Discussion of “Back to Basics: Forecasting the Revenues of Internet Firms” and “A Rude Awakening: Internet Shakeout in 2000”

Review of Accounting Studies -     

Corporate Innovation Strategy,Analyst Forecasting Activities and the Economic Consequences

We examine the impact of corporate innovation strategy on analyst following and forecasting performance, as well as the associated economic consequences. Using a sample of US firms from 1992?2012, we find that firms pursuing an exploration‐oriented innovation strategy (as opposed to an exploitation‐oriented innovation strategy) are associated with lower analyst coverage, higher forecast error and dispersion. The effect is less pronounced for firms with greater disclosure of innovation activities, and for firms followed by analysts with more firm‐specific experience. We also examine how innovation strategy affects the perceived credibility of analyst forecasts and find that investors appear to be less responsive to forecast revisions issued for exploratory firms. Such firms also incur a higher level of cash holdings, greater internal financing, and lower dividend ratio. The findings of this paper advance our understanding of how a public company's choice of innovation strategy affects its performance in the capital markets as well as the associated economic consequences.     

西方国家碳税收入使用政策比较及其启示

碳税收入使用政策是西方国家碳税制度设计的一项重要内容,其主要基于税收中性原则,将税收收入或投资于环保节能项目,或以税式支出方式降低纳税人负担,确保碳税收入的循环,实现节能减排的目标。在我国碳税制度设计的构想中,应借鉴西方国家税制经验,结合本国现实情况,科学合理地设计碳税收入使用政策,确保碳税调节功能的充分发挥,将碳税发展成培育战略性新兴产业的重要政策工具之一。     

The Performance of Internet Firms Following Their Initial Public Offering

We find that initial returns were more favorable for Internet initial public offerings (IPOs) than non–Internet firm IPOs. Since the demise of the Internet sector, the underpricing of Internet–firm IPOs is not significantly different from other IPOs.
Initial returns of Internet firms are positively and significantly related to underwriter prestige and to pre–IPO market conditions. However, initial returns after the demise of the Internet sector are not significantly related to these characteristics.
The aftermarket performance of Internet firms is initially favorable but weakens over time. Firms that experienced higher initial returns during the strong Internet cycle experience weaker aftermarket performance.     

Improving the Precision of Analysts' Earnings Forecasts by Adjusting for Predictable Bias

This research demonstrates that publicly-available information can be used to develop estimates of analysts' optimistic bias in earnings forecasts. These bias estimates can be used to produce more accurate forecasts, resulting in significant reductions of both cross-sectional mean forecast error and error variance. When bias estimates are based on past observations of forecast error alone, however, reductions in mean forecast error are smaller, and forecast precision is unimproved. Further tests provide evidence of a significant association between returns and the bias predictable from contemporaneously-available information, suggesting that predictable bias is only partially discounted by market participants. This study has significant implications for researchers and investors. The pricing of predictable bias in analysts' forecasts may add error toinferences which are based on the association between returns and analyst forecast errors, and knowledge of the market's partial discounting of predictable bias may help investors to make more efficient resource allocations.     

Dispersion in Analyst Forecasts and the Profitability of Earnings Momentum Strategies

This paper shows that the dispersion in analysts' consensus forecasts contains incremental information to predict future stock returns. Consistent with prior research, stock prices in the German market underreact to news about future earnings and drift in the direction suggested by analysts' forecasts revisions. Even higher abnormal returns can be achieved by applying such an earnings momentum strategy to stocks with a low dispersion in analyst forecasts. These results support one of the recent behavioural models in which investors underweight new evidence and conservatively update their beliefs in the right direction, but by too little in magnitude with respect to more objective information.     

Competition among exchanges through simplified disclosure requirements: evidence from the American and Global Depositary Receipts

In this study, we address the ongoing debate as to whether the competition among the world's major exchanges through simplified disclosure requirements is justified. Companies from across the globe have a choice of cross-listing shares as either American or Global Depositary Receipts (ADRs and GDRs, respectively). The former are primarily listed on the US exchanges – NYSE, NASDAQ and AMEX – whereas the latter are issued into non-US markets such as the London Stock Exchange (LSE). The GDRs listed on the LSE are subject to simplified disclosure requirements compared to their exchange-listed ADR peers that have to meet more stringent compliance standards. Proponents of the ‘light touch’ approach argue that firms cross-listing as GDRs are not subject to the higher reporting costs faced by ADRs yet still face similar valuation benefits. Those who challenge this approach argue that simplified disclosure requirements set by the LSE will ultimately be recognised by the market as ineffective, diverting traders from investing in GDRs. This study provides evidence that supports the LSE's ‘light touch’ approach and shows that the benefits of information risk reduction for ADRs and GDRs are comparable. The explanation for this finding is that the two avenues through which information asymmetry is expected to be resolved after cross-listing – disclosure and analysts – are substitutive and make equally important contribution to information risk reduction, eventually leading to similar cost of capital decline for ADRs and GDRs.     

Does the Stock Market Fully Appreciate the Implications of Leading Indicators for Future Earnings? Evidence from Order Backlog

Although leading indicators are becoming increasingly important for equity valuation, disclosures of such indicators suffer from the absence of GAAP related guidance on content and presentation. We explicitly examine (i) whether one leading indicator—order backlog—predicts future earnings, and (ii) whether market participants correctly incorporate such predictive ability in determining share prices. We find that the stock market overweights the contribution of order backlog in predicting future earnings, and a hedge strategy that exploits such overweighting generates significant future abnormal returns. However, such mispricing is not due to analysts' inability to incorporate order backlog into their earnings forecasts.     

A Rude Awakening: Internet Shakeout in 2000

This study explores various value-drivers of business-to-consumer (B2C) Internet companies' share prices both before and after the market correction in the spring of 2000. Although many market observers had predicted that the shakeout would eventually occur (e.g., Perkins and Perkins 1999), the ultimate and previously unanswered challenge lay identifying which stocks would fall and which ones would survive the shakeout. We develop an empirical valuation model and provide evidence that the Internet stocks that this model suggests were relatively over-valued prior to the Internet stock market correction experienced relatively larger drops in their price-to-sales ratios when the shakeout occurred. This result is robust to the inclusion of competing explanatory variables suggested by the economics literature related to industry rationalizations.We examine the ability of a valuation model comprised of both financial (accounting) variables and nonfinancial web traffic metrics to explain Internet companies' market values during each of 1999 and 2000. Our findings suggest that the reach and stickiness web traffic performance measures are value-relevant to the share prices of Internet companies in each of 1999 and 2000. Our findings of significance for the year 2000 contradict the recent claims of some analysts that web traffic measures are no longer important. We also explore the valuation role of our proxy for B2C companies' current rate of cash burn and find that this proxy is a significant value-driver in each of 1999 and 2000, but with differential valuation implications for each period. Our results suggest that the market was favorably disposed towards Internet companies' aggressive cash expenditures in 1999, but appeared to adopt a more critical view of Internet companies' cash burn rates in 2000. Our results further suggest that investors adopted a more skeptical attitude towards expenditures on intangible investments as the Internet sector began to mature. We find that investors appear to implicitly capitalize product development (R&D) and advertising expenses (customer acquisition costs) during the earlier period when the market was more optimistic about the prospects of B2C companies. However, only product development costs are implicitly capitalized into value, on average, subsequent to the shakeout in the spring of 2000. Finally, we provide statistical evidence to support the conjecture that different parameter vectors characterize the estimated market valuation models for each of 1999 and 2000. Overall, our study provides a preliminary view of the shakeout and maturation of one of the most important New Economy industries to emerge to date–the Internet.     

The Impact of the Management Approach on Segment Reporting

Accounting standard setters have increasingly attempted to align external segment reporting disclosures to a firm's internal reporting structure. We study how this move to the management approach for segment reporting impacted the number of reported segments and the extent of line item disclosures when Australia adopted IAS 14 (revised) and IFRS 8. We find that both standards led to firms disclosing a greater number of segments. An examination of the motives behind the non‐disclosure of segments suggests that segment information was withheld for agency cost reasons. We find only limited support for the proprietary cost motive for non‐reporting of segments. We also document that IFRS 8 led to a reduction in the amount of line item disclosure. Consistent with a proprietary cost explanation, the decrease in disclosure is greatest for firms with a higher number of profitable segments. Our results indicate that the change to the management approach to segment identification is not associated with the properties of analyst forecasts, nor did it lead to increased analyst following.     

Accruals Management to Achieve Earnings Benchmarks: A Comparison of Pre-managed Profit and Loss Firms

Abstract:  This study examines whether firms with profits before accruals management are more likely than firms with losses before accruals management to meet or exceed earnings benchmarks when pre-managed earnings are below those benchmarks. We extend Brown (2001) by documenting that the differential propensity to achieve earnings benchmarks by profitable and nonprofitable firms results from differential accruals management behavior. We find that firms with profits before accruals management are more likely than firms with losses before accruals management to have pre-managed earnings below both analysts' forecasts and prior period earnings and reported earnings above these benchmarks.     

土地出让收入、地方财政支出对我国房价影响的区域差异性研究

利用2002～2011年30个省市面板数据分析土地出让收入、地方财政支出对我国房价影响的区域差异性。研究结果表明,东中西部三个区域的土地出让收入与地方财政支出对房价的影响均存在不同程度的时滞效应;短期内土地出让收入与地方财政支出对房价的作用效果并无显著的区域差异性,但就长期发展趋势来看,东部与西部地区仍以地方财政支出影响为主,而中部地区的情况却出现了逆转,土地出让收入对房价的刺激作用要显著大于财政支出。     

Forecasting the past: the case of US interest rate forecasts

This study evaluates 10-year US government bond yield forecasts and three-month US Treasury bill rate forecasts for the period between October 1989 and December 2004. In total, 136 forecast time series with approximately 13,800 forecast data were scrutinized, making this the most extensive analysis of interest rate forecasts to date. Not one of the forecast time series proved to be unbiased. In the majority of cases, information from the past was not efficiently integrated into the forecasts. The sign accuracy is significantly better than random walk forecasts in only a very few of the forecast time series. The modified Diebold–Mariano test for forecast encompassing reveals that the information content of most of the forecast time series is lower than that of the naïve forecasts, the simple ARIMA models, the implicit forward rates, or average interest rate expectations. The forecasting process is dominated by the present and past market situation.     

从网点到云端：互联网金融视野下的商业银行变革

本文对互联网金融发展的模式及优势进行了分析,指出互联网金融的普惠性、融合性、高效灵活,将弱化商业银行的中介作用,对商业银行的盈利模式等产生影响。对此,本文从培养互联网思维、“应用端+云服务”的模式、加强大数据应用等七个方面阐述了商业银行的变革之路。     

Conflicts of Interest and Research Quality of Affiliated Analysts in the German Universal Banking System: Evidence from IPO Underwriting

The quality of equity research by financial analysts is a prerequisite for an efficient capital market. This study investigates the quality of earnings forecasts and stock recommendations for initial public offerings (IPOs) in Germany. The empirical study includes 12,605 earnings forecasts and 6,209 stock recommendations of individual analysts for the time period from 1997 to 2004. The focus of this study is on analysing the potential conflicts of interest that arise when the analyst is affiliated with the underwriter of an IPO. In a universal banking system these conflicts of interest are usually more pronounced and therefore interesting to investigate. The empirical findings for the German financial market suggest that earnings forecasts and stock recommendations of the analysts belonging to the lead-underwriter are on average inaccurate and biased, indicating some conflicts of interest. Moreover, the stock recommendations of the analysts that are affiliated with the lead-underwriter are often too optimistic resulting in a significant long-run underperformance for the investor. In contrast, unaffiliated analysts provide better earnings forecasts and stock recommendations that result in a superior performance for the investor.     

US Fiscal Sustainability and the Causality Relationship between Government Expenditures and Revenues: A New Approach Based on Quantile Cointegration

This paper first aims to reinvestigate the issue of US fiscal sustainability by using the quantile cointegration approach proposed by Xiao (2009 and 2012). Our empirical evidence indicates a quantile‐dependent cointegrating relationship between government expenditures and revenues. In addition, this paper examines the long‐run causality relationship between expenditures and revenues by using the vector error‐correction (VEC) model with coefficients based on the different quantiles. Findings from the long‐run Granger‐causality analyses support the spend‐and‐tax hypothesis. Our investigation suggests that the government should show more discretion in increasing expenditures in the long run. Moreover, budget deficit reduction can only be achieved through reductions in government expenditures.     

Short selling and the independence of business-related analysts: Evidence from an emerging market

This paper investigates whether short-sale deregulation improves analysts' independence in an emerging market where conventional mechanisms mitigating conflicts of interest are either ineffective or absent. Short selling reduces the effectiveness of analysts' favourable opinions in creating or sustaining overvalued stock prices, thus decreasing the incentives of institutional clients of brokerages to exert pressure on related analysts to initiate coverage and issue biased opinions. Using a difference-in-difference approach, we find strong evidence that stocks that are eligible for short sales experience a greater reduction in coverage by related analysts than stocks that are ineligible for short sales. When covered firms become eligible for short sales, the quality of forecasts and recommendations issued by related analysts improves considerably. Further analyses show that shortable firms with a significant reduction in related analysts' coverage are more likely to underperform and to experience stock price crashes in the future. Altogether, our results are consistent with short selling effectively restoring related analysts' independence in emerging markets.     

The Role of Book Income, Web Traffic, and Supply and Demand in the Pricing of U.S. Internet Stocks

In this paper I assess the degree of similarity in the cross-sectionalpricing of Internet and non-Internet stocks during the tumultuousyear of 2000. Despite large differences in their economic fundamentals, I find that the equity market values of Internetfirms with immaterial web traffic, firms that are randomly selected, and firms that went public atthe same time as Internet firms are similarly related to analysts' forecasts of earnings in 2001 andthe long-term rate of growth in earnings. This is not the case for firms with intensive web traffic.I also find that at the peak of Internet prices in March 2000 the market rewarded losses ofweb-traffic-intensive firms but did not reward profits, while after the peak the market reversed itsview, rewarding profits but not losses. Beyond earnings, web traffic is significantly positivelypriced both at and after the Internet peak. However, I find no evidence that two proxies forsupply and demand forces – the degree of public float and short interest – are value-relevantfor Internet firms. Overall, I argue that there are enough similarities in the cross-sectional pricingof Internet and non-Internet firms to make it unlikely that the pricing of Internet stocks during2000 was entirely irrational. Moreover, any irrationality in the prices of Internet stockscannot be linked to public float and short interest.     

银行业面对互联网金融挑战的应对策略——基于大数据背景下的思考

伴随着信息技术及互联网的快速发展,社会正在走向全面数字化。大数据、云计算等技术的异军突起使得居民的生活行为方式和企业的生产经营方式都发生了显著变化,科技进步带来的数字化变革正在影响并形成全新的生活习惯和商业模式。在这种大背景下,以网络为载体的互联网金融改变了金融运营模式,传统的银行业正在面临严峻考验。商业银行必须全面认识大数据技术变革带来的影响,转变经营策略,积极应对互联网金融带来的深刻变革。