A model for IPO pricing and contract choice decision

This paper attempts to reconcile the average underpricing phenomenon with the expected wealth maximizing behaviors of market participants. Under the usual informational asymmetry, the optimal offer price for best efforts IPOs is derived as a function of the uncertainty about market’s valuation, the expected return on proposed projects and the size of offerings relative to the firm’s market value. According to these firm-specific characteristics, best efforts IPOs can be underpriced, fairly priced, or overpriced. Employing the investment banker as an outside information producer, the basic pricing model is extended to provide empirical implication for underwriting contract choice decision as well as for the pricing. Consistent with the existing empirical evidences, the model predicts that the issuers with greater uncertainty about market’s valuation choose best efforts contract over firm commitment contract and that the dispersion of initial returns would be greater for best efforts IPOs than for firm commitment IPOs.     

Flexible Working,Individual Performance,and Employee Attitudes: Comparing Formal and Informal Arrangements

In the context of a wider trend to individualize human resource management, this article examines the relationship between flexible working arrangements and individual performance. Drawing on a range of theories, this article also examines potential indirect effects on employee performance via job satisfaction and organizational commitment and analyzes whether these relationships vary according to whether the arrangement was set up through a formal process or negotiated informally between the employee and his or her line manager. Extant research has tended to focus on formal arrangements, however, informal arrangements are widespread and may better accommodate work‐life preferences, thereby potentially fostering more positive attitudes from employees. Survey data from 2,617 employees in four large organizations with well‐established flexible working policies are analyzed. Results from structural equation models show average positive indirect effects from informal flexible working, but also negative direct effects from formal flexible working. When two forms of flexible working amenable to being set up by both formal and informal means are examined separately, formal arrangements for flexibility over working hours are found to be negatively associated with performance, but also a source of greater job satisfaction; informal remote working arrangements have positive indirect effects via organizational commitment and job satisfaction on worker performance. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Temporary workers as real options

Firms experiencing or anticipating substantial workforce expansion face increasing pressure to accurately project the costs associated with human asset investments and potential future layoff requirements. With that in mind, the decision whether to take on temporary workers in lieu of hiring permanent employees is a decision that involves significant risk. Traditional valuation methods assume that investments are fully reversible and thus do not capture the idiosyncrasies of workforce management, in which investments are not fully reversible. However, real options theory offers managers the ability to consider irreversibility and to make workforce investment decisions under conditions of minimum uncertainty and maximum flexibility. We present real options theory as an especially useful means for managers to more accurately value human asset investment decisions, achieve expansion and defer commitment until future uncertainties can be at least partially resolved.     

Product Switching Cost and Strategic Flexibility

This paper examines the equilibrium degree of flexibility adopted by firms competing in oligopolistic product markets in which the value of flexibility arises from the initial presence of uncertainty over consumer preferences and its eventual resolution. The equilibrium choice of flexible mode depends on the following factors: (1) the cost of switching product design in response to revealed consumer preferences, (2) the difference in the acquisition costs of the flexible and dedicated modes, and (3) the precision of the ex ante information held by the firms regarding consumer preferences. The relationship between these factors and the equilibrium choice of modes is fully characterized.     

The influence of follower cultural orientation on attitudinal responses towards transformational leadership: evidence from the Chinese hospitality industry

In addition to extending the empirical investigation of the relationship between transformational leadership and follower affective commitment to the Chinese hospitality industry, this study makes a theoretical contribution by investigating the influence of individually held cultural values on this relationship. Building on previous research which has examined whether collectivism moderates the transformational leadership/affective commitment relationship, this study investigates the moderating effects of two additional cultural value orientations, namely power distance and uncertainty avoidance. Hierarchical regression analysis was utilized to analyse survey data from 398 employees of four Chinese hotels in Zhejiang Province. In addition to finding a positive relationship between transformational leadership and affective commitment, data analysis revealed that followers low in power distance exhibited higher levels of affective commitment when working under a transformational leader than those high in power distance. In addition, followers high in uncertainty avoidance and collectivism exhibited greater commitment when working under a transformational leader than those low in uncertainty avoidance and collectivism. These findings clearly indicate the importance of within-country cultural differences to the effectiveness of leaders in the workplace.     

What do We Know About Investment Under Uncertainty?

Recent theoretical developments relating to investment under uncertainty have highlighted the importance of irreversibility for the timing of investment expenditures and their expected returns. This has subsequently stimulated a growing empirical literature which examines uncertainty and threshold effects on investment behaviour. This paper presents a review of this literature. A variety of methods have been used to investigate the empirical implication of irreversibility in investment, the majority focusing on the relationship between investment flows and proxy measures of uncertainty. A general conclusion is that increased uncertainty, at both aggregate and disaggregate levels, leads to lower investment rates. This suggests that there is an irreversibility effect, under which greater uncertainty raises the value of the 'call option' to delay a commitment to investment. This effect appears to dominate any positive impact on investment arising from the fact that greater uncertainty, under certain circumstances, increases the marginal profitability of capital. The methods used raise a number of issues which call into question the reliability of the findings, and these are addressed in the paper. However, if such irreversibility effects are present, then their omission from traditional investment models casts doubt on the efficacy of such specifications. JEL Classification: D81, D92, E22     

Asymmetric positive feedback trading and stock pricing in China

Defining asymmetry of feedback trading (AFC) as the difference between buying-winners and selling-losers intensities, the paper investigates if AFC impacts stock pricing. We show that buying stocks with low AFC and selling stocks with high AFC makes significant positive returns after controlling traditional pricing factors. The return mainly comes from the long leg and cannot be simply attributed to either mispricing, liquidity, or risk premium. Further study shows that the negative impact of AFC on future stock return is reinforced with an increase in past returns, maximum daily return, relative valuation level, asset growth rate, or operating profit rate. As AFC represents retail trading intensity, the results imply that the inactiveness of retail investors may make price relative underreaction to good news and thus lead to positive expected stock return.     

Aggregate volatility expectations and threshold CAPM

We propose a volatility-based capital asset pricing model (V-CAPM) in which asset betas change discretely with respect to changes in investors’ expectations regarding near-term aggregate volatility. Using a novel measure to proxy uncertainty about expected changes in aggregate volatility, i.e. monthly range of the VIX index (RVIX), we find that portfolio betas change significantly when uncertainty about aggregate volatility expectations is beyond a certain threshold level. Due to changes in their market betas, small and value stocks are perceived as riskier than their big and growth counterparts in bad times, when uncertainty about aggregate volatility expectations is high. The proposed model yields a positive and significant market risk premium during periods when investors do not expect significant uncertainty in near-term aggregate volatility. Our findings support a volatility-based time-varying risk explanation.     

基于模糊层次的商标价值评估方法研究

基于商标价值的时效性、不确定性和模糊性等特征,本文分析了影响商标价值的主要因素,在此基础上构建商标价值评估指标体系,应用层次分析法计算各指标的权重,再尝试将模糊综合评价法应用于商标价值评估,以期为企业商标价值评估提供一种新思路。     

Good timing: The economics of optimal stopping

This paper presents an economic interpretation of the optimal “stopping” of perpetual project opportunities under both certainty and uncertainty. Prior to stopping, the expected rate of return from delay exceeds the rate of interest. The expected rate of return from delay is the sum of the expected rate of change in project value and the expected rate of change in the option premium associated with waiting. At stopping the expected rate of return from delay has fallen to the rate of interest. Viewing stopping in this way unifies the theoretical and practical insights of the theory of stopping under certainty and uncertainty.     

Optimal growth under model uncertainty

The optimal growth of a wealth process toward a goal is studied under ambiguous markets with first- and second-order moment uncertainties relating to stock returns. Optimal strategies and value functions are solved explicitly. A verification theorem is proved to show that the results solve the original stochastic control problem. Quantitative analyses of the investment strategies indicate that a rational individual with ambiguity aversion reduces market participation when return and volatility are uncorrelated, while there is an exception for synchronous return and volatility. The welfare of shorting a discounted reward is computed, which demonstrates that in an ambiguous pricing economy, investors can generate a positive premium via appropriate asset allocations.     

Time-based Experience and International Expansion: The Case of an Emerging Economy

Building on the organizational learning theory and international expansion process model, this paper examines the effect of time-based experience on multidimensional performance including return on equity, sales growth, competitive position, and asset efficiency of foreign-invested enterprises (FIEs) in an emerging economy (the People's Republic of China). The analysis, based on a recent survey of FIEs in China, demonstrates that time-based experience has a significantly positive effect on overall and individual dimensions of performance of FIEs. The underlying link between time-based experience and multidimensional performance is, however, moderated by the cultural distance between the host and home countries. Moreover, time-based experience moderates the positive impact of resource contributions, market commitment, and strategic innovativeness on venture performance.     

Leadership and information in a single‐shot collective action game: An experimental study

We consider a leader–follower mechanism in a collective action game, which exhibits both free riding and coordination problems. Leaders can persuade group cooperation by making a costly commitment to a project. Followers can choose to follow their leaders. The project's return can be transparent to all or only to the leaders. We show experimentally that when free riding is the dominant strategy of an informed subject, concentrating information in the hands of the leaders improves cooperation more effectively than a regime of information dispersal. The coordination problem, however, may be reduced more effectively in a regime of information dispersal. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The choice between greenfield investment and cross-border acquisition: A real option approach

The purpose of this study is to formalize the choice of market entry strategy for an individual multinational enterprise (MNE) from a dynamic perspective. It is argued that incorporating a suitable treatment of irreversibility, uncertainty and flexibility related to a MNEs investment decision gives further insights to the choice of cross-border acquisitions to greenfield investment as the preferred entry mode. In most cases, the initial entry strategy serves as a platform allowing the firm to make subsequent investments to exploit host-country advantages and capabilities. We allow for this by taking a two-step expansion strategy explicitly into account. The evolutionary process of the value of the foreign direct investment includes two stochastic elements as well as the timing that triggers the transition from export to foreign direct investment. The results suggest that uncertainty and future investment opportunities play an important role when it comes to transit from export to the first phase of the foreign direct investment commitment as well as have an impact on the choice of entry strategy.     

The political economy of exchange rate regime determination: Theory and evidence

This paper studies exchange rate regime choice from a positive perspective by modeling the interplay of monetary and fiscal policy, credibility and financial market microstructure as factors influencing the decision on de facto regime. The model shows how a small open economy reliant on foreign sources of financing is likely to opt for a stable regime. Furthermore, a stable political environment with a high degree of accountability is conducive to choosing a flexible regime. The findings suggest that flexible rather than fixed exchange rate regimes provide more fiscal discipline.     

Moments expansion densities for quantifying financial risk

We propose a novel semi-nonparametric distribution that is feasibly parameterized to represent the non-Gaussianities of the asset return distributions. Our Moments Expansion (ME) density presents gains in simplicity attributable to its innovative polynomials, which are defined by the difference between the nth power of the random variable and the nth moment of the density used as the basis. We show that the Gram–Charlier distribution is a particular case of the ME-type of densities. The latter being more tractable and easier to implement when quadratic transformations are used to ensure positiveness. In an empirical application to asset returns, the ME model outperforms both standard and non-Gaussian GARCH models along several risk forecasting dimensions.     

Contestability of the urban land market: an event study of Hong Kong land auctions

The traditional theory of urban land markets assumes perfect contestability—the absolute freedom of market entry—that compels developers to bid up the land rent to equal the economic profit from land use. This assumption, however, is empirically untested due to the difficulties in measuring the ex ante economic profit of land acquisition. We overcome these difficulties by applying the event-study methodology to Hong Kong government land auctions. When a developer acquires a site at a price below its fair market value, the rationality of the stock market entails a positive abnormal return on the developer’s stock. Our analysis shows evidence of positive expected abnormal returns, indicating an imperfectly contestable land market. We further show that the expected abnormal return increases with the site value and the government land disposal level but decreases with the property market liquidity.     

外部可验证的商誉减值与审计费用——基于业绩补偿承诺的视角

以2007—2017年完成重大资产重组的A股上市公司为研究样本,检验会计信息的可验证性对商誉减值影响审计费用的作用。研究发现,由于业绩补偿承诺增加了商誉减值信息的可验证性,相比于没有业绩补偿承诺的样本,商誉减值对审计费用的影响在有业绩补偿承诺的样本中更小。进一步地,区分业绩补偿承诺是否实现发现,相比于业绩补偿承诺未实现的样本,商誉减值对审计费用的影响在业绩补偿承诺实现的样本中更小。最后,通过对产权性质分组检验发现,相比于非国有企业,业绩补偿承诺对商誉减值影响审计费用的作用在国有企业中更小。     

Organisational flexibility and HRM in the hotel industry: evidence from Australia

The hotel industry is renowned for its poor pay and employment conditions and a low take‐up of HR practices. It is generally believed that the industry has relied on a lowcost, numerically flexible and disposable workforce. Recently, however, there has been debate concerning the extent to which managers in the hotel industry are embracing high commitment HRM and functionally flexible work practices. This study seeks to shed light on this question by analysing large‐scale survey and interview data on the hotel industry in Australia. While hotel workplaces in general continue to be associated with high levels of numerical and temporal flexibility and greater informality of HR policies, it was apparent that larger luxury hotels were adopting more systematic employee management techniques and strengthening their internal labour markets through functional flexibility initiatives. Such firms were also pursuing numerical and temporal flexibility strategies, although in rather different ways.     

Trading cost expectations: Evidence from S&P 500 index replacement stock announcements

This paper tests the effect on stock value of an expected change in future trading costs. The capitalized value of a reduction in trading costs is hypothesized to increase the stock value, a trading cost effect. Improved liquidity reduces trading costs. Inclusion as an S&P 500 Index replacement stock is an event hypothesized to increase liquidity. We use 114 observations between January 1, 1983 and October 12, 1989 of stocks added to the Index as replacements for stocks removed. The abnormal return of each stock is regressed against the ratio of the bidask spread to the price of the stock, the change in trading volume of the stock, and the open interest in the Index futures contracts at the close of the month prior to the replacement announcement. We find that the positive abnormal returns for replacement stocks are related to increased daily trading volume after inclusion in the Index. Further, the trading cost effect is proportional to percentage bid-ask spreads prior to inclusion. The trading cost effect increases as trading in derivatives of the Index increases. The volume and stock price changes after replacement are not transitory, indicating an improvement in liquidity. Three alternate hypotheses suggested in prior research to explain the abnormal returns for replacement stocks are tested. Testing each of the three models previously considered: price pressure, inelastic demand curves, and information, we find that none can be accepted with statistical confidence. The abnormal returns of Index replacement stocks are consistent with rational pricing of an anticipated reduction in future transaction costs. This anticipated reduction is capitalized in the value of the stock at the time of the replacement announcement. These results are consistent with a trading cost effect.