Trend forecasting for stability in supply chains

This paper revisits the use of trend forecasting to determine ordering policy in supply chains by viewing it as a part of the control process for making the supply responsive to demand. Trend forecasting is often used to assess demand — a tracked variable in the control context, which drives supply — a tracking variable. Used in this way, it is often observed to increase instability creating the so-called bullwhip effect. Trend is used on the other hand with reliability to increase stability in controller control, but with the difference that a trend of a tracking variable is used to drive correction. While both processes involve use of trend to determine policies for achieving reliable performance, the outcomes of the former are variable while those of the later can create improvement in control with certainty. The similarities and differences between the two processes are discussed and guidelines developed for applying trend forecasting to enhance stability in supply chains.     

21世纪零售商业发展方向是连锁商业

中国零售市场面临新的时机、新的形势、新的任务,也面临新的挑战.零售业发展趋势问题直接关系到市场的稳定与繁荣,关系到我们的生存和发展.     

Global value chains and inward foreign direct investment in the 2000s

In this paper, we make use of recent data published by the World Input‐Output Database to: (i) provide evidence on trade in value added of the major Organization for Economic Co‐operation and Development (OECD) member countries and major emerging economies (designated by OE country group), namely by measuring the degree of participation in global value chains (GVCs) at the country and sectoral levels; and (ii) estimate whether the GVC participation of OE countries has positively influenced foreign direct investment (FDI) inward stocks in the 2000s. The pooled regression model estimated shows that the country′s degree of GVC participation has contributed positively for bilateral FDI inward stocks, after controlling for other possible FDI determinants.     

Horseshoes, global supply chains, and an emerging Chinese threat: Creating remedies one idea at a time

The horseshoe shape offers a model from which the complex relationships currently linking most Chinese and United States supply chain partners can be productively visualized. Wielded metaphorically, the horseshoe also illustrates how a momentous global trend may be rising within many Chinese-American supply chains, and why that trend might impose serious threats against United States economic interests for years to come. Because the trend exists independent of almost all domestic firms’ potential responses, only rarely can an associated domestic threat be eliminated within a particular United States/Chinese supply chain. Most United States firms possess a critical capability that could diminish the force of the emerging Chinese threat: the ability to manage and execute key supply chain functions more creatively. As the horseshoe illustrates, many domestic firms may soon be compelled to become more creative. To address this need, a supply chain creativity matrix model is developed in this article. The model demonstrates how domestic supply chain firms can stimulate and identify superior ideas amongst their managerial and subordinate ranks, therefore expanding the firm's creative efficiency in the strategic execution of key supply chain functions. Those firms should be better able to defend themselves against these emerging Chinese threats.     

Dynamic supernetworks for the integration of social networks and supply chains with electronic commerce: modeling and analysis of buyer–seller relationships with computations

In this paper, we develop a dynamic supernetwork framework for the modeling and analysis of supply chains with electronic commerce that also includes the role that relationships play. Manufacturers are assumed to produce a homogeneous product and to sell it either through physical or electronic links to retailers and/or directly to consumers through electronic links. Retailers, in turn, can sell the product through physical links to consumers. Increasing relationship levels in our framework are assumed to reduce transaction costs as well as risk and to have some additional value for both sellers and buyers. Establishing those relationship levels incurs some costs that have to be borne by the decision-makers in the supernetwork, which is multilevel in structure and consists of the supply chain and the social network. The decision-makers, who are located at distinct tiers in the supernetwork, try to optimize their objective functions and are faced with multiple criteria including relationship-related ones and weight them according to their preferences. We establish the optimality conditions for the manufacturers, retailers, and consumers, derive the equilibrium conditions, and provide the variational inequality formulation. We then present the projected dynamical system, which describes the disequilibrium dynamics of the product transactions, relationship levels, and prices on the supernetwork, and whose set of stationary points coincides with the set of solutions of the variational inequality problem. We also illustrate the dynamic supernetwork model through several numerical examples, for which the explicit equilibrium patterns are computed.     

Stuck at the bottom: Role of tacit and explicit knowledge on innovation of developing-country suppliers in global value chains

We take a social exchange theoretical perspective of innovation to develop and test a model of the intervening role of tacit and explicit knowledge exchange in explaining innovation of developing-country suppliers in non-equity-based global value chains (NEGVCs). Results of structural equation modelling for a sample of Bangladeshi suppliers embedded in apparel NEGVCs show that tacit and explicit knowledge fully mediate the associations between network competence and both low value-added and high value-added innovation contingent on the quality of network relationships. We also found that both tacit and explicit knowledge contribute more to low value-added innovation than to high value-added innovation. The managerial and policy implications of our findings as to why developing-country suppliers in NEGVCs are stuck in low value-added activities are fully discussed.     

Retailing in the 21st century: reflections and prologue to research

Retailing in the 21st century will no doubt be very different from retailing in the 20th century, just as retailing in the 20th century was very different from retailing in the 19th century. To understand and explain current retailing phenomena and retailing-related phenomena, and accurately predict such phenomena, it is necessary to have a coherent and consistent definition of retailing as well as comprehensive retailing theories based on this definition. This introduction to the special issue argues for such a definition and related comprehensive theories.     

Building and sustaining profitable customer loyalty for the 21st century

The concept of customer loyalty is conspicuous by it's ubiquity. Therefore, there is no surprise that it is one of the most widely studied areas by researchers and one of the most widely implemented marketing initiatives by practitioners. This article draws upon past research to review important findings related to customer behavior and attitude in the context of customer loyalty. Further, research related to linking loyalty to profitability and forward looking metric such as the customer lifetime value is reviewed to propose a conceptual framework for building and sustaining loyalty and profitability simultaneously at individual customer level. A two-tiered rewards structure is presented as a means for marketers to operationalize the framework. The conceptual framework hopes to serve as a platform to understand the evolving dominant logic of loyalty programs for building and sustaining loyalty in the twenty first century as well as induce further research in that direction.     

The effect of a geographically dispersed supply base on downside risk: Developing and testing the N-shaped theory

Globalisation, and its resultant complexity, has been called the most significant factor in the increase of supply chain risk. In this paper, we investigate the effects of supply base complexity that result from geographic dispersion and how that affects supply chain risk. Informed by several theories, an N-shaped theory for the relationship is hypothesised. A regression analysis that uses survey data from manufacturing firms operating in Finland is utilised to test the hypothesis. Contrary to our hypothesis, we find support for an inverse U-shaped association of supply base complexity due to geographic dispersion and the negative effects of supply risk. The possible causes of the result and how it can be reconciled with the N-shaped theory are discussed. Supply managers are advised to avoid international complexity creeping into supply and to engage in cross-functional discussion about the implications of supply base dispersion.     

Organizational buying effectiveness in supply chain environment: A conceptual framework

The idea of effectiveness measurement in supply chain context stresses the importance of value development process for the forthcoming member of the chain. The main purpose of this paper is to develop a conceptual model of organizational buying effectiveness in the supply chain context, emphasizing the importance of marketing orientation in the purchasing process. Literature has revealed that there are many focal interaction points between relationship marketing, supply chain management, and organizational buying. The effectiveness framework was developed regarding the value perception, organizational buying involvement, and decentralization of decision making     

How to date your clients in the 21st century: Challenges in managing customer relationships in today's world

Since its first entry into the literature discussion in the 1980s, customer relationship management (CRM) has found its way into nearly every company. Concepts like personalization, loyalty programs, and customer valuation are used regularly to interact with and prioritize customers. Unsurprisingly, this more widespread use has changed our understanding of CRM substantially and as a consequence, the field has seen a remarkable transformation in the past 3 decades. Yet, the CRM strategies implemented by many firms today are frequently still fundamentally based on an understanding of CRM from the early days. The purpose of this article is to outline the origins of CRM and to present the main wisdoms that firms believed to be true about customers 3 decades ago. I then discuss the key insights that academics and managers have obtained in recent years that increasingly challenge those wisdoms. The article ends with an outlook of CRM in years to come and presents some of the major challenges practitioners and researchers will have to deal with in the near future.     

A framework for strategy formulation in sustainable supply chains: a case study in the electric industry

The aim of a sustainable supply chain is the strategic integration of all social, environmental and economic goals within an organization, through a systematic coordination of key business processes in order to improve the long-term economic performance of a company and its value chain. This paper describes a new methodological approach to support the strategy formulation process in sustainable supply chains. The proposed methodology combines three analytical tools (analytic hierarchical process, fuzzy multi-objective optimization, and clustering methods) within a strategy formulation process, integrating the competitive and corporative strategies with the supply chain strategy on the basis of sustainability. A case study in the Mexican Federal Commission of Electricity Gulf-Center Distribution Division shows the capability of our proposed framework. This company is large and complex enough to encompass the whole issue of the supply chain. Results indicate that our methodology is a valid decision support tool to formulate a set of sustainable supply chain strategies, and it is able to generate a coordinated strategy for the management of a sustainable supply chain.     

A dynamic analysis of the impacts of export taxes: The case of Argentinean soy and beef markets

Argentina plays an important role in the global soy market as one of the world's leading exporters of soy products. In an effort to shift its agricultural sector's focus to value‐added exports and to raise revenue, Argentina's government has maintained a regime of differential export taxes on soy products. In addition to soy products, Argentina is a major producer, consumer and exporter of beef. However, over the last decade it has relinquished much of its world market share as its beef exports have fallen because the government has periodically imposed a ban on exports of beef along with maintaining an export tax. As the soy and livestock sectors are inextricably linked, owing to both industries’ intensive land use and the utilisation of soymeal as a feed supplement for cattle, trade policies in one sector have pronounced cross‐sectoral impacts. This study develops a theoretical model of these different sectors and trade policies, incorporating the dynamic decisions of cattle stock management. The model is calibrated to real‐world data on the Argentinean economy, and the impacts of trade liberalisation are quantified. Key results show modelling the various intersectoral linkages and the dynamic implications of cattle stock is essential for obtaining accurate estimates.     

A values approach to understanding ethical business relationships in the 21st century: A comparison between Germany,India, the People's Republic of China,and the United States

The purpose of this study was to examine howmanagerial values may differ between future managersfrom Germany, India, the People's Republic of China(PRC), and the United States (U.S.) and to considerhow these differences may influence current and futureethical business relationships. The results show thatthere are significant differences between countries onthe acceptance of authority with the exception of theU.S. and the PRC. All countries sampled were high onneed determined expression with nonsignificancebetween the means of the PRC/U.S. and Germany/U.S. Allcountries sampled were significantly high onequalitarianism and individualism was high for allcountries except the PRC and India, which were notsignificant. The results point to the increasedcommonality between future managers across the fourcountries as opposed to the traditional stereotypesassociated with each culture. Possible implicationsare discussed relative to the 21st century andorganizations that are involved in interculturalhiring.     

Banking Reforms for the 21st Century: A Perfectly Stable Banking System Based on Financial Innovations*

Although bank loans themselves are somewhat illiquid because of private information, most of their cashflows are not. Recent financial innovations allow commercial loans to be liquefied via credit derivatives and actual and synthetic securitizations. The loan originating bank holds the remaining illiquid equity tranche containing the concentrated credit risk, private information rent and the ‘excess spread’ that incentivize the bank to continue to monitor and service the loans. Empirically, we find that the average size of the equity tranche is about 3% for the representative commercial loan portfolios in our sample. The liquefaction of bank loans makes possible a banking system that restricts the guaranteed accounts to be backed by 100% reserves and the non‐guaranteed deposits to be backed by liquid securitized loan tranches, while retaining the deposit‐lending synergy. Such a system is perfectly safe without deposit insurance and it renders banks bankruptcy‐remote without sacrificing a bank's traditional role as a financial intermediary.     

Investigating the service brand: A customer value perspective

Despite considerable interest in the nature and role of marketing using a service perspective [Vargo S., Lusch R. Evolving to a new dominant logic for marketing. J Mark 2004; 68 (1): 1-17] there is limited research about branding. Research to date tends to be qualitative [e.g., Berry L. Cultivating service brand equity. J Acad Mark Sci 2000; 28: 128-137; de Chernatony L., Segal-Horn S. The criteria for successful services brands. Eur J Mark 2003; 37 (7/8): 1095-1118] rather than quantitative. This research closes this gap by developing and testing a theory of the influence of the service brand on the customer value-loyalty process. The model includes the traditional influence of brand image plus three additional influences that more fully reflect the broader service perspective (company image, employee trust, and company trust). Using survey data of a sample of 552 airline customers, the analysis shows there is a direct influence of all the aspects of the brand on customers' perceptions of value. In addition brand image, company image and employee trust have a mediated influence on customer value through customers' perceptions of service quality. Finally the analysis shows that a service brand does not have a direct influence on customer loyalty but rather its influence is mediated through customer value. This paper concludes with a discussion of the managerial and research implications.     

Loafing in the 21 century: Enhanced opportunities—and remedies—for withholding job effort in the new workplace

The electronic workplace, a greater emphasis on knowledge work and teams, and the increased relevance of managing impressions of work performance are among factors that relate to higher levels of withholding effort among problem employees in the 21^st century. This article considers these three factors in the context of dominant organizational forms—low-cost operators, global competitor corporations, and high-involvement firms—and how each can lead to lower on-the-job effort. Remedies are offered for new forms of withholding effort such as cyberloafing, as well as hiding lack of effort in virtual teams and through impression management. In addition, a different way of considering the problem of lower job effort is proposed through examination of how a work ethic and a leisure ethic can be synthesized to enhance organizational creativity, innovation, and performance.     

Development of Industruct: A Scale for the Measurement of Perceptions of Industry Structure

The development of INDUSTRUCT, an instrument designed to measure perceptions of industry structure based on Porter's five competitive forces formulation, is described. A seven-step procedure based on psychometric principles was used in the process. The results indicate that a valid five dimensional scale can be defined and an instrument developed to provide a satisfactory basis for implementation in future theory testing.