近60年来新疆经济重心转移的三次产业分解分析

本文利用区域重心的概念和模型,计算出新疆1949年～2009年经济（GDP）重心和三次产业重心,同时利用GIS技术将重心变化制作成图,得到建国以来新疆经济（GDP）重心和三次产业重心的动态演变轨迹;在此基础上分析了新疆总体经济发展和三次产业发展的区域差异的动态变化及其关系。结果表明：新疆经济（GDP）重心和三次产业的经济重心不仅存在很大的偏离,而且移动的方向和距离也存在较悬殊的差别;新疆经济（GDP）重心缓慢地向东北移动,区域经济差异总体上扩大了,造成区域经济差异的主要原因是第二、第三产业发展的区域差异。     

产业转移的引力模型及实证研究

以广东产业和人力资源双转移为背景,结合价值管理理论和牛顿万有引力理论建立了双转移的引力模型,并且运用聚类分析。在此基础上,结合实证数据,总结出广东省产业与人力资源双转移的路径规律,为实现广东产业双转移提供理论依据。     

Regionalism and Gravity

Gravity models have been extensively used to evaluate the trade effects of regional trading arrangements, (RTAs), especially over the last 10 years or so. Questions addressed by researchers include, is there a regional bias to trade and are there identifiable trade affects attributable to RTAs? This paper reviews the evidence extant from this literature and evaluates the modelling and methodological issues confronted when applying gravity modelling to the analysis of regionalism. The paper argues that the approach has a distinctive role to play in evaluating trade effects and its application has been enhanced by both the refinement of theoretical underpinnings and development of econometric technique.     

Gravity for FDI

Gravity equations explaining foreign affiliates' sales are ad hoc and hence estimated coefficients are hard to interpret. We therefore provide the theoretical underpinnings of the gravity equation applied to the analysis of sales of foreign affiliates of multinational firms. We argue that the success of the gravity equation results from the fact that it can be derived from various theoretical models. We illustrate this point by deriving a gravity equation from three different models of multinational firms. Using data on real affiliate sales, we show how the gravity equation can nevertheless be used to discriminate between the different theoretical models.     

原木产品设计与质量管理

原木产品质量管理是指在原木产品的形成、检验、流通过程中的质量管理和控制。其任务就是通过介绍原木产品质量管理理论与方法,达到严格按照质量标准科学组织生产、提高原木产品质量的目的。原木是森工企业的主产品,是一种初级产品,并属于自愿约束性产品,主要作为其他产品的原产料使用没原木产品质量的高低,直接影响着森工企业的经济效益。如何速生、优质、丰产培育林木并使之得以有效利用,则显得尤为重要。     

The Geometry of the Distance Coefficient in Gravity Equations in International Trade

Gravity equations in trade imply that trade flows are proportional to the size of a country and inversely proportional to distance. This paper develops the analogy of gravity in physics with gravity in trade and provides geometric intuition for a large class of mathematical processes in two‐dimensional space for which these relationships would be expected. This model implies that distances between countries in empirical gravity estimations should be measured as weighted harmonic means of pairwise distances of local economic activity.     

The Global Disconnect: The Role of Transactional Distance and Scale Economies in Gravity Equations

Recent empirical analyses show that asset flows can be modelled by the same 'gravity' equations that trade economists have used so successfully for the past few decades. This is something of a surprise. Trade economists do not yet have a unified theory of why gravity models should work‐and the situation is worse for asset flows. Reasonable theories would predict that greater distance between countries should generate more asset flows rather than less as the econometric results seem to consistently show. In this paper we discuss how host and source country GDPs, language, and distance the core explanatory variables in the traditional gravity models‐fare in trade and asset flows estimations. While the 'distance puzzle' is not resolved, it is considerably reduced by going beyond consideration of physical distance to concepts of transactional distance and scale economies.     

Gravity models of trade-based money laundering

Several attempts have been made in the literature to measure money laundering. However, the adequacy of these models is difficult to assess, as money laundering takes place secretly and, hence, goes unobserved. An exception is Trade-Based Money Laundering (TBML), a special form of trade abuse that has been discovered only recently. TBML refers to criminal proceeds that are transferred around the world using fake invoices that under- or overvalue imports and exports. This article is a first test on the well-known prototype models proposed by Walker and Unger to predict illicit money laundering flows and to apply traditional gravity models familiar in international trade theory. To do so, we use a dataset of Zdanowicz of TBML flows from the US to 199 countries. Our test rejects the specifications of the Walker and Unger prototype models, at least for TBML. The traditional gravity model that we present can explain TBML flows worldwide in a plausible manner. An important determinant is trade in which TBML is hidden. Furthermore, our results suggest that criminals use TBML in order to escape the stricter anti-money laundering regulations of financial markets.     

Gravity models in integrated panels

This paper shows that standard gravity models of foreign trade include non-stationary variables (bilateral trade and GDP of trading partners). Furthermore, gravity models are characterized by inherited cross-sectional correlation between the panel units (country pairs). Therefore, the results of the standard panel unit root tests are biased and outperformed by the simple cross-sectionally augmented panel unit root test according to Pesaran (J Appl Econom 22:265–312, 2007). Nevertheless, the fixed effects estimator is similar to the dynamic OLS or fully modified OLS, which take into account the non-stationarity of analyzed macroeconomic variables as well as possible endogeneity between output and trade.     

中国碳排放与交通运输碳排放重心演变及对比分析

引入“重心”概念和分析模型,采用1996～2010年中国各省级区域的终端能源消耗和交通运输能源消耗数据,计算出全国碳排放重心和交通运输碳排放重心的地理坐标,并通过15年间的重心演变轨迹分析全国碳排放和交通运输碳排放的区域差异及其相互关系,结果表明:近15年来,全国碳排放重心和交通运输碳排放重心移动轨迹均位于我国南北地理分界线和中西部衔接区域,东、西部区域差异均大于南、北方区域差异;两组重心移动轨迹都有较为明显的阶段性特征,但在经、纬度方向上的相关性不显著;碳排放重心总体上往西南移动,与地理几何中心相比,东、西部区域差异在缩小,南、北方区域差异在扩大,交通运输碳排放重心无明显的方向性发展趋势,但年际间的变化幅度较大,各区域交通运输碳排放没有得到有效的控制.     

我国经济重心与环境污染重心的演变及其对比分析

本文应用重心研究方法计算分析了我国经济重心和环境污染重心的动态演化过程,然后在经度和纬度方向上进一步对比分析,在实证基础上阐明了我国经济发展与环境污染之间的联系.研究结果表明自1985年以来,我国经济重心表现为"西南-东南-正东"方向的移动轨迹,而环境污染重心均向低经度、低纬度方向移动,并且经济重心和环境重心之间呈负相关性.     

Alternative Techniques for Estimation of Cross-Section Gravity Models

This paper compares four different estimators with respect to their suitability for cross‐section gravity model estimation. In many circumstances, a Hausman–Taylor approach can be recommended. This framework may provide consistent parameter estimates, when OLS or the traditional random‐effects model are biased. In contrast to the fixed‐effects approach, it allows to estimate parameters of variables such as GDP or GDP per capita, which vary only in a single dimension. The Hausman–Taylor model deserves attention in the estimation of cross‐sectional gravity models.     

经济系统引力论——市场·道德·政治结构体系的经济均衡规范场理论研究论纲

本文秉承瓦尔拉斯的“普遍的相互依赖性”研究原则,运用思想实验的理论研究方法,拟订一个探索性研究纲领,研究一种比亚当·斯密那只“看不见的手”更为普遍的经济秩序：看不见的手（市场力量）＋看得见的左手（道德力量）＋看得见的右手（政治力量）,试图构造一种引力场方程,表述经济世界中市场力量、精神世界中道德力量、社会结构中政治力量构成的三极统一体的相互作用。首先,通过引入Smale的均衡流形概念统一处理市场均衡、人性均衡、社会均衡同时达成的整体的、统一的均衡状态;然后,建立一种正义空间概念范畴,而正义空间恰为一种引力空间,且是商品空间（拓扑空间）的推广;再运用Debreu的超额需求函数法,建构了一种市场·道德·政治三极世界四维空间的经济均衡规范场方程;最后,提出广义一般经济均衡机制统一处理“看不见的手”与“看得见的双手”之间的耦合问题,通过定义“看不见的手”为基本相互作用力,“看得见的右手”为强相互作用力,“看得见的左手”为弱相互作用力,这就形成了一种新的秩序。对这种秩序下的资源配置机制的数学表达式我们称其为四维流形的几何与拓扑．太文给出了i专一糖槌的一种数学证明．     

俄罗斯调整原木出口关税政策的动因分析

俄罗斯大幅提高原木出口关税率,引起了俄罗斯欧洲原木进口国芬兰、瑞典的不满,从而阻碍了其加入WTO的进程。俄罗斯分阶段大幅提高原木出口关税率的用意何在?文章从经济利益、战略目标及关税效应三个方面对此进行了探讨,认为俄罗斯提高原木出口关税政策的真正动因是利益的驱动,这种利益不仅包括对目前利益的关注,也包括对未来利益的追求和利用森林资源大国地位改变木材贸易利益在各国的分配等方面。     

基于重力模型的中国金融中心体系识别

金融中心是新经济地理学研究的重要领域,金融中心识别是金融中心研究的基础性工作.沿袭金融地理学的分析脉络,从“信息”的角度解释金融中心的形成与演化机制,探究金融中心与信息腹地的关系,以及技术进步和放松管制对不同类型金融中心的影响.引入“重力模型”,将空间要素纳入到金融中心体系识别框架中,对我国金融中心体系进行识别.通过模拟全国、省域两大尺度城市空间金融联系,确定金融中心及其腹地范围,识别并划分我国南、北两大区域金融中心体系,最终得到区域金融中心4个,省域金融中心27个.通过对两大区域体系的对比分析,结果显示南部体系在金融规模、腹地范围、体系结构、发展趋势等四个方面都优于北部体系.     

The fundamentals of sovereign debt sustainability: evidence from 15 OECD countries

We study the sustainability of sovereign debt accumulation in 15 OECD countries using quarterly data from 1980 to 2010 with a focus on how and in what countries debt sustainability changed after the commencement of the Euro Convergence Criteria in 1997 as well as after the financial meltdown in 2007. We define sustainability as the validity of the inter-temporal budget constraint of the government and test a sufficient condition motivated by Bohn (Q J Econ, 113(3):949–963, 1998) using single-country and pooled regressions. We find evidence that the Euro Convergence Criteria contributed to the sustainability of debt accumulation. Further, while the yield spreads suggest the debt crisis is a problem of the southern Euro countries, we find a lack of debt sustainability for Greece, Portugal and France but not for Italy and Spain. In terms of debt sustainability, the crisis adversely affected primarily stand-alone countries rather than members of the European Monetary Union. Nevertheless, yield spreads increased more in the southern countries of the monetary union than in stand-alone countries. Our results support the view that countries within a monetary union are more prone to investors’ sentiments than stand-alone countries.     

Reciprocal Trade Agreements in Gravity Models: A Meta-Analysis

The gravity model is a workhorse tool applicable in a wide range of empirical fields. It is regularly used to estimate the impact of reciprocal trade agreements (RTAs) on trade flows between partners. The studies report very different estimates since there is a significant difference in datasets, sample sizes, and independent variables. This paper combines, explains, and summarizes a large number of results using a meta-analysis approach. We provide pooled estimates, obtained from fixed and random effects models of the RTAs' effect size on bilateral trade: the hypothesis that there is no effect of RTAs on trade is robustly rejected at standard significance levels. The information collected on each estimate allows us to test the sensitivity of the results to alternative specifications and differences in the control variables considered, as well as the impact of the publication selection process.     

贸易引力模型:来自中国的实证与启示

作者在采用并修正贸易引力模型的基础上,验证了决定中国双边贸易的主要因素是贸易伙伴的经济规模(GDP总量)、人口、空间距离和贸易政策等,并通过Beta系数检验证明区域经济合作组织是影响中国对外贸易最重要的因素;通过贸易潜力分析,说明中国目前应当充分重视国内市场,坚持扩大内需的战略,同时积极调整贸易结构,改善贸易增长方式。