Historical coevolution of governance and technology in the industrial revolutions

While the relationships between technological change and organisational change have been widely observed in specific cases, little has been done to generalise about such interrelationships over the longer term. The paper uses historical evidence to categorise the principal changes in governance (covering the control, structure and process of systems) in the industrial epoch, which are seen as the successive predominance of markets, (corporate) hierarchies and then networks. These correspond to the successive importance of labour processes, capital processes and information processes. There appears to be a link with the three ‘industrial revolutions’ that have arisen at century-long intervals since the later 18th century, though the causal interrelationships remain uncertain and by no means necessary. Network alignment is suggested as a means for bringing about the coevolution of governance and technology in development processes. A number of mechanisms for matching technological with organisational change are suggested by the governance literature, although no one theory of governance appears able to explain the observed historical phenomena.     

Explaining the Growth of Divorce in Great Britain

This paper tests whether the liberalisation of divorce law or economic factors can explain the post-war growth of divorce rates in Great Britain. Timing differences regarding the dates of legal innovations in England & Wales relative to Scotland are exploited to test for divorce law effects. No effect on marital dissolution of extending the grounds for the divorce can be detected, though other innovations in family law have had a powerful but generally temporary impact on divorce rates via their effect on transaction costs and settlement rules. Economic theory suggests that rising relative wages of women have reduced the gains from remaining married by inter alia diminishing the benefits of household specialisation and that rising real earnings of women have increased post divorce welfare by providing a measure of financial independence. The results are consistent with the real, but not the relative, wage hypothesis.     

Productivity revolutions and science driven growth

This paper presents a simple model of growth over the very long run that distinguishes between scientific knowledge and technology. Making this distinction highlights the importance of the scientific revolution to the emergence of modern sustained economic growth.     

Export Growth and Economic Development in Colonial British America

This paper analyzes the dynamic relationship between tobacco and the rest of the economy in the colonial Chesapeake to test the staple theory version of the export-led growth hypothesis. The paper adopts a multivariate time-series approach which accommodates the presence of cointegration and contemporaneous correlations among innovations. The empirical evidence strongly supports the staple theory. British demand for tobacco is statistically exogenous and found to induce cyclical fluctuations in the colonial price of tobacco as well as temporary over- or underproduction, as measured by a long-term cointegration relationship between the British demand for tobacco and the colonial price of land.     

The growth of knowledge: Testing a theory of scientific revolutions with a formal model

Modern theories of science emphasize scientific revolutions rather than the traditional cumulative view of scientific progress. Thomas Kuhn, in particular, has formulated a theory of science based on the lifecycle of paradigms. Though Kuhn's theory is attractive, no calculus is offered by which the theory can be tested. This study tests the dynamic consistency of Kuhn's theory by formalizing the theory and testing it with a computer simulation model. The model plays the roles of the actors, tracing out the consequences of their day-to-day actions. Sensitivity tests are used to explore the importance of various hypotheses. Results show the theory to be dynamically consistent: The lifecycle of paradigms described by Kuhn can be accounted for by Kuhn's theory. Kuhn's theory thus passes a test to which few other theories of science have been subjected. The study shows how modeling can provide a method for testing theories even when those theories are stated entirely in qualitative terms, at a high level of abstraction, and in a context divorced from explicit dynamic analysis.     

An industrial strategy for Britain: the nature and role of planning

It is argued that Britain has reached a turning point in its industrial history and that a sharp change in the way industrial policy is approached is now necessary. A primarily regulatory role for the state has to be transformed into a primarily developmental one. The market will continue as a crucial part of the system, but it will work within long-term parameters set by government. A system rather similar to the Japanese approach is advocated, but a straight transplant is seen to be infeasible and undesirable. Issues of democratic control and the power of the transnationals receive particular attention.     

中国、美国、英国证券投资基金业对比研究

通过对中、美、英三国证券投资基金业的比较研究 ,发现中国证券投资基金还存在一些问题 ,并对进一步发展中国的证券投资基金业提出了政策建议。     

Coups,revolutions and efficient policies in autocracies

The purpose of this paper is to explore the interaction of two mechanisms that might constrain the power of dictators: the threat of a coup by the selectorate and a revolution by citizens. Our results help explain a stylized fact, namely that autocracies are far more likely to be either the best or the worst performers in terms of growth and public goods policies. To this end, we focus on accountability within dictatorships using a model where both the selectorate and the citizens are the principals and the autocrat is the agent. Our results highlight that both excessively strong and excessively weak dictators lead to poor economic performances, and that a balanced distribution of de facto political power is required to incentivize the dictator to choose efficient economic policies.     

Accounting for breakout in Britain: The industrial revolution through a Malthusian lens

This paper introduces a simple dynamic model to examine the breakout from a Malthusian economy to a modern growth regime. It identifies several factors that determine the fastest rate at which the population can grow without engendering declining living standards. We then apply the framework to Britain and find a dramatic increase in sustainable population growth at the time of the Industrial Revolution, well before the beginning of modern levels of income growth. The main contributions to the British breakout were technological improvements and structural change away from agricultural production, while coal, capital, and trade played a minor role. In addition to solidifying the link between the Industrial Revolution and rising living standards, this research reconciles the gradualist and limited Crafts–Harley view of the Industrial Revolution with a dramatic and rapid change in Britain’s macroeconomic character.     

美英公益企业发展的比较研究及其思考

本文从定义、历史背景、支撑环境三方面对美英公益企业的产生和发展进行了比较,指出由于路径依赖,美英公益企业演化的历史存在较大差异,即美国公益企业的发展主要受社会团体力量的驱动,而英国公益企业的发展主要受政府的推动。对中国公益企业的发展而言,采取政府主导和社会团体协助相结合的举措是比较可行的促进策略。     

The basic theory of industrial ecological economics

There is a great difference between the new type industrialization road in China and the road of industrialization first, then informatization and at last ecologization in western developed countries. Industrial eco-economics is one of the critical branches of eco-economics. It is a subject of objective law of structural upgrading, functional optimization and highly efficient running of industrial eco-economic system, which is combined with industrial economic system and eco-system under the condition of intellectual economy and circular economy combinations. Meanwhile, it is a relatively weak subject in the research field of eco-economics in China for the time being. Taking the practice road of new type industrialization needs the guidance of industrial eco-economics. The modern industrial eco-economics in the 21st century must be adapted to the need of new type road of industrialization in China. The paper analyzes the status quo of research and the main contents of industrial eco-economics and tries to study some key theories of the branch subject.     

Joan Robinson and the three cambridge revolutions

Joan Robinson's association with three Cambridge ‘revolutions’—imperfect competition, effective demand and capital theory—is examined in the context of her personal and intellectual partnership with Richard Kahn, John Maynard Keynes and Piero Sraffa. Initially, imperfect competition appeared to have successfully extended marginal analysis to all market forms. It also allowed Richard Kahn and Joan Robinson to persuade Keynes to present the main argument of The General Theory in terms of aggregate demand and aggregate supply. By the early 1950s, however, Joan Robinson had rejected the Marshallian methodology and had become a strenuous censor of neoclassical theory. In this paper the origin of her critique is traced to her reading of Sraffa's Introduction to Ricardo's Principles.     

Public Investment and Economic Growth in Latin America: an Empirical Test

The paper analyzes the impact on economic growth of public investment spending and other relevant variables (such as human capital) for nine major Latin American nations over the 1983–93 period. The results suggest that both public and private investment spending contribute to economic growth. Overall central government consumption expenditures, on the other hand, are found to have a negative effect on private investment and growth. Finally, public expenditures on education and healthcare are found to have a positive and statistically significant effect on private capital formation and long–term economic growth. From a policy standpoint, the results suggest that indiscriminate cuts in public and private investment spending are likely to be counterproductive in the long run, and more importantly, scarce public expenditures should be channeled to the promotion of new human capital (via primary and secondary education) and the maintenance of existing human capital (through healthcare expenditures).     

Tax tilting and politics: Some theory and evidence for Latin America

A government budget deficit can exist for at least two possible reasons: tax smoothing and/or tax tilting. Under tax-smoothing, deficits are temporary phenomena resulting from the decision not to vary the tax rate in response to fluctuations in government spending (as a share of output). This is done in order to minimize the distortionary cost of taxes. Tax tilting occurs whenever the government has an incentive to discount the losses to society from taxes at a higher rate than society discounts them; hence it delays taxes or advances spending introducing an upward trend in total government debt. This paper develops a model that implies that tax-tilting tends to increase with political risk. An increase in political risk, measured by the probability of losing power, increases the rate at which the government discounts the future, causing government policy to be relatively more myopic. Hence it delays taxes or advances spending and its deficit increases. Using data from a panel of 19 Latin-American countries for the period 1984–2009, the paper presents estimation results that strongly support the proposition that an increase in political risk increases the degree of tax-tilting.     

Globalisation, Growth and Crises: The View from Latin America

In this paper I analyse the role of openness and globalisation in Latin America's economic development. The paper is divided into two distinct parts: I first ( Sections 2 to 4 ) provide an analysis of 60 years of the region's economic history, that go from the launching of the Alliance for Progress by the Kennedy administration in 1961, to the formulation and implementation of the market oriented reforms of the Washington Consensus in the 1990s and 2000s. I conclude that Latin America's history has been characterised by low growth, high inflation and recurrent external crises. In Section 5 I deal formally with the costs of crises and I estimate a number of variance component models of the dynamics of growth. I find that external crises have been more costly in Latin America than in the rest of the world. I also find that the cost of external crises has been inversely related to the degree of openness.     

中美日三国内生经济增长模型研究

1956年,美国经济学家索洛(Solow)首先建立了新古典增长模型,认为决定产出的主要生产要素是资本和劳动力的投入,并且两种生产要素之间是可以替代的,而生产要素的边际报酬是递减的。^[1]1957年,索洛又在自己关于经济增长的论文中首次提出了技术的概念,他认为单位产量的变化、劳动力的教育程度以及科技进步等因素都属于“技术变化”因素。^[2]遗憾的是,在他建立的经济增长模型中却只是通过时间因素t来反映技术变化,并没有具体分析各因素是如何对技术产生影响的。     

运用主导产业理论开发西部经济

主导产业理论是罗斯托经济成长阶段理论中的核心内容，了解它的基本内容、应用的基本原则和应用的现实可能性，对于指导西部区域经济的发展具有指导意义。 　　一、主导产业理论与实践分析 　　罗斯托在经济成长阶段论中阐述了具有丰富内涵的主导产业理论，在这一理论中，他提出了最完善的主导产业更替规律，他把经济成长分为 6个阶段，经济成长的各个阶段都存在相应的起主导作用的产业部门。这种主导部门不仅本身具有高增长率，而且能带动其他部门的经济增长，经济成长阶段的更替表现为主导部门序列的变化，现代经济成长实质上是部门的成长…     

The Political Economy of Growth in Latin America and East Asia: Some Empirical Evidence

This article examines the historical records of poor economic performance of Latin America compared to East Asia's relative success in the 1970s and 1980s. Although both regions adopted similar postwar protective inward-oriented development strategies, their experiences and economic outcomes diverged significantly in subsequent years. Some have argued that East Asian countries outperformed Latin American ones because they implemented appropriate policies that were adaptive to changes in the global market scene. This study shows that the respective sociopolitical and institutional environment of the two regions was also an important factor contributing to their economic outcomes. A growth model augmented with policy-driven and sociopolitical variables is developed. Using data for selected countries in both regions, the results confirm the hypothesis of a negative direct (efficiency) effect of sociopolitical instability on growth, with an additional indirect (accumulation) effect through investment, irrespective of a country's location. Policies adopted by governments, particularly to control inflation and foreign indebtedness and to enhance economic freedom and human capital accumulation, appear crucial for stability. Such policies influenced economic performance through both the direct and the indirect channels. (JEL B25 , E13 , F43 , H19 , O57 )     

Employment and Productivity Growth in Europe and North America: The Impact of Labor Market Institutions

In this paper, we examine long-run employment and productivity growth in the major economies of North America and Europe from 1960 to the early 1990s. We develop a model in which output growth is determined by the growth of aggregate demand, and the relative contributions of employment and productivity growth to the growth of output depend on country specific labor market institutions. We find that institutions that promote collective bargaining, employment security and social protection have roughly equal and opposite effects on employment growth (negative) and productivity growth (positive), giving rise to an inverse relationship between these variables. The welfare implications of this finding are that labor market deregulation could result in more work and greater inequality and insecurity for workers, without significantly increasing the rate of economic growth.     

中国非公有制企业诚信缺失问题研究--基于产业组织理论视角

非公有制企业诚信缺失既由其外部环境的不确定所致,也与社会监督作用的弱化有关。因此,应以政府为主体减少非公有制企业政策环境的不确定性,弥补社会监督主体对非公有制企业信用信息的不完全性,减少其诚信缺失行为的发生。