufacturable leased products

In this paper we consider a company which leases new products and also sells remanufactured versions of the new product that become available at the end of their lease periods. When the amount of end-of-lease items in stock is not sufficient to meet the demand for remanufactured products, the firm may purchase additional cores from a third-party supplier. We develop a dynamic programming formulation for determining the optimal price of remanufactured products, and optimal payment structure for the leased products. Our objective is to maximize the discounted system-wide profit over a finite horizon. The profit function consists of revenues that are obtained from remanufactured product sales and leasing, remanufacturing and manufacturing costs, inventory holding and shortage costs. We consider a consumer choice based demand model for mapping a potential customer into one of the product segments (a remanufactured product customer or a customer for a leased product with a particular lease period) for a given price/lease payment vector. We explore several properties of the discounted profit function and provide insight on the behavior of pricing and inventory policies. We also investigate the effect of key product characteristics such as deterioration in age, cost of shortage in remanufacturable product inventory, and key market characteristics such as relative willingness-to-pay for buying a remanufactured product and relative willingness-to-pay for leasing a new product on optimal pricing policies through a computational study.     

个性化需求对产品设计形式的影响

个性化产品的潜在性需求出现是社会生产力不断发展的结果,也是为了满足不同个体的不同消费需求,因此,影响产品设计形式的因素不仅仅是材料、结构、功能,还有个性化审美因素。人们的不同情感需求导致产品个性化设计的出现,成为新的设计发展趋势,只有个性化的产品才能满足多层次的需求。在产品设计形式上我们要尊重个性差异,只有不断提升设计的应变能力,进行设计创新,通过改进、完善设计形式,增加产品的特殊功能和附属功能,才能满足消费者的心理和个性的新需求。     

Bargaining over employment as a firm strategic choice

This paper develops a simple model as to why unionized Cournot firms acting non-cooperatively in the product market may find it optimal to commit to bargaining outcomes with their specific union, which are off the labor demand curve, hence restricting their behavior to non-profit maximizing practices in their product markets. The prediction that power over labor conceded strategically to the union by the firm is negatively linked to union wage power is not rejected on a panel of Belgian firms as well as the prediction that the union bargaining power can be affected by product market structure and other variables affecting union wages.     

Demand for farm animal welfare and producer implications: Results from a field experiment in Michigan

This study utilizes a Becker-DeGroot-Marschak (BDM) mechanism to assess Michigan consumer demand for animal welfare practices. Results are examined in the context of changing farm production costs and producer marketing margins. We find that while consumers are willing to pay significant premiums for animal welfare standards, failing to account for the costs associated with producing the entire animal under the new system could lead to suboptimal policy that negatively affects producer welfare. Our results suggest that consumer premiums for animal welfare are product specific and that WTP estimates should not be generalized to the entire animal. We discuss policy implications of our findings and highlight the importance of considering producer costs when evaluating consumer demand for farm animal welfare practices.     

Design of Robust New Products under Variability: Marketing Meets Design*

In designing consumer durables such as appliances and power tools, it is important to account for variations in product performance across different usage situations and conditions. Since the specific usage of the product and the usage conditions can vary, the resultant variations in product performance also can impact consumer preferences for the product. Therefore, any new product that is designed should be robust to these variations—both in product performances and consumer preferences. This article refers to a robust product design as a design that has (1) the best possible (engineering and market) performance under the worst‐case variations and (2) the least possible sensitivity in its performance under the variations. Achieving these robustness criteria, however, implies consideration of a large number of design factors across multiple functions. This article's objectives are (1) to provide a tutorial on how variations in product performance and consumer preferences can be incorporated in the generation and comparison of design alternatives and (2) to apply a multi‐objective genetic algorithm (MOGA) that incorporates multifunction criteria in order to identify better designs while incorporating the robustness criteria in the selection process. Since the robustness criteria is based on variations in engineering performance as well as consumer preferences, the identified designs are robust and optimal from different functional perspectives, a significant advantage over extant approaches that do not consider robustness issues from multifunction perspectives. This study's approach is particularly useful for product managers and product development teams, who are charged with developing prototypes. They may find the approach helpful for obtaining customers' buy‐in as well as internal buy‐in early on in the product development cycle and thereby for reducing the cost and time involved in developing prototypes. This study's approach and its usefulness are illustrated using a case‐study application of prototype development for a handheld power tool.