产业关联视角下的碳关税征收对我国产业经济的影响

最终需求的生产诱发系数和依存度系数揭示,我国高耗能产业部门生产对出口依赖程度较高;碳关税征收在减少高耗能产品出口的同时,由于其产业影响力较大,会对其它产业部门的生产产生较大的波及。高耗能产业部门的感应度系数表明,当各个部门的最终需求变化时,其生产将受到较大的影响。碳关税对高耗能产品的征收最终会通过产业间的关联波及各个产业部门,进而全面影响我国产业经济的发展。     

Corruption and wage inequality?

Does corruption aggravate wage-inequality? We try to answer this question in terms of a general equilibrium model where both skilled and unskilled workers participate in corruption. Corruption in our model diverts resources from the productive sectors. Factor intensities within the productive sectors and between production and corruption activities determine the wage impact of corruption. Lower degree of corruption may increase wage-inequality although the size of the corruption sector definitely contracts.     

对外开放门槛与服务业的外溢效应——基于省际面板数据的实证检验

本文利用面板门槛回归模型,以对外开放程度作为门槛变量,探讨在不同发展阶段服务业发展水平同国民经济发展效率之间的相关性.结果发现,提高服务业就业比重能够产生稳健的外溢效用,其背后的渠道包括适应居民消费结构升级、提供就业岗位、与工农业形成互动等方面.在服务业发挥外溢效应过程中,对外开放起着显著的调节作用,而且发展对外贸易和利用外资对服务业发挥外溢效应的调节功能存在显著差别.     

The unbalanced growth hypothesis and the role of the state: The case of China's state-owned enterprises

Albert Hirschman's unbalanced growth hypothesis suggests that a developing economy can promote economic growth by initially investing in industries with high backward and forward linkages. In the case of Chinese economic policy today, one application would be the continued presence of the state in high-linkage sectors and the strategic withdrawal of the state from low-linkage sectors. The evidence shows that while the degree of linkage plays an important role in generating economic growth in China, province-specific withdrawal strategies for the state sector have no effect on economic growth.     

The impact of technological opportunity on the dynamics of trade performance

The paper examines statistically whether the degree to which countries are specialised in and/or increasingly move into sectors with above average levels of technological opportunity has any impact on growth in aggregate market shares of exports. A novelty of the paper is that it applies structural decomposition (SD) analysis not only on trade statistics, but also on US patent statistics. Nineteen countries and 17 manufacturing sectors for the period 1965–1988 are considered. A number of variables, in addition to the effects from the SD analysis, are included as explanatory variables. In this context, it is shown that there is a positive relationship between trade performance and the individual country’s ability to move into technological sectors offering above average technological opportunity.     

Access to credit and comparative advantage

Access to external funds is crucial for the entry and expansion of entrepreneurial firms and the sectors they predominantly arise in. This paper reports three important results. First, comparative advantage is shaped by factor endowments as well as fundamental determinants of corporate finance. In particular, a larger equity ratio of firms and tough governance standards relax financing constraints, lead to entry of firms at the lower bound of the productivity distribution and create an endogenous comparative advantage in sectors where entrepreneurial firms are clustered. Second, a small degree of protection in the constrained sector can raise a country's welfare by relaxing financing constraints if terms‐of‐trade effects are small. Third, a small degree of protection of the financially dependent industry in a financially underdeveloped country might even raise world welfare.     

Input–output research in structural equivalence: Extracting paths and similarities

The systematic study of the way in which intersectoral transactions are organized is an interesting source of information about the pattern of existing economic relationships in one country that allows comparison of its structural features with those of another economy of reference. A new tool in the input–output context that allows us to reveal the functioning economic structure by determining the structural equivalent sectoral groups is proposed. The aim is to outline a new approach to clustering sectors based on similarities between sector linkages profiles. The obtained set of structurally equivalent sectors defines a reduced model which provides additional information about the main paths of influence and the degree of complexity. The structural equivalent sectors of Spain in 2000 and 2005 are determined. The Spanish economy has evolved to a more connected and oriented-service economy.     

福建省流通产业关联及波及效应的实证研究

在界定流通产业范围的基础上,对国民经济行业分类体系进行了调整,将流通产业从第三产业中分离出来作为国民经济的第四部门;在此基础上,对福建省流通产业与其国民经济各部门的产业关联及其波及效应进行了实证研究,分析了福建省流通产业的依存度、直接关联效应、完全需要系数、影响力系数和感应度系数及生产诱发系数。认为流通产业与国民经济其他部门都有较强的关联,能有效带动福建省国民经济各部门的发展,有望成为福建省的主导产业。     

Data deepening and nonbalanced economic growth

As a newly emerging factor, data can promote economic growth by driving technological progress, and nonbalanced growth between digital industries and nondigital industries has been notable in recent years. This paper provides a novel growth model with two sectors that differ in the degree of data deepening and the factor structure of the production function. In the model, data in one sector is the by-product of economic activities not only in its sector, but also in the other sector. More importantly, data utilization within and across sectors can spur new ideas and promote technological innovation. The model indicates that increases in the stock of data in the two sectors have opposite effects on the allocation of skilled labor between the two sectors. The skill premium (the wage of skilled labor relative to the wage of unskilled labor) decreases with an increase in the fraction of skilled labor employed in the data-extensive sector. With credible parameter values, model calibration shows that faster growth of output occurs in the more data-intensive sector and the high skill premium persists in the long run.     

Margins,Concentration and Oligopolistic Interdependence*

In this paper we examine the relationship between margins, elasticities of demand and the Hirschman-Herfindahl index of concentration for Australian manufacturing. Our main aim is to estimate the degree of collusion in various manufacturing sectors in the years 1968-69, 1972-73 and 1977-78. There appear to be marked differences in the apparent degree of collusion between industries. It is argued that once sub-optimization is allowed the Cowling-Waterson model will yield biased estimates of the degree of collusion.     

户籍制度扭曲及放松对经济的影响:理论与实证

户籍制度是我国劳动力流动的主要障碍.那么,当前我国的户籍扭曲程度几何?户籍制度放松对经济又会有怎样的影响?对这些问题的回答将有助于政府评估户籍制度改革的空间和经济效益.文章在Hansen和Prescott(2002)的两部门劳动力流动模型基础上,将工人分为农业和非农户口,引入户籍扭曲因子,构建两部门两类工人的户籍扭曲模型;然后,使用1984?2013年宏观经济数据度量户籍扭曲程度,并对2013年我国户籍制度逐渐放松过程中经济变量的变化进行模拟;最后,文章建立了包含"农业与非农"和"本地与外地"户籍差异的省份异质性户籍扭曲模型.研究表明:(1)经济和户籍制度改革的不同步导致了1984?2013年我国户籍扭曲程度呈现倒"U"形变化,且相较于韩国尚有较大的改善空间;(2)以韩国为参照,若2013年我国户籍制度完全放开,经济达到均衡时,农业部门和非农部门的就业人数将分别下降58.83%和上升26.92%,工资率将分别上升19.44%和下降6.77%,社会增加值将增长15.33%,这说明社会经济效率将得到提升,贫富差距将缩小.文章丰富和完善了户籍扭曲的理论模型,从减少劳动力流动摩擦的视角为政府制定相关政策提供了参考.     

企业能力还是企业社会资本——企业捐赠的影响因素

企业是中国慈善事业的主体。以往的研究多从经济学视角探寻企业能力对企业捐赠行为的影响,忽视非经济因素影响。本研究在企业能力基础上,加入社会网络、民间聚集及信任等衡量企业社会资本的指标,考察企业能力与企业社会资本对企业捐赠行为的影响。研究发现,企业能力对企业捐赠行为影响是存在的,同时企业社会网络规模、企业与经济部门的网络密度、企业民间聚集程度、企业对经济部门及非盈利部门的信任水平等都影响企业捐赠行为。企业能力是捐赠行为的基础,社会资本是捐赠行为的催化剂。     

Distributional Effects of Tariff Reduction in the Transforming Chinese Economy

A general equilibrium trade model is constructed to study the issue of income redistribution between the state sector and the private sector induced by a tariff reduction in the transforming Chinese economy. The analysis is conducted in the presence of price control, tariff protection, and the coexistence of state and private sectors. It is shown that the way in which income levels of the two sectors are affected by the tariff reduction depends on (i) the way in which the price of nontradables is affected, (ii) the degree of privatization, and (iii) the extent of price control.     

生产性服务业对制造业就业的影响研究——以上海为例

文章基于上海制造业27个细分行业1997-2009年的面板数据,就生产性服务业对上海制造业就业的影响进行了实证研究.结果显示,整体而言,生产性服务业对上海制造业就业具有显著的积极影响.但是,生产性服务业对上海制造业就业的影响程度与制造业和生产性服务业的异质性相联系.具体而言,信息传输、计算机服务和软件业对三种要素密集型行业就业的提升都有显著影响;科学研究技术服务业的发展对资本和技术密集型行业的影响有积极作用,但对于劳动密集型行业的影响则不明显;而交通运输仓储争邮政业、金融业和房地产业对三种要素密集型制造业就业影响的替代效应高于促进效应.最后,指出了发展现代生产性服务业对上海制造业就业提升的重要意义和相关政策建议.     

Induced innovation: an empirical test

A method is developed to empirically test the hypothesis of induced innovation as it has been specified and used in the theoretical literature. A strong and a weak version of the hypothesis is tested using sectorial data from the USA, Canada, Germany, France and the UK. The strong version tests for the exact dependency of the relation between the change in factor-productivities on the one hand and relative prices and actual factor-productivities on the other hand. The weak version only tests for the direction of this dependency. In all countries the weak hypothesis is accepted in all sectors except in ‘electricity, gas, and water’. The strong hypothesis is accepted in about half of all sectors. It is rejected only in sectors, in which the degree to which progress is intentional is low.     

Input substitution in manufacturing for three LDCs: translog estimates and policy implications

Demand and subsititution elasticities from a translog cost model are estimated for the manufacturing sectors of India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. Conventional formulae for the standard errors of the estimated elasticities are checked by a bootstrap experiment, and their validity is confirmed for the moderate-sized samples of India and Pakistan. The elasticity estimates indicate a high degree of substitutability among capital, labour, and energy resources in manufacturing sectors of these countries. The result yields important policy implications for employment expansion through changing relative resource prices and the ability of these three economies to adjust to energy price shocks without serious impairment to economic growth.     

Emigration,Finite Changes and Wage Inequality

This article shows that large outmigration of labor leads to finite changes in the structure of production at source. We argue that sectors may vanish as they cannot pay higher wages consequent to emigration. We also inquire whether emigration of one type of labor hurts the other non‐emigrating type in this setup. Various situations when real incomes of the emigrating and the non‐emigrating types do not move together are demonstrated. This generalizes some of the existing results in the literature. In particular, emigration can lead to a drastic change in the degree of inequality depending on which of the sectors survive in the postemigration regime.     

Openness, centralized wage bargaining, and inflation

This paper develops a model of an open economy containing both sectors in which wages are market-determined and sectors with wage-setting arrangements. A portion of the latter group of sectors coordinate their wages, taking into account that their collective actions influence the equilibrium inflation outcome in an environment in which the central bank engages in discretionary monetary policymaking. Key predictions forthcoming from this model are (1) increased centralization of wage setting initially causes inflation to increase at low degrees of wage centralization but then, as wage centralization increases, results in an inflation drop-off; (2) a greater degree of centralized wage setting reduces the inflation-restraining effect of greater central bank independence; and (3) increased openness is more likely to reduce inflation in nations with less centralized wage bargaining. Analysis of data for seventeen nations for the period 1970–1999 provides generally robust empirical support for all three of these predictions.     

The global business revolution, the cascade effect, and the challenge for firms from developing countries

The global business revolution since the 1980s has witnessedan unprecedented degree of industrial consolidation and concentrationof business power at a global level. Firms with powerful, globallyrecognised technologies and/or brands constitute the ‘systemsintegrators’ at the apex of extended supply chains. Thispaper examines the supply chains in four different sectors:aerospace, telecommunications, automobiles and beverages. Itfinds that these sectors have striking similarities in the wayin which the core systems integrators have stimulated industrialconcentration across the whole supply chain. This ‘cascadeeffect’ has profound implications for firms from developingcountries in catching up at the firm level.     

Uniform tariffs in general equilibrium —A simple model

In a production structure exhibiting both Heckscher-Ohlin and specific-factor features, uniform tariffs may fail to protect many import-competing sectors. Hence, for some minimum degree of protection, the feasible tariff structure tends to be asymmetric.I am indebted to two referees of this Journal for helpful comments. The usual disclaimer applies.