Developing a House Price Index for The Netherlands: A Practical Application of Weighted Repeat Sales

This paper describes the development of a house price index that has been introduced in May 2005 in The Netherlands. This monthly index, called Woningwaarde Index Kadaster (House Price Index Kadaster), is designed to detect changes in the price of the overall stock of owner-occupied homes. Fifty-five indices are calculated: one overall index, four regional indices, 12 provincial indices and 38 indices based on combinations of region/province and dwelling type. We used Case and Shiller’s geometric Weighted Repeat Sales Model to calculate monthly house price indices. We used recorded data on the sales of over 500,000 owner-occupied homes in The Netherlands, all representing repeat sales between January 1993 and December 2006. The accuracy of the index was determined using the 95% confidence interval. We observed that accuracy might become a problem in smaller sub samples. Revision volatility was explored by comparing the index values computed from all available data until December 2005 with the index values computed from the data available until December 2006. Our analysis showed that revision volatility does not seem to be a major problem to the index. We also explored heteroskedasticity in the Repeat Sales method but did not find conclusive evidence for the proposed heteroskedasticity. Given our target (a geometric mean index value) and the characteristics of the dataset (very large but without property characteristics) the Repeat Sales Method seems to be adequate for calculating a house price index for The Netherlands.

Short Holds,the Distributions of First and Second Sales,and Bias in the Repeat-Sales Price Index

The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics -     

Spatial Dependence and House Price Index Construction

Accurate estimation of prevailing metropolitan housing prices is important for both business and research investigations of housing and mortgage markets. This is typically done by constructing quality-adjusted house price indices from hedonic price regressions for given metropolitan areas. A major limitation of currently available indices is their insensitivity to the geographic location of dwellings within the metropolitan area. Indices are constructed based on models that do not incorporate the underlying spatial structure in housing data sets. In this article, we argue that spatial structure, especially spatial dependence latent in housing data sets, will affect the precision and accuracy of resulting price estimates. We illustrate the importance of spatial dependence in both the specification and estimation of hedonic price models. Assessments are made on the importance of spatial dependence both on parameter estimates and on the accuracy of resulting indices.     

Frequency of Transaction and House Price Modeling

This article examines the characteristics and price behavior of repeatedly transacted properties. Using data from four U.S. counties, we estimate hedonic price models of properties grouped by transaction frequency, and compare estimated standard deviations and estimated appreciation rates by group.For each of four counties studied, we find that estimated house price appreciation is systematically higher among properties that transact more frequently. One possible explanation for this result is that purchasers make property improvements that are not adequately reflected in the available data.We also find that estimated standard deviations of the disturbance term show a marked decrease as the frequency of transaction increases. Since frequently transacting properties are not found to be systematically more homogeneous than seldomly transacting properties, we do not attribute this to any increase in homogeneity for frequently transacting properties, but rather to the length of time elapsed between transactions of properties.The findings of this article suggest that repeat-sales price models may need to be adjusted to account for cross-sectional variation in transaction probabilities---that is, the selectivity of the subsample of properties that transacted (or transacted repeatedly) during any finite study period.     

Property Derivatives and Index-Linked Mortgages

Economists have forcefully argued for the introduction and use of property derivatives as a hedge against house price risk (e.g. Shiller and Weiss, J. Real Estate Finance Econ., 19(1):21–47, 1999). The rationale for these financial instruments seems clear, as many households are heavily invested in housing and standard financial instruments offer a poor hedge. In practice, however, most of the property derivatives available have been targeted to meet the needs of institutional investors, not those of owner-occupiers. Building on the recent launch of the first Swiss property derivative, we here propose index-linked mortgages tailored to retail consumers. The payments of these mortgages depend on the corresponding housing market performance. We further price the instruments, discuss the stabilization of the homeowner’s net wealth, and quantify the expected decrease in the mortgage default risk achieved by this immunization effect.

波动率风险及风险价格——来自中国A股市场的证据

本文应用Fama-Macbeth估计方法,以1997年2月至2009年6月中国A股股票为样本,考察股票市场波动率风险及其风险价格的特征。研究表明:波动率风险是一个显著的横截面定价因子,其风险价格为负,该结论不受流动性及市场偏度因子、待检资产改变、波动率模型设定的影响;在资产定价模型中引入波动率风险因子有利于解释规模效应和账面市值比效应异象。波动率的风险因子可以涵盖部分宏观经济变量的定价信息,规模因子是波动率风险因子的代理变量。     

Controlling for Quality in House Price Indices

Given the importance of house prices it is not surprising that house price indices are used for many purposes. One of the factors that differentiates these indices is the house price determinants (such as structural characteristics and neighborhood quality) that are accounted for—that is, held constant. Indices are usually generated from house price regressions. It is shown that, regardless of the desired level of accounting, it is necessary to control for all significant determinants of house prices in these regressions to obtain unbiased estimates of the growth in house prices. An empirical example shows that not controlling for neighborhood quality can lead to substantial biases in estimates of house price appreciation rates even if the index does not account for this factor.     

美国牲畜价格指数保险的经验及局限性

美国的牲畜价格指数保险是世界上最早产生且保险方案相对比较完善的农产品价格保险,它是美国将作物收入保险的经验向畜牧业延伸的结果。通过保险方案的设计和再保险安排,美国牲畜价格指数保险在解决农业价格保险可行性问题上取得了一定效果。相对于期货与期权工具,美国牲畜价格指数保险具有准入门槛和交易成本更低等优势,但也存在操作不够灵活等劣势,总体而言,更适合美国的中小规模生产者,而对大规模生产者吸引力较弱;且与期货与期权工具类似,美国牲畜价格指数保险只能提供年度内的价格风险保障,无法如美国的农产品计划项目那样提供跨年度的价格风险保障。从运行结果来看,美国的牲畜价格指数保险的承保规模较小,且没有发展成为美国占主导地位的价格风险管理工具的趋势。美国牲畜价格指数保险的经验及局限性对中国具有如下启示:错开农产品价格保险的承保期间;建立农产品价格保险再保险制度;探索多种政策可能性管理农产品价格风险。     

Three New Real Estate Price Indices for Geneva,Switzerland

This paper develops constant-quality price indices for three categories of real estate-apartment buildings, vacant land, and condominiums—for the city of Geneva, Switzerland. We use both the hedonic and repeat sales models to estimate the price level and, in turn, the rate of price change. The general pattern of each series suggests that real estate prices in Geneva were fairly stable throughout the 1970s, increased sharply during the 1980s, but gave back some of these gains in the early 1990s. Interestingly, the sharp rise in prices in the second half of the 1980s is very similar to that found in some regions of the United States. We also consider the problem, implicit in the repeat sales method, of revisions in previously estimated price indices as additional data become available in later years.     

Margins and Price Limits in Taiwan's Stock Index Futures Market

This study extends the framework of Brennan (1986) to find the cost-minimizing combination of spot limits, futures limits, and margins for stock and index futures in the Taiwan market. Our empirical results show that the cost-minimization combination of margins, spot price limits, and futures price limits is 7 percent, 6 percent, and 6 percent, respectively, when the index level is less than 7,000. When the index level ranges from 7,000 to 9,000, the efficient futures contract calls for a combination of 6.5 percent, 5 percent, and 6 percent. The optimal margin, reneging probability, and corresponding contract cost are less than those without price limits. Price limits may partially substitute for margin requirements in ensuring contract performance, with a default risk lower than the 0.3 percent rate that is accepted by the Taiwan Futures Exchange. On the other hand, though imposing equal price limits of 7 percent on both the spot and futures markets does not coincide with the efficient contract design, it does have a lower contract cost and margin requirement (7.75 percent) than that without imposing price limits (8.25 percent).     

House Price Markups and Mortgage Defaults

The transaction price of identical housing units can vary widely due to heterogeneity in buyer and seller preferences, matching, and search costs, generating what we term “markups” above or below the average market price. We measure markups for 3.4 million purchase-money mortgages and show that they can predict mortgage defaults and credit losses conditional on default even after accounting for collateral coverage (loan-to-value ratio) and a comprehensive set of other covariates. The findings suggest that standard collateral coverage estimation may be inaccurate, with implications for both individual and portfolio-level credit risk assessment.     

The Construction of Residential Housing Price Indices: A Comparison of Repeat-Sales,Hedonic-Regression,and Hybrid Approaches

This article examines a number of hypotheses that underpin the repeat-sales and hedonic approaches to the construction of housing price indices, as well as the practical problems associated with the implementation of either approach. We also examine a hybrid procedure that combines elements of both the repeat-sales and hedonic-regression techniques. For our sample of individual home sales in Oakland and Fremont California over an 18-year period, repeat-sales methods are subject to sample selection bias; the maintained assumption of time constancy of implicit prices of housing attributes is violated; the repeat-sales estimator is extremely sensitive to influential observations; and the usual method used to correct for heteroskedasticity in repeat-sale housing returns is inappropriate in our sample. Hedonic techniques are better suited to contend with index number problems per se, as they can accommodate changing attribute prices over time. They also appear to give rise to more reliable estimates of price indices, as unusual observations have less effect on estimated price indices. Drawbacks of the hedonic approach include the usual concern with omitted attributes, and their effect on the estimated price index.     

Home Price Risk, Local Market Shocks, and Index Hedging

All real estate markets are local, or so the conventional wisdom goes. But just how local is local? I address this question empirically using over 75,000 repeat-sales transactions from a large suburban county of Washington D.C.. I construct and evaluate a variety of local home price indices defined by geography, price, and home type. I also calculate ??house-specific?? indices using locally weighted regressions with maximized kernel bandwidths. On the whole, local indices add a moderate amount of explanatory power relative to metropolitan indices. In my sample, the metropolitan index explains 50?C75% of the variation in home price shocks, and local indices add 3?C7% more. In an index hedging framework, homeowners should be willing to pay 5?C10% to hedge with a local index versus a metropolitan index alone.     

School Quality, House Prices and Liquidity

This paper develops an empirical framework for taking into account the effects of endogenous liquidity on price capitalization estimates. Changes in school attendance zones in the East Baton Rouge Parish public school district provide a natural experiment for studying how changes in school characteristics affect house prices and liquidity. House price and selling time, or liquidity, are simultaneously determined in search markets. The empirical model exploits variation in the surrounding neighborhood market conditions pertinent to each house to identify the system of price and liquidity equations. The estimates are consistent with search-market theory in that liquidity absorbs part of the capitalization of school quality.

收入差距、信贷约束与房价变动

本文通过构建一个异质性代理人模型,刻画了收入差距通过信贷渠道影响房价的作用机制。研究表明,收入差距的缩小提升了低收入者的收入占比,使该类人群获得了更多的外部融资进行购房,由此产生了两方面效应:(1)信贷约束放松降低了住房流动性溢价,从而对房价产生负向影响;(2)收入上涨增加了住房边际效用较高的低收入者对房价正向影响的权重,从而使住房需求上升的效应抵消了此前的负向影响,最终促进房价上涨。通过对1970-2017年44个国家的进一步分析发现,相比于高收入者收入的下降,低收入者收入占比的上升在放松信贷约束和提升房价方面具有更显著的作用。据此本文认为:一方面要通过增加住房供给来化解城市化率提升与高房价之间的内在矛盾;另一方面,在经济增速放缓的时期,缩小收入差距,推动以“人”为核心的高质量城市化,并引导信贷资源向低收入群体倾斜是当前促进国内大循环、稳定社会融资规模和房地产市场的重要手段。     

国际石油价格波动对中国股票市场的风险溢出效应

由于交易时间上的不对称,采用非对称性调整方法对上证指数进行了滞后1期的调整,在此基础上,对非对称性调整前后的数据分别采用了Granger因果关系检验、向量自回归(VAR)模型、脉冲响应函数(IRF)、预测误差方差分解(FEVD)的方法以及MGARCH-BEKK(1,1)模型对纽约商业交易所(NYMEX)的西德克萨斯州中质油现货价格日对数收益率和上证指数日对数收益率之间的均值溢出效应和波动率溢出效应进行分析研究。研究结果表明,总体来说,两市收益率之间的风险溢出效应十分微弱和不稳定,但从2007年开始,这种风险溢出效应变得更显著,主要表现在WTI原油市场对上证指数具有正的均值溢出效应和正的波动率溢出效应。     

次贷危机、信息不对称和指数交易

次贷危机源于房价上涨停滞后的次贷及其衍生品市场的快速萎缩,信息不对称在危机爆发前风险累积阶段和危机后市场过度反应阶段都是关键因素.次贷及其衍生产品设计繁复且对房价系统性下跌高度敏感,次贷的衍生产品多在场外市场交易使得危机前相关信息未被充分披露.随着指数交易的陆续推出,如基于次债的ABX.HE指数和CME的房地产价格指数期货期权合约,使房价、次贷及其衍生产品的概括性信息得以揭示,基于信息不对称因素的恐慌加重了危机程度.综上,本文针对衍生品设计和市场的完善提出了建议.     

货币政策、流动性不足与个股暴跌风险

本文以2004-2012年中国A股上市公司为研究样本,研究货币政策是否影响个股暴跌风险,以及基金和个股流动性不足对货币政策效果的影响。研究结果表明:(1)货币政策紧缩会显著增加个股的暴跌风险;(2)基金流动性不足和个股流动性不足会显著增加紧缩货币政策对股价暴跌风险的影响;(3)其他机构投资者能够缓解紧缩货币政策以及基金流动性不足对股价暴跌风险的影响。本文丰富了股价暴跌风险研究,同时对于货币政策制定及流动性管理有一定的现实意义。     

The Relationship Between Energy Commodity Prices and Electricity and Market Index Performances: Evidence from an Emerging Market

We investigate the effect of energy commodity price movements on market and electricity index returns in Turkey for the periods before, during, and after the year 2008. Although the Turkish economy is highly reliant on oil, we find that oil price does not lead either electricity or market indexes. This might be attributable to sluggish integration of financial markets in Turkey compared to developed markets. Natural gas price leads electricity index in the pre-2008 period. Its significance is reduced following the decline in natural gas usage in electricity production. This suggests that commodity dependence may be driving the link between commodity and asset prices in related sectors.     

沪深300股指期货与现货市场的非线性信息溢出与价格发现功能研究

采用线性与非线性Granger因果检验、协整检验和VECM模型,研究了沪深300股指期货和现货市场的线性与非线性信息溢出,并检验了期货市场的价格发现功能发挥情况。研究结果显示:线性信息溢出方面,沪深300股指期货市场对现货市场只有线性均值信息溢出,现货市场对期货市场只存在线性方差信息溢出;非线性信息溢出方面,两个市场之间不存在非线性均值信息溢出,不过二者之间存在显著的非线性方差信息溢出;沪深300股指期、现货市场之间存在着长期均衡的关系,不过不同于成熟市场中期货市场在价格发现方面居于主导地位的结论,我国股指现货市场在价格发现方面占主导地位,而期货市场处于从属地位。