Betting on bitcoin: a profitable trading between directional and shielding strategies

Decisions in Economics and Finance - In this paper, we come up with an original trading strategy on Bitcoins. The methodology we propose is profit-oriented, and it is based on buying or selling the...     

UK Asian communities: A profitable market for nonprofits?

The ethnic minority communities in the UK are an increasingly powerful force. But UK charities have not had a great deal of experience in approaching this market, despite a readily acknowledged desire to increase their own levels of cultural diversity. How many want a better ethnic representation among their donor base? How many want greater cultural diversity among volunteers, let alone staff? This paper examines the Asian communities within the UK, and suggests that these are groupings with which UK charities should be engaging. The communities are identifiable, with strong philanthropic traditions, they have increasing economic power and they are accessible. The paper also looks briejly at a positive response generated by one organisation-the Aga Khan Foundation (UK) — to a non-denominational, intercommunal appeal for funds from the Asian Communities in the UK.     

A profitable model for predicting the over/under market in football

The over/under 2.5 goals betting market allows gamblers to bet on whether the total number of goals in a football match will exceed 2.5. In this paper, a set of ratings, named ‘Generalised Attacking Performance’ (GAP) ratings, are defined which measure the attacking and defensive performance of each team in a league. GAP ratings are used to forecast matches in ten European football leagues and their profitability is tested in the over/under market using two value betting strategies. GAP ratings with match statistics such as shots and shots on target as inputs are shown to yield better predictive value than the number of goals. An average profit of around 0.8 percent per bet taken is demonstrated over twelve years when using only shots and corners (and not goals) as inputs. The betting strategy is shown to be robust by comparing it to a random betting strategy.     

A strategy for trading the S&P 500 futures market

A system for trading the S&P 500 futures market is proposed. The system is applied to S&P 500 futures data during the period from September 14, 1987, to September 27, 1999. The system uses a momentum oscillator for generating entry or exit prices. In addition, the system uses another indicator for predicting the direction of the trend. When only the oscillator is used for selecting trades, the system is not, in general, as good as buy-and-hold. However, when the trend indicator is used as a filter, the trading system is, at least, as good as buy-and-hold.     

A dynamic priority rule for scheduling against due-dates

We simulate the performance of a simple production system in which due-dates are set internally. We investigate priority rules aimed at minimizing tardiness, emphasizing a “modified duedate rule” which functions effectively in conjunction with internally-set deadlines and which adapts to both tight and loose conditions in the due-dates. This rule is simple and logical, and shows considerable promise for application in complex production systems.     

A control rule for recruitment planning in engineering consultancy

The most valuable asset of a professional service firm is its people. Owing to the high labor turnover, staffing decision is very critical in its operations. We take engineering consultancy as a professional service and emphasize the importance of developing knowledge stock of skilled consultants in a planned manner for efficient productivity management. Our focus is management of knowledge-mix, which is the mix of consultants at different productivity levels. Our model is designed to determine the steady-state number of consultant-mix to meet demand at a desired service level. This is done through the use of control theory and chance constrained programming.      

A heuristic rule for routing customers to parallel servers

A practically important problem is the assignment of stochastically arriving service requests to one of several parallel service groups so as to minimize the long-run average sojourn time per service request. An exact solution of this multi-dimensional optimization problem is computationally infeasible. A simple heuristic solution method yielding a good suboptimal rule will be given for the case of server groups with different and generally distributed service times. This solution method is based on a decomposition approach and first principles from Markov decision theory. The main idea of the heuristic method is to apply one step of policy improvement to the best Bernoulli-splitting rule.     

A simple and effective scanning rule for a multi-channel system

We consider a multi-channel system in which one apparatus makes a sequence of observations, one at a time. By means of scanning, i.e. selecting a channel to be analyzed at any instant and deciding to stop at some stage, it is required to determine the channel in which there is the signal with prescribed constraints on error probabilities. A simple scanning rule, based on a cyclic application of a sequential probability ratio test (SPRT) is proposed for this problem. It is proved that in the case of Brownian motion, the expected scanning time of this rule is equal to the one of the optimal scanning rule (which is known only for this case). The simple structure of this rule permits to obtain corrected Brownian approximations for its characteristics in the case of exponential family of distributions. The same procedure is used in multi-channel change point problem.     

A closed-form expression for the net present value of a time-power cash-flow function

Previous work has shown how Laplace Transform Theory and z-Transform Theory may be used in Net Present Value Analysis. A closed-form expression is easily derived for a continuous cash flow t^k, where t denotes time and k is a positive integer. In the corresponding discrete case, explicit expressions have only been provided for k 10. In this article we derive a closed-form formula for the missing general case when k is an arbitrary non-negative integer. As a byproduct, we also obtain a closed-form expression for the z-transform of such a power series.     

A survey on time-varying parameter Taylor rule: A model modified with interest rate pass-through

Today, the prime aim of central banking is to achieve price stability and, to a lesser extent, output stability. To this end, central banks use various monetary policy rules. This paper intends to provide a broad survey of the literature on Taylor-type monetary policy rules with a time-varying parameter (TVP) specification. To include the TVP feature, some modification is made in the monetary transmission mechanism of Taylor-type monetary policy models to account for the changing risk preference of individuals. In line with this approach, we introduce an interest rate pass-through specification of the monetary transmission process in a general equilibrium model to account for the varying perceptions of risk by individuals. We include an application for Turkey and estimate the time-variable parameters of the model by employing a structural extended Kalman filter (EKF). The results indicate that the EKF performs better than the standard Kalman filter in estimating the reaction function of the central bank.     

我国网络银行发展模式及策略研究

文章对目前我国网络银行发展的现状及面临的有利条件和制约因素进行了分析和探讨,提出了我国网络银行的发展模式和具体策略     

软土路基沉降广义Usher曲线预测方法研究

Gompetz、Pearl、Usher和Weibull等4种生长曲线模型是应用较多的软土路基沉降预测模型,文章建立了一种具有更大灵活性和更广泛适应性的新的生长曲线模型———广义Usher模型,通过数学规划方法求解,从而可根据有限的实测沉降观测数据预测软土路基沉降发展过程。工程实例分析表明,利用该模型得到的预测曲线与实测曲线吻合较好,精度不低于上述4种模型,能够满足工程要求。     

社区人居环境满意度研究——以大连市为例

以大连市为例,通过问卷调查形式,引入DPSIR模型,运用数学和地理空间分析的方法,定量研究社区人居环境的满意度.研究表明,虽然大连市是人居环境优秀城市,但是居民对社区人居环境满意度的评价却属"一般"等级;从指标权重排列看,社区人居环境的满意度受居民自身状况影响较大,如收入状况、文化层次等;大连市社区人居环境满意度较高社区的分布形式既有分散的核心点分布,又有集中连片的条带状布局.     

A number‐of‐modes reference rule for density estimation under multimodality

We consider kernel density estimation for univariate distributions. The question of interest is as follows: given that the data analyst has some background knowledge on the modality of the data (for instance, ‘data of this type are usually bimodal’), what is the adequate bandwidth to choose? We answer this question by extending Silverman's idea of ‘normal‐reference’ to that of ‘reference to a Gaussian mixture’. The concept is illustrated in the light of real data examples.     

国际结算产学研一体化的教学模式研究

国际结算课程的应用性和操作性强,重书本知识的传授、轻实际操作能力的培养和训练、教学与实践脱节的国际结算教学模式,忽略了学生职业能力和创新能力的培养,不能适应社会对大学教育要求的变化.大学与商业银行、进出口公司和企业联合,实行产学研一体化的国际结算教学模式,是培养学生的职业能力和创新能力、增加学生就业机会、提高教学质量和科研水平的有效途径.     

国际结算产学研一体化的教学模式研究

国际结算课程的应用性和操作性强,重书本知识的传授、轻实际操作能力的培养和训练、教学与实践脱节的国际结算教学模式,忽略了学生职业能力和创新能力的培养,不能适应社会对大学教育要求的变化。大学与商业银行、进出口公司和企业联合,实行产学研一体化的国际结算教学模式,是培养学生的职业能力和创新能力、增加学生就业机会、提高教学质量和科研水平的有效途径。     

A legacy of control? The capital subsidy for housing,and informal settlement intervention in South Africa

Control over the urbanization process in South Africa was redefined after the mid‐1980s, when the policy of ‘orderly urbanization’ replaced that of racially based ‘influx control’. In the early 1990s, under the inspiration of the private sector‐funded policy think tank, the Urban Foundation, a standardized capital subsidy was introduced as a means of financing the orderly settlement of poor households on peri‐urban land. Currently, the capital subsidy may be considered the cornerstone of the South African national housing policy. This article examines how the capital subsidy framework has perpetuated the practice of control by submitting urban expansion in the lowest income sector to rigid regulation. It discusses recent responses from various sectors of the South African society, while also examining how continuity in the intervention approach was maintained from previous decades. The article points to a need to depart from the capital subsidy framework as a basis for informal settlement intervention in South Africa. En Afrique du Sud, la maîtrise du processus d'urbanisation a été redéfinie vers la fin des années 1980, alors que la politique publique de ‘l'urbanisation ordonnée’ remplaçait celle du ‘contrô le des flux’ aux critères raciaux. Au début des années 1990, inspirée d'un groupe de réflexion stratégique financé par le secteur privé, la Urban Foundation, une subvention d'équipement classique, a été lancée comme moyen de financer l'implantation ordonnée des ménages pauvres dans les terres péri‐urbaines. Actuellement, la subvention d'équipement peut être considérée comme la pierre angulaire de la politique nationale du logement en Afrique du Sud. L'article examine comment le système des subventions d'équipement a perpétué l'exercice du contrôle en soumettant l'expansion urbaine à une réglementation rigide pour la population aux plus faibles revenus. Il étudie les réactions récentes de plusieurs secteurs de la société sud‐africaine, tout en approfondissant comment la continuité de cette démarche a été préservée à partir des dernières décennies. Ces travaux soulignent la nécessité de sortir du système des subventions d'équipement comme fondement d'intervention pour l'habitat sauvage en Afrique du Sud.