中国葡萄种植产业布局的时空变迁及影响因素解析——基于1998—2018年省级面板数据

[目的]近年来,我国葡萄种植业发展迅速,产业调整与优化将是其未来发展重点,需要对葡萄生产布局变迁及影响因素开展新的讨论。[方法]文章运用描述性分析、产业集中度指数和规模比较优势指数测度1998—2018年我国葡萄生产的布局变动及发展趋势,并构建面板模型从资源禀赋、基础设施、经济因素、技术进步和政策环境五个方面探讨我国葡萄种植格局变动的影响因素。[结果]我国葡萄生产的地域格局已初具雏形,且产地正在由集中走向分散,“西迁南移”变动特征显著,具有比较优势的新主产区正逐渐形成;地区自然条件、农村老龄化、灌溉条件、比较效益、非农就业、技术进步和国家政策对我国葡萄种植布局变迁具有显著影响,且不同要素对是否为主产区域的影响存在差异。[结论]建议因地制宜地进行葡萄生产布局规划,着力改善生产条件,加大科技投入;进一步拓宽产业链,提升附加值;加强政府支持力度以应对转型结构调整阶段的水果供需变动。     

中国马铃薯生产区域布局的时空特征与驱动机制研究*——基于主产区的面板数据的分析

[目的]基于1993—2015年中国马铃薯21个省区的数据,实证研究马铃薯生产区域布局的时空特征及其内在的驱动机制。[方法]从全国和5个马铃薯优势产区层面,运用生产规模指数分析马铃薯生产区域布局的时空特征,从自然环境、技术进步、经济效益、非农产业化水平、政府支持政策等方面厘清和探究马铃薯生产区域布局的驱动机制,并重点利用面板数据计量模型研究这些因素在全国以及5个马铃薯优势产区的影响的差异性和重要程度。[结果]中国马铃薯播种面积从1993年的308. 720万hm2增至2015年的551. 830万hm2,呈现迅速增长、下降与增长交替并存、平稳增长3个阶段;中国马铃薯生产的地理集聚现象明显。一方面,马铃薯生产规模在不同省区出现更迭变动。另一方面,马铃薯生产区域进一步向优势区域集中,呈现出向西南和西北优势产区集中的特征。[结论]中国马铃薯生产区域布局是自然灾害、农业基础设施、技术进步、马铃薯与粮食生产净利润比值、非农产业水平和政府支持政策等因素共同作用的结果,其中自然灾害、农业基础设施、非农产业化水平、政府支持政策的影响更为显著,但由于区域差异,各因素在全国和不同马铃薯优势产区的影响程度有明显的差异性。     

北镇市葡萄产业入选国家特色农产品特优区分析

北镇市是辽宁省农业较为发达的地区之一,葡萄种植历史悠久,葡萄产业集群更是领先全省、叫响全国,种植面积达到21万亩,总产量达到36万吨,是"中国巨峰葡萄之乡"。北镇巨峰葡萄通过了国家地理标识登记。葡萄已经成为北镇市县域经济的重要支柱产业之一,被农业部列入《特色农产品区域布局规划2013-2020》葡萄优势区。本文通过对北镇市葡萄产业的分析,为类似地区的农业产业发展提供借鉴。     

我国葡萄生产空间布局特征研究

随着葡萄育种、栽培及管理技术的提高,我国葡萄种植已由传统的优势产区发展到全国各省区都有种植,特别是南方产区葡萄的生产持续快速增长,使得全国葡萄生产布局发生了较大变化,因此在新形势下研究我国葡萄生产布局特征,把握葡萄生产变迁特征与规律,对于合理地配置农业生产资源、优化调整葡萄产业空间布局与规划,具有重要的现实意义。文章首先从宏观角度系统分析了我国葡萄生产的阶段特征与全国层面生产布局的变迁,其次利用微观层面的农户调研数据、比较了不同产区间葡萄生产投入与产出的区域特点及其差异;接着引入空间自相关性指标,采用Moran’s I指数,在Arc GIS中选取基于边界的空间权重矩阵定义,从全局与局部自相关角度分析了葡萄生产投入产出的空间特征及其与地理位置之间的相互依赖关系与驱动因素。研究结果表明,我国葡萄生产呈现明显的"西迁"、"南移"的发展趋势;葡萄生产投入与产出指标具有明显的区域差异性;受葡萄产业内部与外部因素的驱动,其分布体现出显著的空间自相关性,其中全局空间自相关定量测算结果显示我国葡萄生产存在空间正相关性,即相邻地区葡萄生产的投入与产出指标具有相似性,且空间自相关性在逐年加强;局部空间自相关指数显示我国葡萄投入与产出的低值聚集区主要分布在陕甘宁与内蒙古地区,而高值聚集区主要分布在江浙沪一带,进一步表明,地理因素通过经济发展水平与农业生产结构等方面因素影响着葡萄产业的发展。     

中国糖料生产的地区优势分析

本文运用概率优势模型 ,对中国糖料生产的地区优势进行比较 ,发现中国糖料种植区域布局的转移符合比较优势。广西、云南、新疆和内蒙古之所以具有种植糖料作物的优势 ,很大程度上在于这些地区具有种植技术水平、规模和自然条件等方面的优势     

通化市葡萄酒产业发展现状及对策研究

通化市具有种植酿酒葡萄的自然资源及地理条件优势,但存在专业技术人才缺乏、葡萄生产基地规模小等劣势。为弥补劣势,应把握当前葡萄酒产业市场前景广阔这一机会,合理运用政策支持,利用龙头企业带动葡萄酒产业规模化发展,培养更多专业技术人才,建立标准化大规模生产基地,提升葡萄酒及原材料品质,加大宣传力度,促进通化市葡萄酒产业更好更快发展。     

北京市板栗产业发展的实证研究

对北京市板栗产业的生产、布局、加工、销售、废弃物利用、科技水平等进行调查研究,结果表明:北京板栗种植规模较大,优势区域布局明显,但经营分散,管理粗放,产品加工转化率低、废弃物利用率及优良品种采用率不高等问题制约产业发展。为充分发挥板栗对北京山区农村经济发展的支撑作用,基于调查分析结果,提出了应采取措施实现栗林的适度集中经营,加大政府资金扶持力度,加强板栗产业开发等政策建议。     

对创新型产业用地供应与管理的实践分析——以南京、深圳和天津为例

正近几年,创新型产业以其新的发展方式和经济增长支撑点,促进了区域经济的快速发展,成为我国经济转型升级的着力点。作为产业发展的基础载体和生产要素,土地因素是构成创新型产业生命周期的关键所在。土地开发及利用审批政策影响创新型产业的孵化效率、国土规划影响创新型产业的类型及结构布局、用地监管制度影响创新型产业的规模及集聚效益等。因此,立足于经济新常态的背景,探讨如何最大程度地发挥土     

广东县域粮食产业高质量发展研究

近年来,广东粮食生产较为稳定,但受制于地形与种植结构等因素,2022年粮食总产量仅排名全国第19位,粮食自给率只有25.4%,排名全国倒数第二。本文从县域粮食产业的角度,对广东粮食发展规模、区域分布进行研究,对广东与江苏、浙江两省粮食生产情况进行对比,采取案例分析方法考察台山、罗定的粮食产业发展情况。结果表明：广东县域粮食产业发展主要受制于种粮效益差、机械化程度低、生产规模小等因素,应从加强基础设施建设、延长产业链等方面着手,推动广东县域粮食产业高质量发展。     

饶阳葡萄 万亩飘香

正近年来,河北省饶阳县在实施"产业扶贫"过程中,积极因地制宜调整农业产业结构,引导农民集中连片发展葡萄种植,让广大种植户从规模化、集约化、市场化经营中增加收入。目前,该县葡萄种植面积达11万亩,年产葡萄26万吨,产值20亿元。2014年,"饶阳葡萄"入选国家地理标志保护产品名录。     

Price transmission between products at different stages of manufacturing in forest industries

The theory of demand and supply implies a positive relationship, or “price transmission” between the prices of products at different stages of manufacturing. This relationship was investigated with quarterly prices of softwood stumpage in the US South, and national prices of forest products, from 1977 to 2002. All prices, net of inflation, were found to be nonstationary and there was no evidence of co-integration between prices. Vector autogressive models, augmented by Granger causality tests and multiplier analysis showed that there was a one-to-one permanent positive response of the southern sawtimber stumpage price to a permanent change in the national lumber price. There was also a one-third permanent positive response of the national paper price to a permanent change in the national pulp price. There was no relation between regional pulpwood prices and national pulp or paper prices. When price transmission was significant, the full adjustment took about 2 years.     

Application of an ecosystem function framework to perceptions of community woodlands

Owners, local residents, government, and conservation organisations can express divergent preferences in the development and management of local woodlands. The perceptions of these four groups were examined, in the context of three community woodlands in Eastern England, using an ecosystem function framework. In a pilot study, residents were able to allocate a relative importance to woodland ecosystem services which were then related to “regulation”, “habitat”, and “production” or “information” functions. However residents also placed importance on negative services or “dis-services” associated with the woodland ecosystem. Therefore a fifth category of “dis-services” was included in the main survey which included 84 local residents, three woodland owners, three government institutions, and six representatives from conservation groups. Each of the four groups placed greatest importance on services associated with habitat (16–39% of the total importance) and information (30–50%) functions suggesting, in this example, mutual interest in the use of woodlands as a habitat or recreational resource. By contrast a potential area of difference was the particularly high importance placed by one owner on dis-services such as fly tipping. In addition the woodland owners placed higher importance (10–20%), than local residents and conservation groups (7–9%), on the productive services of the wood. This suggests a need for communication when production-related operations affect recreation. The ecosystem function framework appears to be a useful approach for highlighting potential tensions and areas of mutual interest in the management of semi-natural ecosystems.     

In Vino ‘No’ Veritas: impacts of fraud on wine imports in China

China is one of the largest wine importing countries in the world and is poised for continued import growth in the future. Increased wine purchases throughout China have given rise to persistent fraud where fake wines are packaged and sold with counterfeit contents and labels. For exporting countries like France, counterfeit wines displace market share, damage foreign brand reputation, and cause distrust in consumers who are aware of counterfeiting problems throughout the country. We examine the impact of fraudulent wine events (as measured by negative media reports) on Chinese wine demand differentiated by supplying country. We employ the Rotterdam demand system and a switching regression procedure to estimate import demand and compare results across different media variable specifications. Results consistently show that negative reports disproportionately affect French wine regardless of how the media variable is specified. This is not surprising because most fraudulent events involve French wine counterfeits.     

An evaluation framework for earthquake-responsive land administration

In recent years earthquakes and their secondary hazards have claimed the largest number of lives of all large natural disasters. Some of the world’s most earthquake-prone zones are also areas of high population density. The impact is magnified by vulnerability factors including non-enforcement of building codes, knowledge gaps, urban poverty and poor governance capacity to manage and reduce earthquake risks. Poor security of land tenure and property rights increases the vulnerability of people and affects their ability to respond to natural disasters.Earthquake recovery and reconstruction provides very significant challenges for land agencies, with these challenges differing from one country to the next due to differences in the local context. Drawing on contrasting case studies in Haiti, Nepal and New Zealand this paper identifies the common post-earthquake land administration functions and challenges that may apply to many contexts. These lessons provide land agencies and other key stakeholders with a summary of the challenges an earthquake poses for land administration at different post-disaster stages. We also discuss the policy and regulatory, institutional, operational and preparedness lessons for land administration. From these lessons we propose a framework for evaluating the earthquake-responsiveness of a land administration system. This framework can be used by a land agency in an earthquake prone region, or where an earthquake has recently occurred, to assess what challenges to land administration might occur in the event of an earthquake, and the preparedness of their land administration system.     

Agrarian Poverty,Nutrition and Economic Class – A Study of Gujarat,India

This paper analyses poverty and calorific undernourishment in the Indian state of Gujarat, where high and market‐led industrial growth has resulted in rapid economic improvement. The study is carried out through a combination of secondary and survey‐based data. We conclude that the neoliberal agenda of uncontrolled, outward‐looking growth has not resulted in significant reduction of poverty or malnourishment in rural areas. Furthermore, while land ownership is officially used as a proxy for wealth distribution, class position appears a better predictor of poverty status in the rural areas than landownership per se. At the policy level, there is a need to revive the agrarian economy and create new non‐agricultural assets, and the primary focus in the state must shift to the distribution of created assets rather than a single‐minded focus on growth.     

Does sustainable agricultural growth require a system of innovation? Evidence from Ghana and Burkina Faso

This paper tests the ‘systems of innovation’ hypothesis for a selection of crops in Ghana and Burkina Faso that have shown significant growth in production over an approximately 20-year period. The question is whether such growth can only occur if supported by a system of innovation. Using two indicators (a common understanding on objectives and priorities, and a high level of interactivity), we find little evidence for the existence of anything that might be considered a high functioning system of innovation.     

Local impacts of industrial tree plantations: An empirical analysis in Indonesia across plantation types

The values ascribed to industrial tree plantations are often controversial. Hence knowledge of their perceived impacts is important for improving their integration in rural landscapes. In 2016 we conducted household surveys with 606 respondents living in villages adjacent to acacia, teak and pine plantations across three islands in Indonesia (Java, Borneo, Sumatra). Results show that perceptions toward pine and teak plantations tend to differ from those toward acacia pulpwood plantations in several ways. Pine and teak plantations are perceived to have a higher number and variety of benefits and services, a higher number of positive impacts, a better environmental record, and to present more opportunities to local people for use of plantation land and products for improving rural livelihoods. In addition, we find that villagers around acacia pulpwood plantations tend to seek economic development and infrastructure to open up remote areas, yet their expectations were often only partially met. Recommendations from our analysis include: the role of the State in plantations must be clarified and potentially reinforced; the role of institutions as intermediaries is fundamental; and contributions by communities to design of management plans should be accommodated.     

Upstream demand for water use by new tree plantations imposes externalities on downstream irrigated agriculture and wetlands*

Large‐scale tree plantations in high rainfall upstream areas can reduce fresh water inflows to river systems, thereby imposing external costs on downstream irrigation, stock and domestic water users and wetland interests. We take the novel approach of expressing all benefits and costs of establishing plantations in terms of $ per gigalitre (GL) of water removed annually from river flows, setting upstream demands on the same basis as downstream demands. For the Macquarie Valley, a New South Wales sub‐catchment of Australia’s Murray‐Darling Basin, we project changes in land and water use and changes in economic surpluses under two policy settings: without and with a policy requiring permanent water entitlements to be purchased from downstream parties, before plantation establishment. Without the policy, and given a high stumpage value for trees ($70/m³), upstream gains in economic surplus projected from expanding plantations are $639 million; balanced against $233 million in economic losses by downstream irrigators and stock and domestic water users for a net gain of $406 million, but 345 GL lower mean annual environmental flows. With the policy, smaller gains in upstream economic surplus from trees ($192 million), added to net downstream gains ($138 million) from sale of water, result in gains of $330 million with no reduction in environmental flows. Sustaining the 345 GL flow for a $76 million (406–330) reduction in gains to economic surplus may be seen to cost only $0.22 million/GL; but this is much lower than the market value of the first units of that water to agriculture and forestry.     

Underpayment of Small Producers of Coffee and Cocoa in Sierra Leone

Fieldwork shows that many Sierra Leonean producers do not receive the official producer price for their coffee and cocoa, due to the concentration of buying stations, credit relations, the small quantities offered for sale, and the lack of marketing knowledge of the numerous and unorganized farmers. To the traders underpayment may seem economically justifiable to a certain extent, but to the farmers it means poverty and debt. A new village marketing centre project aims at remedying this situation and has already led to higher prices. Although no longer allowed to take their "just" share from the producers, traders are still willing to deal with the new centres.     

Malaria incidence and agricultural efficiency in Uganda

The cost of accessing healthcare can be a major determinant of disease prevalence, which in turn has short‐ and long‐term welfare implications on poor households. In response, governments in developing countries often resort to subsidizing the cost of drugs, which, while perhaps easier to administer, may not always be the most effective way of addressing healthcare cost. In this regard, we analyze the impact of different types of household level health expenses on disease incidence and agricultural production efficiency. We use data from the 2006 Uganda National Household Survey, which covered approximately 7,400 households. The results suggest that a 10% increase in consultation, medicine, and hospitalization expenses would reduce malaria incidence respectively by 35.6%, 20.5%, and 21.3 %, which translates into a 1.1%, 0.6%, and 0.6 % decrease in agricultural inefficiency, respectively. The results indicate that helping poor households meet expenses for consultation through subsidies or eliminating consultation fees has a larger impact on malaria incidence and agricultural productivity among poor rural households than subsidizing the cost of medical drugs, the most common avenue chosen by developing country governments in the fight against the disease.