On the speed and boundaries of structural adjustment when fiscal policy is tight

Governments of transition economies are subject to fiscal constraints (e.g. credit constraints). However, exaggerated fiscal discipline might feed into the structural adjustment process. The government designs and times the privatisation programme, yet may find itself in a fiscal squeeze because restructuring moves costs from firms to the public budget. This paper models this problem in a simple dynamic set-up. Several distinct reform strategies, which differ in the speed and level of structural adjustment, are identified. Tight fiscal discipline in early stages of transition may delay or halt privatisation. A different sequencing of policy or different taxation, benefits, and privatisation sales rules, can rectify this problem.     

货币政策传导机制:一个纳入非正式金融变量的结构分析

本文立足于中国当前金融结构特点,借助纳入非正式金融变量的资产组合分析框架,从资产结构的变化、微观经济个体行为的变化来分析中国货币政策传导机制。提出多层次资本市场的建立和完善,利率、汇率等资产价格形成的市场化对于货币政策的传导具有重要的润滑作用。     

美国的城市扩张规制及其演变

通过分析开发许可程序基本特征的演化,从郊区化中社会矛盾的加剧与政策目标的多元化、土地开发机制的转变、政府财政压力与行政裁量权的扩张、公众参与下政策议题的转变等方面,把握规划调控政策的发展方向及其社会经济背景,进而深入剖析开发许可手段和内容的转变,探讨美国开发许可制度的发展趋势。     

论当前的宏观需求调控与税收政策调整

六年来 ,我国国民经济运行中出现的供过于求局面 ,既标志着我国曾长期存在的短缺状态的结束 ,也表明供求平衡的难点已由供给转向需求。在当前的需求调控中 ,正确认识税收政策作为总量政策与结构政策所具有的宏观调控功能 ,通过税制结构与税负结构的调整 ,税制体系的完善与税制本身的规范 ,以及流转税价税模式的转变 ,税收政策可以从中发挥重要的作用     

Screening methods in policy analysis

A classification of screening methods is proposed into those based upon dominance and those based upon decision criteria. Examples from each class are described but the main point of the paper is to show that this classification has important implications for how the screened subset of decision options can be used in the policy-making context.     

On the role of policy interventions in structural change and economic development: The case of postwar Japan

In this paper, we study the structural change occurring in Japan's post-World War II era of rapid economic growth. We use a two-sector neoclassical growth model with government policies to analyze the evolution of the Japanese economy in this period and to assess the role of such policies. Our model is able to replicate the empirical behavior of the main macroeconomic variables. Three findings emerge from our analysis. First, neither price and investment subsidies to the agricultural sector, nor industrial policy plays a crucial role in the rapid postwar growth. Second, had there existed a labor migration barrier, the negative long-run level effect on output would have been substantial. Finally, TFP in non-agricultural sector is mostly responsible for the rapid growth of Japan in the post-war period.     

财政分权体制下地区产业结构调整的对策

我国经济发展进入阶段以来,产业结构调整升级已经逐步成为提质增效的重要抓手。财政分权改革在赋予各级地方政府更多自主决策权的同时,极易形成政府和官员主导型经济。为避免地方政府和官员的产业投资决策过度偏离中央政府的政策意图,破除产业结构调整升级的阻碍,可行之策是改进现行政绩考核体系、规范政府行为、实施区域差别性产业政策。     

Promoting investment in the Turkish construction sector: a structural path analysis

The construction sector in Turkey boomed in the period between the turn of the millennium and the onset of the global crisis. This paper studies the employment generation effects of growth of this sector, taking into account that it not only depends on domestic production factors but also on imported inputs. In order to unravel the interactions of the construction sector with the rest of the economy, structural path analysis of both labour and imported intermediate input demand generation is used based on the 2002 and 2009 WIOD data for Turkey. The findings indicate that labour linkages weakened between 2002 and 2009, while import linkages became slightly stronger. The sectors that have played key roles in this are identified, as are the linkages between these. The findings have implications for the persistent unemployment and current account deficits in Turkey.     

Nicaragua and the Dead Hand of Planning

Daniel Ortega (above), President of Nicaragua, attracted attention after the Sandanista take-over by declaring his intention to allow state and market to co-exist. But his increased emphasis on the role of the state has severely impaired the wealth-creating capacity of the attenuated private sector. Nick Elliott, Editor of The Moderate, surveys the damaging effects of Nicaraguan socialism.     

论环境与国际贸易问题及我国贸易政策的调整

环境与国际贸易是经济发展中一对相互矛盾相互促进的两个方面,而近几年来由环境带来的环境壁垒却对国际贸易产生了很大影响。为使两者协调发展,各国的贸易政策必须及时进行调整。文中分析了环境与贸易的关系和环境对贸易的影响,以及国际贸易中所产生的环境壁垒的深层根源。在此基础上,对我国的对外贸易政策提出切实的建议。     

Fiscal policy and asset markets: A semiparametric analysis

Using a flexible semiparametric varying coefficient model specification, this paper examines the role of fiscal policy on the US asset markets (stocks, corporate and treasury bonds). We consider two possible roles of fiscal deficits (or surpluses): as a separate direct information variable and as a (indirect) conditioning information variable indicating binding constraints on monetary policy actions. The results show that the impact of monetary policy on the stock market varies, depending on fiscal expansion or contraction. The impact of fiscal policy on corporate and treasury bond yields follow similar patterns as in the equity market. The results are consistent with the notion of strong interdependence between monetary and fiscal policies.     

The policy mix in the US and EMU: Evidence from a SVAR analysis

We use a SVAR approach to the effects of fiscal and monetary policies, as well as their interactions (policy mix) for the US and the Euro Area (EMU). Overall, our results show that these two cases are different from each other. First, while in the case of the US there is evidence of Keynesian monetary policy, the same is not true in the case of the EMU. Second, considering the effects of the global economic and financial crisis, there is evidence of non-Keynesian fiscal policy in the case of the EMU (expansionary fiscal consolidation), while it does not hold in the case of the US. Third, there is evidence supporting the traditional inverse relationship between monetary policy interest rates and inflation in the case of the US, whereas in the case of the EMU there is a price puzzle (frequent in SVAR studies). Fourth, the baseline model seems to be robust in the case of the US, when considering the effects of the economic and financial crisis 2007–2009, while the opposite holds in the case of the EMU. However, in both cases, the policies seem to act as complements. Another similarity appears when analysing the relationship between public spending and taxation, where there is evidence supporting a fiscal retrenchment.     

The role of constraints in policy analysis

The new discipline of policy analysis applies the specialized knowledge of economics, sociology, organization theory, and all the other social sciences to the task of designing and implementing viable socio-economics programs. This paper is a contribution to the methodology of policy analysis. Contrary to widely held views, social scientists can usefully participate in the making of public policy not by setting goals or giving expression to the “needs” of particular groups, but rather, by pointing out all the constraints (economic, sociological, organizational, etc.), which effectively limit the set of feasible alternatives. The theoretical explanation of these limitations is a fundamental task of applied social science. The systematic exploration of the region of feasibility should form the core of all policy analyses. This exploration can be assisted by the proposed distinction between logical, empirical and policy constraints corresponding, respectively, to impossibility theorems, empirical theories or hypotheses, and preliminary decisions or conventions. The significance of the distinction is indicated by some examples, and the different conditions of testability are noted. Some methodological problems of socio-economic planning are also examined. It is shown that the nature of a program is determined by the character of the crucial constraints rather than by the ostensible objectives. Questions of program implementation cannot be treated separately from planning and resources allocation. All the constraints, including organizational and administrative ones, must be considered in the moment of decision. An alternative which appears satisfactory in relation to a limited number of conditions may turn out to be quite bad with respect to the complete set of constraints.