Improved Forecasting of Mutual Fund Alphas and Betas

This paper proposes a simple back testing procedure that isshown to dramatically improve a panel data model's ability toproduce out of sample forecasts. Here the procedure is usedto forecast mutual fund alphas. Using monthly data with an OLSmodel it has been difficult to consistently predict which portfoliomanagers will produce above market returns for their investors.This paper provides empirical evidence that sorting on the estimatedalphas populates the top and bottom deciles not with the bestand worst funds, but with those having the greatest estimationerror. This problem can be attenuated by back testing the statisticalmodel fund by fund. The back test used here requires a statisticalmodel to exhibit some past predictive success for a particularfund before it is allowed to make predictions about that fundin the current period. Another estimation problem concerns theuse of a single statistical model for all available mutual funds.Since no one statistical model is likely to fit every fund,the result is a great deal of misspecification error. This papershows that the combined use of an OLS and Kalman filter modelincreases the number of funds with predictable out of samplealphas by about 60%. Overall, a strategy that uses very modestex-ante filters to eliminate funds whose parameters likely deriveprimarily from estimation error produces an out of sample risk-adjustedreturn of over 4% per annum.     

Estimating the Dynamics of Mutual Fund Alphas and Betas

This article develops a Kalman filter model to track dynamicmutual fund factor loadings. It then uses the estimates to analyzewhether managers with market-timing ability can be identifiedex ante. The primary findings are as follows: (i) Ordinary leastsquares (OLS) timing models produce false positives (nonzeroalphas) at too high a rate with either daily or monthly data.In contrast, the Kalman filter model produces them at approximatelythe correct rate with monthly data; (ii) In monthly data, thoughthe OLS models fail to detect any timing among fund managers,the Kalman filter does; (iii) The alpha and beta forecasts fromthe Kalman model are more accurate than those from the OLS timingmodels; (iv) The Kalman filter model tracks most fund alphasand betas better than OLS models that employ macroeconomic variablesin addition to fund returns.     

On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance

Using a sample free of survivor bias, I demonstrate that common factors in stock returns and investment expenses almost completely explain persistence in equity mutual funds' mean and risk-adjusted returns. Hendricks, Patel and Zeckhauser's (1993) “hot hands” result is mostly driven by the one-year momentum effect of Jegadeesh and Titman (1993) , but individual funds do not earn higher returns from following the momentum strategy in stocks. The only significant persistence not explained is concentrated in strong underperformance by the worst-return mutual funds. The results do not support the existence of skilled or informed mutual fund portfolio managers.     

The Persistence of Mutual Fund Performance

This paper analyzes how mutual fund performance relates to past performance. These tests are based on a multiple portfolio benchmark that was formed on the basis of securities characteristics. We find evidence that differences in performance between funds persist over time and that this persistence is consistent with the ability of fund managers to earn abnormal returns.     

Short-Term Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance

We estimate parameters of standard stock selection and markettiming models using daily mutual fund returns and quarterlymeasurement periods. We then rank funds quarterly by abnormalreturn and measure the performance of each decile the followingquarter. The average abnormal return of the top decile in thepost-ranking quarter is 39 basis points. The post-ranking abnormalreturn disappears when funds are evaluated over longer periods.These results suggest that superior performance is a short-livedphenomenon that is observable only when funds are evaluatedseveral times a year.     

False Discoveries in Mutual Fund Performance: Measuring Luck in Estimated Alphas

This paper develops a simple technique that controls for "false discoveries," or mutual funds that exhibit significant alphas by luck alone. Our approach precisely separates funds into (1) unskilled, (2) zero-alpha, and (3) skilled funds, even with dependencies in cross-fund estimated alphas. We find that 75% of funds exhibit zero alpha (net of expenses), consistent with the Berk and Green equilibrium. Further, we find a significant proportion of skilled (positive alpha) funds prior to 1996, but almost none by 2006. We also show that controlling for false discoveries substantially improves the ability to find the few funds with persistent performance.     

Mutual Fund Incubation

Incubation is a strategy for initiating new funds, where multiple funds are started privately, and, at the end of an evaluation period, some are opened to the public. Consistent with incubation being used by fund families to increase performance and attract flows, funds in incubation outperform nonincubated funds by 3.5% risk‐adjusted, and when they are opened to the public they attract higher flows. Postincubation, however, this outperformance disappears. This performance reversal imparts an upward bias to returns that is not removed by a fund size filter. Fund age and ticker creation date filters, however, eliminate the bias.     

Mutual Fund Survivorship

This article provides a comprehensive study of survivorshipissues using the mutual fund data of Carhart (1997). We demonstratetheoretically that when survival depends on multiperiod performance,the survivorship bias in average performance typically increaseswith the sample length. This is empirically relevant becauseevidence suggests a multiyear survival rule for U.S. mutualfunds. In the data we find the annual bias increases from 0.07%for 1-year samples to 1% for samples longer than 15 years. Wefind that survivor conditioning weakens evidence of performancepersistence. Finally, we explain how survivor conditioning affectsthe relation between performance and fund characteristics.     

Incentives and Endogenous Risk Taking: A Structural View on Hedge Fund Alphas

Hedge fund managers are subject to several nonlinear incentives: performance fee options (call); equity investors' redemption options (put); and prime broker contracts allowing for forced deleverage (put). The interaction of these option‐like incentives affects optimal leverage ex ante, depending on the distance of fund‐value from the high‐water mark. We study how these endogenous effects influence performance measures used in the literature. We show that reduced‐form measures that do not account for these features are subject to economically significant false discovery biases. The result is stronger for low‐quality funds. We propose an alternative structural methodology for conducting performance attribution in hedge funds.     

Mutual Fund Liquidity Costs

One dollar in purchases or redemptions generates an average cost of $0.006 for US equity mutual funds during the period 1997‐2009, approximately 70% lower than prior estimates derived from older data. However, large cross‐sectional differences exist between funds. Many funds have costs near zero, but funds that hold relatively illiquid equities, have relatively concentrated portfolios, and manage relatively large amounts of assets have average liquidity costs significantly greater than the full sample average. Furthermore, despite a large difference in underlying asset liquidity, US bond funds and US equity funds have similar average liquidity costs.     

Mutual Fund Family Size and Mutual Fund Performance: The Role of Regulatory Changes

We examine whether the previously documented positive association between fund family size and fund performance is affected by significant regulatory changes (i.e., Regulation Fair Disclosure (Reg FD), the Global Settlement (GS), and increased scrutiny as a result of trading scandals) that have occurred in the last decade. Using Reg FD as a beginning point for these structural changes, we find that, while fund family size was positively associated with fund performance in the period prior to the regulatory changes, this advantage is significantly weaker in the period subsequent to the regulatory changes. Consistent with the weakened advantage of fund family size in fund performance, we find that the greater stock‐picking skill of larger fund families, measured using the earnings announcement returns of the stocks they trade, also weakened subsequent to the regulatory changes. Using narrower event windows around the regulatory changes, we find that the previously documented superior return of large fund families was partly attributable to selective disclosure. We also find that fund families implicated in the trading scandals experienced a decline in their performance during the scandal period. Finally, we examine the role of large investment banks in providing an advantage to large fund families. Family size was positively associated with the extent to which funds traded in the same direction as forecast revisions by analysts from large investment banks in the period prior to Reg FD and the GS and this association declined significantly after the two regulatory events.     

Mutual Fund Tax Clienteles

Mutual funds are held by investors in taxable and tax‐qualified retirement accounts. We investigate whether the characteristics, investment strategies, and performance of mutual funds held by these diverse tax clienteles differ. Examining both mutual fund distributions and mutual fund holdings, we find that funds held primarily by taxable investors choose investment strategies that result in lower tax burdens than funds held primarily in tax‐qualified accounts. Despite these differences, we find no evidence that any investment constraints that may arise from these tax‐efficient investment strategies result in performance differences between funds held by different tax clienteles.     

European Mutual Fund Performance

This paper presents an overview of the European mutual fund industry and investigates mutual fund performance using a survivorship bias controlled sample of 506 funds from the five most important mutual fund countries. The latter is done using the Carhart (1997) 4-factor asset-pricing model. In addition we investigate whether European fund managers exhibit 'hot hands', persistence in performance. Finally the influence of fund characteristics on risk-adjusted performance is considered. Our overall results suggest that European mutual funds, and especially small cap funds are able to add value, as indicated by their positive after cost alphas. If we add back management fees, four out of five countries exhibit significant out-performance at an aggregate level. Finally, we detect strong persistence in mean returns for funds investing in the UK. Our results deviate from most US studies that argue mutual funds under-perform the market by the amount of expenses they charge.     

Evaluating Mutual Fund Performance

We study standard mutual fund performance measures, using simulated funds whose characteristics mimic actual funds. We find that performance measures used in previous mutual fund research have little ability to detect economically large magnitudes (e.g., three percent per year) of abnormal fund performance, particularly if a fund's style characteristics differ from those of the value-weighted market portfolio. Power can be substantially improved, however, using event-study procedures that analyze a fund's stock trades. These procedures are feasible using time-series data sets on mutual fund portfolio holdings.     

证券基金立法进行时

立法部门审议证券投资基金法草案 新华社 2002年8月23日 保障中国基金业高速、健康发展的重要法律<中华人民共和国证券投资基金法(草案)>,提请九届全国人大常委会第29次会议审议.草案对中国基金的组织和运作方式、保护基金份额持有人的合法权益以及外资参股中国基金管理机构等重要问题作出明确规定.     

Costly Search and Mutual Fund Flows

This paper studies the flows of funds into and out of equity mutual funds. Consumers base their fund purchase decisions on prior performance information, but do so asymmetrically, investing disproportionately more in funds that performed very well the prior period. Search costs seem to be an important determinant of fund flows. High performance appears to be most salient for funds that exert higher marketing effort, as measured by higher fees. Flows are directly related to the size of the fund's complex as well as the current media attention received by the fund, which lower consumers' search costs.     

Macroeconomic Forces and Mutual Fund Betas

This paper develops and tests a model in which fund betas are linearly related to changes in macroeconomic factors. Tests using monthly returns for 171 mutual funds over 1978–1991 were run. Results indicate that equity funds betas, on average, are negatively related to inflation changes and default risk premia while bond fund betas, on average, are negatively related to changes in risk-free rates, industrial production growth, and the term structure. Betas for passive portfolios, however, are not related to the macroeconomic factors examined.     

农村资金互助社融资难题待解

我国农村金融改革的表象是供给问题,而实质是农民组织化瓶颈约束问题,也就是如何发展农村合作金融,提高农民的市场主体交易地位的问题.这个问题不解决,农村金融体系根本建立不起来.