Gender policy and female employment: a CGE model for Italy

The gender integration in all areas of policy choices and at all stages of the decision-making process is strongly recommended by the European Union and represents an achievement that the Member States should accomplish when implementing policy measures. In a country like Italy, where the level of female labour participation is among the lowest in Europe, policy maker decisions should encourage and stimulate the demand for female labour without neglecting the global employment rate and income growth. The multisectoral analysis offers the possibility to bridge gender disaggregation within income formation and distribution from the production phase to the demand formation. In this perspective, this paper develops a gender-aware CGE model based on the gender-aware SAM for the Italian economy to evaluate the impact of different fiscal policies aimed to reduce female labour cost and trigger woman hiring in those sectors with high gender disparity.     

Optimal strategies in linear multisector models: Value function and optimality conditions

In this paper we study an optimal control problem with mixed constraints related to a multisector linear model with endogenous growth. The main aim is to establish a set of necessary and a set of sufficient conditions which are the basis for studying the qualitative properties of optimal trajectories. The presence of possibly degenerate mixed constraints, the unboundedness and non-strict convexity of the Hamiltonian, make the problem difficult to deal with. We develop first the dynamic programming approach, proving that the value function is a bilateral viscosity solution to the associated Hamilton–Jacobi–Bellman (HJB) equation. Then, using our results, we give a set of sufficient and a set of necessary optimality conditions which involve so-called co-state inclusion: this can be interpreted as the existence of a dual path of prices supporting the optimal path.     

Complementary strategies for policy analysis: Combining microeconomic and regional simulation models

This paper compares and contrasts the development of policy analysis models by two competing groups of researchers: microeconomic simulation and regional modellers. A brief survey of their separate paths of development suggests that each group has major contributions to make to the other's effort. A modelling effort, the KGB/RESIND model, which attempts to capitalize on this insight by linking an existing microsimulation model with regional model, is discussed. The potential benefits of this approach are illustrated through a simulation analysis of three alternative wage rate subsidy schemes.     

Allowing for uncertainty in exogenous shocks to CGE models: the case of a new renewable energy sector

The paper explores the importance of allowing for uncertainty in the magnitude of exogenous shocks in Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models. The shock examined is the introduction of a new onshore wind sector in North East Scotland. A simple analytical model is developed to show how, a priori, the size of the new sector (the model shock) is uncertain and asymmetrically distributed as a result of spatial correlation in costs and returns across potential development locations. The importance of allowing for this uncertainty is tested by comparing the results from a CGE model where the sector size is assumed known with certainty to those from a model where the sector size is a random variable with an asymmetric distribution. The results show the extent to which allowing for uncertainty can influence the magnitude of estimated impacts with some variables more sensitive to the uncertainty than others.     

Calibration procedure and the robustness of CGE models: Simulations with a model for Poland

Calibration is commonly used in order to specify a numerical computable general equilibrium model. As it involves the evaluation of model parameters on the basis of a single observation, there is a concern about the reliability of the results obtained from the model. A one-sector model for the Polish economy is specified and calibrated using various years as a benchmark equilibrium. Different assumptions are also made about some elasticity parameters. The model response is examined by simulating an increase in government expenditure. The results are quite robust to the choice of the base year but very sensitive to some elasticity parameters such as trade substitution elasticities.The financial support of the A.C.E. Project Econometric Inference into the Macroeconomic Dynamics of East European Economies is gratefully acknowledged.     

Building competency models: Approaches for HR professionals

Two widely used approaches to competency model building—the single-job approach and the “one-size-fits-all” approach—have limitations when competency models are needed for multiple jobs. This article describes the requirements of a multiple-job approach to competency model building: a set of common building block competencies, provision for customization of competencies for individual job models, defined levels of performance for each competency, and a quick, low-cost approach to model building. The article concludes with a discussion of the competencies needed to implement the multiple-job approach and of trends in the workplace that are making this approach more attractive. © 1996 by John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

从绿色建筑到低碳生态城

本文从回顾我国的建筑节能与绿色建筑发展历程入手,进而提出了正确的发展观和城市应对之道,即走中国特色的低碳城市发展模式必须从两个层次——绿色建筑和低碳生态城建设——同时入手。文章将低碳生态城分为四种主要类型,总结了我国在天津中新生态城、唐山曹妃甸等地进行的生态城建设初步探索与实践,在此基础上提出了我国低碳生态城发展的总体思路和规划建设的具体要求,以及最具潜力的低碳生态城的关键技术。     

An Income Tax Increase to Fund Higher Education: A CGE Analysis for Chile

An increase in income taxes to fund education was one of the demands made by the social movements that emerged in Chile in 2011. Currently, the Chilean Congress is enacting a tax reform to raise money for higher education. This study aims to show the dynamic effects on the general equilibrium of the Chilean economy under two alternative approaches: a subsidy to lower the price of higher education (public and private), and greater spending on public higher education to reduce household payments for education. The social accounting matrix (SAM) used to calibrate the computable general equilibrium (CGE) model has 38 economic sectors, including the production structure of private education and public education. The study mainly concludes that a subsidy policy has significant advantages over increasing higher public education spending, regarding its effects on variables such as GDP, investment, and household incomes, while both policies have a similar effect on poverty and income distribution.     

Central-city income redistribution and the flight to the suburbs: A stylized model

This paper characterizes the optimal tax policy of a central-city government whose goal is to redistribute income from the rich to the poor to maximize the intertemporal utility of the latter group. Since redistribution erodes the tax base by stimulating suburban flight on the part of the rich, choosing the optimal path for the income tax rate is a problem in optimal control. The nature of the solution to the problem is shown to depend crucially on the level of the discount rate and the time path of exogenous income for the poor.     

From circular business models to circular business ecosystems

The circular economy aims to minimize resource inputs and waste and emission outputs of the economy and its organizational subsystems. This can benefit both financial and sustainability performance of companies. To analyze industrial implementation of the concept, the prevalent unit of analysis on the firm level is currently the circular business model. Our investigation of nine Swedish biogas companies and one branch organization indicates a range of conceptual shortcomings that challenges this approach. Our comparative case analysis points towards circular ecosystems being a more appropriate concept to describe the high level of coordination between different stakeholders necessary to implement circular systems. This increases the suitability to analyze, plan, and communicate circular economy systems on an organizational level, especially if value chain integration is low. An ecosystem perspective can thus support innovation and entrepreneurship in the context of the circular economy.     

Price distortion in the transition process: A CGE analysis of China's case

The correct evaluation of price distortion is a prerequisite for designing the correct price reform policy which is of tremendous importance in the transitions process from a centrally planned economy to a market economy. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the advantages and shortcomings of various criteria for evaluating price distortion. Based on the characteristics of a two-tiered planned-market system in Chinese economic reform, a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model has been built to evaluate quantitatively the degree of price distortion in the prevailing price system and the effects of price adjustments in order to propose a reasonable price reform policy. The difference between the planned price and the equilibrium price seems to be a better indicator for evaluating the degree of price distortion than others. Furthermore, this difference provides more accurate feedback for price reform policies in order to ensure a stable and controllable price reform process.     

Mathematical analysis applied to school attendance areas

The objective of this paper is to develop a generalized mathematical model of pupil assignment within school districts. This model can then be used to examine various policies of student integration. Proposed bussing schemes, school location policies, educational parks, attendance boundaries, etc., can be tested for cost, travel time or other measures of efficiency. Extension to other areas of educational planning is feasible.

Mathematical programming techniques are used to assign resources (say school children) to facilities (say schools) subject to restrictions on facilities (say capacity limits) and resources (say a maximum travel time or a desirable range of school “mixtures”) so that a measure of performance, the “objective function” (say total cost or total time of travel) is optimized. The model is intended to allow examination of a wide range of objective functions and system constraints.     

From univariate- to multivariate analysis

This paper is intended for those who are interested in the didactics of multivariate analysis. The problem studied is: how can the transition from univariate - to multivariate analysis be made as simple as possible? Here we provide a simple “codingkey”, which works logically and is easy to remember and to handle. Some of the notations are adopted from lecture-notes by L. C. A. Corsten .     

Testing for a unique equilibrium in applied general equilibrium models

This paper introduces a new and computationally inexpensive method to test for uniqueness of equilibrium in exchange economies.     

The discrete Kalman filter applied to linear regression models: statistical considerations and an application

In this paper we show how the Kalman filter, which is a recursive estimation procedure, can be applied to the standard linear regression model. The resulting "Kalman estimator" is compared with the classical least-squares estimator.
The applicability and (dis)advantages of the filter are illustrated by means of a case study which consists of two parts. In the first part we apply the filter to a regression model with constant parameters and in the second part the filter is applied to a regression model with time-varying stochastic parameters. The prediction-powers of various "Kalman predictors" are compared with "least-squares predictors" by using T heil 's prediction-error coefficient U.     

Observation-driven models for realized variances and overnight returns applied to Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall forecasting

We present a new model to decompose total daily return volatility into high-frequency-based open-to-close volatility and a time-varying scaling factor. We use score-driven dynamics based on fat-tailed distributions to obtain robust volatility dynamics. Applying our new model to a 2001–2018 sample of individual stocks and stock indices, we find substantial in-sample variation of the daytime-to-total volatility ratio over time. We apply the model to out-of-sample forecasting, evaluated in terms of Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall. Models with a non-constant volatility ratio typically perform best, particularly in terms of Value-at-Risk. Our new model performs especially well during turbulent times. All results are generally stronger for individual stocks than for index returns.     

Some cumulative logit models for panel-data analysis: an application to a dynamic analysis of personal efficacy

This paper introduces novel cumulative logit models for the panel-data analysis of transitions among ordered states of a polytomous dependent variable. The models differ from conventional cumulative logit models in that they can distinguish between covariate effects on the odds of having an upward transition and covariate effects on the odds of having a downward transition in the ordered states of the dependent variable. The new models are applied to panel data on personal efficacy and are used to identify asymmetric patterns in the effects of divorce and unemployment on changes in the level of personal efficacy. The effects of the two events on increasing the odds of having a downward transition are shown to be greater than their effects on decreasing the odds of having an upward transition. Some distinct characteristics of the effects of each event are also reported.     

Estimating the impact of regional policy: A review of applied research methods

This paper provides a critical review of the methodological approaches that have been used to estimate the impacts of regional economic policies. A considerable variety of approaches are examined, ranging from questionnaire studies through single- and multiple-equation regression models to cost-benefits analysis, and attention is focused on the pros and cons of these approaches and the reliability of the impact assessments derived. The paper concludes with some suggestions for further research in this field.