Trading activity and price discovery in Bitcoin futures markets

This study examines the impact of trading activities on price discovery in the Bitcoin futures markets. We find that trades of hedgers are positively correlated with the modified information shares in both CME and CBOE futures markets, suggesting that their trading promotes futures market efficiency. Retailers’ trading activity relates negatively to the price discovery of the CME Bitcoin futures and thus destabilizes the market. Speculators exert positive (negative) impact on the price discovery in the CME (CBOE) Bitcoin futures. Our finding that CME’s Bitcoin futures exhibit superior price discovery than CBOE’s provides plausible justification for CBOE’s decision in March 2019 to suspend further listings of Bitcoin futures contracts.     

Trading activities and price discovery in foreign currency futures markets

This study investigates the relation between trading activities and the price discovery efficacy of the futures markets for EUR–USD and JPY–USD. According to data pertaining to weekly positions, collected from the Commitments of Traders reports distributed by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the information share of currency futures markets declines with hedgers’ positions but increases with speculators’ positions. In addition, both hedgers’ expected and unexpected positions have negative impacts on the contribution of the futures market; the futures market’s information share relates positively to speculators’ expected positions but is uncorrelated with speculators’ unexpected positions.     

Trading frequency and the efficiency of price discovery in a non-dealer market

The increasing popularity of non-dealer security markets that offer automated, computer-based, continuous trading reflects a presumption that institutionally-set trading sessions are economically obsolete. This theoretical paper investigates the effect of the trading frequency, a key feature of the trading mechanism, on the efficiency of price discovery in a non-dealer market. By tracing the market pricing error to the correlation structures of arriving information and pricing errors of individual traders, the effect of diverging expectations on error-based and overall return volatility is isolated. The analysis reveals that, due to a portfolio effect, an increase in the trading time interval has contradictory effects on the portion of return volatility stemming from pricing errors. The greater accumulation of information increases error-based return volatility, but the greater volume and number of traders per session have the opposite effect. The net effect on overall return volatility can go either way. It is found that the return volatility of heavily traded securities is likely to be minimized under continuous trading, but that of thinly traded securities may be minimized under discrete trading at moderate time intervals. The latter is more likely to occur the greater is the divergence of expectations among traders. These findings challenge the presumption that automated continuous trading in a non-dealer market is more efficient than discrete trading for all securities, regardless of trading volume. The findings are applicable to all economies, but have special importance for developing countries where typically a single market is dominated by small issues and a low volume of trade. As a by-product of the analysis, it is shown how to correct the biased estimate of inter-session price volatility when observations are less frequent than the trading sessions themselves.     

Dynamic price discovery

This article analyzes the dynamic process of price discovery in a competitive securities market where investors are equally informed about the fundamental determinants of an asset's end-of-period value but, because they do not know each other's wealth positions, do not know the equilibrium price of shares at the start of a current trading session. Because a large number of participants is assumed, issues concerning market impact and market manipulation are avoided. As trading progresses, participants update their expectations of an asset's equilibrium value. As they do so, price can either converge to a new level or, following a run, revert back to a previous level. This implies that, in clusters of adjacent prices, price changes are more apt to be predominantly of like sign (positive or negative) than would be the case under random walk with a bid-ask spread. Moreover, reversals, when they do occur, should be larger than continuations. An examination of 1988 transactions data for the 30 Dow Jones Industrial stocks shows that this is indeed the case. With the effect of the bid-ask spread removed, first-order autocorrelation coefficients are found to be positive.     

Financial analysts and price discovery

We show that whether or not a bank/brokerage firm has top‐rated financial analysts and high Wall Street Search rankings for their research is significantly related to that firm's contribution to price discovery, the process by which information is incorporated into stock prices. Our study relates cross‐sectional characteristics of the quality of brokerage research, the asymmetric information environment, and order flow volume to a microstructure measure of price discovery developed by Granger and Gonzalo. We measure analysts’ research quality with an industry‐specific ranking by institutional investors, with an opinion survey of trading desk personnel, and with the number of top 3 analysts across all industries employed by the bank/brokerage firm.     

Adverse selection costs,trading activity and price discovery in the NYSE: An empirical analysis

This paper studies the role that trading activity plays in the price discovery process of a NYSE-listed stock. We measure the expected information content of each trade by estimating its permanent price impact. It depends on observable trade features and market conditions. We also estimate the time required for quotes to incorporate all the information content of a particular trade. Our results show that price discovery is faster after risky trades and also at the extreme intervals of the session. The quote adjustment to trade-related shocks is progressive and this causes risk persistency and unusual short-term market conditions.     

Information flow and price discovery dynamics

Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting - Non-homogeneous and time-varying information flow that affects the price discovery processes within and across markets is a common occurrence in...     

Latency,liquidity and price discovery

The speed of trading is an important factor in modern security markets, although relatively little is known about the effect of speed on liquidity and price discovery, two important aspects of market quality. On April 23, 2007, Deutsche Boerse made an important upgrade to their trading system. With the 8.0 release of Xetra, system latency was reduced from 50 ms to 10 ms. Subsequently, both quoted and effective spreads decreased, which are mainly concentrated in small- and medium-sized stocks. This increase in liquidity is due to dramatically lower adverse selection costs that were only partially translated into higher liquidity. We interpret this as a decrease in the competition between liquidity suppliers who are able to increase their revenues by more than 90 million euros. The contribution of quotes to price discovery doubles to 90% post upgrade, indicating that prices are more efficient.     

Trading costs, liquidity, and asset holdings

In this article I develop a model that accounts for interdependencebetween trading costs in various asset markets arising fromthe optimizing behavior of liquidity traders. The model suggeststhat noise trading is an important determinant of the liquidityof asset markets and provides a positive theory for diversifiedasset holdings by risk-neutral liquidity traders.     

Trading activity and price reversals in futures markets

We use the standard contrarian portfolio approach to examine short-horizon return predictability in 24 US futures markets. We find strong evidence of weekly return reversals, similar to the findings from equity market studies. When interacting between past returns and lagged changes in trading activity (volume and/or open interest), we find that the profits to contrarian portfolio strategies are, on average, positively associated with lagged changes in trading volume, but negatively related to lagged changes in open interest. We also show that futures return predictability is more pronounced if interacting between past returns and lagged changes in both volume and open interest. Our results suggest that futures market overreaction exists, and both past prices and trading activity contain useful information about future market movements. These findings have implications for futures market efficiency and are useful for futures market participants, particularly commodity pool operators.     

The speed of stock price discovery

We develop closed-form expressions for the path and speed of stock price discovery in a utility-based CAPM with wealth effects. Two investors with uniquely bounded risk-preferences always apply opposite portfolio rebalancing trades. These trades determine the intra-period path and speed of price discovery in a Walrasian, tâtonnement setup. While conditions for maximum speed exist, convergence is rapid over a wide range of endowments and preferences. Convergence to equilibrium is exponential, and its speed depends on endowments, risk-preferences, firm size, and market price for risk. Convergence is not guaranteed, and the conditions for divergence are specified.     

The financial econometrics of price discovery and predictability

This article reviews recent econometric developments in the literature on price discovery and predictability. For both areas, we discuss traditional approaches to econometric modeling, limitations to these approaches, and recent developments designed to overcome them. We also discuss the state of the art and suggest future research. Three main conclusions are drawn. First, while many recent empirical applications in price discovery and price predictability are on the frontier of econometric methods, further developments are needed to increase relaxation of relevant assumptions and push the boundaries of applications. Second, future research in econometric modeling needs to combine/synthesize recent developments across multiple econometric issues, rather than proceeding in a piecemeal manner, for instance, by integrating developments in the time series literature into panel-based frameworks. Third, recent econometric literature is generating findings that challenge long-held beliefs about apparent empirical regularities in price discovery and price predictability, thus presenting opportunities to develop relevant theory.     

Stock price effects and costs of secondary distributions

This study does not support the view that a large number of shares can be sold at the prevailing market price and at a small cost. A significant stock price decrease is observed at the initial announcement of secondary distributions. The price declines are greater for offerings by officers and directors and for larger offerings, but are significant for all types of sellers and for large and small offerings. There is no significant price decline at the offering when secondaries are announced in advance. Underwriting and other selling costs are substantial and are positively related to relative offering size.     

Trading imbalances,predictable reversals,and cross-stock price pressure

We test the implications of a multi-asset equilibrium model in which a finite number of risk-averse liquidity providers accommodate non-informational trading imbalances. These imbalances generate predictable reversals in stock returns. An imbalance in one stock also affects the prices of other stocks. The magnitude of the cross-stock price pressure depends on the correlations of the stocks’ underlying cash flows. The model implies that non-informational trading increases the volatility of stock returns. We confirm the model's implications using data from the Taiwan Stock Exchange.     

The impact of sentiment on price discovery

We study how investor sentiment affects the speed with which prices reflect information. Price discovery is more timely for firms with greater sensitivity to sentiment, as measured by a sentiment beta. Our research improves our understanding of the price formation process when sentiment is not assumed to be constant. Our research design is novel as it considers a sentiment beta as well as economy‐wide sentiment. This provides more comprehensive evidence on the impact of differing types of sentiment on the price formation process.     

A structural analysis of price discovery measures

We analyze the structural determinants of two widely used measures of price discovery between multiple markets that trade closely related securities. Using a structural cointegration model, we show that both the information share (IS) and component share (CS) measures account for the relative avoidance of noise trading and liquidity shocks, but that only the IS can provide information on the relative informativeness of individual markets. In particular, the IS of one market is higher if it incorporates more new information and/or impounds less liquidity shocks. Use of the CS in conjunction with the IS can help sort out the confounding effects of the two types of shocks. Furthermore, we find that the IS only accounts for the immediate (one-period) responses of market prices to the news innovation, which implies that the IS estimates based on high sampling frequencies may be distorted by transitory frictions and may miss important price discovery dynamics.     

Using price distributions to estimate search costs

We show how the equilibrium restrictions implied by standard search models can be used to estimate search‐cost distributions using price data alone. We consider both sequential and non‐sequential search strategies, and develop estimation methodologies that exploit equilibrium restrictions to recover estimates of search‐cost heterogeneity that are theoretically consistent with the search models. We illustrate the method using online prices for several economics and statistics textbooks.     

Local investors,price discovery,and market efficiency

This study examines the effect of locally informed investors on market efficiency and stock prices using large power outages, which are exogenous events that constrain trading. Turnover in stocks headquartered in an outage area with 0.5% of U.S. electrical customers drops by 3–7% on the first full day of the outage, and bid–ask spreads narrow by 2.5%. Firm-specific price volatility is 2.3% lower on blackout dates. This effect is larger for smaller, lesser-known stocks and in higher income areas. Consistent with a valuation discount and higher expected returns for stocks with more informed traders, firms with a one-standard-deviation higher local trading propensity have market-to-book values that are 5% lower, Tobin's Q that is 6% lower, annualized four-factor alphas that are 1.2% higher, and average spreads that are 6.5% higher. Together, the evidence suggests that informed investors contribute disproportionately to both liquidity and price discovery, and that these contributions are reflected in valuations and expected returns.     

Quote disclosure and price discovery in multiple-dealer financial markets

We examine the effects of price disclosure on market performancein a continuous experimental multiple-dealer market in whichseven professional market makers trade a single security. Thedealers trade with one another and with computerized informedand liquidity traders. Our key comparison is between fully publicprice queues (pretrade transparent market) and bilateral quoting(pretrade opaque). We find that opening spreads are wider andtrading volume is lower in the opaque markets due to highersearch costs there. More importantly, however, higher searchcosts also induce more aggressive pricing strategies, so thatprice discovery is much faster in the opaque markets.