Recente geschriften van J.-Ch. Snoy en M. Camps over de europese economische samenwerking

Jean-Charles Baron Snoy et d'Oppuers: Les Etapes de la Coopération Européenne et les Négociations relatives à une Zone de Libre Echange, Chronique de Politique Etrangére, Institut Royal des Relations Internationales, Brussel, september-november '59 (54 blz. plus 155 blz. bijlagen) La Négociation Européenne dans une Nouvelle Phase, Revue Générale Belge, Brussel, februari 1960 (18 blz.) Towards a European Solution, Lloyds Bank Review, London, juli 1960 (17 blz.)Miriam Camps: The Free Trade Area Negotiations, Occasional Paper No. 2, publication of Political and Economic Planning (PEP), Londen, april 1959 (51 blz.) Division in Europe, Occasional Paper No. 8, publications of PEP, Londen, juni 1960 (66 blz.) Britain, the Six and American Policy, Foreign Affairs, an American Quarterly Review, oktober 1960 (11 blz.) Four Approaches to the European Problem, Occasional Paper No. 12, publication of PEP, Londen, maart 1961 (26 blz.)     

Shocks and the Viability of a Fixed Exchange Rate Commitment

The incentive to renege on a commitment to a fixed exchange rate is shown to be state contingent. A fixed exchange rate policy is not viable under unusual circumstances, and the incentive to violate the commitment is larger in the case of contractionary shocks than in the case of expansionary shocks. The possibility that the exchange rate regime is changed in unusual circumstances has significant effects also under normal circumstances, implying systematic devaluation expectations, excessive real wages and (ex post) real rates of interest, lower output and loss of reserves, which in turn reduces the incentive to initiate a fixed exchange rate policy. Moreover, policyshifts may be contagious among countries.     

A chaotic model of the exchange rate: The role of fundamentalists and chartists

A monetary model of the exchange rate is constructed in which fundamentalists and chartists interact. It is shown that the non-linearity of this speculative dynamics leads to chaotic motion of the exchange rate. The model is also capable of generating some of the stylized facts of exchange rate dynamics.     

The economics of dying: A misapplication of tools

Conclusions Unlike McKenzie and Tullock, we do not know how personsshould treat their bodily organs or what is an ideal exit. That depends upon their utility goals, which are defined in output terms specific to the decision maker. We contend that the body is an input into the utility production process, and therefore, as with any input, it must be maintained and repaired at a level consistent with the output goals for maximization of utility. Thus, from this framework, it is quite consistent for a person to die with healthy organs without any thought of belief in reincarnation or the desire to bequeath one's bodily organs to others, or religious values. Self interest is all that must prevail.Also, the fact that there are interrelationships between the organs in the system, and at points these relationships take on fixed factor characteristics such that reduced levels of operation in one organ can create disorientation or coma or damage to other organs, means that the body cannot die as M-T suggest. Zero capacity for all organs at death is a technical impossibility as well as being inconsistent with the output goals of utility maximizers.     

Betting on the EMS

Two speculative strategies within the European Monetary System are empirically evaluated. The potential profitability of speculating on a currency's devaluation at a realignment crucially depends on being able to predict timing and magnitude of the parity change. Such opportunity has been eliminated from the system since 1983. For the reverse strategy of borrowing low, investing high, the evidence since 1983 suggests significant profitable opportunities for the weaker EMS countries — Belgium, Denmark, France and Italy — unconditional on knowledge of the timing of realignments. We conclude that this is due to a peso problem type of premium.     

Fundamentals,regime shifts,and dollar behavior in the 1980s

I provide an economic interpretation of the long swings of the dollar in the 1980s. I use the fully modified estimator method to analyze the long-run behavior of the dollar/sterling exchange rate over the period 1979–1989, detecting a structural shift in February–March 1985. In the 1979–1985 subperiod economic agents have reacted to a reduced set of fundamentals only, a finding that might corroborate the irrational behavior interpretation of the dollar upswing. In the 1985–1989 subperiod economic agents have associated the equilibrium value of the dollar with the behavior of a more balanced set of fundamentals.     

The Applied Cointegration Analysis for the Open Economy: A Critical Review

Most applied cointegration investigations for the open macro economy rely on error correction models to infer causality, predictability, market efficiency, dominance, and market segmentation. The error correction model is well defined only when cointegration is due to simultaneous common factors. When common factors are not explicitly described as in a latent common factor model, however, error correction models are misspecified. Researchers should therefore be careful in using the error correction model for cointegrated time series to ensure that they are indeed generated from simultaneous common factor models. Analysts should investigate the exact nature of both long-run and short-run relationships by presenting a full-fledged simultaneous equations model. Without such an explicit simultaneous equations model, the presence of cointegration will only uncover the existence of a long-run relationship, but not causality, predictability, market efficiency, dominance, or market segmentation. A best practice will be prescribed for the proper use and interpretation of cointegration application.     

Economische orde,economische politiek en sociale politiek

Naar aanleiding van een bundel opstellen van dr J. Zijlstra, Economische Orde en Economische Politiek, H. E. Stenfert Kroese N.V., Leiden 1956, 143 blz. en een bundel opstellen van dr G. M. J. Veldkamp, Economische Orde en Sociale Politiek, H. E. Stenfert Kroese N.V., Leiden 1957, 156 blz.     

Shall the New EU Members Introduce the Euro? Some Macroeconomic Policy Effects

After the EU enlargement in 2004, there is a clear commitment of the EU and the new member states to aim at an enlargement of the euro zone within the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) as well. This might have significant effects on the old EMU, the new members, and even on the global economy. The present paper analyzes some macroeconomic effects and particularly the impact on the effects of stabilization policies when switching to an enlarged euro zone under different assumptions about fiscal and monetary policy regimes in Europe and under alternative types of economic shocks. Also, the implications for the US of different European monetary regimes are evaluated. The results suggest that economic benefits for all countries are rather small. For the Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs), even disadvantages may dominate.     

Tax reform: Chasing the elusive dream

The paper provides a bird's-eye view of the long and arduous task of reforming the federal individual income tax. As a starting point for reviewing the major reforms, the authors evaluate Secretary Simon's criteria that underlie his contention that the tax system was badly in need of a thorough overhaul. Principles that should guide tax reforms are spelled out. Conflicts that arise with the application of these principles are highlighted. An examination of reform efforts in light of the principles and criteria set in the Treasury Department's Blue Prints for Tax Reform forms the basis for evaluating reforms enacted over the period 1978–2001. The review suggests that we are partway towards achieving the tax man's dream of equity, efficiency, and simplicity.The task of comprehensive reform is monumental in its dimension and far reaching in itspotential impact on our economic well-being.[William E. Simon, 1977, p. 11]     

Purchasing Power Parity during Currency Crises: A Panel Unit Root Test under Structural Breaks

We investigate the stationarity of real exchange rates using a panel of Asian and South and Latin American countries by applying a new panel unit root test that is robust to structural breaks due to currency crises. It turns out that the long-run PPP relationship is relevant for the Asian countries, which experienced a flexible exchange rate, whereas for the South and Latin American countries, for which the exchange rate has been pegged to the U.S. dollar for a long time, the PPP relationship breaks down. In Asian countries PPP appears to hold before the 1997 crisis, which is not the case for the South and Latin American countries. This suggests that the Asian flu corresponds to a second-generation type of crises, whereas the 1995 Mexican tequila fits the first-generation models better. JEL no. C13, C33, E41     

Toegepaste welvaartseconomie en de marginale kostenregel

Enkele opmerkingen naar aanleiding van F. Hartog, Toegepaste welvaartseconomie, Stenfert Kroese N.V., Leiden 1964 216 blz     

Global Implications of Monetary and Fiscal Policy Rules in the EMU

In order to analyze successful strategies for economic policy in a global environment both international interdependencies and the strategic behavior of global players must be considered. We use a global model of the world economy (the MSG2 Model) to show the effects of dynamic policy optimization in the presence of various supply and demand shocks to different world regions. We show that fixed rules are generally superior for supply shocks, while demand shocks call for more active or discretionary policies.     

Fiscal and monetary policy on the way to EMU

We present the simulations of fiscal adjustment policies to the Maastricht criteria in the European economies based on a rational-expectations model of the G7 economies. We find that an effort to achieve the fiscal criteria inflicts pronounced recessions on the European economies. Furthermore, the fiscal and the inflation criteria lack consistency. A return to fixed exchange rates in Europe worsens the results of fiscal retrenchment in Europe. All of this implies that a hard interpretation of the criteria is neither a desirable nor a credible strategy for EMU.CEPR     

Het N.V.-Recht En De Zelfstandigheid Van De Ondernemer

Naar aanleiding van het door de Dr. Wiardi Beckman Stichting in 1959 gepubliceerde rapport getiteld De hervorming van de onderneming.     

Bijdrage tot de theorie van de commerciele prijspolitiek

Tweede lezing voor de Economische Faculteitsvereniging te Groningen, gehouden op 21 februari 1958. Zie voor de eerste lezing, Variaties op een thema van Böhm-Bawerk, De Economist, April 1957, blz. 292 e.v.     

Charles Kindleberger: An Impressionist in a Minimalist World

Minimalist economists stubbornly resist Charles Kindlebergers characterization of investor expectations in a financial bubble as irrational. This paper seeks to resolve the controversy by imbedding Kindlebergers well-researched, impressionistic theory of financial crises into an expanded, but still-minimalist model of rational expectations. Introducing the concepts of malicious disinformation and rational overpromotion creates an informational environment in which it is time-consuming and costly to distinguish fact from fiction. Rationality still requires that expectations and market fundamentals move together over long periods of time, but dishonorable overpromoters can earn substantial profits in the interim.     

Monetary policy in the Euro area – lessons from the first years

This paper investigates in a consistent semi-structural empirical framework three current issues of monetary policy in the euro area. First, regarding policy transmission we offer a three-stage procedure to combine the estimation of economic structure prior to EMU with current ECB monetary policy. Second, we test whether the regime change leads – before or after – EMU to structural instability. Third, we investigate the stance of monetary policy in Europe. We compare a counterfactual ECB reaction function based on average interest rates prior to EMU with actual ECB policy. Furthermore, we analyse actual ECB policy with interest rate projections using Bundesbank reaction functions and euroland data.We thank two anonymous referees, participants of the Royal Economic Society Conference in 2003, the Money, Macro, and Finance Annual Conference in 2002, research seminars at the Universities of Augsburg, Bochum, Bonn, Frankfurt and Bloomington/Indiana for helpful comments. Obviously, we are responsible for all remaining shortcomings.     

International labor-cum-capital migrations: Theory,welfare implications,and evidence

Although capital is often portrayed as being more internationally mobile than labor, the theory of labor migrations typically ignores capital flows. Economic historians provide long-term evidence suggesting close linkages between capital and labor movements for high labor immigration/emigration economies. Analyzing this linkage shows that labor-cum-capital migrations have distinctive economic effects compared to labor migrations alone. These distinctive effects impact on international economic economic convergence. GNP per head is invariably a poor indicator of development trends when labor (with or without capital) migrates.     

Target zones and wealth effects: Current account implications of alternative policy assignments

This paper evaluates the current-account implications of coordinated disinflationary policy in a two-country framework, when fiscal policy is assigned to control inflation and monetary policy is used to hold down the exchange rate at its target zone level. The performance of an alternative regime, where monetary policy controls inflation and fiscal policy is assigned to control the current account is also assessed.