Values in futures studies and long-term planning: Two Swedish case studies

The past few years' debate on the devolution of decision making in Swedish urban communities has increased the importance of examining values among planners and the eventual subjects of the plans. This article presents two case studies which show that the discrepancy in values not only complicates the planning process but also raises the need for further research in developing new techniques in delineating individual values.     

网络层防毒--防毒技术的新变革

蠕虫是病毒迈入网络时代的新产物，与网络技术的结合使得这种病毒在传播技术和行为模式上都发生了巨大的变革。与传统的病毒不同，蠕虫是一种非常独立的病毒，复制、传播和攻击整个过程具有主动性，不需要任何人为的干预。它采用网络协议来进行繁殖和传播，如TCP，UDP，FTP和电子邮件协议族等；它的主要攻击对象不再是操作系统或者存在于系统中的特定文件，     

Mortality among Swedish insured

In this paper, the mortality among the Swedish voluntarily insured is described. It is based on calculations of the mortality among the Swedish insured from 2001 to 2005, and in the total Swedish population. The total population data has been used to compute the mortality trend with the Lee–Carter model.     

Improving value and certainty in defence procurement

Defence procurement is notoriously complex and risky. This article analyses the factors which are unique to defence and those which are general to the public sector. It proposes some practical improvements for UK defence procurement (and overseas equivalents), across its value chains and suppliers, and also within the public sector.     

Swedish futures studies in transition

In 1984 the Swedish government appointed a parliamentary committee to examine the future of the Swedish Secretariat for Futures Studies. This article describes the intellectual and institutional background against which the Secretariat was set up and how it evolved in the 1970s and early 1980s. It finally presents the committee's recommendations and the new organization for futures studies emerging out of its proposal.     

盖特纳财技之美

这个问题,不太好说。电话那头,马向伍想婉拒记者的约访,因为财政人有自己的考虑,新闻界有自己的要求。这个不好说的问题,即财政的宣传,财政的说法儿。事实上,跨界人士马向伍既曾任     

UTM实现统一高效的网络安全防护

随着企业信息化水准的大幅提高,计算机网络系统变得越来越复杂,面对的攻击也呈现多样化。当前,混合攻击正日趋增强,已成为主流攻击手段。混合攻击是指在同一次攻击过程中,既包含病毒攻击,也包含DoS（拒绝服务攻击）、口令攻击、路由攻击等多种攻击方式,对网络实施多方位的攻击和破坏。为了更有效地抵御混合攻击,整合了防火墙、入侵检测、入侵防御等安全策略的UTM（Unified Threat Management,统一威胁管理）设备应运而生了。     

The Swedish automobile portfolio in 1977

Abstract

In a recent paper (Hallin & Ingenbleek, 1981a), the selection procedure proposed in (Hallin, 1977) was applied to the study of the claim probability in the motor third party portfolio of an important Belgian company. The number of observations, however, did not allow for an investigation of the claim amount. The data we study here consist of the entire Swedish portfolio (more than two millions of policies). An adapted version of the selection procedure provides a good insight into the structure of the risk, hence into what the tariff structure should be ¹ The rating system used for the Swedish Automobile Insurance Portfolio is based on the factor method. This paper should be looked upon as a critical discussion of the practical application of this method and of its statistical significancy.      

Social accounting: A Swedish attempt

A new approach to social accounting is outlined and its implementation in a major Swedish company described. The accounting system is based on a goal oriented model, with explicit consideration being given to the different interests of the different organization participants. The theoretical and practical bases and problems of the approach are discussed and an English Language translation of the social accounting report is appended.     

The economic costs and benefits of UK defence exports

This study examines the economic costs and benefits to the UK of a 50 per cent cut in UK defence exports from the average level of 1998 and 1999. The net impact on the government budget is estimated to be an ongoing loss of between around £40 million and £100 million a year: around 0.2–0.4 per cent of the total UK defence budget. In addition, there is estimated to be a one‐off net adjustment cost, spread over five years, of between £0.9 billion and £1.4 billion. A further more speculative adjustment cost (estimated at around £1.1 billion) could result if the loss of income associated with the ‘terms‐of‐trade£ effect were also included. In terms of the wider debate about defence exports, the results of this study suggest first that the economic effects of the reduction in defence exports are relatively small and largely one‐off, and secondly that the balance of arguments about UK defence exports should be determined mainly by non‐economic factors.     

Cross-sectional analysis of Swedish stock returns with time-varying beta: the Swedish stock market 1983–96

This paper analyses the ability of beta and other factors, like firm size and book-to-market, to explain cross‐sectional variation in average stock returns on the Swedish stock market for the period 1983–96. We use a bivariate GARCH(1,1) process to estimate time-varying betas for asset returns. The estimated variances of these betas, derived from a Taylor series approximation, are used for correcting errors in variables. An extreme bound analysis is utilized for testing the sensitivity of the estimated coefficients to changes in the set of included explanatory variables.
Our results show that the estimated conditional beta is a more accurate measure of the true market beta than the beta estimated by OLS. The coefficient for beta is not significantly different from zero, while the variables book-to-market and leverage have significant coefficients, and the latter coefficients are also robust to model specification. Excluding the down turn 1990–92 from the sample shows that the significance of the risk premium for leverage might be considered as an industry effect during this extreme period. Finally, we find a close dependence between the risk premium for beta and that for size and book-to-market. The omission of each of these variables may cause statistical bias in the estimated coefficient for beta.     

New Swedish mortality table for annuity insurance

Abstract

The processive lowering of the general death rate during a considerable time past, which in spite of a temporary check such as the Spanish Flu epidemic of the years 1918–1920 is yet plainly evident, is a phenomenon of great significance for life insurance in general, and especially for life annuity insurance. Attention has been devoted to this trend by insurance men, and attempts have been made in several quarters to design mortality tables that could be regarded as affording ample security for the latter type of insurance. (Reference may in this connection be made to articles in ?Skandinavisk Aktuarietidskrift?, XII, p. 239 and XV, p. 45.)     

紫金自助设备智能安全防护方案简介

银行自助设备作为一种最为活跃的交易平台和支付渠道,在金融交易中发挥着越来越重要的作用。自助设备运行环境中包含诸多敏感数据,设备安全性及监控管理日益成为行业关注的课题。紫金公司在安全领域进行了深入和系统的研究,     

Probabilistic estate planning

Probabilistic estate planning is based on the principle of maximizing expected net present value commensurate with the risk assumed. Rather than assuming that death occurs at life expectancy, probabilistic estate planning treats death as a random variable. Compounded to randomly chosen ages of death, estate assets are taxed and distributed to heirs. The purpose of probabilistic estate planning is to find the estate plan and asset/liability combination that maximizes the expected net present value of assets passing to heirs and to convey some idea of the risk associated with that estate plan.     

Rhetoric, argument and impression management in hostile takeover defence documents

This exploratory study extends the analysis of narrative disclosures from routine reporting contexts such as annual reports and press releases to non-routine takeover documents where the financial consequences of narrative disclosures can be substantial. Rhetoric and argument in the form of impression management techniques in narrative disclosures are examined. Prior thematic content analysis methods for analysing good and bad news disclosures are adapted to the attacking and defensive themes in the defence documents of target companies subject to hostile takeover bids. The paper examines the incidence, extent and implications of impression management in ten hostile takeover defence documents issued by target companies listed on the London Stock Exchange between 1 January 2006 and 30 June 2008. Three impression management strategies – thematic, visual and rhetorical manipulation – are investigated using content analysis methodologies. The findings of the research indicate that thematic, visual and rhetorical manipulation is evident in hostile takeover defence documents. Attacking and defensive sentences were found to comprise the majority of the defence documents analysed. Such sentences exhibited varying degrees of visual and rhetorical emphasis, which served to award greater or lesser degrees of prominence to the information conveyed by target company management.While exploratory in nature, this paper concludes with suggestions for future more systematic research allowing for greater generalisations from the findings.     

Diversification, Ownership and Control of Swedish Corporations

We study the short‐ and long‐term valuation effects of Swedish takeovers. Using a sample of 93 bidding firms that acquired 101 targets between 1980 and 1995, we find that diversifying acquisitions lead to a negative market reaction and deterioration of the operating performance of the bidder. Announcement and performance gains in each of the three years following the acquisition occur only when bidders expand their core rather than their peripheral lines of business. Our findings suggest that focused acquisitions lead to greater synergies and operating efficiencies than diversifying acquisitions. Intra‐group acquisitions, however, show that bidders do not realise significant gains whether they adopt diversifying or focusing investment strategies by purchasing firms controlled by the Wallenberg and SHB conglomerate groups. Intra‐group targets realize significant gains regardless bidder's investment strategy. Finally, the evidence does not support the view that intra‐conglomerate acquisitions are associated with expropriation of minority shareholders. However, they appear to enhance the control rights of large shareholders of the bidding firm.     

金融理财策划研究

改革开放以来，随着我国分配格局的重大调整和国民收入水平的快速提高，居民家庭的财产数量日益增加，理财意识逐步增强，金融理财业务受到追捧，并逐渐成为商业银行市场竞争的新焦点。竞争推动创新，国内金融理财服务也在竞争中得到了快速发展，并逐渐呈现出以下趋势：     

Integrated 1000-year planning

This paper develops the concept of integrated 1000-year planning. The products of 1000-year planning, referred to as 1000-year plans, are intended to deal with issues on a global scale and address the survival of humanity and the protection of the earth’s environment. One thousand years is an appropriate global planning horizon because it is long enough to unmask big picture problems that appear to be invisible to today’s societies. Furthermore, this time horizon encourages the perspective that over the long-term, many problems that seem unsolvable today, and therefore receive little attention and few resources, can indeed be overcome. Topics of 1000-year plans are numerous and include: energy, land use, carbon management, oceans, biodiversity, nuclear and hazardous waste, water, human settlements, near-earth objects, and space exploration. The argument is made that responsibilities for action by current generations to benefit future generations be based on risk assessments and risk thresholds. In the near-term, 1000-year planning must be driven by an international grassroots coalition of scientists, policy analysts, environmentalists, planners, and concerned citizens.