A new approach based on BWM and MULTIMOORA methods for calculating semi-human development index: An application for provinces of Iran

Human Development Index (HDI) is a useful tool for policy makers to understand the degree of development in their societies and set new policies to improve it. Traditionally, the United Nations Development Program (UNDP) releases HDI scores of countries based on the three key dimensions of healthy life, population education and standards of living annually. However, HDI scores have some deficiencies such as methodology, indexes selection and measures time lag. In this paper, a new approach is proposed to calculate semi-HDI scores. First, in each dimension of health, education and standard of living, new and extra criteria are selected. Then, policy makers' preferences are considered to assign the weights of criteria in each dimension using best worst method (BWM). Then, MULTIMOORA method is applied to rank provinces of Iran in each dimension. Finally, the semi-HDI scores of provinces are calculated based on geometric mean of healthy life, population education and living standards. According to the semi-HDI scores, Kohgiluyeh & Boyer- Ahmad and Sistan & Baluchestan provinces are the most and the least developed provinces of Iran, respectively.     

A data envelopment analysis game theory approach for constructing composite indicator: An application to find out development degree of cities in West Azarbaijan province of Iran

Data envelopment analysis (DEA) model has been widely applied for constructing composite indicator and finding development degree of areas. With the increasing number of indicators, the distinguish power of DEA model is decreased. In this paper, in order to increase distinguish power in DEA model and find out the fair weights in cross-efficiency DEA context, the game theory approach is applied. The DEA-Game theory approach is used to rank cities in West Azarbaijan province of Iran. First, 68 suitable indicators are determined and then, the indicators are classified in 10 sectors. Finally, the actual data for year 2013 is gathered and DEA-Game theory model is applied. To verify and validate the DEA-Game theory approach, simple additive weighting (SAW) and TOPSIS methods are used and the results are compared. The Spearman correlation between DEA-Game, SAW and TOPSIS models shows that the DEA-Game theory model is suitable for constructing the composite indicators.     

城市基础设施可持续发展水平的组合评价

基于"驱动力—状态—响应"模型,构建了城市基础设施可持续发展水平评价指标体系。运用因子分析、主成分分析、熵值法、灰色评价和集对分析构成的方法集对全国31个省市的基础设施可持续发展水平进行了综合评价。通过Kendall-W协和系数法对各评价结果进行事前一致性检验,在保证各方法评价结果具有一致性的前提下,运用算术平均组合评价模型、Borda组合评价模型和Copeland组合评价模型对方法集中单一方法的评价结果进行组合评价,最后采用Spearman等级相关系数进行组合评价方法的事后检验,选出最优的组合评价方法,得到全国31个省市的最终排名并对此进行了聚类分析。     

An integrated fuzzy mathematical model and principal component analysis algorithm for forecasting uncertain trends of electricity consumption

This paper introduces an integrated algorithm for forecasting electricity consumption (EL) based on fuzzy regression, time series and principal component analysis (PCA) in uncertain markets such as Iran. The algorithm is examined by mean absolute percentage error, analysis of variance (ANOVA) and Duncan Multiple Range Test. PCA is used to identify the input variables for the fuzzy regression and time series models. Monthly EL in Iran is used to show the superiority of the algorithm. Moreover, it is shown that the selected fuzzy regression model has better estimated values for total EL than time series. The algorithm provides as good results as intelligent methods. However, it is shown that the algorithm does not require utilization of preprocessing methods but genetic algorithm, artificial neural network and fuzzy inference system require preprocessing which could be a cumbersome task to deal with ambiguous data. The unique features of the proposed algorithm are three fold. First, two type of fuzzy regressions with and without preprocessed data are prescribed by the algorithm in order to minimize the bias. Second, it uses PCA approach instead of trial and error method for selecting the most important input variables. Third, ANOVA is used to statistically compare fuzzy regression and time series with actual data.     

中国绿色发展的空间网络结构研究

利用中国30个省份(不含西藏和港澳台地区)的2016年绿色发展指数,构建修正引力模型,采用社会网络分析方法对中国绿色发展的空间网络结构特征进行的研究发现:2008—2016年中国绿色发展水平提升显著,地区间差异在缩小但差异仍较为明显,且地区间的联系突破地理邻近效应,呈现为广泛复杂的网络关联和结构形态并趋于稳定。绿色发展空间分布呈现:以环渤海为主的“双向溢出”板块,主要体现出经济及技术外溢以及能源输入;以西南地区为主的“双向溢出”板块主要进行资源供给及接受技术外溢;以东部沿海省份为主的“主受益”板块,体现其绿色发展得益于西北及环渤海地区的资源供给,各指标水平较高且均衡,但板块外的溢出效应不明显;西北地区省份为主的“净溢出”板块,各方面发展均比较落后,主要对环渤海地区进行资源供给;陕西、河南作为资源密集型省份,其绿色发展受自身经济、产业结构等因素的限制,但因其地理位置居中,处于网络中心性最高的重要地位,与其他省份存在较广泛密切的联系,建议培育为新的绿色发展增长极;总体上,板块内部聚类明显,但仍存在板块内部分省份及板块间的互动不强,需打破行政壁垒,发挥自身优势,促进板块间的技术、人才交流及资金流动,实现绿色协同发展。     

Spatial decomposition analysis of water intensity in China

The shortage of water resources has become a burning issue constraining China's sustained development with significant differences in water intensity among regions and provinces. Quantifying the driving effect of spatial differences in the country's water intensity is very important to the dual implementation actions of water resources and intensity in each region. Spatial analysis reveals the variations among regions, identifies contributing factors, and helps us to better understand the scope for improvement compared to temporal analysis. This paper constructs a Spatial Index Decomposition Analysis (S-IDA) model based on the conventional IDA model referenced in the literature and divides China into six regions according to The 13th Five-Year Plan of Water-Saving Society Construction. We mainly examine the following four parts. First, the driving factors of the spatial difference of water intensity in the six regions are decomposed into intensity effect and structure effect. Second, we measure three industrial differences of the intensity effect and the structure effect in the six regions. Third, we decompose the drivers of the spatial differences of water intensity for provinces within the six regions into the intensity effect and the structure effect. Fourth, we select the results in 2015 to point out the key task of reducing water intensity in the six regions and in all provinces of those regions. The results underscore that each region should formulate and implement a sound water resource policy with differentiation and relevance according to actual conditions and provide a quantitative basis and support system so that regions can learn from each other about specific water-saving measures. These findings provide an insightful understanding of the spatial difference of water intensity and also a quantifiable justification for making building-specific water resources policies, which are discussed at the end of the study.     

Macroeconomic forecasting using approximate factor models with outliers

In this paper we consider estimating an approximate factor model in which candidate predictors are subject to sharp spikes such as outliers or jumps. Given that these sharp spikes are assumed to be rare, we formulate the estimation problem as a penalized least squares problem by imposing a norm penalty function on those sharp spikes. Such a formulation allows us to disentangle the sharp spikes from the common factors and estimate them simultaneously. Numerical values of the estimates can be obtained by solving a principal component analysis (PCA) problem and a one-dimensional shrinkage estimation problem iteratively. In addition, it is easy to incorporate methods for selecting the number of common factors in the iterations. We compare our method with PCA by conducting simulation experiments in order to examine their finite-sample performances. We also apply our method to the prediction of important macroeconomic indicators in the U.S., and find that it can deliver performances that are comparable to those of the PCA method.     

地方政府竞争对治理效率的影响——基于Tobit空间杜宾模型的计量分析

基于政府治理提质增效的现实需要,选取2007—2019年中国30个省区市的面板数据,运用DEA效率测度方法并构建Tobit空间杜宾模型检验地方政府竞争对治理效率的影响。研究发现：多数省份政府治理效率未达到效率前沿面,存在提升空间;本地区效率改进能够给周边地区带来正向溢出效应;政府间竞争对治理效率及溢出具有先促进后抑制的倒“U”型影响,防范政府间竞争对治理效率的抑制效应是政府未来治理的重点,其中,法制环境具有负向调节作用,环境越优越,倒“U”型曲线越为平缓,更有利于激发效率改进和溢出。进一步的异质性分析发现,在政府干预程度高和要素市场发育程度低的地区,尽管政府竞争对治理效率的倒“U”型影响不变,但对溢出的影响变为不显著。     

Cross-regional comparative study on digital finance and finance efficiency in China: The eastern and non-eastern areas

Digital finance is expected to improve the financial development of economic backward regions through its inclusive nature. Therefore, this paper selects the financial data of 30 provinces in China from 2011 to 2017 to evaluate regional finance disparities with the inclusion of digital finance, using the meta-frontier slack-based measure dynamic DEA model. The results are as follows. (1) The overall financial efficiency, input efficiency, output efficiency, and TGR in the eastern region are better than those in the non-eastern region. (2) With the inclusion of digital finance, the finance efficiency gaps in the eastern and non-eastern regions have expanded.     

An integrated BWM-LBWA-CoCoSo framework for evaluation of healthcare sectors in Eastern Europe

In this study, an integrated multi-criteria framework is developed to evaluate a healthcare sector which is one of the main infrastructures for any country. Healthcare sector plays a significant role in economic development and social sustainability of countries. To improve performance of healthcare sectors, it is essentially required to evaluate the healthcare systems based on their specific characteristics in order to resolve their performance related issues based on sustainable development principles under social aspect. For this purpose, the proposed integrated framework applies a novel hybrid weight determination model using best-worst method (BWM) and level based weight assessment (LBWA) to determine the weights of healthcare indicators and subsequently, combined compromise solution (CoCoSo) method is further applied to evaluate healthcare performances of several countries according to the pre-determined indicator weights. To show applicability of the proposed framework, a real time case study for seven countries in Eastern Europe is considered based on the data set of Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). Results show that Lithuania and Slovakia have the best healthcare systems in comparison to countries like Poland and Estonia.     

长江经济带工业绿色发展效率测度 ——基于考虑指标偏好的广义DEA模型

文章以中国长江经济带11个省市为研究对象,构建工业绿色发展指标体系,运用考虑指标偏好的广义DEA模型对长江经济带工业绿色发展效率进行测度.研究结果表明:①长江经济带工业绿色发展整体水平较好.②东中西三个地区的平均效率值差距相对较小,地区差异不明显.③从地区内部来看,东部地区内部省市效率值差异很小;中部地区内部省市效率值...     

中国区域工业化与城市化的时空耦合协调机制分析

工业化与城市化之间存在交互作用的耦合协调关系.应用耦合机制和时空协调性模型,对1996、2000和2004年中国区域工业化与城市化耦合协调发展的时空规律进行了实证分析,分析结果表明:①中国区域工业化与城市化的耦合协调度存在明显的地域差异,在地区分布与区域经济发展水平上存在很大的空间对应性.中国大部分省区处于低强度低协调的颉颃阶段,且东部大部分省区的耦合协调程度高于中西部地区,同时在空间对应上与经济发展水平有很大关系;②中国区域工业化与城市化的耦合协调发展差距在增大;③中国大部分省区工业化与城市化的耦合协调类型为工业化发展超前型.     

区域竞争力比较视野下西南五省区市的发展策略研究

选取西南五省区市为比较对象,运用多层次灰色综合评判法进行区域竞争力评价,得出了西南五省区市区域竞争力大小的灰色关联度。据此提出:四川和重庆等综合实力较强的地区应利用自身优势,加速提升区域竞争力,实现率先发展;云南、广西、贵州等落后地区应努力挖掘优势特色产业,增强自身综合实力和扩大开放,推动区域竞争力提升。     

基于多层面分析的高技能人才评价指标体系构建

针对高技能人才的特点,构建了由专业知识、技能水平和综合素质3个一级指标和受教育程度、技术等级等15个二级指标组成的评价体系,利用AHP层次分析法对各指标进行了权重的确定,指出高技能人才的技术等级、受教育程度、计算机应用能力、解决难题的能力以及同行对其的评价在所有指标中所占的比重较大。在此基础上,提出企业应采取相应措施,不断促进高技能人才的培育和发展。     

中国省级开发区的区位分布、增长历程及产业定位研究

本文利用1346个省级开发区的相关资料,对我国省级开发区的区位分布、增长历程及主导产业定位的总体情况和区域差异进行了实证分析.研究发现:近90%的地级行政区划都至少有一个省级开发区,各省经济发展水平对省级开发区数量具有显著影响;省级开发区的增长过程充满波动,有三次大幅增长时期,东中西部之间在不同时期的增长幅度差异较大,这除了受地区经济发展水平影响之外,还与国家的宏观政策有一定关系;省级开发区内部的主导产业定位较为分散,产业结构不善合理,而且开发区之间在主导产业选择上相似性和集中度较高.     

基于超效率SBM模型的中国区域全要素能源效率评价

建立了基于DEA模型的全要素能源效率评价指标体系,运用考虑非期望产出的超效率SBM模型,对我国30个省(直辖市、自治区)2007—2016年的能源效率进行了测度,将测度结果按照东部、中部、西部三个区域进行了时空差异分析,并对各区域的全要素能源效率变化趋势进行收敛性检验。结果显示:2007—2016年我国全要素能源效率整体呈现下降趋势,从三个区域的对比研究可以看出,我国区域能源效率存在明显差异,具体表现为东部能源效率最高、中部次之、西部最差,与我国区域经济发展水平的梯度相一致。通过收敛性检验可以看出2007—2016年,我国全要素能源效率呈发散趋势,即地区之间的差距在逐渐增大。     

我国31个省份贸易强省建设实证分析

运用因子分析法和分类聚合,探讨我国31个省份的贸易指标,实证分析贸易强省建设情况。得到6个指标大类:贸易规模指标、贸易前景指标、贸易贡献指标、贸易分布指标、贸易优势指标及贸易市场指标。其中,贸易规模指标对贸易强省建设的影响率最高。京、沪、粤、浙及苏等省份居于全国贸易层级的前列,其贸易能力高于其他地区。针对贸易能力不高的省份,应根据其实际情况及规划目标,从各指标大类中的各细化指标出发,补齐短板。     

Does real wage converge in China?

This study adopts flexible Fourier unit root test proposed by Enders and Lee (Oxf Bull Econ Stat 74(4):574, 2012) to explore real wage convergence in China in the process of market-oriented reform. We find that our approximation has higher power to detect U-shaped and smooth breaks than linear method if the true data generating process of relative real wage is in fact a stationary non-liner process. The empirical results show that property of stationarity of relative real wage varies across different regions. Specifically, stationarity prevails in eastern and western regions, implying the regional development strategies launched there enhance labor migration, commodity trade and thus wage convergence. In contrast, almost all provinces in northeastern and central regions show non-stationarity, indicating the strategies there are less effective in promoting wage convergence. These results have practical policy implications for China’s regional development and income equality.     

集装箱堆场出口箱堆存模型及其算法

本文提出了不同重量、不同目的港的集装箱按照一定顺序随机到达堆场的堆存模型。模型同时考虑了集装箱目的港、箱重和作业难度三个因素，这样可以保证装船时尽量少倒箱，极大地提高了装船效率。本文给出了启发式算法解决该问题。实例结果表明，按照此算法可在装船作业时倒箱次数较少的情况下产生实用的实配载图。     

A new approach to assess the performance of the Brazilian National Immunization Program (NIP)

The present study develops an alternative measure of efficiency to assess the Brazilian National Immunization Program (NIP) using Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), an output-oriented variable returns to scale (VRS) model, to combine different homogeneity indicators within a unique composite index and evaluate the socio-demographic differences among states. The new DEA index allows homogeneity indicators to be measured for various vaccines in the same model, which enables the development of a composite index for “the first year of life” immunization cycle. In Brazil 2010, the mean efficiency score for the 26 states was 0.89 (0.14 SD). Eleven states were considered efficient, and eight of them were located in regions with a high Human Development Index (HDI) and small rural population, which reinforces the concept that regional and socioeconomic differences must be considered during immunization planning. To reach the frontier of best practice, each state should have an individual and attainable goal for vaccine homogeneity.