Evaluating the prospective effects of alternative regulatory policies on the investment behaviour and environmental performance of a newly liberalised electricity industry in Taiwan

The research explores the potential effects of alternative regulatory policies for electricity market liberalisation on the investment behaviour and environmental performance of the electricity industry in Taiwan. The results provide insights into how the electricity market might evolve under the proposed reform scheme and other possible scenarios. This paper begins by reviewing the characteristics of the industry and how it has developed so far, and follows by studying the planned liberalisation agenda and the main purposes of the regulatory policies. Whether the liberalised electricity market will develop in a desirable direction is investigated by analysing investors’ aspirations for the market and their possible reactions to regulatory policies. The paper focuses on the investment decisions of the generation sector and concludes with assessments of the implications for security of supply, fuel diversity, electricity price and the environment.     

An investment planning model for the electricity sector in Nigeria

In this study the methodology of mixed integer programming is used to deal with investment resource allocation problems that involve economies of scale in the Nigerial economic planning environment. The specific application is to long-term investment decisions in the government-operated electric power supply industry (NEPA). The investment planning problem involves determining the optimal generating plant/transmission mix from among a set of fossil fuel and conventional hydro plants which will meet the demand for electricity in Nigeria over the next three decades at minimum cost. Economies of scale in plant construction makes the investment cost function to be non-linear. However the non-linearity is approximated by a fixed charge function. Alternative price assumptions are made about locally found fuel resources (oil, gas, coal and liguite) to calculate the energy cost of fossil fuel plants. Different investment strategies are then evaluated in terms of the present values of the cost of supplying electricity to meet the required demand.     

Enhanced network effects and stochastic modelling in generation expansion planning: Insights from an insular power system

Electricity generation capacity expansion is driven by both economic and socio-political realities. Policy makers determine public infrastructural decisions, such as climate and renewable targets, and transmission infrastructure, and the optimal generation capacity expansion follows. Policy makers therefore require planning models that can determine the optimal generation capacity mix in the long run under various scenarios, including policy choices. This work presents a planning model based on linearised alternating current optimal power flow which determines optimal generation capacity expansion and operation, in a least-cost manner, given global and local technical constraints, as well as policy decisions. We apply the model to a test case of the island of Ireland, which has two weakly interconnected systems, high renewable generation targets and low storage and interconnection. We determine the optimal generation expansion and operation out to 2030 considering the effects of increased multi-area interconnection, existing fossil fuel generation phase-out and increased renewable generation targets and carbon prices. Our results find that costs and emissions are driven primarily by the decommissioning of old inefficient generation units. High renewable targets, on the other hand, render increased carbon prices relatively ineffective in reducing system emissions. Furthermore, high renewable generation targets crowd out low-carbon power generation options such as carbon capture and storage (CCS). The strategic north-south interconnection has little effect on renewable energy source installations required to achieve renewable power generation targets but does impact on security of supply and the congestion level across the island.     

低碳生态控制性详细规划的成本效益分析

公共政策手段必然有其成本,低碳生态城市规划政策也不例外。政策手段带来的成本与效益需要有科学性及客观的分析,才会帮助政府在制定政策及建设项目时提高社会整体经济效率,达到优化经济资源之目的。本文提出需要对低碳城市规划和建设手段进行成本效益分析的必要性,要从科学客观角度建立低碳城市成本效益理论和方法,应用评估低碳城市规划建设政策和投资决定。并针对我国城乡规划体制内具有法定效力的控制性详细规划管理手段,提出在实施低碳生态城市控制指标时要考虑产生的经济成本与效益,以近期完成的石家庄正定新区低碳生态控制性详细规划方案解释。     

Forecasting electricity prices with expert,linear, and nonlinear models

This paper compares several models for forecasting regional hourly day-ahead electricity prices, while accounting for fundamental drivers. Forecasts of demand, in-feed from renewable energy sources, fossil fuel prices, and physical flows are all included in linear and nonlinear specifications, ranging in the class of ARFIMA-GARCH models—hence including parsimonious autoregressive specifications (known as expert-type models). The results support the adoption of a simple structure that is able to adapt to market conditions. Indeed, we include forecasted demand, wind and solar power, actual generation from hydro, biomass, and waste, weighted imports, and traditional fossil fuels. The inclusion of these exogenous regressors, in both the conditional mean and variance equations, outperforms in point and, especially, in density forecasting when the superior set of models is considered. Indeed, using the model confidence set and considering northern Italian prices, predictions indicate the strong predictive power of regressors, in particular in an expert model augmented for GARCH-type time-varying volatility. Finally, we find that using professional and more timely predictions of consumption and renewable energy sources improves the forecast accuracy of electricity prices more than using predictions publicly available to researchers.     

Evolving Electric Utility Regulatory Policy

A bstract . Current electric utility pricing methods understate the marginal social casts of electricity. Electricity prices are set to cover the utility's average cost rather than the higher marginal social cost. This mispricing hides from consumers the true cost their consumption imposes on society and, thereby, encourages them to ignore efficient conservation opportunities. Additionally, the conservation market suffers from a number of imperfections such as barriers to the acquisition of information, high upfront capital costs and the lack of conservation equipment availability. The electricity and conservation multimarket equilibrium is not achieved. The result is that society overconsumes (excess demand) electricity, overinvests in electric generating plants and underinvests (excess supply) in conservation resources. The large, yet uncertain, level of foregone conservation investment offers new opportunities for regulators and electric utility managers to improve economic efficiency with regulatory and planning policies that appropriately encourage the cost effective use of conservation resources. In the absence of the most efficient policy, marginal social cost pricing, integrated resource planning (IRP) is being adopted as a potential second-best regulatory policy and utility resource planning framework to improve energy efficiency. IRP uses mathematical optimization methods to search among many alternate resource portfolios of electricity creating and saving technologies. These methods identify the mix that best meets society's needs with the least social cost , where the social external costs and benefits of generating plant and conservation, respectively, are considered. Such a goal requires the choice of a resource portfolio that optimizes a complex objective function. As a result, the solution offers a resource action plan for electric utilities that may be Pareto-improving.     

Forecasting electricity prices using bid data

Market liberalization and the expansion of variable renewable energy sources in power systems have made the dynamics of electricity prices more uncertain, leading them to show high volatility with sudden, unexpected price spikes. Thus, developing more accurate price modeling and forecasting techniques is a challenge for all market participants and regulatory authorities. This paper proposes a forecasting approach based on using auction data to fit supply and demand electricity curves. More specifically, we fit linear (LinX-Model) and logistic (LogX-Model) curves to historical sale and purchase bidding data from the Iberian electricity market to estimate structural parameters from 2015 to 2019. Then we use time series models on structural parameters to predict day-ahead prices. Our results provide a solid framework for forecasting electricity prices by capturing the structural characteristics of markets.     

JUSTIFYING A POLICY MIX FOR POLLUTION CONTROL: A REVIEW OF ECONOMIC LITERATURE

Abstract This paper provides a review of economic studies analysing the use of multiple policies – a so‐called policy mix – to cope with single pollution problems. To guide and structure the review, an analytical framework is developed and applied. The framework integrates transaction costs into the analysis of pollution problems and policies to overcome them. Moreover, it understands a pollution externality not only as a market failure but more generally as the failure of private governance structures. Based on this insight, two rationales for using a policy mix are identified. First, a policy mix may help to correct for multiple reinforcing failures of private governance structures, such as pollution externalities and technological spillovers. Second, a policy mix can be employed if the implementation of single first‐best policies brings about high transaction costs, e.g. when marginal pollution damages are heterogeneous or polluters are unlikely to comply with the policy. For each rationale, the relevant literature is presented. Based on the review, avenues for future research are identified.     

Energy Policy: The Return of the Regulatory State

Energy is regulated by the state in most countries. The United Kingdom had a period, around the turn of the present century, when traditional regulation was reduced and the energy sector was exposed to market forces, but there has since been reversion to the regulatory norm. The recent history of energy policy, especially as it concerns electricity generation, is examined and the stated reasons for having such a policy are discussed: for example, enhancing security of supply, avoiding the effects of fossil fuel price increases and combating future climate change and its effects. These reasons are found to lack substance and a case is made for moving away from centralised action, returning to a much more competitive market with less government intervention.     

Appraising world energy prospects

The authors begin by outlining a multi-scenario technique for coping with future uncertainty in assessments of the business environment for energy planning. The discussion then leads to a quantification of world energy demand under two exploratory scenarios, whose results are compared with published forecasts. Analysis of the components of demand highlights the importance of the Third World. After a review of the world's fossil fuel resources, the likely effective availability of oil and other energy sources (including nuclear power and the renewables) is set against the scenario levels of energy demand. The paper ends with a summary of the implications for action in the field of energy.     

管理精细化价值最大化——以管理精细化促发电企业实现价值最大化

发电企业作为技术密集型和资本密集型重点行业,在其不断发展壮大的过程中,逐步形成了一套科学、完整的管理体系和实践经验。但随着电力市场竞争加剧,发电企业原有的粗放式经营管理体系越来越难以满足市场竞争的需求。本文通过对精细化管理理念的引入,就精细化管理相对与发电企业的意义,及发电企业中实施精细化管理的方法进行了探讨,从而为发电企业实施精细化管理提供借鉴。     

Policy changes in the Swiss electricity market: Analysis of likely market responses

The Swiss electricity market is still a public monopoly. Switzerland do not intend to be part of the single European electricity market, but given its strategic geographical position—Switzerland is in the middle of the core area of the European Union, Swiss power producers maintain electricity exchanges (imports and exports) with neighbouring countries. These exchanges represent an important source of revenue for Swiss utilities.

Switzerland is currently facing a period of fundamental policy changes. Even though the market has not been legally liberalised, emergent liberalisation is taking place. Furthermore, nuclear dismantling has been debated since the early 1980s. People have not yet accepted the dismantling proposition, so there is actually no law banning the construction of new nuclear plants, but given the current attitude of the population and the politicians any new nuclear investments are most unlikely.

The aim of this paper is to illustrate likely market responses to different policy changes in the Swiss electricity market, such as nuclear phase-out and changes in international exchanges policies that may arise as a consequence of the emergent liberalisation that is taking place in this market.

This article presents a conceptualisation model that helps understanding the logic of the dynamic behaviour of the Swiss electricity market, and illustrates the rationale of politicians and decision makers involved in the market planning process, as well as the possible consequences of the implementation of different policies. The purpose is not to forecast or quantify market response, but to identify and understand possible scenarios for market behaviour.     

A new political economy of oil

Oil carries external costs which increase with depletion. In conventional visions for the next 20 years, oil supply will exceed demand in the premium market for transport fuel; competition between producers will drive capacity expansion (though with a risk of investment cycles); and natural gas will limit growth in oil demand and price. The politics of the climate, of transport, and of power supply, now rank with OPEC as key political factors affecting oil. Energy security has become more important to exporters than importers. Producers are threatened by the possibility that economically available oil will be left in the ground.     

电网企业电力购销控制评价研究

电网是电力市场的基础和载体。电网企业通过输电、配电、售电的垂直一体化的电力物流配送体系,实现电力的使用价值。开展电力购销控制评价,有利于发现电力购销中存在的管理漏洞,提出管理意见及建议,达到完善购销控制、防范经营风险、提高服务水平的目的。文中就电网企业电力购销控制评价的原则、指标、方法等进行研究,希望能对电网企业内部控制评价的研究提供一定的借鉴与参考。     

The Strategic Significance of Negative Externalities

Negative externalities have competitive relevance in a market when they have selective impacts – as, for example, when a product in use imposes greater costs on consumers of rival products than on other people. Because managers have discretion over aspects of product design that affect external costs, the externality in such cases may be viewed as a strategic variable. This paper presents evidence of the existence of competitively relevant negative externalities. I introduce a metric for the externality's competitive effect, the external cost elasticity of demand, which I estimate econometrically using data from the motor vehicle industry. Managerial implications are considered. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Macro-logistics and externality cost trends in South Africa – underscoring the sustainability imperative

The challenges facing the logistics industry in a fossil fuel-challenged global economy are highlighted by transportation's rising contribution to logistics costs, as evidenced in the USA's and South Africa's logistics costs time series, the two longest-running such series available globally. The anticipated persistence of rising, volatile oil prices and mounting pressure to account for externalities will exacerbate the increase in transport costs (TCs). The results of South Africa's externality cost model show that transport externalities add an additional 18% to already high TCs. In the South African context, the equally largest contributors to freight transport externalities are accidents involving road freight vehicles and road freight emissions. The visibility of these costs is the first step towards internalisation and illustrates the desirability of a fundamental shift in the structure of the South African freight transport industry through the introduction of long-distance intermodal solutions.     

加强电网的经济调度探析

电网经济调度就是电网的经济运行,它是在基于经济调度的理论基础上制定的各个电厂之间负荷分配的工作方案,目的是保持电网能源消耗降低到最少和减少电网运行费用,使经济效益最大化,并且还要保持电网的正常运行和用电量需求。     

初探电网低碳发展评价标准的形成之路

电力行业作为碳排放的大户,承担着巨大的减排压力和低碳化改革的压力,同时也是推动低碳经济发展的主力军。电网作为连接发电环节与输电环节的枢纽,在实现电力低碳化发展中同样具有极为重要的作用。因此,可提出“电网低碳化评价标准”的概念来描述电网低碳发展水平的统一化程度。本文正是基于这一观点,从发、输、用电侧对电力系统的低碳情况进行剖析,并最终提出有关电网低碳评价标准的原则、思路与框架。     

Regulation of road accident externalities when insurance companies have market power

Accident externalities that individual drivers impose on one another via their presence on the road are among the most important external costs of road transport. We study the regulation of these externalities when insurance companies have market power. Some of the results we derive have close resemblance to the earlier literature on externality regulation with market power in aviation and private roads, but there are important differences, too. Using analytical models, we compare the first-best public welfare-maximizing outcome with a private profit-maximizing monopoly, and oligopoly. We find that insurance companies will internalize some of the externalities, depending on their degree of market power. We derive optimal insurance premiums, and regular parametric taxes as well as “manipulable” ones that make the companies set socially optimal premiums. The latter take into account that the firm tries to exploit knowledge of the tax rule applied by the government. Finally, we also study the taxation of road users rather than that of firms.     

供电企业中电能计量技术的重要作用

随着我国经济的不断发展,电的使用量对于社会生产和生活有着十分重要的作用,这些年来,电力部门对电网建设的投入也在不断加大。