国际社会的贫困理论与减贫战略研究

贫困是世界著名的3P问题之一。作为一种特定的社会经济现象,贫困是全球面临的共同难题。二次世界大战后至今,国际社会为减少及消除贫困做出了积极的贡献,并提出了如人类发展指数、人类贫困指数和千年发展目标这样的有关贫困的理论及国际减贫目标。本文从国际社会的角度出发,对贫困理论以及减贫战略进行了详细研究,并在国际社会制订减贫战略及政策方面提出了几点建议。     

Australian Poverty Quantified by a Family-Based Poverty Index*

We postulate a family-based poverty index (JD) possessing focus, symmetry, monotonicity and decomposability properties commonly required of individualistic indexes. JD also satisfies reformulated distribution and transfer sensitivity axioms which take account of differences between families in their sizes and poverty lines. We introduce a new axiom, substitution sensitivity, which is satisfied by JD but not by the well-known FGT index. Using JD, we describe Australian poverty in the 1980s. We find that head-count ratios and average income gaps dominate the explanation of differences in poverty across family types and across time. Differences in the distributions of poor incomes make minor contributions.     

长期多维贫困、不平等与致贫因素

本文利用Alkire&Foster(2011)多维贫困测度方法和Foster(2009)的持续时间分析法,构建了长期多维贫困与平均贫困持续时间指数,以CHNS数据为样本从静态和动态双重视角分析了我国的长期多维贫困程度,并通过多层回归模型探讨了致贫的宏微观因素。研究发现:长期多维贫困指数不仅能测度家庭贫困程度,还能反映贫困家庭平均贫困持续时间;相比城市家庭,农村家庭长期多维贫困发生率更高,但随着贫困持续时间的延长,城乡贫困家庭的平均被剥夺深度出现了明显的逆转,城市贫困家庭的贫困程度相对于农村更为严重;户籍制度能解释城乡家庭长期多维贫困发生率差异的43%,且能解释城乡贫困家庭的贫困不平等程度的17%;家庭的户主特征、社会关系、人口规模与结构、户籍制度等因素对长期多维贫困发生率及不平等有显著影响。     

扶贫标准上调与扶贫开发机制创新

2009年我国执行新的扶贫标准——农民年人均纯收入1196元,对农村低收入人口全面实施扶贫政策。这引发了我国扶贫战略、扶贫对象、扶贫出发点和扶贫任务的重大转变,标志着我国扶贫开发事业进入新阶段。该文认为应进一步创新扶贫开发机制,突出扶贫对象瞄准,突出扶贫产业集群化发展,突出"大扶贫"格局,突出完善金融性扶贫机制,从而全面提高扶贫开发成效。     

Unit-Consistent Poverty Indices

This paper characterizes unit-consistent poverty indices. The unit consistency axiom requires that poverty rankings (not poverty indices) remain unaffected when all incomes and the poverty lines are expressed in different measuring units. We consider two general frameworks of poverty measurement: the semi-individualistic framework that includes all decomposable indices and all rank-based indices; and the Dalton–Hagenaars framework that contains a subset of decomposable indices. Within the semi-individualistic framework, classes of unit-consistent poverty indices can be characterized for different value judgements about poverty measurement. Within the Dalton-Hagenaars framework, unit-consistent poverty indices are completely characterized without invoking any value judgement a priori. I thank Peter Lambert, Mike Hoy, Thesia Garner and an anonymous referee for their very helpful comments and suggestions.     

现阶段农村贫困群体贫困原因分析

现阶段农村贫困群体贫困原因主要有农村贫困群体老弱病残身体、家庭状况和能力等自身原因,此外还有劳动寻求不足和再就业机会缺失、农村基础设施薄弱、资金性贫困、社会资本缺乏、公共政策实施中的问题等原因。     

贫困的合理性与贫困救助过程中的负功能分析

转型期社会机制不完善，制度安排还不是很合理，贫困在社会中存在是普遍的，而且它的存在也有一定的合理性，但并不说明支持贫困的存在，不需要救助，只是贫困对社会的发展有一定的功能。而是说在救助过程中存在着违背初衷的现象，即贫困的社会救助中存在着负效应。例如，出现了贫困陷阱、福利依赖等现象。贫困问题的真正解决之道在于给贫困者“增能”，而非救助。     

Poverty Dynamics in Turkey

This paper examines poverty dynamics in Turkey using a nationally representative panel data covering the 2005–08 period. The aim is to understand mobility in and out of poverty and its correlates. We find that almost a quarter of the poor are persistently poor. The conditional and unconditional exit rates that we estimate are within the range of values reported for developed countries in the literature. That the income events—but not transfers—dominate both poverty entries and exits is indicative of the major role labor markets play in the lives of the poor. In particular, we argue that given the characteristics of the poor and modest levels of social assistance, the reason for mobility rates close to European averages must be sought in the informal economy.     

Poverty and Witch Killing

This study uses rainfall variation to estimate the impact of income shocks on murder in rural Tanzania. Extreme rainfall (drought or flood) leads to a large increase in the murder of „witches”—typically elderly women killed by relatives—but not other murders. The findings provide novel evidence on the role of income shocks in causing violent crime, and religious violence in particular.     

经济学的现代主义贫困——经济学数学化的哲学思考

经济学数学化促进了经济学的发展,同时也让经济学付出了沉重的代价。经济学要使用数学,但要坚持方法的多元化,数学只是其中之一,如此经济学才能向经济学本身回归。     

Poverty Among Young Australians

In this article the incidence of poverty among the young is explained in terms of their labour force experience, educational attainment, gender, and living arrangements. The availability of the Australian Longitudinal Survey data enables the incomes of individuals to be related to many other socioeconomic variables over a number of years.
Generally the poor do not have high levels of education. About half of those classified as poor, endured a poverty spell of one year. But less than five per cent of the poor were so in each of the four survey years. Many of the poor were studying. Their low current incomes were presumably endured in the anticipation of high future earnings. The young women who were poor, many with children, were typically living in households offering them no additional financial support.     

Decomposing Vulnerability to Poverty

This paper applies the decomposition of the Foster–Greer–Thorbecke poverty index to the measurement of individual vulnerability to poverty. I highlight that poverty risk can be expressed as a function of expected incidence, expected intensity, and expected variability below the poverty line, three essential aspects for improving the design of appropriate risk‐management policies. An empirical illustration is provided using the British Household Panel Survey and the Italian Survey on Household Income and Wealth.     

Poverty Intensity in Australia

Even though poverty indices with axiomatically sound properties have been advocated for several decades, most empirical studies of poverty in Australia and elsewhere continue to use the crude, but easily understood, head-count ratio. The difficulty of interpreting the axiomatically more desirable indices is a major reason why their use has been resisted in applied poverty measurement. This paper demonstrates how the more sophisticated poverty indices can be converted into a form that is readily interpreted as a measure of poverty intensity of a group, relative to the population to which the group belongs. The resulting poverty-intensity index is easy to understand and it retains the axiomatic properties of the poverty index on which it is based. We apply the method to Australian data. Poverty measures reported previously in the literature are converted into measures of poverty intensity and interpreted accordingly. We also calculate and interpret some new measures of poverty and poverty intensity using the 1996–97 Income and Housing Costs Survey, Australia (Australian Bureau of Statistics 1997). It is hoped our procedure will lead to wider use of poverty indices that are theoretically superior to the head-count ratio.     

Geography and Poverty Traps

We test the view that the large differences in income levels we see across the world are due to differences in the intrinsic geography of each country against the alternative view that there are poverty traps. We reject simple geographic determinism in favor of a poverty trap model with high- and low-level equilibria. The high-level equilibrium state is found to be the same for all countries while income in the low-level equilibrium, and the probability of being in the high-level equilibrium, are greater in cool, coastal countries with high, year-round, rainfall.