A BUFFER STOCK MODEL OF THE DEMAND FOR MONEY BY THE PERSONAL SECTOR

This paper examines the forward-looking rational expectations buffer stock model of Cuthbertson and Taylor (1987) in the context of the personal sector of the UK. The buffer stock model is evaluated for both narrow and broad money definitions in the UK using the encompassing the VAR methodology of Mizon (1984). This suggests that the buffer stock model is a congruent model, and that the broad definition is the most appropriate aggregate with which to model buffering behaviour — in line with previous studies, Mizen (1992). Further analysis of the models, in the light of Hendry (1988), confirms this view.     

组合预测模型在区域物流需求预测中的应用

针对单一预测方法用于区域物流需求量预测存在的不足,文章提出了基于预测有效度的组合预测模型,即通过组合多个单一模型的预测结果,发挥各自的优点,提高预测的精确度。以广东省江门市为例,分别采用线性回归模型、灰色GM(1,1)模型和组合预测模型对其物流需求量进行了预测,实证结果表明区域物流需求组合预测模型能够取得更高的预测精度。     

THE RISK‐FREE RATE IN A FINITE HORIZON MODEL WITH BEQUESTS

This paper studies the risk‐free rate in an overlapping generations economy with bequests. It is shown that the risk‐free rate depends on risk aversion, the elasticity of intertemporal substitution, the share of wealth invested in human wealth, life expectancy, and the preference for bequests. In a standard life‐cycle context, mortality increases the subjective time rate of discount, and thus increases the compensation required to postpone consumption. This latter effect is offset in a bequest‐driven model of the type considered here, leading to much more powerful income effects. In this sense, the model provides a bequest‐motive explanation for the risk‐free rate puzzle put forward by Weil in 1989.     

具有行业和区域特征的中国创新活动模型

利用Panel Data模型对1998—2002年间中国各省(西藏除外)14个最具有创新能力的行业数据进行分析,结果表明,企业自身的研发能力、相关企业的集聚、学校研发的成果与能力以及研发中介机构等区域创新技术基础要素的地理集中在创新过程中起着基础作用。不同区域创新技术基础要素对创新的影响程度不同。同时,区域创新技术基础要素之间也存在相互作用,这种交流进一步促进了创新的发展。     

华中旅游圈的空间结构模式及发展战略研究

旅游资源分布的区域性决定了旅游活动的差异性,以城市为核心形成旅游地域系统是现代旅游业发展的一个典型特征。本文以点轴发展理论和圈层空间结构理论为指导,对华中旅游圈的空间结构模式和发展战略进行了研究。     

THE AD-AS MODEL AND ITS SOLUTIONS: SOME NEW RESULTS IN A DISEQUILIBRIUM PERSPECTIVE*

This paper discusses the logical foundation and the solutions of a microfounded aggregate demand … aggregate supply model under the disequilibrium hypothesis. We first show that a) the latter hypothesis is the only one ensuring model consistent expectations and that b) price predetermination, more than price flexibility, should be embodied in an AD-AS framework. Then we develop a full AD-AS scheme, both under excess supply and excess demand for labour. We prove that in the latter case no well defined equilibrium exists. Finally, we discuss stability and perform some comparative statics exercises.     

THE MEASUREMENT OF CAPITAL THROUGH A FIXED ASSET ACCOUNTING SIMULATION MODEL (FAASM)

In this article the author describes a method of estimating the capital stock of the corporate sector which is being developed at Statistics Canada. The method uses a "Fixed Asset Accounting Simulation Model" or FAASM. FAASM provides estimates of the capital stock by inferring the actual service lives of fixed assets, and using these with price indexes to revalue assets on a constant price basis. FAASM is thus an alternative to the widely used Perpetual Inventory Method. By also inferring accounting lives using the depreciation accounts, it has other important outputs. These latter get only passing mention here. Since FAASM exploits the available data in a comprehensive, systematic way, its service life and capital stock estimates may eventually, after system development and improvement in operation, approach the limits of attainable accuracy.     

THE LEAD–LAG RELATION BETWEEN THE S&P500 SPOT AND FUTURES MARKETS: AN INTRADAY-DATA ANALYSIS USING A THRESHOLD REGRESSION MODEL

In this paper we examine the lead–lag interaction between the futures and spot markets of the S&P500 using the threshold regression model on intraday data. The use of threshold variables to model the changes in the regression structure with respect to different market conditions enables us to investigate the lead–lag interaction in a data-based approach and avoid stratifying the data arbitrarily. Using the basis as the threshold variable, we find that the short-selling restrictions in the spot market reduce the effect of the spot index as the leading variable. To study the effect of market-wide information on the interaction between the spot and futures markets, we use the coefficient of determination in the regression of the S&P500 on the Morgan–Stanley Composite Index-US and the Major Market Index as the threshold variable. We find that the lead effect of the futures market over the spot market is stronger when there is more market-wide information. On the other hand, the lead effect of the cash market over the futures market is weaker when there is more market-wide information. In addition, we also use the lagged 45-min return of the spot market as the threshold variable. We find that the lead effect of the spot market is stronger in periods of directionless trading than in periods of good or bad markets.     

SATELLITE TELEVISION AND THE DEMAND FOR FOOTBALL: A WHOLE NEW BALL GAME?

A recent development in the UK television industry has been the emergence of satellite coverage of sporting events. This paper examines the relationship between broadcasting and football, culminating in the 1992 joint BBC and BSkyB contract to televise the English Premier League. A demand function is estimated which exteds the familiar model of attendance to incorporate television together with quadratic functions. We find that, although live transmission reduces attendance, the net financial consequences are positive for Premier League teams. Moreover, significant estimators are found for the quadratic functions of pricel earnings, distance, seasonal trend and length of Premier League status.     

A NEW MULTIPLICATIVE DECOMPOSITION FOR THE FOSTER–GREER–THORBECKE POVERTY INDICES

This paper shows that Foster–Greer–Thorbecke poverty indices can be written as the product of components summarizing the incidence, intensity and inequality dimensions of poverty and provides an empirical illustration of the decomposition using Spanish household budget surveys data.     

TESTING FOR STATIONARITY WITH A BREAK IN PANELS WHERE THE TIME DIMENSION IS FINITE

In this paper, we consider the case of finite time dimension in the panel stationarity tests with structural breaks. By fixing T, the finite sample properties of the tests for both micro (T small and N large) and macro (both T and N large) panel data are generally greatly improved. More importantly, the derivation of the tests for finite T and , as opposed to joint asymptotic where N and simultaneously, avoids the imposition of the rate condition making the test valid for any (T, N) blend. Four models corresponding to the usual combination of breaks are considered. The asymptotic distributions of the test are derived under the null hypothesis and are shown to be normally distributed. Their moments for T fixed are derived analytically employing Ghazal’s corollary 1. The case with unknown breaks is also considered. The proposed tests have generally empirical sizes that are very close to the nominal size. The Monte Carlo simulations show that the power of the test statistics increases substantially with N and T.     

OUTPUT,PRODUCTIVITY AND WAGES IN THE BRITISH COAL INDUSTRY BEFORE 1914: A MODEL WITH EVIDENCE FROM THE DURHAM REGION*

This paper proposes a model of productivity and wages in the Durham coal industry during 1882–1914. The model predicts a negative relationship between wages and productivity which derives from the industrys production function and wage-setting arrange- ments and does not require or imply a ‘leisure preference’ by miners. It is also suggested that predicted effects of some variables on productivity are different from those proposed by previous investigators. Using modern time-series methods on data for output per worker and per shift, it is shown that the two measures essentially reflect predicted effects on output and productivity respectively.     

经济快速发展地区的农业与农村特点及发展问题——以长江三角洲、珠江三角洲为例

长江三角洲和珠江三角洲是我国经济发展最快的地区,其经济区位、自然条件、科技、教育、文化均有优势,被誉为中国经济发展的引擎,在我国现代化建设中的地位举足轻重。两大三角洲,先后对外开放,大量引进外资、先进技术设备与管理经验,产业结构不断调整,工业生产超常规发展,区域内部的城乡建设进展迅速。文章分析了农业经营方式与生产结构的变化以及工业化、城市化的特点,由此带来农业与农村前所未有的发展和变革,阐述了农业、农村所面临的挑战。