The relative value of growth

Most executives would say that adding a point of growth and gaining a point of operating-profit margin contribute about equally to shareholder value. Margin improvements hit the bottom line immediately, while growth compounds value over time. But the reality is that the two are rarely equivalent. Growth often is far more valuable than managers think. For some companies, convincing the market that they can grow by just one additional percentage point can be worth six, seven, or even ten points of margin improvement. This article presents a new strategic metric, called the relative value of growth (RVG), which gives managers a clear picture of how growth projects and margin improvement initiatives affect shareholder value. Using basic balance sheet and income sheet data, managers can determine their companies' RVGs, as well as those of their competitors. Calculating RVGs gives managers insights into which corporate strategies are working to deliver value and whether their companies are pulling the most powerful value-creation levers. The author examines a number of well-known companies and explains what their RVG numbers say about their strategies. He reviews the unspoken assumption that growth and profits are incompatible over the long term and shows that a fair number of companies are effective at delivering both. Finally, he explains how managers can use the RVG framework to help them define strategies that balance growth and profitability at both the corporate and business unit levels.     

中国债券市场成长几何

当所有人都将目光投向国内如火如荼的股权分置改革之时,他却领导他的团队进驻了北京证券,获得了所有债券品种发行的牌照。当国内的券商还在生死线上徘徊的时候,他已经开始规划UBS在中国债券市场的未来定位。他就是瑞银UBS亚太区债务资本市场及风险管理联席主管曹为实先生。作为行业的专家,曹为实先生就中国债券市场未来发展等方面的问题接受了本刊记者采访     

The growth of US credit unions

The growth of US credit unions during the 1990s is investigated empirically, using univariate and multivariate cross sectional and panel estimation techniques. Univariate tests of the law of proportionate effect suggest that in general large credit unions grew faster than their smaller counterparts. On average credit unions with above-average growth in one period tended to experience below-average growth in the next. Smaller credit unions tended to have more variable growth than large ones. While credit unions share a common co-operative philosophy, they differ in terms of age profile, scope for membership growth, charter type and financial structure and performance. In estimations of a multivariate growth model, most of these characteristics are found to have a significant influence on the size-growth relationship. While large state chartered credit unions grew faster than their smaller counterparts, the reverse was true for federally chartered credit unions. In general, if larger credit unions grew faster than smaller ones, they tended to do so for specific reasons: because their charters were less restrictive, because they were more efficient, or because they had a financial structure that was more conducive to growth. Therefore credit union growth was not ‘random', but highly systematic.     

The linear growth credibility model

Abstract

The investigation of evolutionary models, i.e. models allowing the risk parameter to change in time, has been one of the main topics of research in credibility theory in the last few years. In the present paper a very special (but rather practicable) evolutionary model is defined and recursions for the credibility estimator are stated.     

The size and growth of microfinance institutions

We investigate the relationship between size (measured by total assets and number of active borrowers) and growth for a worldwide sample of microfinance institutions with different ownership forms (micro-banks, NGOs, cooperatives/credit unions and non-bank financial institutions) and commercial orientation (profit and not-for-profit) drawn from 120 countries over the period 2000 to 2014. Using a dynamic panel data model, we find little evidence that size confers growth advantages to microfinance institutions. We find some evidence that growth rates for credit unions and microfinance institutions with a not-for-profit commercial orientation present negative persistence. The variability of growth rates differs across the size distribution of microfinance institutions, and this result is consistent across commercial orientation and ownership form. Other factors affecting the growth of microfinance institutions include age (new microfinance institutions grow faster than young and mature counterparts), levels of bad debt, efficiency and regulation.     

经济增长极理论研究

经济增长极理论是20世纪40年代末50年3代西方这家关于一国经济平衡增长抑或不平衡增长大论战的产物。狭义经济增长极有三种类型，一是产业增工极，二是城市增长极，三是潜在的增长极。广义经济增长极，意谓凡能促进经济增长的积极因素和生长点，其中包括制度创新点，其中包括制度创新点、对外开放度、消费热点等待。经济增长极具有相对性和变异民生。中国区域经济发展战略经历了均衡（20世纪50－70年代）－－非均衡（80年代）－－非均衡协调（90年代）的动态发展过程。典型的发展中大国和区域经济的不平衡性这一国情和区情，决定了我们应该采用以增长极理论为基础的非均衡型区域经济发展战略。     

The effects of accounting restatements on firm growth

Do restatements result in lower firm growth? One argument in support of this contention is that accounting restatements hurt contracting relations between the firm and outside parties such as a firm’s customers and suppliers, negatively impacting firm cash flows. The negative impact on cash flow reduces the level of internal cash holdings available for investment. Another argument is that restatements dampen firm growth by increasing the firm’s cost of external financing. We empirically evaluate these arguments by using the standard sales growth based financial planning model. In carrying out our analysis, we distinguish the effects of restatement on overall firm growth as well as its components of internally and externally financed growth. Our findings suggest that overall firm growth rates decline following a restatement. Furthermore, we find that accounting restatements have a greater adverse impact on externally financed growth rates. We also find that not all restatements yield identical effects: the impact of restatements is more pronounced for the subsample of firms identified to have undertaken the more egregious fraudulent reporting than the subsample of firms that reported restatements to correct previous accounting errors. We also find that firms with severe restatements, measured based on announcement period market reactions, have lower externally financed growth. Overall, our evidence highlights the adverse impact of restatement on firm growth, particularly through external financing.     

亚洲金融机构未来继续增长将不受保障

著名金融服务战略和风险管理咨询公司Mercer Oliver Wyman公司发布的年度研究报告--"金融服务业的发展状况"认为:亚洲金融服务机构似乎已经完全摆脱了亚洲金融危机的阴影,它们在过去5年中创造了最高的股东价值增长.这一结论来自于根据Mercer Oliver Wyman公司独创的股东业绩指数(SPI)而得出的.SPI的计算是基于公司过去连续5年的业绩表现.亚洲地区(除日本)的平均SPI从2000年的负50上升到了2005年的130(以100为中值).而同一段时间,在发达地区诸如北美和欧洲,SPI值则呈下降趋势.     

制约职业经理人成长的瓶颈

职业经理人一定是视自己的职业声誉为资本的人，成功的职业经理人一定是有很好职业声誉的人。监督和塑造职业经理人的声誉，需要建立健全社会的个人信誉机制，完善经理人的业绩考评制度，更需要创造适合经理人成长的环境。这是一项需要政府，企业，社会以及经理人自身共同努力的系统工程。     

The growth crisis--and how to escape it

At a time when companies are poised to seize the growth opportunities of a rebounding economy, many of them, whether they know it or not, face a growth crisis. Even during the boom years of the past decade, only a small fraction of companies enjoyed consistent double-digit revenue growth. And those that did often achieved it through short-term measures--such as mergers and inflated price increases--that don't provide the foundation for growth over the long term. But there is a way out of this predicament. The authors claim that companies can achieve sustained growth by leveraging their "hidden assets," a wide array of underused, intangible capabilities and advantages that most established companies already hold. To date, much of the research on intangible assets has centered on intellectual property and brand recognition. But in this article, the authors uncover a host of other assets that can help spark growth. They identify four major categories of hidden assets: customer relationships, strategic real estate, networks, and information. And they illustrate each with an example of a company that has creatively used its hidden assets to produce new sources of revenue. Executives have spent years learning to create growth using products, facilities, and working capital. But they should really focus on mobilizing their hidden assets to serve their customers' higher-order needs--in other words, create offerings that make customers' lives easier, better, or less expensive. Making that shift in mind-set isn't easy, admit the authors, but companies that do it may not only create meaningful new value for their customers but also produce double-digit revenue and earnings growth for investors.     

Carbon: The real limit to growth

Under preindustrial conditions the quantities of animal and vegetable life on Earth were fixed by the rate at which animals and microorganisms could restore carbon to vegetation through atmospheric carbon dioxide. The combustion of fossil hydrocarbons has disturbed this balance by bringing “new” organically useable carbon into the ecosystem. The biomass and free carbon dioxide on the Earth has accordingly increased since the industrial revolution and will continue to increase until and beyond the cessation of hydrocarbon-based technology. The author presents arguments in support of this hypothesis and indicates in the Appendix how the carbon cycle and its response to disturbances might be treated mathematically.     

关注经济快速增长下的隐忧

中国当前的经济增长具有坚实基础,未来几年仍将继续保持高速增长的势头。但在经济繁荣的背后,更应关注存在的问题与风险。目前经济运行中存在资产价格大幅度波动和通货膨胀较快发展两大隐忧,其主要原因是经济中的结构性失衡问题。如果结构失衡不消除,未来的经济增长就会受到很大威胁。因此,在当前宏观政策的选择上,应该采取长短结合,标本兼治的办法,既解近忧,也消远虑。     

The response of real wages to unanticipated money growth

This paper investigates the response of real wages to unanticipated money growth in the light of equilibrium theories of the business cycle. These theories, in their main different versions, do not deliver a common and unambiguous hypothesis on this issue. While some models implu a countercyclical real wage response during monetary cycles, others yield the opposite result of a procyclical real wage. Econometric analysis of annual and quarterly U.S. data, reported in the paper, indicates that there is a weak negative real wage response to an unanticipated increase in money growth.     

The impact of bank merger growth on CEO compensation

We examine the impact of bank mergers on chief executive officer (CEO) compensation during the period 1992–2014, a period characterised by significant banking consolidation. We show that CEO compensation is positively related to both merger growth and non‐merger internal growth, with the former relationship being higher in magnitude. While CEO pay–risk sensitivity is not significantly related to merger growth, CEO pay–performance sensitivity is negatively and significantly related to merger growth. Collectively, our results suggest that, through bank mergers, CEOs can earn higher compensation and decouple personal wealth from bank performance. Furthermore, we document a more severe agency problem in CEO compensation as a consequence of bank mergers relative to mergers in industrial firms. Finally, we find that the post‐financial crisis regulatory reform of executive compensation in banks has limited effectiveness in curbing the merger–pay links.     

The anatomy of growth in the OECD since 1870

Conventional growth accounting exercises are extended in this paper to allow for endogeneity of capital, demographic transitions, age dependency, and employment rates, among other factors. Using data for the OECD countries in the period 1870-2006 it is shown that growth has been predominantly driven by demographics and TFP growth. TFP has, in turn, been driven by R&D, knowledge spillovers through the channel of imports, educational attainment, and the interaction between educational attainment and the distance to the technology frontier. The estimates suggest permanent growth effects of R&D and human capital.     

只有“第四驾马车”才能拉动中国经济

摘自郎咸平博客 消费品基本上可以分成三大类：民生必需品、一般消费品和奢侈品。经济萧条到底会对消费品产生什么冲击呢？如果你平常的饭量是两碗饭,即使经济萧条导致你的收入下降,你还是要吃两碗饭;反之,即使你收入上升,你也还是吃两碗饭,不可能吃五碗。所以对于民生必需品来说,萧条经济的冲击是非常小的。因此我们只讨论一般消费品和奢侈品。     

The growth of multinational firms in the Great Recession

Using a large firm-level dataset, this paper studies multinational firms׳ performance during the Great Recession. Foreign multinationals grew faster than local firms outside of the crisis, but slower during the crisis. Industry and size differences between domestic and foreign-owned firms account for much of this slowdown. However, multinationals from different countries performed differently during the crisis. The paper then assesses the role of multinationals in the global recession using a quantitative model. Had multinationals׳ relative performance remained unchanged during the crisis, the median country׳s aggregate growth would have been 0.12% higher, with a range of −0.13 to 0.5% across countries.     

低价灾难与"悲惨式增长"

不久前,经济学家赵晓撰文指出,中国经济正在步入"悲惨式增长"的经济怪圈.2005年,我国宏观经济以9.3%的增幅在超车道上高位运行,而企业利润却大幅度滑坡,陷入增产不增收乃至赔本赚吆喝的"悲惨式增长".以江苏小天鹅为例,2005年上半年销售额高达60多亿元,但利润只有区区几千万,稍有不慎,企业就会掉入亏损的深渊.     

The relationship between finance and growth in China

We examine the non-linearity between financial development and economic growth in China. Specifically, we use a threshold model to investigate whether provinces with high level of personal income can exploit financial development efficiently. Empirical analysis, using cross-provincial data from 1978 to 2010, shows that finance has a strong positive influence on growth in high-income provinces, but a strong negative impact on growth in low-income provinces. The results are robust to an alternative financial development measure. Furthermore, we find that China's state sector, notorious for inefficiency and low productivity, accounts for a large proportion of industrial output in low-income provinces, causing bank loans to have a negative impact on economic growth.