Gender policy and female employment: a CGE model for Italy

The gender integration in all areas of policy choices and at all stages of the decision-making process is strongly recommended by the European Union and represents an achievement that the Member States should accomplish when implementing policy measures. In a country like Italy, where the level of female labour participation is among the lowest in Europe, policy maker decisions should encourage and stimulate the demand for female labour without neglecting the global employment rate and income growth. The multisectoral analysis offers the possibility to bridge gender disaggregation within income formation and distribution from the production phase to the demand formation. In this perspective, this paper develops a gender-aware CGE model based on the gender-aware SAM for the Italian economy to evaluate the impact of different fiscal policies aimed to reduce female labour cost and trigger woman hiring in those sectors with high gender disparity.     

Calibration procedure and the robustness of CGE models: Simulations with a model for Poland

Calibration is commonly used in order to specify a numerical computable general equilibrium model. As it involves the evaluation of model parameters on the basis of a single observation, there is a concern about the reliability of the results obtained from the model. A one-sector model for the Polish economy is specified and calibrated using various years as a benchmark equilibrium. Different assumptions are also made about some elasticity parameters. The model response is examined by simulating an increase in government expenditure. The results are quite robust to the choice of the base year but very sensitive to some elasticity parameters such as trade substitution elasticities.The financial support of the A.C.E. Project Econometric Inference into the Macroeconomic Dynamics of East European Economies is gratefully acknowledged.     

Regional integration among the unequal: a CGE model of NAFTA and the Central American republics

This paper addresses two questions. The first is the impact of alternative regional integration accords on trade, welfare and development in the small developing countries of Central America as well as the larger rich countries of NAFTA. The second concerns differences in options facing the Central American countries and what reformed institutional mechanisms might be needed for optimal regional arrangements.     

Carbon taxes and the double dividend hypothesis in a recursive-dynamic CGE model for Spain

A carbon tax is potentially a policy that can reduce CO₂ emissions and mitigate climate risks, at lowest economy-wide costs. We develop a dynamic CGE model for Spain to assess the economic and environmental effects of a carbon tax, and test the double dividend (DD) hypothesis. We simulate the impact of three carbon taxes: €10, €20 and €30 per ton of CO₂. For each tax, four ‘revenue recycling’ scenarios are examined: a reduction of taxes on capital, on labor, on value-added tax, and a scenario in which revenues are not recycled. We find a DD for taxes of €10/ton and lower, within five to seven years of implementation. We estimate an annual CO₂ emissions reduction of around 10% with this tax. Under some circumstances, the DD can be achieved for a tax of €20/ton. In any case, recycling revenues to cut pre-existing taxes reduces costs of imposing carbon taxes.     

Taxing air pollutants and carbon individually or jointly: results from a CGE model enriched by an emission abatement sector

We analyse the separate and collective impacts of emissions taxation to understand the internalisation effects of externalities. The analysis is carried out using a static computable general equilibrium model, with unemployment, bottom-up abatement technologies represented by a step function, and detailed emission coefficients. Environmental and health external costs are quantified using the ExternE’s Impact Pathway Approach. Emissions, as a result of environmental taxation, fall through reduced output, production factor substitution, and increased end of pipe abatement activity. The analysis shows that a full internalisation of environmental externalities can result in modest overall economic and environmental welfare gains. There are, however, differences in terms of employment and output, depending on what combination of taxes are applied, which sectors are covered, and how fiscal revenues are redistributed. Air quality benefits range from €35–75 per ton of CO₂ abated. Total environmental benefits always exceed GDP loss and the associated welfare loss.     

Robust games: theory and application to a Cournot duopoly model

In this paper, the robust game model proposed by Aghassi and Bertsimas (Math Program Ser B 107:231–273, 2006) for matrix games is extended to games with a broader class of payoff functions. This is a distribution-free model of incomplete information for finite games where players adopt a robust-optimization approach to contend with payoff uncertainty. They are called robust players and seek the maximum guaranteed payoff given the strategy of the others. Consistently with this decision criterion, a set of strategies is an equilibrium, robust-optimization equilibrium, if each player’s strategy is a best response to the other player’s strategies, under the worst-case scenarios. The aim of the paper is twofold. In the first part, we provide robust-optimization equilibrium’s existence result for a quite general class of games and we prove that it exists a suitable value \(\epsilon \) such that robust-optimization equilibria are a subset of \(\epsilon \)-Nash equilibria of the nominal version, i.e., without uncertainty, of the robust game. This provides a theoretical motivation for the robust approach, as it provides new insight and a rational agent motivation for \(\epsilon \)-Nash equilibrium. In the last part, we propose an application of the theory to a classical Cournot duopoly model which shows significant differences between the robust game and its nominal version.     

Election outcomes and economic conditions: An application of a logit model

In this paper the author examines the impact of macroeconomic conditions on the probability of the incumbent party winning a gubernatorial election. Using a sample of 265 gubernatorial elections held during the 1970–1988 period, the findings of this study indicate that the incumbent party’s probability of victory is not significantly affected by either state or national macroeconomic conditions. The author also finds that neither the unemployment rate nor per capita income growth affect the incumbent party’s probability of winning an election.     

Business ethics: A model to position a relative business ethics decision and a model to strengthen its application

The maxims of normative ethics are often in conflict. Thus business practitioners facing ethical questions often find themselves operating in the area of relative ethics. There are arguably two dimensions to this area. One lies on a spectrum from weak companies in highly competitive industries to strong companies in protected industries. The second dimension places the would-be ethical manager in awkward situations imposed from either the hierarchy or from corrupt markets. This article develops an analysis model to portray this relative ethics dilemma. Then, an argument is made that the more the individual manager practices good ethics, the higher the level of ethics the individual is able to maintain. This article proposes an adaptation of the 1950s feedback model of group dynamics known as the “Johari Window” to show this improvement in ethical behavior.     

不同汇率机制下石油价格波动的金融CGE模型分析

随着中国对进口石油依赖度的逐渐增大,国际石油价格的波动对经济系统的冲击越来越受到政府部门和中外学者的密切关注.为了从数量上把握冲击的效果,本文基于一个实物部门与金融部门相统合的中国金融可计算性一般均衡(CGE)模型,结合三种不同的汇率机制(固定汇率、部分浮动汇率、完全浮动汇率)分别从宏观和产业层面定量分析石油价格波动对经济系统影响的综合效果,提出并评价应对石油价格波动的措施和建议,并提出相关政策含义.     

财政民生支出CGE模型闭合条件的选择与检验

CGE模型闭合条件是反映模型经济特性和影响模拟结果的关键方面,其选择也多凭建模者主观判断。本文构建财政民生支出CGE模型,运用计量经济方法对其45种闭合条件下居民收入变化的模拟结果进行实证和检验。研究发现,部分闭合条件下的CGE模型结果与相应VAR模型脉冲冲击后各个变量响应的结果存在较大程度的接近,这些结果与我国当前经济状况相符,且更为准确,从而证明在CGE建模时可以借助计量经济方法进行闭合条件的选择。     

Fiscal reform,bank solvency,and the law of unintended consequences: a CGE analysis of Mexico

Whether due to random economic shocks or deliberate policy measures, sudden relative price changes can lower bank solvency. Whereas “winners”—i.e., those sectors experiencing improved net prices for their output—aren’t obliged to share their good fortune with banks, “losers” my share their bad fortune by electing to default on bank loans. This paper presents a disaggregated dynamic computable general equilibrium model, used to analyze specifically how current policy proposals to stimulate savings might affect solvency in different sectors. We find surprising capital losses in pesos for two of the three policies simulated, which would leave domestic currency debtors substantially worse off.     

Trade Liberalization and Poverty in Ecuador: A CGE Macro-Microsimulation Analysis

Cross-country analysis of the aggregate growth-poverty link is likely to miss important country-specific detail and possible offsetting forces in the underlying labour market adjustment process. This paper combines a CGE model analysis with a microsimulations approach to analyse the effects of trade liberalization on poverty and income distribution in Ecuador. The CGE model enables us to disentangle the general equilibrium effects of various trade policy scenarios on sector output, employment, factor incomes and household consumption. However, as is typical of CGE models, this analysis only provides distribution results for fairly aggregated groups of workers and a reduced number of representative households. The microsimulations approach adds the full distribution to the analysis and allows simulation of the effects of trade reform on the job status and remuneration of individual workers and thereby on household income distribution and poverty. The macro- microsimulation results indicate that the trade opening in Ecuador induced mild aggregate welfare gains, but rising income inequality due to rising wage differentials between skilled and unskilled workers implies virtually no poverty-reducing effect from trade liberalization.     

Allowing for uncertainty in exogenous shocks to CGE models: the case of a new renewable energy sector

The paper explores the importance of allowing for uncertainty in the magnitude of exogenous shocks in Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models. The shock examined is the introduction of a new onshore wind sector in North East Scotland. A simple analytical model is developed to show how, a priori, the size of the new sector (the model shock) is uncertain and asymmetrically distributed as a result of spatial correlation in costs and returns across potential development locations. The importance of allowing for this uncertainty is tested by comparing the results from a CGE model where the sector size is assumed known with certainty to those from a model where the sector size is a random variable with an asymmetric distribution. The results show the extent to which allowing for uncertainty can influence the magnitude of estimated impacts with some variables more sensitive to the uncertainty than others.     

Price distortion in the transition process: A CGE analysis of China's case

The correct evaluation of price distortion is a prerequisite for designing the correct price reform policy which is of tremendous importance in the transitions process from a centrally planned economy to a market economy. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the advantages and shortcomings of various criteria for evaluating price distortion. Based on the characteristics of a two-tiered planned-market system in Chinese economic reform, a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model has been built to evaluate quantitatively the degree of price distortion in the prevailing price system and the effects of price adjustments in order to propose a reasonable price reform policy. The difference between the planned price and the equilibrium price seems to be a better indicator for evaluating the degree of price distortion than others. Furthermore, this difference provides more accurate feedback for price reform policies in order to ensure a stable and controllable price reform process.     

Endogenous capital utilization in a short-run production model: Theory and an empiral application

In order to be consistent with production theory, empirical factor demand analyses must transform capital stock data into information about the flows of capital services derived from the stock. This requires information about the utilization rate which is, however, not generally available. This paper develops and estimates a model of a capital using firm that one can implement using observable data. Capital utilization and depreciation are endogenous and are determined by profit maximization. The consistency of the model with the data is tested by checking whether the estimated parameters satisfy the regularity conditions imposed by the theory. The validity of the customary specification of an exogenous, price-independent rate of depreciation is also tested.     

基于CGE模型对中国基础设施建设的减贫效应分析

本文构造了一个含有详细居民分组的中国可计算一般均衡（CGE）模型，对城乡分割的劳动力市场、各类家庭的劳动力供给行为等进行了深入刻画。通过分别在长期和短期的时间框架下进行模拟分析，我们发现：降低转移成本、增加农村转移劳动力在城市就业是促进基础设施发挥减贫作用的关键环节。     

CDF_CGE模型基本结构及应用

本文建立了基于1997年数据的中国动态金融CGE模型（China’s Dynamic Financial CGE Model，CDF_CGE），文章的内容包括金融社会核算矩阵（Financial Social Accounting Matrix，FSAM）的结构、模型的总体结构以及模型对我国经济2001-2010间的中期预测。