基于循环经济视角的河南省耕地利用集约度时空差异研究

提高耕地集约利用水平是保障我国粮食安全的重要途径。以粮食大省——河南省为样区,基于循环经济理念构建包含投入强度、重复利用、综合效益、持续状态等4个准则层的耕地集约利用评价指标体系,采用熵值法、变异系数法、协调度评价模型等方法对1994~2012年河南省耕地利用集约度进行时间序列评价,采用聚类分析法分析河南省耕地集约利用水平的空间差异特征,为河南省粮食安全和耕地集约节约利用提供依据。结果表明:(1)1994~2012年间,河南省耕地利用集约度总体呈上升趋势,但2003年下降。(2)耕地投入强度、重复利用、综合效益、持续状态呈增长态势。但耕地持续状态增长较为波动。(3)河南省耕地利用协调度比较协调,总体处于平稳波动状态,1994~2002年耕地利用协调度呈波动上升趋势,2002~2012年呈波动下降趋势。(4)1994~2012年河南省各地级市耕地集约利用水平呈上升趋势,并且具有明显的区域性差异。河南省西部地区耕地集约利用水平相对较低。     

山东省耕地利用集约度时空变化及政策启示

研究目的:通过分析1993-2014年山东省耕地利用集约度总体和各投入要素集约度的时空变化特征及影响因素,进而探讨耕地利用集约度与社会经济发展水平的协调程度,并提出相应政策措施,以提高山东省耕地集约利用水平,保障区域粮食安全。研究方法:能值分析、GIS空间分析、主成分分析。研究结果:(1)1993-2014年,山东省耕地利用集约度总体呈增长态势,而劳动集约度不断下降;资本集约度中,属于省工性投入的农业机械集约度呈现出显著的线性增长特征,属于增产性投入的化肥、农药和农膜集约度均呈先升后降的趋势。(2)全省耕地集约利用水平空间差异明显,总体上呈"东西高,南北低"的特点。(3)耕地利用集约度在一定程度上受社会经济发展水平的制约,两者存在着不协调现象。研究结论:1993-2014年,山东省耕地利用集约度不断上升的同时也存在明显的区域差异,不同区域应依据当地自然和社会经济条件,采取相应措施提高耕地集约利用水平。     

湖北省耕地利用集约度评价及分析

本文对影响耕地集约利用的因素进行了分析,确定了耕地集约利用的评价指标及权重,对湖北省1998年～2005年的耕地集约水平进行计算。研究表明,湖北省近年耕地利用集约度总体呈下降趋势;各市县的耕地集约利用水平较均衡,区域差异不明显,仅有十堰和神农架林区因退耕还林面积较大,且耕地种植条件较差,集约水平较低;并分析湖北省耕地利用集约度下降的原因,给出相关建议。     

山东省县域耕地集约利用差异分析

以山东省134个县(市、区)为评价单元,从投入强度、利用程度、产出效果和可持续状况4个层面构建了耕地集约利用评价指标体系,运用均方差权数决策法计算指标权重,采用综合指数法计算2008年县(市、区)耕地利用的集约度。结果显示,山东省耕地利用集约度空间差异显著,表现为鲁中南地区低于鲁西区和鲁北滨海区;通过结构差异的分析,认清耕地集约利用短板,采取不同的对策促进耕地集约利用水平升级。     

基于能值理论的湖南省耕地利用集约度演变研究

研究耕地资源的高效集约利用对社会经济发展具有重要意义。采用能值理论的研究方法,运用湖南统计年鉴相关数据,从农业机械集约度、化肥集约度、农药集约度、农膜集约度和劳动力集约度等5个方面,着重分析了湖南省2003~2012年间耕地利用集约度的时空变化特征。结果表明:总体看,2003~2012年,湖南省耕地利用集约度呈增长趋势,10年间耕地利用集约度共上升了0.252 8,其中生产要素集约度共增加了0.230 2,而复种指数增加了0.018 4。从各要素看,2003~2012年湖南省的农业机械、农药、农膜、化肥集约度都呈增长趋势,研究期间农药集约度增加了0.035×10~(13)sej/hm~2;化肥增加了3.111×10~(13)sej/hm~2;农膜增长了0.01×10~(13)sej/hm~2。而劳动集约度呈下降趋势;复种指数在研究时间段内总体呈上升趋势;耕地利用集约度在生产要素集约度和复种指数的综合作用下不断上升;从区域差异看,长株潭城市群和环洞庭湖区耕地利用集约度较高,因为该区域有比较优越的地理经济区位。而化肥、机械、劳动力投入水平都比较低的山地丘陵地区,工业辅助能集约度要低于劳动集约度,耕地利用集约度低。并结合分析结果和湖南省情提出了相关建议。     

四川省耕地利用集约度评价及区域差异特征

通过构建耕地集约利用评价指标体系,采用均方差法确定指标权重并运用综合评价法对1999-2006四川省耕地利用集约度进行评价,在此基础上分析其区域差异.结果表明:耕地利用集约度晕波动上升趋势,且年均耕地利用集约度提高了24.80%;区域差异明显;自然因素、经济发展、人口变化和科技进步是耕地集约利用的驱动力.认为促进耕地集约利用应通过运用宣传教育、规划引导、农业结构优化、土地整治、科技投入等手段.     

安徽省耕地集约利用及其驱动力分析

研究目的：分析近10年来安徽省耕地集约利用变化及其驱动力。研究方法：综合指数评价法、聚类分析法、因子分析法。研究结果：（1）全省耕地集约利用水平时序变化性明显。从“十五”期间和“九五”期间相比来看,除滁州、六安、黄山三个地市以外,全省其他14个地市的耕地利用集约度都有不同程度的提高。（2）全省耕地利用集约度空间差异显著,总体上呈北高南低的特点。（3）社会经济因素、耕作制度因素和自然因素是影响安徽省耕地集约利用的主要驱动因子。研究结论：应用综合评价法进行耕地利用集约度评价以及采用因子分析法进行驱动力分析,评价结果与现实情况基本吻合,具有一定的可行性。     

哈尔滨市耕地集约利用水平预测及障碍因子诊断

【目的】如何高效利用土地资源、提高耕地集约度是当前科学研究的主要问题,但如何科学预测耕地集约度则一直是研究难点。【方法】基于哈尔滨市耕地集约利用现状,运用熵权、变异系数组合赋权法、BP神经网络、障碍因子诊断法等揭示哈尔滨市耕地集约利用水平发展趋势及耕地集约利用影响因素,为耕地集约利用发展方向及提高耕地集约利用度提供理论依据。【结果】结果表明:(1)1985~2014年哈尔滨市耕地集约利用水平平均值为0.346 2,处于相对集约状态;2015~2024年哈尔滨市耕地集约利用水平呈稳定上升态势,耕地集约利用度均值为0.475,处于高度集约状态;1985~2024年耕地集约利用水平以相对平稳态势发展,且并未出现较大波动,40年间哈尔滨市耕地集约利用平均值达0.409 6,处于较集约状态。(2)从准则层指标障碍度来看,耕地产出效率和投入强度对耕地集约利用水平的影响较大,并且呈现不断上升的趋势,耕地产出效率和投入强度年均增长速率为8.69%、7.82%,耕地利用程度和耕地利用可持续性年均下降速率为4.86%、5.73%,耕地集约利用水平的主要障碍因子是灌溉指数、单位耕地面积农业从业人员、农业产值比、单位播种面积粮食产量等。【结论】运用BP神经网络对哈尔滨市耕地集约利用水平进行科学预测,用障碍因子诊断法诊断耕地集约利用障碍因子,能为研究哈尔滨市耕地集约利用发展趋势提供理论支撑。     

基于改进熵值法的耕地利用集约度评价

本文在探讨耕地集约利用内涵和影响因素的基础上,构建了耕地利用集约度评价指标体系;利用改进熵值法确定指标权重,采用功效函数评价法计算耕地利用集约度,并建立了耕地集约利用协调度模型。以四川省为例,进行了实证研究,并对评价结果进行了分析,进而提出了促进耕地集约利用的针对性建议。     

农户视角下湖北省耕地集约利用影响因素分析

研究目的：基于农户视角分析耕地资源集约利用的影响因素及其作用机理,探讨促进耕地集约利用的途径与措施,为提高中国耕地资源配置和利用效率提供新的研究视角。研究方法：双对数函数模型分析法。研究结果：农民户均劳动力人数、农民人均纯收入和农业比较收入对耕地集约利用具有明显的正向驱动作用;农业生产资料价格指数对耕地集约利用具有较明显的负向影响;而耕地的产权保障和农业补贴政策对耕地集约利用的影响不显著。研究结论：耕地利用集约度实质上是农户不同耕种行为的表现结果,提高耕地利用集约度的关键是采取相应的政策措施激励农户的耕种行为;增加农户农业收入、控制农业生产资料价格,稳定或适度降低农业生产成本等是促进农户集约利用耕地资源的重要经济手段;深化农地产权制度改革和调整完善农业补贴政策是提高耕地利用集约度的重要制度基础。     

Price transmission between products at different stages of manufacturing in forest industries

The theory of demand and supply implies a positive relationship, or “price transmission” between the prices of products at different stages of manufacturing. This relationship was investigated with quarterly prices of softwood stumpage in the US South, and national prices of forest products, from 1977 to 2002. All prices, net of inflation, were found to be nonstationary and there was no evidence of co-integration between prices. Vector autogressive models, augmented by Granger causality tests and multiplier analysis showed that there was a one-to-one permanent positive response of the southern sawtimber stumpage price to a permanent change in the national lumber price. There was also a one-third permanent positive response of the national paper price to a permanent change in the national pulp price. There was no relation between regional pulpwood prices and national pulp or paper prices. When price transmission was significant, the full adjustment took about 2 years.     

Application of an ecosystem function framework to perceptions of community woodlands

Owners, local residents, government, and conservation organisations can express divergent preferences in the development and management of local woodlands. The perceptions of these four groups were examined, in the context of three community woodlands in Eastern England, using an ecosystem function framework. In a pilot study, residents were able to allocate a relative importance to woodland ecosystem services which were then related to “regulation”, “habitat”, and “production” or “information” functions. However residents also placed importance on negative services or “dis-services” associated with the woodland ecosystem. Therefore a fifth category of “dis-services” was included in the main survey which included 84 local residents, three woodland owners, three government institutions, and six representatives from conservation groups. Each of the four groups placed greatest importance on services associated with habitat (16–39% of the total importance) and information (30–50%) functions suggesting, in this example, mutual interest in the use of woodlands as a habitat or recreational resource. By contrast a potential area of difference was the particularly high importance placed by one owner on dis-services such as fly tipping. In addition the woodland owners placed higher importance (10–20%), than local residents and conservation groups (7–9%), on the productive services of the wood. This suggests a need for communication when production-related operations affect recreation. The ecosystem function framework appears to be a useful approach for highlighting potential tensions and areas of mutual interest in the management of semi-natural ecosystems.     

In Vino ‘No’ Veritas: impacts of fraud on wine imports in China

China is one of the largest wine importing countries in the world and is poised for continued import growth in the future. Increased wine purchases throughout China have given rise to persistent fraud where fake wines are packaged and sold with counterfeit contents and labels. For exporting countries like France, counterfeit wines displace market share, damage foreign brand reputation, and cause distrust in consumers who are aware of counterfeiting problems throughout the country. We examine the impact of fraudulent wine events (as measured by negative media reports) on Chinese wine demand differentiated by supplying country. We employ the Rotterdam demand system and a switching regression procedure to estimate import demand and compare results across different media variable specifications. Results consistently show that negative reports disproportionately affect French wine regardless of how the media variable is specified. This is not surprising because most fraudulent events involve French wine counterfeits.     

An evaluation framework for earthquake-responsive land administration

In recent years earthquakes and their secondary hazards have claimed the largest number of lives of all large natural disasters. Some of the world’s most earthquake-prone zones are also areas of high population density. The impact is magnified by vulnerability factors including non-enforcement of building codes, knowledge gaps, urban poverty and poor governance capacity to manage and reduce earthquake risks. Poor security of land tenure and property rights increases the vulnerability of people and affects their ability to respond to natural disasters.Earthquake recovery and reconstruction provides very significant challenges for land agencies, with these challenges differing from one country to the next due to differences in the local context. Drawing on contrasting case studies in Haiti, Nepal and New Zealand this paper identifies the common post-earthquake land administration functions and challenges that may apply to many contexts. These lessons provide land agencies and other key stakeholders with a summary of the challenges an earthquake poses for land administration at different post-disaster stages. We also discuss the policy and regulatory, institutional, operational and preparedness lessons for land administration. From these lessons we propose a framework for evaluating the earthquake-responsiveness of a land administration system. This framework can be used by a land agency in an earthquake prone region, or where an earthquake has recently occurred, to assess what challenges to land administration might occur in the event of an earthquake, and the preparedness of their land administration system.     

Agrarian Poverty,Nutrition and Economic Class – A Study of Gujarat,India

This paper analyses poverty and calorific undernourishment in the Indian state of Gujarat, where high and market‐led industrial growth has resulted in rapid economic improvement. The study is carried out through a combination of secondary and survey‐based data. We conclude that the neoliberal agenda of uncontrolled, outward‐looking growth has not resulted in significant reduction of poverty or malnourishment in rural areas. Furthermore, while land ownership is officially used as a proxy for wealth distribution, class position appears a better predictor of poverty status in the rural areas than landownership per se. At the policy level, there is a need to revive the agrarian economy and create new non‐agricultural assets, and the primary focus in the state must shift to the distribution of created assets rather than a single‐minded focus on growth.     

Does sustainable agricultural growth require a system of innovation? Evidence from Ghana and Burkina Faso

This paper tests the ‘systems of innovation’ hypothesis for a selection of crops in Ghana and Burkina Faso that have shown significant growth in production over an approximately 20-year period. The question is whether such growth can only occur if supported by a system of innovation. Using two indicators (a common understanding on objectives and priorities, and a high level of interactivity), we find little evidence for the existence of anything that might be considered a high functioning system of innovation.     

Local impacts of industrial tree plantations: An empirical analysis in Indonesia across plantation types

The values ascribed to industrial tree plantations are often controversial. Hence knowledge of their perceived impacts is important for improving their integration in rural landscapes. In 2016 we conducted household surveys with 606 respondents living in villages adjacent to acacia, teak and pine plantations across three islands in Indonesia (Java, Borneo, Sumatra). Results show that perceptions toward pine and teak plantations tend to differ from those toward acacia pulpwood plantations in several ways. Pine and teak plantations are perceived to have a higher number and variety of benefits and services, a higher number of positive impacts, a better environmental record, and to present more opportunities to local people for use of plantation land and products for improving rural livelihoods. In addition, we find that villagers around acacia pulpwood plantations tend to seek economic development and infrastructure to open up remote areas, yet their expectations were often only partially met. Recommendations from our analysis include: the role of the State in plantations must be clarified and potentially reinforced; the role of institutions as intermediaries is fundamental; and contributions by communities to design of management plans should be accommodated.     

Upstream demand for water use by new tree plantations imposes externalities on downstream irrigated agriculture and wetlands*

Large‐scale tree plantations in high rainfall upstream areas can reduce fresh water inflows to river systems, thereby imposing external costs on downstream irrigation, stock and domestic water users and wetland interests. We take the novel approach of expressing all benefits and costs of establishing plantations in terms of $ per gigalitre (GL) of water removed annually from river flows, setting upstream demands on the same basis as downstream demands. For the Macquarie Valley, a New South Wales sub‐catchment of Australia’s Murray‐Darling Basin, we project changes in land and water use and changes in economic surpluses under two policy settings: without and with a policy requiring permanent water entitlements to be purchased from downstream parties, before plantation establishment. Without the policy, and given a high stumpage value for trees ($70/m³), upstream gains in economic surplus projected from expanding plantations are $639 million; balanced against $233 million in economic losses by downstream irrigators and stock and domestic water users for a net gain of $406 million, but 345 GL lower mean annual environmental flows. With the policy, smaller gains in upstream economic surplus from trees ($192 million), added to net downstream gains ($138 million) from sale of water, result in gains of $330 million with no reduction in environmental flows. Sustaining the 345 GL flow for a $76 million (406–330) reduction in gains to economic surplus may be seen to cost only $0.22 million/GL; but this is much lower than the market value of the first units of that water to agriculture and forestry.     

Underpayment of Small Producers of Coffee and Cocoa in Sierra Leone

Fieldwork shows that many Sierra Leonean producers do not receive the official producer price for their coffee and cocoa, due to the concentration of buying stations, credit relations, the small quantities offered for sale, and the lack of marketing knowledge of the numerous and unorganized farmers. To the traders underpayment may seem economically justifiable to a certain extent, but to the farmers it means poverty and debt. A new village marketing centre project aims at remedying this situation and has already led to higher prices. Although no longer allowed to take their "just" share from the producers, traders are still willing to deal with the new centres.     

Malaria incidence and agricultural efficiency in Uganda

The cost of accessing healthcare can be a major determinant of disease prevalence, which in turn has short‐ and long‐term welfare implications on poor households. In response, governments in developing countries often resort to subsidizing the cost of drugs, which, while perhaps easier to administer, may not always be the most effective way of addressing healthcare cost. In this regard, we analyze the impact of different types of household level health expenses on disease incidence and agricultural production efficiency. We use data from the 2006 Uganda National Household Survey, which covered approximately 7,400 households. The results suggest that a 10% increase in consultation, medicine, and hospitalization expenses would reduce malaria incidence respectively by 35.6%, 20.5%, and 21.3 %, which translates into a 1.1%, 0.6%, and 0.6 % decrease in agricultural inefficiency, respectively. The results indicate that helping poor households meet expenses for consultation through subsidies or eliminating consultation fees has a larger impact on malaria incidence and agricultural productivity among poor rural households than subsidizing the cost of medical drugs, the most common avenue chosen by developing country governments in the fight against the disease.