Nicaragua: structural adjustment policy analysis in the nineties

Three of the most relevant aspects of structural adjustment are presented in this paper: exchange policies, tariff policies, and fiscal policies. They are evaluated with a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model. The model is used first to assess the exchange rate as the most relevant macroeconomic variable both for inflation control and for the promotion of exports. Secondly, the CGE considers how trade liberalization sustained on Ricardian principles of comparative advantages within a framework of trade integration agreements. Finally, the CGE analyzes public expenditure contraction as a central element in the new role the state has in the economy. The model is based on a Social Accounting Matrix built for 1991, a key year for these transformations.     

Honduras: application of a CGE model

This paper constructs a social accounting matrix for Honduras to serve as a database for the computable general equilibrium (or CGE) model adapted to the characteristics of the Honduran economy. A number of simulations of economic policy modifications were carried out to quantify their possible impact on Honduran economy. This paper first considers the general characteristics of the Honduran economy and the main policy reforms put into effect these last few years. CGE model characteristics for Honduras are briefly presented, and the Honduran SAM for 1991 is described. Several simulations were run to assess the impact of selected policy changes. Results show that, in general, structural modification policies used to redirect the Honduran economy outwards (trade liberalization and devaluation of the lempira) favor agriculture, not only in terms of its domestic production but also concerning income distribution. The results are consistent with the ones proposed in the literature on economic development that maintains that interventionist policies linked to the import substitution model that were in fashion until the eighties were anti-agrarian. On the other hand, a reduction in public expenditure promotes less the Honduran rural sector, though it does not stop doing so. However, results also point to the fact that there are underlying problems in carrying out these liberalization measures. The clearest case is free trade, since compensating the drastic reductions to state income that are brought by the reduction or elimination of tariffs is no easy task.     

Impact of trade liberalization on firm's labour demand by skill: The case of Tunisian manufacturing

This paper investigates the impact of the trade liberalization process in Tunisia on employment by distinguishing different skills and different types of firms using micro level data covering the period of 1983–1994. There is considerable disagreement among analysts on the impact of recent trade reforms upon labour. Our contribution to these debates in this paper is essentially an empirical issue. The analysis of a Tunisian firm's data may be viewed as an attempt to apprehend how employment in Tunisia, a developing country, adjusted to the trade reforms. Using micro-level detail on individual firms, we are able to trace the relationship between changes in trade policies and manufacturing employment at firm level and by skill. Although trade reforms are generally implemented at the sector level, their effects may vary significantly across firm characteristics such as output orientation. We measure the effects of trade policy on employment according to different types of firms. We also associate changes in employment directly with a measure of change in trade protection, rather than linking them to changes in imports and exports which would be more common. The results suggest that the impact of trade liberalization on labour demand depends on a firm's characteristics. In particular, the estimates obtained suggest that trade liberalization has beneficial effects on employment for exporting-firms. Conversely, trade liberalization has negative and disciplinary effects on employment for domestically oriented firms. The reduction in tariff levels conducted in this first phase of liberalization in Tunisia seems to have had effects with different intensity on unskilled labour and on skilled labour; this justifies the examination of these two skills.     

汇率变动对我国商品贸易结构影响研究

汇率作为相对价格和政策变量,具有引导贸易流向和调整贸易结构的作用。由于汇率变动引起生产中所使用要素相对价格发生变化,从而改变一国生产某类商品比较优势程度发生变化,使统一汇率政策可以成为差别产业贸易政策。本文从我国进出口商品贸易结构以及贸易国别来源角度分析人民币汇率改制后我国进出口商品贸易结构变化。采用实证方法考察人民币实际汇率变动对我国进口和出口商品贸易结构的影响。     

Trade Liberalization and Poverty in Ecuador: A CGE Macro-Microsimulation Analysis

Cross-country analysis of the aggregate growth-poverty link is likely to miss important country-specific detail and possible offsetting forces in the underlying labour market adjustment process. This paper combines a CGE model analysis with a microsimulations approach to analyse the effects of trade liberalization on poverty and income distribution in Ecuador. The CGE model enables us to disentangle the general equilibrium effects of various trade policy scenarios on sector output, employment, factor incomes and household consumption. However, as is typical of CGE models, this analysis only provides distribution results for fairly aggregated groups of workers and a reduced number of representative households. The microsimulations approach adds the full distribution to the analysis and allows simulation of the effects of trade reform on the job status and remuneration of individual workers and thereby on household income distribution and poverty. The macro- microsimulation results indicate that the trade opening in Ecuador induced mild aggregate welfare gains, but rising income inequality due to rising wage differentials between skilled and unskilled workers implies virtually no poverty-reducing effect from trade liberalization.     

EVIDENCE ON THE IMPACT OF TARIFF REDUCTIONS ON EMPLOYMENT IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES: A SYSTEMATIC REVIEW

This paper analyses the evidence on the impact of tariff reductions on employment in developing countries. We carry out a systematic review of the existing empirical literature, and include both, ex post econometric evidence and ex ante Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) simulation studies. The synthesis of results suggests that the effects of tariff reductions on employment are country and trade policy specific. When looking across higher quality econometric studies that control for the endogeneity of tariffs, only a couple of studies have statistically significant results, and these suggest that employment is likely to decrease slightly in the short run following trade liberalization. This is consistent with the notion that there are winners and losers from trade policy reform. These results are in contrast with the CGE findings, which by design incorporate projections of the medium‐run economy‐wide knock‐on effects suggested by economic theory. The synthesis of CGE studies suggests non‐negative effects of trade liberalization on aggregate employment and moderate inter‐sectoral labour reallocation effects.     

试论我国实施贸易调整援助制度的潜在问题与风险

近年来,经济全球化和贸易自由化对我国经济产生了一定冲击,金融危机以后我国面临着更为严峻的外贸形势,而我国现有的贸易救济制度又存在着诸多不足,因此我国实施贸易调整援助制度是十分必要的。我国实施贸易调整援助的目的是恢复和提高企业竞争力,提高资源的配置效率和维护社会稳定。但是在当前的社会经济条件下,我国实施贸易调整援助制度仍然存在一些潜在的问题和风险,主要包括制度缺陷风险、经济冲击风险、贸易摩擦风险和资金风险。我国政府需要科学、有序地制定实施方案,以防范风险,实现政策实施的最大效用。     

Does economic liberalization promote economic growth in Pakistan? An empirical analysis

The study aims to examine the short and long term impacts of economic liberalization on economic growth in case of Pakistan from 1971 to 2011. Economic liberalization consists of reforms in both trade liberalization and financial liberalization. This study contributes to the existing literature by constructing an economic liberalization index using principal component analysis. Our results show, firstly, that economic liberalization reforms have a positive impact on economic growth in the short run. However, trade liberalization is negatively associated with economic growth in the long-run. Secondly, the estimated coefficients through rolling window show that impact of economic liberalization on real GDP is unstable during the selected period of sample. This study recommends to policy makers to enhance human capital by having more expenditure on education sector. In addition, financial reforms by way of a sectoral credit allocation should be introduced to further promote the economic growth.     

Economic uncertainty and growth performance: a macroeconomic modeling analysis for Pakistan

This paper investigates the effects of economic uncertainty on growth performance of Pakistan through developing a small macroeconomic model. The GARCH method has been used for construction of economic uncertainty variables related to macroeconomic policies. The structural outcomes clearly indicate that economic policy uncertainty affects negatively on real and nominal sectors of Pakistan. The forecasting of model and different policy uncertainty simulation shocks also indicated that an adjustment in economic policies due to change of policy objectives create uncertain environment in country, which not only deteriorates the investment climate of country, it also affects the economic growth. Our study concludes that economic uncertainty not only reduces the current investment and economic growth, it also affects the future decision of investment and economic growth. This study suggests that sustainable and steady economic policies always reduce economic uncertainty and promote the confidence of economic agents, which help in achieving the targets of investment, trade and economic growth. Our study also maintains the predictability and reliability of government policies for the accomplishment of macroeconomic goals and economic development of country.     

Regional and National Perspectives of China's Integration into the WTO: A CGE Inquiry with Emphasis on the Agricultural Sector

China's integration in the World Trade Organization (WTO) is already on its fast track. Understanding the complexity of China's dynamic adjustment resulting from its membership in the WTO and the differential regional impacts within China is very important and poses crucial challenge in evaluating its impacts. In this study, we make an attempt to incorporate seven regional commodity-detailed models into a dis-aggregated multi-sector and multi-region China Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) framework. This framework has allowed us to evaluate the impacts of China's integration into the WTO at both national and regional levels and analyze the inter-linkages between China's provincial agricultural markets. Using the framework and assumptions about factor mobility, we assess the impacts on China's agricultural and non-agricultural sectors (regionally and nationally) by reduction of its trade policy distortions, such as tariffs rate changes and quantitative restrictions. We also evaluate the structural changes on China's national and regional production and trade as China implements its commitments and moves into the WTO.     

Internal and external transmissions of monetary and fiscal policies in the EMU

With the introduction of Economic and Monetary Union (EMU), the sovereignty of national monetary institutions has been replaced by a common monetary institution, the European Central Bank (ECB) and national currencies have been replaced by a common currency, the euro. EMU therefore implies the loss of national monetary policy autonomy and internal exchange rate flexibility inside the EMU area. However, external exchange rate adjustment, i.e. adjustment of the euro exchange rate, remains a feasible adjustment mechanism. This paper analyses how internal and external exchange rate flexibility affect macroeconomic adjustment in EMU and non-EMU countries. To do so, a model is constructed in which three countries interact: two countries that decide to form a monetary union and a third country that does not participate in the monetary union. Numerical simulations of a representative example are used to characterise the adjustment dynamics induced by monetary and fiscal policies before and after the start of the EMU.     

Is the liberalization policy effective on improving bivariate cointegration of current accounts, foreign exchange, stock prices? Further evidence from Asian markets

This paper fist examines three set of bivariate cointegrations between any two of current accounts, stock markets, and currency exchange markets in 10 Asian countries. Furthermore, this work examined the effect of country characters on this bivariate cointegration. Our findings suggest that for three sets of cointegration test, each sample country at least exists one cointegration. India consistently exhibited a bi-directional causal relationship between any two of three indicators. Unlike Pan et al. (Int Rev Econ Financ 16:503–520, 2007 and Phylaktis and Ravazzolo (J Int Money Financ 24:1031–1053, 2005), this study found that such cointegration is influenced by three characteristics: capital control; flexibility in foreign exchange rates; and the ratio of trade to GDP. These characteristics are the result of liberalization in each Asian country. This implies that liberalization policies are effective on improving the cointegration between any two of financial markets and current account for 10 Asian countries.     

Exchange Rate Adjustment in Partially Liberalized Economy

This paper develops a model of exchange rate determination in partially liberalized post-socialist economy that operates under soft budget constraints in nontradable sectors. The model captures the factors that determine the evolution of a country's external balance during the initial phase of economic liberalization. Three types of disturbances are the center of analysis: liberalization of trade and foreign exchange regime, devaluation, and price liberalization. We show that the real exchange rate appreciation may either improve or worsen the trade balance depending on the sources of this appreciation. Thus, we argue that the real exchange rate cannot reflect true country's competitiveness unless all sectors are equally exposed to hard budget constraints. The model implications are further analyzed through the empirical evidence on the relationship between the real exchange rate and trade balance in three selected East European countries.     

外商直接投资与货币政策对中国出口的影响

利用2005年1月至2010年12月的数据,比较货币政策与资本流入两种因素对中国出口贸易的影响。实证结果表明,中国出口额与利率、汇率、信贷量、FDI存在长期协整关系,信贷量每增加1%,出口额增加0.84%。但FDI对出口贸易的长短期影响不一致。而且经检验发现,利率变动和汇率变动并不是出口变动的Granger原因。所以,中国应完善基础设施建设,缩短FDI发挥创造效应的时间,并综合利用信贷政策、利率政策、汇率政策等多种政策来调整贸易收支。     

Growth and the dynamics of trade liberalization

This paper develops a model of ongoing trade liberalization as a self-enforcing equilibrium in a game between governments. Economic growth is a critical ingredient in successful trade liberalization. But differences in national growth rates have profound differences on the sustainable tariff equilibria of the game. If international technology spillovers are not concentrated in high-growth sectors, faster growing countries will be more protectionist, setting higher tariffs and liberalizing trade at a later date. But with spillovers more concentrated in high-growth sectors, faster-growing countries may be less protectionist. Differences in growth rates lead the process of trade liberalization to be far from reciprocal. A sustainable trade liberalization may actually involve one country pursuing a unilateral policy of free trade, even though its trading partner imposes tariffs against it.     

Capturing the Implications of Services Trade Liberalization

This paper evaluates the impact of service sector trade liberalization on the world economy by a ten-region, eleven-sector CGE model with import embodied technology transfer from developed countries to developing countries. Simulation results show that service sector trade liberalization not only directly affects world service production and trade, but also has significant implications for other sectors in the economy. The major channel of the impact is through inter-industry input-output relations and TFP growth induced from services imported by developing countries from developed countries, which may be embodied with new information and advanced technology.     

Agricultural Trade Liberalization in a Computable General Equilibrium Framework for the Philippines

A bi-regional and multi-market computable general equilibrium model that focuses on the agricultural sector of the Philippines' economy in 1987 is constructed. This paper presents the basic structure of the model and carries out some cost-benefit analyses to assess the impact of alternative trade reform policies on the economy. It is found that various liberalization policies can produce large benefits, but any single policy implemented separately may incur intolerable costs. However, a combination of trade liberalization and currency devaluation, coupled with target income support and income tax reform, can achieve balanced results that are beneficial to the economy without worsening income distribution and food consumption of the poor.     

Beware of breaks in exchange rates: Evidence from European transition countries

We endogenously search for the single most decisive structural break in exchange rate for a group of European transition countries under the hypothesis that structural breaks in exchange rates are driven by exchange rate policies. Detected breaks were frequently associated with major changes in exchange rate regime. However, several breaks were found not to be driven by exchange rate policies. By this token, the lack of coincidence between policy step and exchange rate regime shift hints at imperfect timing of exchange regime modification. Further, since a one time break can lead to inconsistent results, structural breaks in exchange rates should be accounted for in empirical research.     

A General Equilibrium Analysis of the Australian Information Economy

The more robust computable general equilibrium (CGE) modelling has been applied to examine the macro-economic implications of promoting the nascent Australian information economy. The Australian information economy has been trichotomized into marketed or primary information, secondary or non-marketed information and non-information economic sectors using a special algorithm. The trichotomized data base has been used in a CGE framework to examine the macro-economic policy implications of information sector development. In particular, the nurturing, under protection, of the primary information sector as a strategic trade sector provided unanticipated lack-lustre results. Overall, it is the contention of this paper that the CGE analysis of the Australian information economy provides richer policy insights than straightforward input–output analytics.