Positive Research on China＇s Economic Growth Quality——Analyze the Fluctuating Situation of the Factor Input and Aggregative Productivity

To analyze China‘s fluctuating situation of the factor input and aggregative productivity is not only the main method to seek the source of the economic growth but also the main way to weigh the level of economic growth quality. As to economic growth of a country, the improvement of the productivity is extremely important. The growth of the output can be realized through two kinds of ways: increasing the quantity of factor input of orimproving the effciency of the input and output. Therefore, the level of economic growth quafity does not mainly depend on the amount of invesTed factor, but the importance of improving the produtivity since Pesources are rare.The relative improvement of efficiency in use of the invested factor marks the economic growing quality. So, in order to understand the economic growth quafity of China to some extent, it must analyze Chinese factor input and aggregative productivity. This is the main topic that this text wilt be probed into.     

The Mechanism of the Middle Income Trap and the Potential Factors Influencing China＇s Economic Growth

Data from WDI show that developing countries are easily caught in the ＂middle income trap.＂ To interpret the mechanism of the ＂middle income trap,＂ this paper focuses on： （1） Based on the empirical framework of economic growth, we perform an empirical research on the determinants of economic growth at different income levels and discover that fixed capital investment, FDI and human capital accumulation are the main factors influencing less developed economies while for the upper middle income level and high-income level countries, the engines of economic growth change to institutions and R＆D. （2） We discuss the possible reasons why developing countries can have rapid economic growth before reaching the middleineome level, but cannot transform growth mechanisms in the middle income level. （3） We classify the factors that have influenced China＇s economic growth since the reform and analyze the potential ones for China＇s future development.     

The transformation of China＇s economic and government functions

The content of China＇s economic transformation is not single, and this article argues that it includes three parts. The first is the reform of economic system, the second is the change in the pattern of economic growth, and the third is the adjustment of economic structure. Government is the leading force of China＇s economic transformation, and repeated reform of government institutions has brought about some changes to government functions. But problems are obvious that lag changes of government functions have become an obstacle in China＇s economic transformation. This article describes the historical evolution and the reality of China＇s economic transformation, and analyzes the main reasons of lag changes in government functions, and reveals that the transformation of government functions is the key for successful transformation of China＇s economy.     

The obstacles of China＇s economic transformation

In the past 30 years, China has gone from the transformation from a planned economy to a market economy, from the extensive economic growth mode to intensive economic growth model, and from relying on investment and export-led economy to relying on domestic demand and stimulating economic. China＇s economic transformation includes three parts： The first is the reform of economic system, the second is the change in the pattern of economic growth and the third is the adjustment of economic structure. This article describes the historical evolution and the reality of China＇s economic transformation, analysis the obstacles to China＇s economic transformation, and on this basis, put forward some suggestions.     

The effects of land market development on economic growth： an empirical analysis based on Chinese panel data, 1999-2005

Optimized land resources allocation is important for economic growth because land is one of the basic elements for economic development. And urban land resources allocation has had an increasingly important influence since the Chinese socialist market economy system was established. This paper estimates the production function of both the secondary and the tertiary industries of China＇s 31 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the central government through an analysis of the panel data of the total output value of the secondary and the tertiary industries, invested capital, invested labor jorces and the land market-jeatured management of the above-mentioned regions during the period of 1999-2005. and examines the positive influence of the above- mentioned factors on regional economic output, This study concludes that urban economic output is positively related with the level of urban land resources market-featured management, since the rate of economic growth of those regions approximates 14. 7% under the condition of urban land market running during the period of 1999-2005.     

Resource constraint,sustainable economic growth pattern and transformation of economic system in China

Over the past 20 years, China has made spectacular achievements in economic growth as well as in thetransformation of economic growth pattern. Industrial structure is being updated, and technology is playing a more andmore important role in economic development. The energy and resource consumption in many industries and enterprisesare reducing. However, we should realize that there are still many problems in changing the economic growth pattern,such as high input, high consumption, high discharge, inharmony, recycling difficulty, and low efficiency, which havegreatly impaired and restrict Chinese economic development. Therefore, the fundamental change of the economic growthpattern is inevitable. Based on the analysis on the status quo and the exploit of resources, this paper suggests that thetransformation from unsustainable to sustainable growth is the only choice in changing the economic growth pattern. Inaddition, the transformation should not completely rely on the fundamental effects of market mechanism. We should makefull use of the power of governments to speed up the transformation of economic system.     

Experiences and Prospects of China＇s Free Economic Zones after over 20 Years

Chinese FEZs are used as the tool for opening-up policy and the structural reform as well as the growth pole for the regional economic development. It is true that no Free Economic Zones （FEZs） in the world like in China have made so strong impact on national economic development and structural reform. Due to the change of their existing condition since the middle of 1990s, Chinese FEZs have to face the new challenges and problems. This study discusses and prospects the transformation and further development of Chinese FEZs in the 21^st century as well as their significance for the transformation of FEZs in other countries based on the analysis of the indicators such as the role, policy, industrial sectors, administration, development model, spatial structure and location.     

The Impact of Chinese Economic Increase on Economy of Northeast Asia

Chinese economic total quantity has leaped to the sixth m the world because ot the tast development for nearly 30 years, and become the world economics powerful nation gradually. The Chinese economic growth has influenced tremendously on the world economic development. Being Chinese close neighbor, how has the Northeast Asia be influenced？ This paper will elaborate from the following three aspects： Chinese economic increase made China become important strength to promote the process of regional cooperation; Chinese economic increase made the pattern of Northeast Asian cooperation in economy and trade changed; competition and difference that Chinese economic increase brought to Northeast Asia. The increase of Chinese economic has positive influence on the economy of Northeast Asia, and is one of the powers causing the Northeast Asian economy to grow. At the same time, this kind of influence is mutual. In particular the economic cooperation with Japan is the key to establish the integration of the Northeast Asian economy.     

Productivity,Economic Growth and the Middle Income Trap： Implications for China

This paper explores the middle income trap （MIT） concept from the perspective of productivity growth. Through the examination of cross-country historical statistics as well as China＇s regional data, it sheds light on the debate about whether the Chinese economy can avoid the middle income trap. It should be one of the first papers proposing an analytical framework to address this controversial issue. The findings should have important implications for economic policies guiding China＇s development in the coming decades.     

The sustainability and transition of economic growth in China：from a perspective of factor structure

After more than 20 years＇ high speed growth, the sustainable growth of Chinese economy faces serious limitation of resources and factors now and in the future. In order to maintain the economic growth. China has to trans-form the way of economic growth, Based on the analysis on the related theories of economic growth and the structural transformation in factors of production, this paper proposes that the transformation of the economic growth way has to impel the optimization and the promotion of the utilization structure of factors of production. Finall.v, based on the analysis of the necessity to change the pattern of economic growth, this paper proposes＇ the strategic measures to promote the continuous economic growth and the transformation of patterns of economic growth.     

资源错配、要素市场总扭曲及福利损失测算*——基于单位要素成本的生产率分解视角

通过引入单位要素成本指标,本文对佩特兰和勒文叟汉（Petrin and Levinsohn）的生产率分解模型进行了拓展,［1］得到了一个更为准确的资源重置效应。利用2000—2007年中国规模以上制造业企业数据,经过测算显示,技术进步和要素市场总扭曲是生产率增长的主要来源;样本期间资源重置对生产率增长的平均贡献仅有324%,且日渐式微。然而资源错配造成的福利损失却依旧占制造业增加值的近2663%。这表明,在现有体制下通过市场自发调节促进要素合理配置的空间已经耗尽,经济结构呈现出一定的“固化”倾向,进一步的资源重置应来自对现有经济结构的改革,以缓解资源错配。本文最后通过测算各地区的资源重置潜力,为区域结构优化提供了一个量化参考。     

The Nature of China's Economic Growth in the Past Two Decades

The Chinese economy has grown at record rates since the start of the market-oriented reforms in 1978. Motivated by the Asian productivity debate, this article provides an assessment of the role of total factor productivity in China's economic growth in the past two decades. We identify four main factors in the productivity growth: efficiency gain at the micro level; improvement in resource allocation; diffusion of technology through foreign direct investment; and improvement in infrastructure. We also argue that further state-owned enterprise and banking reforms, an emerging entrepreneurial class and greater research and development efforts are additional driving forces for the medium to long-term total factor productivity growth in China.     

市场化进程与资本配置效率的改善

改革开放以后,我国市场化进程进一步加快,经过近十年的改革,我国经济的市场化程度已经显著提高。市场化改革对我国的经济发展带来了什么效应?是否提高了资本配置效率,进而促进了经济增长?本文借鉴Wurgler(2000)的资本配置效率估算模型,研究我国市场化进程对资本配置效率的影响。研究发现,随着市场化进程的深入,我国资本配置的效率有所改善。     

经济增长的技术进步效率研究:1978-2000

利用索洛模型法估算出我国1978-2010年间全要素生产率的增长率,并依据估算结果对我国全要素生产率增长和经济增长动因作简要分析,以考察经济增长中的技术进步效率。分析结果表明,1978年以来我国的改革开放政策卓有成效,技术进步效率为经济增长作出了很大贡献,其在总产出中的贡献率为32。96%,仅次于资本投入对经济增长的贡献率,比劳动投入贡献率高。另外,我国全要素生产率增长对经济增长的贡献率比较适中,这与我国当前经济发展阶段较为适应,符合经济增长方式转变的阶段性规律。     

China’s economic reforms and growth prospects

Conventional wisdom attributes China’s rapid economic growth to its model of state capitalism, which combines direct state ownership of the commanding heights of the economy and indirect state control of the rest of the economy through industrial policies and the allocation of credit through state-owned banks. This article argues that China’s growth since 1978 is largely due to the result of the expanding role of markets and the rise of private business. If China systematically adopts the economic reform agenda endorsed by the Chinese Communist Party in the fall of 2013, it likely will avoid a sustained period of much slower growth that some have forecast.     

The quality of human capital,educational reform and economic growth

Using a general equilibrium growth model with a costly schooling process, this paper analyses the effect on economic growth of educational reform that allocates more resources to the schooling sector to raise the quality of human capital. It shows that the positive effect of improved quality on the economic growth could be offset by the reverse effect of reduced human capital formation that arises from the distortion of resource reallocation. An appropriate tax-subsidy scheme is shown to remove this reverse effect of educational reform.     

Financial deregulation,credit allocation across sectors,and economic growth: evidence from China

This paper investigates whether financial deregulation causes economic growth through financial development. Financial development is measured by two channels: (1) changes in the allocation of credit across sectors, and (2) changes in savings and investment rates. We measure financial deregulation in China at the provincial level from 1981 to 1998. Our results suggest that financial reform causes economic growth in China. Further, its effect largely comes through the reallocation of credit across sectors, rather than changes in savings and investment rates.     

结构改革与中国工业增长

1978年以来,中国工业在持续的结构改革中经历了强劲的增长和生产率水平的不断提高。本文估算了工业分行业随机前沿生产函数,发现1992年后,TFP增长超过了要素投入增长,但是TFP对工业增长的贡献在2001年后出现了下降。进一步对TFP增长分解后发现,由工业结构改革引致的行业间要素重置显然对改革开放期间中国工业生产率的提高乃至工业增长起到了实际推动作用,即结构红利是显著存在的,而2001年后要素配置效率的下降也成为同期TFP增长贡献份额下降的主要原因。因素回归分析显示,中国要素市场的改革和工业行业的结构调整主导了要素配置效率变化的总体走势,并造成了不同行业要素配置效率的显著差异。     

从要素市场化看供给侧改革的中长期实践路径*——基于随机前沿模型增长核算的分析

本文从要素市场化角度分析中国供给侧改革的中长期实践路径。从经济增长核算的角度出发,本文基于2005—2013年全国分省面板数据,通过超越对数生产函数形式的随机前沿模型测算经济增长来源并分解全要素生产率,发现TFP是非农经济增长的主要来源。然而TFP分解中技术效率偏低,且逐年下降,成为阻碍TFP增长以及经济增长的一大桎梏,而要素市场扭曲是技术效率项偏低的重要原因。促进要素市场化能够推进要素向高效企业流动,进而提高社会整体生产效率水平,本文认为,这是中国供给侧结构性改革的中长期实践路径。     

中国全要素生产率的估算:1979—2004

本文在分析比较了全要素生产率四种估算方法的基础上,估算出我国1979—2004年间的全要素生产率增长率,并对我国全要素生产率增长和经济增长源泉做了简要分析。分析表明(1)1993年以前,我国的全要素生产率增长率总体呈现出涨跌互现的波动情形且波动较为剧烈频繁,1993年以来,则呈现出逐年下降趋势,直到2000年才得以缓解,此后全要素生产率增长率总体呈现出逐年攀升势头;(2)1979—2004年间我国全要素生产率增长率及其对经济增长的贡献率较低,表明我国经济增长主要依赖于要素投入增长,是一种较为典型的投入型增长方式;(3)我国全要素生产率增长率较低的原因在于技术进步率偏低、生产能力没有得到充分利用、技术效率低下和资源配置不尽合理。