An extended picture fuzzy multicriteria group decision analysis with different weights: A case study of COVID-19 vaccine allocation

The high contagion rates of COVID-19 and the limited amounts of vaccines forced public health authorities to develop vaccinations strategies for minimizing mortality, avoiding the collapse of health care infrastructure, and reducing their negative impacts to societies and economies. We propose a Multi Criteria Group Decision Making for prioritizing a set of COVID-19 vaccination alternatives, under a picture fuzzy environment, where the weights for Decisions Experts (DE) and criteria are unknown. A panel of six DEs assess six criteria for prioritizing four groups for vaccination. The weights for DE and criteria are handled in the form of fuzzy sets. Three types of weights are calculated: subjective, objective, and mixture weights.According to our results, three out of the six criteria hold 60% of the strategic importance: 1) allocation and distribution, 2) COVID-19 strains and 3) capabilities and infrastructures. However, persons with comorbidities became the group with the highest priority, followed by essential workers, women, and adults older than 40 years. Governments, decision makers, and policy makers can find rigorous scientific evidence for articulating effective vaccinations campaigns from this work, and contribute to minimize undesired outputs, such as high mortality rates or collapse of hospitals.     

A cost-effectiveness approach to planning and control for the nonprofit organization—a university example

An initial cost-effectiveness model which simultaneously considers interrelationships among outputs, resources and subjective values held by decision makers is developed for use in the resource allocation process within a university setting. Based upon the reactions of selected decision makers at the University of Illinois, an expanded model of a resource allocation system is developed as a means for integrating academic and financial planning within a college. The expanded model illustrates how the cost-effectiveness concept may be tailored to the needs of decision makers in other non-profit organizations.     

Assessment of Consumer Behavior Towards Environmental Responsibility: A Structural Equations Modeling Approach

This paper analyses the factors impacting consumer environmental responsibility using a structural equation modeling approach. Consumer environmental responsibility is the intention of a person to act towards remediation of environmental problems not as an individual user with economic interests but as a responsible citizen having concerns about the social and environmental wellbeing of society. Therefore, awareness of environmental problems and knowledge of remedial alternatives will help individuals to pursue their chosen action and bolster a genuine desire to act and determine the measures for alleviation of environmental challenges. The four dimensions of an environmentally responsible consumer – opinion and beliefs, willingness, awareness, and an ability to act – are analysed. During the analysis, the dimension of ‘ability to move’ is found to be critical, because it has a direct influence on the capacity of the consumer to act. This research is intended to guide policy‐ and decision‐makers of regulatory bodies in understanding consumer behavior towards improving environmental performance index. It also helps organizational managers to make their supply chains green, and competitive, which in turn improves brand image and overall organizational performance. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment     

The Manager’s Notepad: Working Memory,Exploration, and Performance

This study builds upon March and Simon’s proposition that individual‐level differences must be considered when explaining decision‐making performance. We extend their discussion on the importance of decision‐makers’ attention to explain heterogeneous patterns of exploration and exploitation within the same uncertain environment. We develop a model of decision‐making under uncertainty in which ‘working memory’ – i.e., the ability to hold multiple elements in mind to actively process them – explains the emergence of heterogeneity in exploration‐exploitation choice patterns. We validated the model in a laboratory study and two replications involving 171 individuals. Our findings show that differences in working memory allow us to identify individuals who are more likely to choose exploration over exploitation appropriately, and thus achieve higher performance. We discuss the implications for management theories, and re‐propose the work of March and Simon as a unifying framework that still can be used to generate and test managerially relevant hypotheses.     

A fuzzy multi-objective programming approach for determination of resilient supply portfolio under supply failure risks

The main contribution of this paper is to develop a new decision tool that interprets strategies for determination of resilient supply portfolio under supply failure risks. The strategic decisions include the allocation of emergency capacities to be pre-positioned at backup suppliers, the output of which can be increased in the event of mitigating a shortage caused by another supplier's failure. The model contains three objective functions – minimising the total cost, minimising the net rejected items and minimising the net late deliveries – while satisfying capacity and minimum order quantity requirement constraints. A weighted additive fuzzy multi-objective model is proposed to simultaneously consider the imprecision of information and the relative importance of objectives for determining the allocation of order quantity and emergency capacity to each supplier. The application of the proposed model is illustrated using an example case of global supply chains with different supplier characteristics.     

Evidence of sophisticated voting in a committee setting: theory and experiments

This article seeks to use laboratory experimental methods in order to investigate the extent to which decision makers employ sophisticated voting strategies. Using two experimental settings that provide very different incentives for sophisticated voting behavior, the analysis turns up little evidence that participants rely on perfect foresight when confronting lengthy voting agendas. However, these experimental results point toward members using a weaker version of sophistication when anticipating complex decision settings. The findings from this article suggest that decision makers employ only limited foresight when choosing among voting strategies.     

Integrated environmental policy instruments driven river water pollution management decision system

Market-based approaches and command and control regulations are the two main tools that policy/decision makers use to implement environmental protection goals; however, these alone have proven to be somewhat ineffective or counterproductive in some cases. Therefore, this study proposes a hybrid environmental policy tool to guide river basin environmental management decisions. The river basin authority and regional Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), as the two leading decision makers, and policy makers and implementers of river basin management, make decisions sequentially in a process similar to a Stackelberg game. This decision making can be mathematically represented using a bi-level optimization model. The proposed model addressed the conflicting equitable resource allocation and economic efficiency objectives to achieve coordinated development of the whole river basin. To verify the model effectiveness, the most considerable pollutant emissions limits and water quality standards were set, and incentive measures (pollution chargers and subsidies) were applied to assess these hybrid instruments' impact on the decision outcomes. The results from a Minjiang river basin case further illustrated that the trade-off between social equity and cost-efficient environmental goals could efficiently achieve, proving that a combination of instruments could be influential in pollution decision-making and delivery of environmental policy. Given the model's proven effectiveness, several proposals are given for solving complex pollution problems that also need to consider the related socioeconomic issues.     

Tele-fund raising: what's it all about?

Now in its 12th year, Tele-Response Center Inc. raises funds and awareness through donor acquisition, renewal/cultivation and lapsed donor campaigns, direct mail follow up, special events, advertising sales for non-profit publications, and volunteer recruitment campaigns.     

Strategic task forces

Nonprofit organisations frequently face challenges that cannot be resolved by staff, board members and other volunteers. Marketing themselves, whether to build awareness and recognition, or more specifically to raise funds, is one such challenge. Another is the development of strong, highly networked new volunteers both to assist with specific issues and to serve later in other capacities. ‘Strategic task forces’ offer one way to address immediate needs but also can serve as a means of more strategically approaching marketing issues such as awareness and recognition among key decision makers. A case study and analysis are presented to demonstrate the use of strategic task forces and how they can be utilised to accomplish both tactical and strategic objectives at the same time. Copyright © 2002 Henry Stewart Publications     

Mutual fund performance: The decision quality and capital magnet efficiencies

This study employs a two-stage network data envelopment analysis model to analyze the decision quality and capital magnet efficiencies of 155 mutual funds in Taiwan during the period 2007–2016. The empirical results show that fund managers improved their decision quality; however, their capital magnet efficiency declined. This study also found 10 mutual funds performing in decision quality and capital magnet efficiencies, from which practical suggestions are provided to investors. Finally, this study constructs a market competition matrix to help fund managers (and investors) improve their operating and portfolio performance, plus resource allocation.     

An Empirical Exploration of Decision-making Under Agency Controls and Stewardship Structure

abstract Two theories have emerged in the managerial control literature as to the best way for organizations to ensure that managers are acting in the firm's best interest: agency theory, which stresses controlling decision‐makers through monitoring and incentives aligned with organizational goals, and stewardship theory, which stresses that decision‐makers will act in the organization's best interest even in the absence of controls. Much of the research investigating the utility of these two positions is based on archival data where actual decision‐making can only be inferred. In this study, we utilize a laboratory methodology in order to determine if decision‐makers actually make different decisions when under the types of control (or lack thereof) suggested in these two theories. The results of this study show that individuals under agency controls invest more in alternatives that maximize profits of an organization than individuals under stewardship controls.     

金融素养、金融资产配置与投资组合有效性

基于动态最优控制理论模型，运用中国家庭微观调查数据，系统研究了金融素养在家庭金融资产配置中的作用及对投资组合有效性的影响。理论分析表明，在一定条件下，金融素养能够显著提升家庭资产中风险性资产的配置比重，有助于实现消费效用最大化。考虑了内生性的实证分析结果表明：金融素养对于风险性资产与金融资产具有显著的正向影响，但无法作用于国债这类无风险资产；金融素养的提升有助于增加股票与基金的配置概率，有助于实施积极的投资策略，但对消极投资策略不显著；金融素养的提升能够显著增加家庭投资组合有效性，促使家庭获得更多的超额回报。     

The effect of environmental information on investment allocation decisions – an experimental study

This paper focuses on the use of environmental information in investment decision making. The research approach employed is based on an experiment where three groups of final year finance students were asked to allocate investment funds between two companies based on financial accounts and information material from these companies in which environmental information was included in varying degrees. The overall conclusion is that the qualitative environmental information affects short term allocation decisions, hence indicating a risk reduction potential of environmental information comparable to the classic interpretation of financial information. The quantitative environmental information included in the experiment seems to mitigate rather than extend the directional effect of more environmental information. The evidence also seems to indicate that decision makers are not always aware which information categories affect their decision making. Hence, this has implications for how the potential value of environmental information is to be assessed. Finally, experimental studies as a methodology seem to be better suited to indicate actual effects of different types of information on decision making than attitude surveys. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment.     

Social norms and recognition in social fundraising campaigns: The moderating role of self-construal

Developing effective solicitation campaigns has become a priority for nonprofit organizations to raise funds. To do so, they have begun to introduce social information and recognition mechanisms in their campaigns to encourage donations, yet our current understanding of the effectiveness of these interventions is limited. This study intends to contribute to a better understanding of the effectiveness of these campaigns by investigating the role played by social norms, recognition, and their interplay in charitable giving. In addition, the study also investigates the extent to which these effects are moderated by self-construal, an important individual psychological trait. This empirical investigation conducted an experimental design between subjects on a sample of 261 participants. A two-stage correction approach was used to estimate two dependent variables. The effectiveness of social norms and recognition varies depending on the decision in play (whether to donate, or how much to donate) as well as on an individual's self-construal (independent or interdependent). Strategies that combine several of these mechanisms should take into account their objective, that is, whether it is focused on boosting symbolic support or on incentivizing significant contributions. This article contributes by demonstrating that the type of social norm and the type of recognition matter, as they produce significant different effects on both the donation decision and the donation amount.     

Sustainable Consumption: Proposal of a Multistage Model to Analyse Consumer Behaviour for Organic Foods

Explanatory models of consumer behaviour can be used to steer decision‐making in the complex task of designing generic strategies to increase sustainable consumption. This paper proposes an operational model which assumes that the purchase of an organic food is a complex process that can be broken down into phases. It is applied to a concrete case – organic olive oil in the Spanish market – quantifying each phase to determine which ones should be acted on to increase demand. Results indicate that it is possible to adopt the model proposed, and that the problems hindering consumption are a lack of confidence in organic certification, not perceiving differences between organic and conventional foods, and the perception of barriers in their purchase. Given the context, marketing communications strategies have a key role to play. This model can be used to analyse the specific situation of each market and propose development strategies. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment     

A systems approach to the transfer of mutually dependent technologies

This paper presents a systems approach to the transfer of appropriate technology to less developed countries (LDCs). Technology transfer is essential for the economic and social development of these countries. However, due in part to a lack of systemic thinking, many LDCs have been unable to achieve successful transfers. In considering technologies as mutually dependent, we develop a framework that views technology transfer in a holistic perspective in order to model the allocation of LDCs' limited resources to their industrial sectors. The selection of appropriate partners for technology transfer is also discussed using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). This framework, we feel, can help decision makers in LDCs incorporate technology transfers into their national planning efforts.     

The “Bologna Process” and college enrollment decisions

We use survey data on high school graduates before and after the Italian reform of tertiary education implementing the “Bologna Process” to estimate its impact on college enrollment. Individuals leaving school after the reform have a probability of enrollment that is 15% higher compared to otherwise identical individuals. This increase is concentrated among individuals with good school performance and low parental background. We interpret this result as an indication of the existence of constraints – for good students from less advantaged households – on the optimal schooling decision. We also find a small negative impact of the reform on university drop-out.     

Global supplier selection using fuzzy analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy goal programming

Global supplier selection is a multi-goal multi-criteria problem which needs to consider both qualitative and quantitative factors. Which suppliers are the best and how much should be purchased from the selected suppliers is an important purchasing issue for manufacturers. Traditionally, decision makers can determine the best supplier from evaluating few suppliers with qualitative supplier selection criteria by using fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP), but evaluate dozens of global suppliers simultaneously or determine the order quantity from them will be complex and difficult. Meanwhile, decision makers can determine the order quantity form the suitable suppliers by using fuzzy goal programming (FGP); however, it is not easy to decide weights for each goal of global supplier selection with different supply chain strategies. This study integrated the FAHP and FGP (FAHP-FGP) method to be a new approach for global supplier selection in considering the manufacturer’s supply chain strategies. With FAHP-FGP method, the manufacturer can consistently integrate multi-manager’ opinions in determining weights of each goal and obtain the order quantities for suitable suppliers based on manufacturer’s strategies. To demonstrate the usefulness of the proposed method, a real-world case of a digital consumer products manufacturer is presented.     

Experimental Study of Firm Bounded Rationality and the Pattern of Trade

This paper describes an experiment and simulation with features of a spatially explicit trading environment. Decision makers repeatedly make decisions about firm headquarters, input demands, and export patterns. A goal of this research is to determine if subjects’ management decisions reflect profit maximization, learning, or heuristic decision making. It also considers what impact decision makers’ bounded rationality has on the aggregate pattern of trade. Results indicate that bounded rationality in the form of learning and heuristic decision making are ubiquitous features of subjects’ decisions. This manifests as under‐reaction to trade‐driver stimuli and produces Trefler's missing trade, suggesting a behavioral basis for this anomaly.