The impact of debt finance on aggregate demand

The crowding-out hypothesis has received extensive theoretical treatment but little supporting empirical examination. This paper presents the results of several empirical tests of the crowding-out hypothesis. These tests examine the impact of debt finance on aggregate demand, employment, inflation, and the unemployment rate. The results indicate that debt-financed fiscal initiatives crowd out a substantial amount of private spending, but do have a net expansionary effect on economic activity.     

Currency devaluations,aggregate demand,and debt dynamics in economies with foreign currency liabilities

The article uses a post Kaleckian model to analyze how currency devaluations affect aggregate demand and capital accumulation in an economy with foreign currency liabilities in the short-run. In benchmark post Kaleckian open economy models, currency devaluations have two effects. First, they change international price competitiveness and thus affect net exports. Second, devaluations change income distribution and thereby affect consumption and investment demand. The overall effect on aggregate demand and investment is ambiguous and depends on parameter values. Existing models, however, disregard balance sheet effects that arise from foreign currency-denominated external debt. The article develops a novel post Kaleckian open economy model that introduces foreign currency-denominated external debt and balance sheet effects to examine the demand-effects of devaluations. Furthermore, the article models the dynamics of external and domestic corporate debt. It discusses how an economy may end up in a vicious cycle of foreign-currency indebtedness and derives the conditions under which indebtedness becomes stable or unstable. It shows that the existence of foreign currency-denominated debt means that contractionary devaluations are more likely, and that foreign interest rate hikes, and high illiquidity and risk premia compromise debt sustainability. Devaluations only stabilize debt ratios if they succeed in boosting domestic capital accumulation.     

Functional income distribution and aggregate demand in the Euro area

An increase in the wage share has contradictory effects on thesubaggregates of aggregate demand. Private consumption expendituresought to increase because wage incomes typically are associatedwith higher consumption propensities than capital incomes. Investmentexpenditures ought to be negatively affected because investmentwill positively depend on profits. Net exports will be negativelyaffected because an increase in the wage share corresponds toan increase in unit labour costs and thus a loss in competitiveness.Therefore, theoretically, aggregate demand can be either wage-ledor profit-led depending on how these effects add up. The resultswill crucially depend on how open the economy is internationally.The paper estimates a post-Kaleckian macro model incorporatingthese effects for the Euro area and finds that the Euro areais presently in a wage-led demand regime. Implications for wagepolicies are discussed.     

Financial institutions and the Cambridge theory of distribution

This paper shows how the Cambridge theory of distribution isaffected by the nature of financial intermediation. When creditmarkets are akin to loanable funds markets in which lenderstransfer resources to borrowers, the Cambridge theory holdsand steady-state income distribution is independent of workers'saving behaviour. However, when credit markets embody endogenouslygenerated bank money, the Cambridge theory does not hold. Financialinstitutions and endogenous money therefore matter for long-runsteady-state outcomes, just as they do for short-run macroeconomicoutcomes.     

Patinkin,the Cowles Commission,and the theory of unemployment and aggregate supply

The paper provides an account of Don Patinkin's long-time search for an explanation of the notions of an aggregate demand constraint and unemployment under the assumption of a perfectly competitive goods market. It is argued that Patinkin's quest is reflected on the development of the concept of an aggregate supply function in the goods market. Patinkin's interpretation of aggregate supply and unemployment is compared to similar ideas put forward by Jacob Marschak, Trygve Haavelmo and Lawrence Klein, his former colleagues at the Cowles Commission in Chicago.     

A positive theory of government debt

A government that cannot commit to future policy choices faces a trade-off that explains the level of debt. On the one hand, there is an incentive to increase debt and delay taxation, so as to reduce current distortions. On the other hand, inflating current prices lowers the real value of nominal debt and so there is a motive to reduce it now. The size of long-run debt will depend on the interaction of these two opposing incentives. The critical determinant is the willingness of households to substitute away from goods being taxed by inflation. Numerical simulations show that the model matches some qualitative and quantitative properties of U.S. policy variables, including the fact that wars are frequently financed with a mix of instruments. The theory interprets the unusual post-World War II inflation and fast liquidation of accumulated debt as being due to higher long-run debt and expenditure in the period leading up to the war.     

A reformulation of the theory of demand by compensated demand functions

We present a formal approach to consumer demand by compensated demand functions. In accordance with the integrability theory or with the theory of revealed preference, we do not require the existence of a utility function, but we do assume certain hypotheses concerning functions describing rational behavior. In view of their properties, these functions can be interpreted as compensated demand functions. According to traditional neoclassical consumer theory, Shephard's lemma and the symmetry and negative semidefiniteness of the Slutsky-Hicks matrix can be shown. We shall also see that a convex, continuous, and monotonic preference ordering, which is representable by income compensation functions, can be introduced. It can also be shown that the existence of a compensated equilibrium can be derived within this approach by compensated demand functions. In order to obtain the existence of a compensated equilibrium under less stringent conditions we finally generalize the axioms assuming that a compensated demand correspondence is given.     

Some international evidence on the stability of aggregate import demand function

This paper empirically analyses the stability of the aggregate import demand function for G7 countries. The standard cointegration test and a test developed by Gregory and Hansen are performed. The results of standard cointegration tests suggest that there is no stable cointegrating relation between real import, real GDP and relative import price for all G7 countries. The cointegrating relation is empirically supported for France and Germany if structural change for cointegrating vector is explicitly taken into consideration. The cointegrating relation is empirically rejected for Canada, Italy, Japan, the UK and the USA. Thus, the stimulation of domestic business conditions will not necessarily link the quantity of imports for these five countries.     

Fiscal policy,government debt,and economic growth in the Kaleckian model of growth and distribution

This article presents the Kaleckian model of growth and distribution that sets a budget deficit ratio as an indicator of fiscal policy and examines the short- and long-run effects of an increase in budget deficits and a rise in income tax rates on the economy. The key short-run outcomes are as follows. First, expanded budget deficits have a positive effect on the rate of capacity utilization. Second, the tax rate for wage income does not affect the rate of capacity utilization, whereas the tax rate for capital income has a favorable impact on it. This result implies that raising the tax rate for capital income can be an important policy instrument for stimulating the economy. Third, we find that the economy exhibits a wage-led aggregate demand in the short run. The main long-run results are as follows. First, the effect of expanded budget deficits on the growth rate is ambiguous, since a higher debt burden negatively influences the rate of capacity utilization and hence economic growth, despite the increase in demand caused by government borrowing. A higher budget deficit ratio thus raises the growth rate only if a certain condition is satisfied. Second, the tax rate for capital income has a positive impact on the growth rate. Third, the economy shows a wage-led growth in the long run.     

Limited asset markets participation, monetary policy and (inverted) aggregate demand logic

This paper incorporates limited asset markets participation in dynamic general equilibrium and develops a simple analytical framework for monetary policy analysis. Aggregate dynamics and stability properties of an otherwise standard business cycle model depend nonlinearly on the degree of asset market participation. While ‘moderate’ participation rates strengthen the role of monetary policy, low enough participation causes an inversion of results dictated by conventional wisdom. The slope of the ‘IS’ curve changes sign, the ‘Taylor principle’ is inverted, optimal welfare-maximizing discretionary monetary policy requires a passive policy rule and the effects and propagation of shocks are changed. However, a targeting rule implementing optimal policy under commitment delivers equilibrium determinacy regardless of the degree of asset market participation. Our results may justify Fed's behavior during the ‘Great Inflation’ period.     

A finite-life private-information theory of unsecured consumer debt

We present a theory of unsecured consumer debt that does not rely on utility costs of default or on enforcement mechanisms that arise in repeated-interaction settings. The theory is based on private information about a person's type and on a person's incentive to signal his type to entities other than creditors. Specifically, debtors signal their low-risk status to insurers by avoiding default in credit markets. The signal is credible because in equilibrium people who repay are more likely to be the low-risk type and so receive better insurance terms. We explore two different mechanisms through which repayment behavior in the credit market can be positively correlated with low-risk status in the insurance market. Our theory is motivated in part by some facts regarding the role of credit scores in consumer credit and auto insurance markets.     

On the disaggregation of excess demand functions when prices and aggregate income vary independently

Under the assumption that prices and aggregate income can vary independently and that the income distribution scheme is known and homogeneous of degree 1 in prices and aggregate income, I raise the question of the restrictions on aggregate excess demand behavior implied by the postulate of rationality of individual agents. If the number of agents is at least as high as the number of commodities, aggregate excess demand need not satisfy, at a point, any restrictions other than homogeneity of degree 0 and Walras' law. Furthermore, if the number of agents, m, is less than the number of commodities, l, aggregate excess demand can be locally arbitrary when projected on an m-dimensional subspace of the commodity space.     

Investment and employment with unlimited labor: The role of aggregate demand

While the rate of growth of ouput has been rapid in many LDC's in the post-World War II period, the rate of growth of employment has been disappointing. This paper argues that the reason may lie in a lack of aggregate effective demand. It is pointed out that the main works in the field (such as those of Arthur Lewis and Dale Jorgenson) basically just assumed there could be no shortage of aggregate demand. A one-sector model, fitted to Malaysiandata, is used to quantify the argument.     

The theory of mixed demand functions

The properties of Samuelson's mixed demand functions, which express demand as a function of a mixed set of prices and quantities, are derived. By analyzing compensated (or substitution) effects and uncompensated effects, the relationships between mixed demand functions and conditional (or rationed) demands are examined. This provides insights on the behavioral implications of consumer theory for alternative demand specifications.     

Keynes's theory of liquidity preference and his debt management and monetary policies

This paper seeks to bolster the view that Keynes was a monetaryeconomist concerned primarily with monetary and not fiscal policy.His most fundamental policy conclusion for national economieswas that the authorities could control the long-term rate ofinterest and should do so to promote investment, growth andemployment. Keynes's theory of liquidity preference is presentedas a theory of money as a store of value that leads to thisfundamental policy conclusion. The theory is then applied toexplain the debt management, monetary and international financialpolicies that were adopted in World War II.