高校牵头国家重大科技项目科研组织模式研究——以北航长鹰无人机为例

新中国成立以来,国家在航空航天、通信计算机、智能制造、新材料等多个领域先后推出一系列重大科技项目,致力于突破关键技术、保障国防安全、推动社会经济发展。20世纪90年代末,我国将中高空长航时无人机研发作为重大战略性科技项目,在几乎一穷二白的困境下由高校牵头开展原型机自主研制并最终取得成功。以具有划时代意义的长鹰无人机研制历程为例,基于扎根理论归纳国家重大科技项目特征及科研组织模式,探讨模式中的关键组成要素及相互作用关系。结果发现,该模式以面向国家战略需求导向的大项目为牵引,在跨建制、跨单位、跨系统建成的国家队与产学研合作大平台的相互作用下,促成总体目标实现、人才队伍培养、产业发展带动等重大成果的正向激励反馈。在新时代背景下,该研究结论能为高校服务国家重大战略需求、更好地发挥科技创新生力军作用提供有价值的实践路径和管理经验。     

The Economic Impacts of a New Dam in South-East Queensland

South-East Queensland has combined the most rapid population growth in Australia with rainfall that has persisted below average for many years. The Queensland Government has responded with a number of plans to supplement existing water supplies in the region. This paper uses a multiregional, dynamic CGE model to estimate the regional impacts of construction of Traveston dam. The magnitude of net welfare benefits of the project depends on underlying assumptions concerning future rainfall patterns. All the mainland state governments are proposing water supply augmentation measures. It is probable that a number of these projects are not justifiable on economic grounds.     

Exploring welfare implications of resource equivalency analysis in natural resource damage assessments

Resource equivalency analysis (REA) has become the dominant method for calculating natural resource damages for biological injuries from pollution incidents. This methodology compares resources lost as a result of an incident to benefits that can be gained from a habitat or wildlife restoration project. Compensation is evaluated in terms of resource services instead of market currency. Recently, this approach has been questioned regarding its ability to provide adequate compensation based on economic welfare principles. The following paper examines these critiques and develops a model to quantify the welfare implications of using REA when some of its implicit assumptions are violated.We focus on the situation where compensatory restoration projects provide services that are comparable to those lost as a result of an incident. We examine simulation scenarios where the public has heterogeneous preferences for resources and where resource values change over time. Using the Hicks-Kaldor criterion, we find that the traditional REA provides an acceptable approximation of aggregate compensation for a reasonably wide range of economic and biological parameter combinations.     

联合国IFAD援华项目的成效、问题与对策

通过对吉林、安徽、陕西、青海等省联合国IFAD援华项目区的实地调研以及对9个省(市)实施的IFAD援华项目的综合评价,分析了联合国IFAD援华项目取得的效益,指出了联合国IFAD援华项目实施过程中出现的主要问题,并就如何进一步提高联合国IFAD援华项目的管理水平提出了相应的对策建议.     

Integrating future-oriented technology analysis and risk assessment methodologies

This paper examines the potential of integrating future-oriented technology analysis (FTA) with risk assessment methodologies and tools, with the aim of developing more proactive risk assessments and also systematically including risk assessment in future-oriented technology analysis. The similarities and development challenges of foresight, Technology Analysis (TA) and risk assessment methodologies are discussed in the light of the empirical material gathered from projects performed at VTT. Among the projects are IRRIIS project focusing on risk assessment of critical infrastructures, INNORISK project aiming at managing opportunities, risk and uncertainties in new business creation and a project related to the climate change (CES). The case projects are positioned according to their important design dimensions (informative vs. instrumental outcomes; consensual vs. diverse future perspectives, extensive vs. exclusive stakeholder involvement, and autonomous vs. fixed management). The common and complementary features of FTA and risk assessment are discussed, suggesting new ways to evolve the modular design when integrating FTA and risk assessment methodologies and tools.     

An economic reappraisal of the Melamchi water supply project - Kathmandu,Nepal

This paper examines whether the benefits of the Melamchi water supply project in Nepal are likely to exceed its costs, assuming that high-quality municipal water services can be delivered to households and firms in the urbanized part of the Kathmandu Valley. Monte Carlo simulations are used to explore the sensitivity of the net present value and economic internal rate of return calculations to a wide range of assumptions and input parameters. We find that extreme assumptions are not required to generate large differences in economic feasibility; quite plausible differences in the values of some key parameters can lead to large differences in the economic attractiveness of the project. The results reveal that the three most important influences on net present value and economic internal rate of return are: (i) the discount rate and discounting procedure; (ii) the magnitude of monthly benefits for households connected to the new water system; and (iii) the annual growth rate in monthly benefits of connected households after the project comes on line. Our contribution lies in illustrating, with an actual case study in a developing country, the degree to which cost-benefit calculations of large infrastructure projects are influenced by key economic modeling assumptions and input parameters.JEL Classification: H42, H43, H54, Q25, Q56 Correspondence to: Dale WhittingtonWe would especially like to thank Keiichi Tamaki (ADB) and Ian Hill (Acres International) for their guidance and assistance with this project. We would also like to thank the following individuals for their help during our mission to Kathmandu in May, 2003: Richard W. A. Vokes, Kathie M. Julian, Raj Kumar Malla, Madan Shankar Shrestha, Suman Prasad Sharma and Noor Kumar Tamrakar.     

Economists,social reformers,and prophets: a feminist critique of economic efficiency

This article examines the concept of Pareto optimality, bringing to light some of its implicit assumptions about the nature of human agency, work, and gender. It explores the androcentric character of the economic agent and the gendered nature of neoclassical models in relation to the historical development of the concept of economic efficiency during the late 1930s. The thrust toward the development of Pareto optimality as a scientific criterion of economic welfare was a response to the methodological tensions between the clearly political nature of economics and the scientific aspirations of economists. An examination of the debates from this period illuminates some of the values that became embedded in neoclassical economics, and which are now hidden by the masks of mathematics and abstraction.     

Efficiency, equity, and sustainability in a water quantity-quality optimization model in the Rio Grande basin

Integrated hydrologic and economic optimization models at the basin scale provide a framework for policy design, implementation, and evaluation in water-stressed basins. Despite the considerable potential that basin scale analysis offers, few basin-wide studies have examined tradeoffs among efficiency, equity, and sustainability when analyzing the design of water resource programs. This paper develops a basin scale framework to identify hydrologic and economic impacts of alternative water pricing programs that comply with environmental regulations for protecting water quality. Key issues are examined that confront integrated hydroeconomic basin models: linking water and economics, spatial and temporal scale integration, and quantity-quality relationships. Economic efficiency is defined and measured for each of two urban water pricing arrangements that comply with urban water quality protection regulations. Alternative measures of equity are analyzed in both spatial and temporal dimensions. Sustainability is evaluated physically for protecting the water supply and financially for long-term revenue viability. The approach is illustrated from results of a dynamic nonlinear programming optimization model of water use in North America's Rio Grande basin. The model optimizes the net present value of the basin's total economic benefits subject to constraints on equity, sustainability, hydrology, and institutions. It is applied to assess impacts of a two-tiered pricing program that complies with recently implemented drinking water quality standards for the basin's two largest U.S. cities: Albuquerque, New Mexico, and El Paso, Texas. Results suggest that two-tiered pricing of urban water supply has considerable potential to perform well in meeting the aims of efficiency, equity, and sustainability. Findings provide a general framework for designing water pricing programs that comply with environmental regulations.     

Can good projects succeed in bad communities?

The lack of “social capital” is frequently given as an explanation for why communities perform poorly. Yet to what extent can project design compensate for these community-specific constraints? I address this question by examining determinants of collective success in a costly problem for developing economies — the upkeep of local public goods. It is often difficult to obtain reliable outcome measures for comparable collective tasks across well-defined communities. In order to address this I conducted detailed surveys of community-maintained infrastructure projects in Northern Pakistan. The findings show that while community-specific constraints do matter, their impact can be mitigated by better project design. Inequality, social fragmentation, and lack of leadership in the community do have adverse consequences but these can be overcome by changes in project complexity, community participation, and return distribution. Moreover, the evidence suggests that better design matters even more for communities with poorer attributes. The use of community fixed effects and instrumental variables offers a significant improvement in empirical identification over previous studies. These results provide evidence that appropriate design can enable projects to succeed even in “bad” communities.     

R&D项目风险管理的实证研究

近年来我国企业特别是高新科技企业纷纷加大了对RD活动的投入力度,但相对滞后的RD投资中风险项目的管理方法已经不再适用于如今具有高技术特征的RD投资的快速发展。故而,文章在深入分析RD投资中风险项目影响因素的基础上,提出了不确定环境下的RD投资项目的风险管理框架,利用QFD软件平台上的风险管理框架评估实验方法,邀请行波型超声电动机研发中的实验人员分组进行了风险评估决策对比实验。最终,对该项目运行的QFD风险管理框架的试验和评估结果表明,QFD软件平台不仅能够在客户需求数量及风险类别数量方面为决策者提供较为充足的现实数据还能大大减少决策者执行决策所耗费的时间。对此,文章认为QFD风险管理方法能够行之有效地影响到决策者决策的执行,可被广大投资商引为一种灵活有效的RD项目风险及不确定性管理办法。     

Technology assessment: Impact of high-tech engineering research on energy consumption

A technology assessment (TA) program was launched in Switzerland in 1991. One project in the series of pilot projects was meant to assess the impact of so-called LESIT technologies on energy consumption. (LESIT was a priority research program and a German acronym for power electronics, systems and information technology.) In this paper the institutional environment, applied methods and main results of the TA study are summarised. One of the questions that arose was whether it is reasonable to expect a high-tech engineering research program to serve any societal goals other than the more immediate technical and economic goals the research partners in university and industry are accustomed to follow. It was found that without special efforts this expectation was not realistic. Politically desirable goals are best served when enough emphasis, time, and money are given to the process of bringing together research partners from academia and industry who all have a (self-serving) interest in furthering the politically desirable goal and then support their collaboration.     

A model of the innovation-adaptation mechanism driving economic dynamics: a micro representation

The model that this paper sets out is based on a combination of the Schumpeterian creative destruction and the neo-Austrian notion of market process. It gives a formalization of the succession innovation-structural organization and its endogenous mechanism, crucial to explain economic growth and development. More in particular, the essay gives an explanation of innovation, endogenous uncertainty and describes the way equilibrating and disequilibrating processes are intertwined and operate. It also shows that a representation of this dynamic competition process cannot do without some appropriate development on entrepreneurship and its links with uncertainty. Finally, some simulations with the proposed model are providedJEL Classification: M13, O31, D80, E32, O12I am indebted to C. R. Wymer for his advice and for the computer programs that have permitted the simulation of the model in this paper, including choice and substitutions of variables and specification of inequality conditions. These programs form part of the WYSEA (System Estimation and Analysis) package.     

A model of embodied technical change and employment

A “vintage” framework is described for studying the effects of technical change on economic development, particular attention being given to the level of employment. The framework is based on the notion that investment in new techniques is a major mechanism through which improvements in productivity are obtained. With the specification of demand and investment functions, a simple dynamic model is developed by means of which the effects of both continuous and discontinuous technical changes can be investigated, under various assumptions regarding the response of other economic variables to such changes. It is shown that a variety of behavioral characteristics are produced when technical change does not occur smoothly; in particular, it is suggested that variations in rates of technical change may act as a determinant of fluctuations in other economic variables.     

Why uncertainty matters: discounting under intertemporal risk aversion and ambiguity

Uncertainty has an almost negligible impact on project value in the standard economic model. I show that a comprehensive evaluation of uncertainty and uncertainty attitude changes this picture fundamentally. The illustration of this result relies on the discount rate, which is the crucial determinant in balancing immediate costs against future benefits, and the single most important determinant of optimal mitigation policies in the integrated assessment of climate change. First, the paper removes an implicit assumption of (intertemporal or intrinsic) risk neutrality from the standard economic model. Second, the paper introduces aversion to non-risk uncertainty (ambiguity). I show a close formal similarity between the model of intertemporal risk aversion, which is a reformulation of the widespread Epstein–Zin–Weil model, and a recent model of smooth ambiguity aversion. I merge the models, achieving a threefold disentanglement between risk aversion, ambiguity aversion, and the propensity to smooth consumption over time.     

Invention, innovation, and economic evolution

This paper provides a synopsis of logic and adventure in the process of fundamental innovation. The contemporary viewpoint of R&D management would have us believe that innovation is a rational process subject to prediction, regulation, and control. The alternative viewpoint is advanced here that innovation is neither merely a mechanical nor solely a goal-driven process. In reality, innovative systems are inherently untidy systems. The most important clue to any possible uniformity in the behavior of such systems is to be found in their very multiformity. Thus, the process of innovation is first and foremost a self-organizing process. This theory, based on the author's work of the past several years in this area, has led to identification and explanation of several lawlike relationships in the origin of fundamental technical breakthroughs, transfer of technical knowledge, and long-term economic evolution. There are a number of important implications of these regularities for technology and science policy during 1980s and beyond. First, success in innovation critically depends upon pursuing several small-scale experimental projects at the same time. Thus popular attempts to avoid duplication in R&D activity constitute what is really a penny-wise but pound-foolish policy. Second, nothing is more important in the future than to promote greater decentralization in the conduct of R&D enterprise. Third, one way out of the current worldwide economic stagnation is to be found in the development of a few, already available, fundamental innovations such as those in the microelectronics, solar energy, and biotechnology fields rather than in the eternal search for more technical breakthroughs. Thus the need in the future is not so much for disproportionate increase in basic research in relation to technological development effort as it is for striking a congruence between various components of R&D activity.     

对设计阶段工程造价管理的探析

设计阶段工程造价管理是建设工程在设计阶段按照经济规律的要求,根据市场经济发展,利用科学管理方法和先进的管理手段合理地确定工程造价和有效的控制投资,保证有限的建设资金和物质资源得到合理的充分利用。     

资金供给、技术能力与技术转移绩效——国家重点研发计划多群组结构方程模型分析

国家重点研发计划对全产业链的强调使得研究其技术转移尤为必要。参考资源基础理论和动态能力理论，构建“资金供给—技术积累规模—技术转移能力—技术转移绩效”国家重点研发计划技术转移模型。应用结构方程模型进行检验，使用多群组结构方程模型探讨不同研究项目各因素对技术转移绩效的不同影响。结果发现：(1)国家重点研发计划技术转移绩效总体处于较高水平；(2)技术转移能力是国家重点研发计划技术转移绩效最直接、最有力的影响因素，资金供给是技术转移绩效的重要支撑；(3)技术积累规模难以直接影响技术转移绩效，但在技术转移绩效影响机理中发挥重要传导作用，是技术转移的基础性技术资源；(4)不同项目类型影响效应存在显著差异。研究结论可为政府、项目参与单位、首席科学家和普通参与者有效促进科技项目技术转移提供参考依据。     

ESTEEM: Managing societal acceptance in new energy projects : A toolbox method for project managers

There is now a large literature dealing with the policy question of public participation in technical choice and technology assessment (TA). Files such as the mad cow crisis, genetically modified food, and the emerging nanotechnologies have been edified into a public problem, and have given place to a number of experiments and reviews about participatory arrangements. Much less attention has been devoted so far to the application of the TA framework to more local and limited projects-not yet and maybe never reaching the public problem status-and the management of their societal dimensions. Among them, new energy technology represents a very interesting field for investigation: many of the new energy enjoy a global positive public image whereas the local implementation of their implantation often raises societal questions and oppositions. This paper describes an original experiment conducted in the field of new energy technologies during which a participatory technology assessment inspired approach was applied to a number of individual and local projects. A framework methodology called ESTEEM was developed to facilitate such participatory process to take place, and it was tested and evaluated in 5 projects located in 5 different countries over Europe. A detailed discussion of the ESTEEM method and its application to one case study, a Carbon Sequestration project in The Netherlands, is provided. We show that a major question in the application in such participatory framework is to establish a reflective practice of project management based on situated and constructive interactions between project promoters and project stakeholders.     

Sustainability,Social Discount Rates and the Selection of Project Procurement Method

The notion of sustainability has lead to the evaluation of public projects in terms of wider socio-economic and environmental benefits. The Cost Benefit Analysis and its respective, Social Discount Rate (SDR), is of crucial importance, especially when the advantages of private financing are to be demonstrated in comparison with the alternative traditional procurement of works and services. The SDR seen as a measure of a country’s value of future costs and benefits is related to the notion of promoted sustainability. The impact of smaller and declining SDRs on project selection is investigated, and a conceptual formulation concerning the selection of the project procurement method is presented. The modelled formulation will assist central and local governments in assessing projects and the potential benefit of private financing.