Cointegration analysis of quarterly tourism demand by Hong Kong and Singapore for Australia

Hong Kong and Singapore are two of the most important and fastest growing markets for tourists to Australia. The purpose of this paper is to investigate movements in the long-run demand for tourist travel by these two origin countries for Australia. Some of the leading macroeconomic variables examined to explain tourism demand are incomes in Hong Kong and Singapore, tourism prices in Australia, and transportation costs and exchange rates between the two countries and Australia. Seasonally unadjusted quarterly data are used for Hong Kong for the period 1975(1)–1996(4), and for 1980(4)–1996(4) for Singapore. Several proxy variables are used for the incomes of tourists from Hong Kong and Singapore to explain quarterly tourist arrivals to Australia. The augmented Dickey-Fuller test for unit roots is examined in the univariate framework, and Johansen's maximum likelihood procedure is used to test for cointegration and to estimate the number of cointegrating vectors. Error correction models are estimated to explain quarterly tourism demand by Hong Kong and Singapore for Australia.     

Simulation Analysis of Public Debt and Fiscal Deficit in Austria – Optimal Economic Policies for the Past and the Future

The macroeconometric simulation model AMOD1 and the optimization algorithm OPTCON are used to evaluate fiscal policies for Austria since the late seventies. In particular, the question of optimal (debt stabilizing) fiscal policies for the past and for the future is analyzed within the framework of a medium-scaled simulation model. The first set of optimization experiments aims to assess optimal fiscal policies for debt stabilization for the historical period 1978–2000 while trying to maintain reasonable growth rates of approximately 2 percent of real GDP. Optimal values of the instruments and the targets are compared to empirical data for Austria. A second set of simulations calculates optimal paths for the fiscal instruments for the period 2001-2010, particularly with respect to the criteria of the Stability and Growth Pact, which is mandatory for member states of the Euro zone.     

VALUING REDUCED RISKS TO CHILDREN: THE CASE OF BICYCLE SAFETY HELMETS

The protection of children's health has recently become a mandated priority for federal policy makers. To assess many of the regulations that affect children's health, policy makers need estimates of the monetary value of reducing mortality risks to children. Although the economics literature has provided many estimates of the value of statistical life (VSL) for adult populations, it has provided none for school age children. This article studies the market for bicycle safety helmets and estimates for the first time a separate but comparable VSL for children and adults. We derive three estimates of VSL for each of three age categories (5 to 9, 10 to 14, and 20 to 59) that range from $1.1 to $4.0 million. In all cases, estimates for adults are highest, followed by estimates for the youngest children.     

Dynamic elasticities of tax revenue: evidence from the Czech Republic

Tax revenue elasticities with respect to tax bases are key parameters for the modeling of public finances. Yet the existing studies estimating these elasticities for emerging countries disregard the effects of tax reforms on tax revenue, which renders their estimates inconsistent. We introduce a framework for estimating both short- and long-run tax revenue elasticities using quarterly data adjusted for the effects of reforms. Our results suggest that the long-run elasticities in the Czech Republic are 1.4 for wage tax, 0.9 for value added tax, 1.7 for profit tax and 1 for social security contributions. The adjustment process for value added tax and social security contributions is fast, but for the remaining two categories, it is important to distinguish between the short- and long-run elasticities: the initial response of revenue to changes in the bases is weak. In the case of wage tax it takes half a year for the elasticity to surpass unity.     

教育收益率性别差异的实证分析

很多研究均发现女性的教育收益率显著高于男性。利用广西的调查数据,发现中国的教育收益率存在性别差异,女性的中等教育收益率高于男性,男性的高等教育收益率高于女性。进一步的分析表明,工资的性别歧视、就业的性别歧视以及中等教育效益的性别差异是导致中国教育收益率存在以上性别差异的主要原因。     

On the duration of empires

Why did some empires endure for centuries whereas others quickly fade? To approach this question, I focus on geography, namely the extent to which an empire abutted a sea. Seas could have allowed for greater opportunities for integration as well as trade with external polities. I consider historical empires from antiquity until 1922 and examine whether those empires with larger coastlines relative to their areas endured longer. Using various estimation methodologies and instrumenting for the length of the coastline, I find support that empires that were more connected to seas lasted longer. Further analysis suggests that the potential for seaways to lead to greater integration provides a stronger explanation than the potential for seas to provide a defensive barrier.     

India’s petroleum demand: estimations and projections

Energy security is crucial for sustaining high economic growth in India. This article empirically estimates India’s long- and short-term demand relations for crude oil, diesel and petrol (gasoline) using the ARDL and ECM cointegration procedures and then uses them to project demand for these products up to 2025 under various scenarios of GDP growth and oil prices. Our projections show that over 2012 to 2025, demand is likely to increase by about 74% for crude oil, 117% for diesel and 136% for petrol – the annual growth rates being about 4.3% for crude oil, 6.1% for diesel and 6.8% for petrol (gasoline). This article suggests that India needs to (1) take measures to improve efficiency in the use of petroleum products; (2) try to enhance supplies such as through production sharing agreements by Indian oil companies with other countries and (3) increase the use of nuclear, hydro, solar and other alternative energy sources, as Western European countries have done.     

Using the travel cost method to value visits and stigma in connection with ARV adherence in Uganda

This article uses the travel cost method to value both client visits to collect antiretroviral therapy (ARV) and stigma, which prevents ARV adherence. Using a representative sample for Uganda initiated specifically for this study, we found a willingness to pay (WTP) valuation for visits made in the range of US$14–US$17 and a willingness to accept (WTA) valuation of US$25 for visits missed. The valuations for stigma based on a novel measure of stigma using a new estimation method were close to the valuations for visits. These valuations can be used to estimate the benefits to carry out cost–benefit analyses (CBAs) of interventions aimed at increasing ARV coverage and adherence.     

Portfolio management of the free banks of Illinois: An examination of historical allegations

We are grateful to Andrew Economopoulos and to Charles Kahn for comments; to an anonymous referee for several helpful suggestions; and to the Research Board of the University of Illinois for providing support.     

区域发展规划中建设用地需求量预测研究

以大连花园口经济区及周边区域为评价区,以土地可持续利用理论为依据,应用土地生态适宜性评价方法,在GIS技术（MapInfo7.0）的支持下,基于公里网格,选择地形地貌、土地利用现状两大因子为评价指标,对大连花园口经济区及周边建设用地适宜性进行综合评价,旨在为合理有效地安排土地资源的用途提供科学依据。评价结果表明：大连花园口经济区及周边最适宜、较适宜、基本适宜、勉强适宜建设用地面积分别为35 145.60、13 651.97、19 001.93、7 540.04hm2,分别占评价区总面积的46.65%、18.12%、25.22%、10.01%。通过对大连花园口经济区及周边建设用地适宜性评价,从而推测出该区域发展规划中对建设用地的需求量。     

区域工业旅游产品营销策略——以郴州市工业旅游为例

以郴州市为例,论证了区域工业旅游产品营销应具备的三个条件:主体条件、客体条件、媒介条件;分析了当前我国区域工业旅游产品营销特点;在此基础上提出了战略对策:充分发挥政府在工业旅游产品营销中的主导作用、明确工业旅游产品营销市场的战略定位、实施产品组合营销策略、以“装”引人,推出特色产品、营造令人愉悦的旅游氛围,加大宣传推销力度、确定合理价格水平、重视工业旅游经济效益增长点———工业旅游商品的营销。     

Socioeconomic adjustments and choice experiment benefit function transfer: Evaluating the common wisdom

It is often argued that attribute adjustments made possible within choice experiments have the potential to improve benefit transfer accuracy. These transfers, however, often omit socioeconomic adjustments; this reflects a limited presence of socioeconomic covariates in broader choice experiments. The lack of correspondence between common guidance that socioeconomic adjustments should be applied and simultaneous arguments for the advantages of choice experiment transfers leads to ambiguity for transfer practice. This paper contrasts the change in transfer performance resulting from an ability to adjust for policy attributes with that resulting from an ability to adjust for socioeconomic attributes. Results are illustrated for the case of agricultural land preservation. The goal is to provide evidence regarding the tradeoff faced by practitioners who seek to use choice experiments for benefit transfer but lack the ability to adjust for socioeconomic attributes.     

The economic costs to fisheries because of marine sand mining in Ongjin Korea: Concepts, methods, and illustrative results

We illustrate a methodology for estimating the damages to commercial fisheries from entrainment and from temporary loss of seafloor habitat productivity because of marine sand mining. A Beverton-Holt, year-class model is used to estimate illustrative short-term, long-term, and indirect (food web) effects from the inception of mining through the time to recovery of the injured resource stocks. A Base Case analysis evaluates hypothetical mining for a 4 km² mining site with biological recovery of the mined area beginning seven months after mining ceases and the bottom excavation fills in. Sensitivity analyses also are used to illustrate damages for alternative recovery paths and for 20 hypothetical mining sites for one year of mining and for recurring mining for 5 and for 10 years. Important qualifications and directions for further research are outlined.     

The New Urbanism Versus the Market Process

The new urbanism argues that land-use planning should be used to create higher-density development and to promote alternatives to the use of personal automobiles for transportation. The concerns of the new urbanist movement are shown to be misplaced, and the goals of the new urbanism are shown to be in conflict with market incentives, making them difficult to implement in any event. A better policy for more efficient land use would be for governments to plan more effectively for their own infrastructure development while allowing the development of privately-owned land to be guided by market forces.     

Climate change driven shifts in the extent and location of areas suitable for export banana production

Species distribution modeling (SDM) is used to map areas predicted to be suitable for commercial banana production in Central and northwestern South America. Using the downscaled climate projections for 2060 from seven leading global climate models we then predict the geographical shifts in areas suitable for banana production. We repeat this process for conventional and organic banana production. Approximately half of the existing conventional plantations included in the analysis are located in areas predicted to become unsuitable for banana production by 2060. The overall extent of areas suitable for conventional banana cultivation is predicted to decrease by 19%, but all countries are predicted to maintain some suitable areas. The extent of areas suitable for organic banana cultivation is predicted to nearly double due primarily to climatic drying. Several countries (e.g., Colombia and Honduras) are predicted to experience large net decreases in the extent of areas suitable for banana cultivation. Some countries (e.g., Mexico) are predicted to experience large net increases in the extent of suitable areas. The shifts in the location of areas that will be suitable for banana cultivation are predicted to occur mainly within areas outside of protected areas and that are already under agricultural production.     

数据分析在出版业务中的应用

编辑管理系统不仅对选题申报、确定出版时间与印数起着重要的作用,而且对于责任编辑审视图书销量,回顾在书稿内容质量的提高方面所做的工作,也具有至关重要的作用。以此作为依据,向策划编辑提出相关业务领域的合理化建议,如选题方向的确立、作者的遴选等,互助并进,为推动出版单位提升销售额,增强图书的社会效益和经济效益而共同努力,切实履行编辑岗位的职责。     

A model to optimize investments in health technologies,quality of care and research

Funds for health technologies compete with funds for implementing health technologies as well as funds for conducting research to reduce uncertainty around treatment and implementation cost-effectiveness. No study has yet shown how to allocate a combined budget for health technologies, implementation and research. The purpose of this work was to present an allocation model with the goal to maximize health. Based on a constrained optimization formulation, we show that considering opportunities to invest in implementation and research may justify considerable disinvestment in health technologies. This may reduce the willingness to pay for new health technologies significantly.     

RATIONALE FOR DISSENT: THE CASE OF FOMC MEMBERS

This paper investigates monetary policymakers' rationale for dissent to test for a hypothesized difference in policy preferences between bank presidents and members of the Board of Governors. The paper analyzes the cited reasons for dissent, the identity of the dissenter, and uses multiple regression to make inferences regarding the differences.
Examining the identity of dissenters and the given reasons for dissent yields four conclusions, (i) A broad base of bank presidents dissent for tighter policy because they want to control inflation by keeping monetary aggregates within targeted ranges. (ii) On the other hand, board members' dissent for tighter policy is dominated by one man–Henry Wallich—who apparently was disturbed by the inflationary outbreak during the late 1970s and early 1980s. (Hi) Several board members dissent for looser policy to stimulate the real economy, (iv) But only a few bank presidents, primarily from the Northeast, dissent for looser policy with the same objective.
Regression analysis supports the assertion that bank presidents dissenting for tighter policy do so to keep monetary aggregates on target in order to control inflation. The analysis confirms Wallich's focus on inflation during the late 1970s and early 1980s. It also allows for the possibility that the various board members dissenting for looser policy either have an inherent preference for looser policy or have diverse reasons for dissent.     

A Spatial Microsimulation Approach to Estimating the Total Number and Economic Value of Site Visits in Travel Cost Modelling

This paper presents a simulation-based modelling approach for simultaneously estimating the total number and aggregate value of recreation-related visits to a small-scale community forest in the West of Ireland. Spatially-referenced simulated individuals from a spatial microsimulation model for Ireland (SMILE) who reside within the geographic extent of the market for recreation at the forest are identified using GIS techniques. A travel cost model, adjusted for truncation and endogenous stratification, is estimated for a sample of visitors to the site and transferred across each individual in the simulated population. The SMILE model and GIS-based network analysis are used to derive the appropriate values for the explanatory variables in the transfer. Each simulated individual’s latent demand for visits to the site is predicted and summed, in order to derive aggregate visits and amenity value estimates. The paper makes two principal contributions. First, it sets out a new approach for modelling the geographic extent of the market for recreation using survey data on reported travel distances and GIS techniques. Second, it develops a new simulation-based modelling approach for predicting total site visits at non-priced open-access recreation sites.     

Does reputation enhance response rates?

Declining response rates and the potential for deterioration in the quality of survey data require reconsideration of the role of incentives to participate in interviews. This article argues that the strategies associated with linking public goods to private goods to establish reputation effects for the private goods involved can also be used to enhance confidence in the objectives of the request for an interview. In this literature, an assured reputation is established for those selling products by offering to contribute some of the proceeds of a sale to charity. The results of our field experiment indicate that combining charity with financial incentives appears to increase confidence in survey objectives for those familiar with the interview process.