A multiobjective optimization model for project selection with probabilistic considerations

When faced with limited resources, project managers must determine which projects to fund at what levels from a pool of potential ones. This problem of project selection is inherently multiobjective since various factors, such as the available budget, the chance of success, and the efficient allocation of the project team, must be considered simultaneously. The uncertainty of the data at the time decisions are made further complicates project selection. In this paper, a multiobjective, integer-constrained optimization model with competing objectives for project selection is formulated using probability distributions to describe costs. The objectives correspond to important project criteria, such as: rank (value), managerial labor needed, and average cost. The subjective rank is determined via the Analytic Hierarchy Process. The model is applied to a data set from a US government agency that involves 84 separate projects. The results indicate improved budgetary efficiency compared to the actual project selection, thus supporting use of the model for public sector project selection. The model is unique since it integrates multiobjective optimization, Monte Carlo simulation, and the Analytic Hierarchy Process.     

Impact assessment based sectoral balancing in public R&D project portfolio selection

Government funding agencies spend significant amounts of R&D funds through funding programs. While allocating funds among sectors or scientific disciplines, the Decision Maker (DM) wants to maximize the total impact by supporting R&D activities in those sectors with higher scientific, social and economic return. On the other hand, the DM wants to balance the funding budget over sectors or disciplines. In this study, we incorporate the results of “sectoral impact assessments” into the public R&D project portfolio selection (RDPPS) problem. We develop a two-stage model. In the first stage, we make sectoral budget allocation decisions to maximize the total impact of the budget while ensuring a relative balance among sectors. In the second stage, we maximize the total score of supported projects under allocated sectoral budgets. We illustrate the proposed approach on an example problem. We show the value of the proposed approach by comparing our results with alternative policy options.     

Portfolio selection methodology for a nuclear project

It is difficult to evaluate complex, publicly sensitive nuclear project proposals. Scientists, subject matter experts, politicians, and citizens often differ on scope, budget, time, and quality priorities. There are numerous qualitative factors and quantitative variables. Experts could widely disagree on criteria or neglect to discriminate between seemingly identical alternatives. An ineffective portfolio selection method could lead to safety problems, budget overruns, or outright project failures. This case study develops and examines a mixed‐method, integrated qualitative and quantitative portfolio selection model, applied to a “tritium extraction facility” project concept.     

A multiple criteria methodology for priority based portfolio selection

This paper presents a new methodology combining multiple criteria sorting or ranking methods with a project portfolio selection procedure. The multicriteria method permits the comparison of projects in terms of their priority based on qualitative and quantitative criteria. Then, a feasible set of projects, i.e. a portfolio, is selected according to the priority defined by the multiple criteria method and satisfying a set of resources and logical constraints. The proposed portfolio selection methodology is called Priority Based Portfolio Selection (PBPS) and can be applied in different contexts. We present an application in the urban planning domain where our approach allows us to select a set of urban projects based on their priority, budgetary constraints, and urban policy requirements. Given the increasing interest of historical cities to reuse their cultural heritage, we applied and tested our methodology in this context. In particular, we show how the methodology can support the prioritization of the interventions on buildings with some historical value in the historic city center of Naples (Italy), taking into account several points of view.     

Application and project portfolio valuation using enterprise architecture and business requirements modelling

This article describes an architecture-based approach to IT valuation. This approach offers organisations an instrument to valuate their application and project portfolios and to make well-balanced decisions about IT investments. The value of a software application is assessed in terms of its contribution to a selection of business goals. Based on such assessments, the value of different applications can be compared, and requirements for innovation, development, maintenance and phasing out can be identified. IT projects are proposed to realise the requirements. The value of each project is assessed in terms of the value it adds to one or more applications. This value can be obtained by relating the ‘as-is’ application portfolio to the ‘to-be’ portfolio that is being proposed by the project portfolio. In this way, projects can be ranked according to their added value, given a certain selection of business goals. The approach uses ArchiMate to model the relationship between software applications, business processes, services and products. In addition, two language extensions are used to model the relationship of these elements to business goals and requirements and to projects and project portfolios. The approach is illustrated using the portfolio method of Bedell and has been implemented in BiZZdesign Architect.     

A conceptual framework for tackling knowable unknown unknowns in project management

Understanding and dealing with the unknown is a major challenge in project management. An extensive body of knowledge—theory and technique—exists on the “known unknowns,” i.e., uncertainties which can be described probabilistically and addressed through the conventional techniques of risk management. Although some recent studies have addressed projects where the existence of unknown unknowns (unk unks) is readily apparent or may be assumed given the type of project—e.g., new product development or new process implementation—very little work has been reported with respect to projects in general on how a project manager might assess its vulnerability to unk unks. In this paper, we present a conceptual framework to deal with (i.e., recognize and reduce) knowable unk unks in project management. The framework is supported by insights from a variety of theories, case analyses, and experiences. In this framework, we first present a model of the key factors—relating to both project design and behavioral issues—that increase the likelihood of unk unks and a set of propositions linking these factors to unk unks. We then present a set of design and behavioral approaches that project managers could adopt to reduce knowable unk unks. Our framework fills a gap in the project management literature and makes a significant practical contribution: it helps project managers diagnose a project to recognize and reduce the likelihood of unk unks and thus deal more effectively with the otherwise unrecognized risks and opportunities.     

对加强工程造价管理的几点认识

当前,市场竞争日趋激烈,文章从三个方面阐述了施工企业如何加强工程造价管理工作。     

A project portfolio risk‐opportunity identification framework

This article introduces a framework to identify risks and opportunities during portfolio risk management that helps to decrease the uncertainty of achieving the strategic goals of the organization. The final output of the framework is a portfolio risk‐opportunity register, which highlights the potential events that could impact the achievement of the goals. An illustrative example of how risk‐opportunity identification can be conducted within this framework is also exposed. In spite of being theoretical in nature, the model contributes to the risk management domain applied specifically to project portfolio management, opening the possibility of further research for its verification.     

建设项目选址的规划论证

区域重大建设项目选址涉及到区域社会、经济、环境等各个方面,其选址的合理与否关系到区域社会经济的持续、快速、健康发展.科学的分析论证可加强建设项目的可操作性,也可使其规划管理依据更加充分、决策更加科学合理.基于此认识,提出了建设项目选址符合城市规划论证的主要内容,并以330千伏西安西南郊变电站选址为例进行了详细的说明和论述.     

房地产开发企业多项目管理研究综述

本文针对国内外研究学者在多项目管理领域的最新成果进行了概括性论述,分析了房地产开发企业多项目管理产生的背景、存在的问题以及解决方法,对多项目管理的研究具有较高的参考价值。     

Project success and project team management: Evidence from capital projects in the process industries

Efficient project execution is a key business objective in many domains and particularly so for capital projects in the process industries, but existing project management research gives little direction about how project team factors influence three important capital project outcomes: cost, schedule, and operability. After an extensive cross-disciplinary review of the general team and project management literatures, we constructed and tested a theoretically based, five-dimensional model of organizational context, project team design, project team leadership, project team processes, and project outcome factors. We examined the model by means of an empirical study of 56 newly completed capital projects executed by 15 Fortune 500 companies in the process industries. The results indicate the value of disaggregating project outcomes for research purposes. Different bundles of project team factors were found to drive project cost, schedule, and operability. Project team efficacy, cross-functional project teams, autonomous project team structure, and virtual office usage were the strongest predictors of project cost effectiveness. Continuity of project leadership, cross-functional project teams, and project manager incentives were the strongest predictors of project construction schedule. In contrast, clear project goals and an office design to facilitate effective communication were the main predictors of plant operability. Implications of these findings for researchers and project practitioners are discussed. One major practical implication of our findings is that project managers need to clearly focus and prioritize their goals for each project so they can adopt the appropriate bundles of project team practices that will facilitate their goal achievement.     

Project portfolio control and portfolio management performance in different contexts

This article investigates the nature and relationship of project portfolio control techniques and portfolio management performance, and how this relationship is moderated by situational idiosyncrasies of internal and external dynamics, industries, governance types, and geographic location. A worldwide questionnaire with 242 responses was used, of which 136 high‐performing responses were filtered out for quantitative analysis of best practices. Three portfolio control factors were identified: portfolio selection, portfolio reporting, and decision‐making style. Two measures for portfolio management performance were identified: achievement of desired portfolio results and achievement of project and program purpose. The results indicate that different portfolio control mechanisms are associated with different performance measures. A contingency model was developed, including moderating effects by contextual variables.     

Fairness reactions to personnel selection techniques in Singapore and the United States

This study investigates reactions to personnel selection techniques from the perspectives of working adults in the United States and Singapore, and provides a comparison of the two samples. Differences in the cultural values of the two countries are used to generate hypotheses. Working adults in Singapore (N = 158) and the United States (N = 108) rated the process favourability of eleven selection procedures and then indicated the bases for their reactions on seven procedural dimensions. Implications for selection in Singapore, the United States and in international contexts are discussed.     

An empirical assessment of IT project selection and evaluation methods in state government

This study uses a survey of U.S. state government information technology (IT) project management practitioners to investigate the utilization of IT project selection and evaluation methodologies—financial and qualitative—and to assess the empirical relationship between the chosen methods and several measures of perceived project success. The analysis presents evidence that financial project selection and evaluation methodologies appear to be important in obtaining better control over project costs.     

An applied stochastic model of the quality–quantity trade-off in the public health care sector

It is a striking feature of the many of the developing country public service sectors that the sectors in question often overproduce the quantity of services but underproduce the quality. This feature, which is exemplified in this paper, is rooted in a wide spectrum of economic and sociological factors ranging from the economic and sociological profile of the service receiving people to the asymmetric density of service-receiving population across their regions. This feature, we conjecture, is a source of a considerable degree of suboptimality in some of the developing countries. If our conjecture is correct, correcting such suboptimalities is likely to yield significant welfare improvements that could help speed up the process of development in the underdeveloped regions of the world. To analyze the supoopimalites in question, we will first develop a concept (and a model) of optimal quality in the public service sector, which indicates the level of quality that maximizes expected public satisfaction subject to available resources. Resources are used in an efficient manner to produce the service in question. The concept and the model in the paper make a needed contribution to the quality discourse by presenting a way of determining the quality improvements (or adjustments) necessary to achieve optimum in the public service sector. The paper presents an application (a case study) of this new concept in the public healthcare sector in Turkey, and explores the differences between the actual and optimal quality in the sector in question. It turns out that there is a considerable difference between the actual and optimal levels of quality (as well as those of quantity) in the Turkish public healthcare sector in an overpopulated city (Istanbul), indicating a significant overproduction of quantity and underproduction of quality. Thus, to achieve the optimal levels, the sector should increase quality and reduce quantity by a considerable margin. The quantified differences (gaps) between actual and optimal levels point out a considerable room for welfare improvement. Optimum-seeking adjustments closing these gaps could be shown to lead to considerable satisfaction and welfare gains, the measurement of which is worthy of future research.     

浅谈配电工程中变压器的选择及安装

进入21世纪以来,我国电力系统的建设工作进入了一个全新的时期。由于我国现有的配电系统具有覆盖范围广、运行负荷大等特点,同时受到运行环境以及各种自然、人为因素的影响,发生电气故障的现象极为普遍,并且可能导致配电系统在运行中出现较大的安全隐患。因此,在配电工程的建设中,一定要注意对于变压器的选择与安装,这样才能保证配电系统的安全、稳定、高效运行。     

论我国现代企业财务管理的目标选择

文章主要阐述了我国目前学术界存在的几种现代企业财务管理的目标,以及对这些财务管理目标的初步评价,举例比较了美国、德国、日本的财务管理目标的模式,最后指出我国财务管理目标的现实选择。     

Local development and business creation. The role of local development workers in project management

The participation of social inclusion workers in project management is to a large extent aimed at setting up businesses and mainly entails working with businessmen and women and entrepreneurs. Policies formulated to this end involve four lines of action: improving infrastructure; managing local businesses; supporting and managing the creation of micro-businesses and small and medium-sized enterprises; and carrying out socio-economic studies which aid the economic and social development of a particular local community. This study includes an analysis of the characteristics of the service provided by local development workers with regard to the development areas concerned, the nature of the work carried out and the groups involved, the characteristics of the service offered to entrepreneurs and groups of entrepreneurs and the characteristics of the projects managed. Field work was carried out during the 2004 which entailed the use of a questionnaire intended for all local development workers included in our own directory.