Housing, taxation and retirement provision

This paper considers the tax treatment of housing and the issue of savings for retirement in the context of a simplified model that still allows key aspects of the household context to be realistically represented. A model is developed in which both housing and financial assets can be used as vehicles for household saving. Individuals face perfect capital markets and choose between owner-occupied and rented accommodations. For the model developed, it is shown that the tax advantage of owner-occupied housing is not fully removed even if imputed rents are subject to income taxation. However, deferred income taxation for both housing and savings in the form of financial assets would result in an equal treatment of tenants and owner-occupiers.     

基于“城房指数”的中国城市新建商品住房市场有效性研究

本文采用2006年1月至2009年8月我国10个大中城市“城房指数”数据,检验了新建商品住宅市场的有效性,结果显示市场无效是较为普遍的现象。进一步的研究说明,特定的市场参与者可以在无效市场中通过积极预测价格而获得更好的回报。但对一般投资者而言,由于目前调整持有房地产资产比例的投资行为将产生极高的交易费用,获得这一套利机会并不现实。如果未来我国资本市场上出现房地产衍生证券,该问题有可能得到解决,市场有效性也会得到提高。     

Housing market dynamics: Evidence of mean reversion and downward rigidity

House prices often exhibit serial correlation and mean reversion. Using two large panel datasets, this paper analyzes the price dynamics in two significantly different types of markets, cyclical (or volatile) and non-cyclical (or tame), by applying an autoregressive mean reversion (ARMR) model. Our results show that cyclical markets have larger AR coefficients than non-cyclical markets. As a result, house prices in cyclical markets tend to have larger price cycles. We also find that the upward periods have larger AR coefficients than the downward periods. This demonstrates that house prices are likely to overshoot the equilibrium in appreciating markets while experiencing downward rigidity during periods of decline. The model developed in this paper can produce a forecast with rich house price dynamics across markets. Our results can also be used to determine how house prices in overvalued markets will ultimately adjust.     

Why do real estate brokers continue to discriminate? Evidence from the 2000 Housing Discrimination Study

This study examines racial and ethnic discrimination in discrete choices by real estate brokers using national audit data from the 2000 Housing Discrimination Study. It uses a fixed-effects logit model to estimate the probability that discrimination occurs and to study the causes of discrimination. The data make it possible to control for auditors' actual demographic and socioeconomic characteristics and characteristics assigned for the purposes of the audit. The study finds that discrimination remains strong but has declined in both the scope and incidence since 1989. The estimations also identify both brokers' prejudice and white customers' prejudice as causes of discrimination.     

异质性对新建商品住房市场交易速度的影响——来自北京市的微观证据

基于异方差修正的久期似然模型,利用北京市新建商品住房市场大样本数据,实证检验了城市住房异质性特征对住房市场交易风险率的影响效果及其稳健性.实证结果表明,地铁及通勤设施、教育资源、医疗责源和休闲购物等因素对新建商品住房交易速度的影响逐次减弱,且上述影响在大户型住房、预售住房以及小规模项目住房中更加显著.结论可以为市场参与者调整住房交易决策提供依据,也可以为政府制定住房市场和保障性住房相关政策提供参考.     

Housing supply price elasticities revisited: Evidence from international, national, local and company data

This paper re-examines one of the key parameters in housing economics – the price elasticity of housing supply. In the international literature, there is little agreement on its value or even on the appropriate methodology for its measurement. The paper argues that different spatial scales capture different aspects of the problem and, therefore, there is merit from comparing results at international, national, local and firm level. Using standardised models, there is evidence that the responsiveness of housing supply to market conditions is lower in Britain than in the US or Australia. However, supply is more responsive to the change in house prices than their level. With exceptions, most past research on supply in Britain concentrates on the national or regional dimensions. The paper finds that there are also insights to be obtained from examining local and firm level data. Local estimation across the Thames Gateway shows the importance of planning constraints on supply elasticities, but historical patterns of land use and geography are also important. Firm level data indicate that supply elasticities are greater for large firms than for small firms.     

城市居民住房支付能力研究——基于2000-2008我国10城市的经验数据

根据我国10个城市的中房指数推算各城市2000年-2008年期间的房价,利用国家城调队的城镇居民家庭收入和消费数据,计算各城市的房价收入比、住房可支付性指数、月供收入比,提出月供消费结余作为辅助判断指标,在此基础上分析各城市居民的住房支付能力,结果发现所有样本城市的房价收入比普遍较高,其中南京、武汉、深圳、成都和重庆五城市居民的住房支付能力比其他5个城市强,最后提出了相应的政策建议.     

Home safety,accessibility, and elderly health: Evidence from falls

This article presents estimates of the impact of home safety and accessibility features on the prevention of serious, non-fatal falls for elderly widowed individuals. As these features are not randomly assigned across homes, we develop an instrumental variable (IV) strategy that relies on the differential decline in the health and functional status of spouses to identify impacts. Specifically, we use the deceased spouse’s functional status when alive, as measured by limits to Activities of Daily Living (ADLs), as an IV for the presence of home safety and accessibility features for the surviving spouse in the years after widowhood, and then estimate the effect of these features on the likelihood of a serious fall for the widow using rich longitudinal data from the Health and Retirement Study. The presence of such features reduces the likelihood of a fall requiring medical treatment by 20 percentage points, a substantial effect. However, falls are not the type of health shock that is a main driver of housing tenure transitions among the elderly. Although somewhat speculative, cost–benefit estimates suggest that investments in home safety for the elderly may generate in the short run as much as a dollar-for-dollar reduction in medical expenditures.     

大城市保障性住房空间布局的社会问题与治理途径

本文研究了北京、上海、南京等五大城市保障性住房空间布局特征,指出大城市保障性住房普遍存在空间选址偏僻、大规模集中建设、配套设施不完善等现实问题.在分析以上问题形成原因的基础上,认为大城市保障性住房集中建设在偏远郊区可能导致社会隔离与排斥加剧、出现城市贫民区与贫困文化、贫困的代际延续与社会风险加剧等一系列社会问题.因此建...     

经济适用住房停建政策影响人群实证研究——以广州为例

采用定量分析与定性分析相结合的研究方法,以广州市经济适用住房停建政策的影响人群为研究对象,对已获得经济适用住房准购证但未购房以及已申请住房保障但未获批两类家庭进行问卷调查和入户访谈,并采用SPSS软件对相关数据进行深度挖掘,分析了两类家庭的经济状况与居住现状,经济适用住房停建政策对两类家庭的影响及其未来的住房保障诉求。在此基础上,对经济适用住房停建政策的稳妥实施提出相关建议,包括做好停建政策后续配套工作,妥善处理已获得准购证家庭的购房需求;优化住房保障申请程序,加强保障性住房分配和后续管理等。最后,针对困难群众对住房保障产品多元化的诉求,对创新产权式住房保障方式进行了探索。     

城市新就业职工住房保障问题实证研究——基于合肥市新就业职工的调查

调查表明,50％多的新就业职工住房困难.由于收入较低,新就业职工住房支付能力严重不足,30％多的新就业职工家庭缺乏租房支付能力;超过70％的新就业职工家庭缺乏购房支付能力.所以,要尽快将新就业职工纳入住房保障范围.首先,提高新就业职工收入水平,遏制住房价格过快上涨;其次,多渠道筹集住房保障资金;第三,积极创新相关配套政策,完善公共租赁住房准入和退出机制;第四,适时推出限价商品住房,利用优惠信贷政策,提高新就业职工住房支付能力.     

基於巴塞尔协议的中国上市金融业实证研究

本研究探讨中国上市金融业资产风险与管制资本的关系。论文以1993年至2002年间上市的金融业为样本。实证结果发现:(1)控制了流动性风险、规模、总体经济等因素后,资本比率与资产风险间成显著正相关,破产理论或管制理论适用于解释样本期间内中国上市金融业风险与资本运作间的关系。(2)1997年参照巴塞尔协议实施相关法规办法以后,金融业资产风险上升,显示此项管制并未达成降低风险的效果。(3)管制实施以后,为维持净资产收益率,金融机构的资产风险反而较管制前为高。(4)核心资本是金融业吸收损失的主要来源。     

谈国外及香港地区保障性住房对我国的启示

自1995年提出安居工程之后,保障性住房建设工作日益引起各地的重视,但因时间短暂、缺乏经验,我国急需要借助国外在保障性住房建设方面的成功经验,来完善我国住房体系.本文通过英国、美国、我国香港三个地区的对比分析,分别就保障住房供应体系与社会发展相适应、政府在住房建设与发展中的作用和定位、保障性住房的立法保障体系、针对中低...     

政府保障房供求补贴的不同效果

解决中低收入人群的基本住房问题是实现社会公平的基本国策之一。为了有效地实施保障性安居工程,通过构建数学模型研究在财政补贴率相同的条件下,住房消费补贴与住房供给补贴的成交价格、成交量与社会福利情况,可以发现这两者之间存在较大的差别,前者的成交价格、成交量和社会福利都高于后者,但前者比后者的财政补贴额更多。如果提高财政补贴率,那么前者成交价格会不断提高,而后者成交价格会不断降低,成交量都会呈现扩大趋势。成交价格、成交量和社会福利不但与财政补贴率及其补贴方式有关,也与住房的需求弹性和供给弹性有关。研究结论的政策意义在于,如果在政府财力有限、住房价格上涨压力较大的条件下,应当采用住房供给补贴;如果在政府财力相对宽松、住房价格上涨压力相对较小、依靠住房拉动经济增长的压力较大的条件下,则应当采用住房消费补贴,同时它还能实现公平与效率兼顾的目的。无论是采用住房消费补贴还是住房供给补贴,都应当增大供给弹性,减小需求弹性。     

The heterogeneous impact of taxation on economic development: New insights from a panel cointegration approach

In this paper, we study the role of taxation on long-run income performance. In the theoretical part of the study, we develop a stylized model based on Barro (1990), in which income taxation has two contradictory roles in the standard Solow (1956) setup: on the one hand, taxation appropriates resources that would otherwise be used for physical capital accumulation, and on the other, it is the source of government spending, which is used to support private production. In the empirical part of the study, the impact of consumption tax, personal income tax, corporate profit tax and property tax on income is estimated using the common correlated effects (CCE) panel cointegration approach, which allows for cross-sectional dependencies and provides both panel- and country-specific results. The panel findings for 30 OECD countries for the period of 1995–2016 indicate that only consumption tax has a statistically significant negative effect on long-run income. However, because the type and sign of the tax coefficients are heterogeneous for the country-specific results, we conclude that taxation has heterogeneous effects on income.     

“邻里”视角下单位大院与居住小区的空间比较

通过对北京市多个单位大院与居住小区的实地调研、访谈及文献研读,将单位大院与居住小区置于邻里理论视角下,阐述了单位大院与居住小区对邻里思想理论与实践的继承和发展;比较研究了单位大院与居住小区在规模与边界、用地布局、要素构成、道路系统和社区感方面的特点.基于邻里的空间性内涵,探讨了单位大院在封闭性与开放性、混合性与单一性、异质性与同质性等方面对城市规划与住区设计的理论与实践启示.     

Subtle discrimination in the rental housing market: Evidence from e-mail correspondence with landlords

We find that landlords practice subtle discrimination in the rental housing market through the use of language associated with describing and viewing a unit, inviting further correspondence, making a formal greeting, and using polite language when replying to e-mail inquiries from a white name more often than to an African American name, they also send longer e-mails and respond quicker to white names.     

我国四大城市住宅价格与租金的关系研究

近20年,我国城市住宅价格经历了大幅下跌与上涨,而同期租金逐年下降,房价与租金之间的关系令人关注。本文利用1993年第二季度至2010年第一季度的数据进行实证分析,结果表明北京、上海、广州和深圳的租金指数和房价指数之间不存在协整关系,说明住宅市场价格与租金不存在长期均衡关系,房价严重脱离了租金这一基本面的影响,不再遵循现值理论模型所揭示的两者之间的运行趋势,表明房价泡沫在长期积聚。为了预防市场泡沫破灭对经济体造成的严重冲击,政府应该严格监察与调控房地产市场。     

论住房价格多维性理论及其实践价值

住房价格多维性是为解决房价调控中遇到的难题而提出的新的理论探索。它是从多角度对住房价格多元化特征及其运行规律的全面概括和综合,具有极为丰富的内涵。其实践价值在于：为完善房价调控政策提供理论指导,为构建住房价格体系明晰方向,为强化住房价格监管体系找到理论依据,为健全住房保障体系奠定扎实基础。     

住房保障视角下的房地产税改革策略研究

房地产税改革不仅仅关系到中央和地方间的财事权分配、普通居民的税收负担,关系到房地产市场的稳定发展,也会对我国城镇住房保障体系的建设和创新形成制度约束.本文介绍了房地产税收政策支持住房保障体系建设的国际经验,运用经济学理论,分析了在我国当前的住房保障制度中,房地产税改革对不同类型保障性住房建设和运营的影响.在此基础上,提...