What Drives Housing Markets: Fundamentals or Bubbles?

This study applies the dynamic Gordon growth model which is in the circumstance of rational bubbles to decompose log price-rent ratio into three parts, i.e., rational bubbles, discounted expected future rent growth rates and discounted expected future returns. The latter two terms represent housing fundamentals. The magnitudes of the components of price-rent ratio’s variance are estimated to distinguish the relative impact of the three parts on housing prices. Using time series data from the housing markets in the four largest cities in China (1991:Q1–2011:Q1 for Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen; 1993:Q2–2011:Q1 for Beijing), this paper presents a number of empirical findings: (a) the variance of rational bubbles is much larger than the variance of price-rent ratio, and rational bubbles contribute more fluctuations directly to price-rent ratio than the expected returns or the expected rent growth rates do; (b) the covariance between rational bubbles and expected returns or expected rent growth rates is also large; (c) the positive covariance of rational bubbles and expected returns implies that high expected returns coexist with bubbles, which differs from previous findings that lower expected returns drive asset prices; (d) the negative covariance of rational bubbles and expected rent growth rates indicates that the larger the bubbles are, the lower the expected rent growth rates are; (e) the positive covariance of expected returns and expected rent growth rates reveals under-reaction of the housing markets to rents.     

What Drives the Owner‐Occupied and Rental Housing Markets? Evidence from an Estimated DSGE Model

Most dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models with a housing market do not explicitly include a rental market and assume a tight mapping between house prices and rents over the business cycle. However, rents are much smoother than house prices in the data. We match this feature of the data by adding both an owner‐occupied housing market and a rental market in a standard DSGE model. The intertemporal preference shock accounts for more than half of the variation in house prices and contributes to residential investment fluctuations through the liquidity constraint, and nominal rigidity in rental contracts captures the variation in the price‐rent ratio.     

Can Stock Markets Predict M&A Failure? A Study of European Transactions in the Fifth Takeover Wave

In this paper we develop various measures of M&A failure for an intra‐European sample during the fifth takeover wave: inferior long‐term stock performance, inferior operating performance, and target divestment. After documenting the extent of M&A failure, we test the relation between short‐term abnormal returns at deal announcement and M&A failure. We examine a sample where listed bidders acquire listed targets (267 deals) as well as privately‐held targets (336 deals). Our results indicate M&A failure rates up to 50% in both samples. When acquirers and targets are listed, lower M&A announcement returns are consistently and significantly associated with higher M&A failure probabilities and long‐term losses. In contrast, when targets are privately held, we find no evidence of such an association.     

Prices or Knowledge? What Drives Demand for Financial Services in Emerging Markets?

Financial development is critical for growth, but its microdeterminants are not well understood. We test leading theories of low demand for financial services in emerging markets, combining novel survey evidence from Indonesia and India with a field experiment. We find a strong correlation between financial literacy and behavior. However, a financial education program has modest effects, increasing demand for bank accounts only for those with limited education or financial literacy. In contrast, small subsidies greatly increase demand. A follow‐up survey confirms these findings, demonstrating that newly opened accounts remain open and in use 2 years after the intervention.     

Is the Virtual Integration of Financial Markets Beneficial in Emerging Markets? Evidence from MILA

This article analyzes whether the Latin American Integrated Market (MILA) has been beneficial for its participants. Using a dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) model proposed by Engle (2002), we found evidence that creating MILA increased the correlation levels in stock returns of member countries. Evidence indicates that this increase occurs mainly due to the increase in traded volume in the country with the least developed stock market—Peru.

In short, findings suggest that in an integration process such as MILA, as stock market members differ, in terms of stock market development, the markets will benefit from the integration. However, in the long term these benefits dissipate over time.     

The Housing Cycle: What Role for Mortgage Market Development and Housing Finance?

The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics - We use duration analysis to assess the impact of securitization, mortgage sector liberalization and government involvement in housing finance on...     

European Debt Crisis and European Monetary Integration： from the Perspective of Causes of Institutional Change

欧债危机是由主权债务违约所引发的区域性信用危机,其产生的原因是复杂而深刻的。本文从推动欧洲货币制度变迁的因素角度出发,分析了欧债危机爆发的原因,认为欧债危机是欧洲货币一体化过程中政治因素主导的强制性制度变迁所引发的必然后果。相应地,其解决方法是建立一个统一的政治协调机制,或者让渡政治因素在欧洲货币制度变迁过程中的主导地位,使经济因素更为自主地发挥调节作用。     

Is There a Size Effect in the Pricing of Stocks in the Chinese Stock Markets?: The Case of Bull Versus Bear Markets

Size effect studies generally suggest that a return premium exists for small firms. While the size effect has mostly disappeared in recent years in mature markets (e.g., US and UK), it remains mostly strong in developing markets. The purpose of this paper is to examine the relationship between firm size and excess stock returns in the Chinese stock markets, and to examine this effect in both a bull and bear market. No studies have previously examined these relationships in the Chinese markets. The results of the study indicate that a size effect exists in the Chinese stock markets over the 6-year period from 1998 to 2003. We find small firms have significantly greater excess returns than large firms. Moreover, small firms are found to have a stronger reaction to the direction of the market than large firms. Small firms have significantly greater positive excess returns than large firms during the bull market. However, small firms have significantly greater negative returns (using total market value), or no significant difference in returns (using float market value) during the bear market period.     

Have IFRS Affected Earnings Management in the European Union?

There has recently been considerable discussion of those features of IFRS that are likely to help improve financial reporting in the European Union. However, certain issues may also have a negative impact on the quality of information. This paper focuses on the effect of IFRS on earnings management. Its main purpose is to examine whether the adoption of IFRS in the European Union has increased or decreased the scope for discretionary accounting practices by comparing discretionary accruals in the periods preceding and immediately after the regulatory change. Another objective is to determine which firms' features and country factors may explain the accounting discretion observed before and after IFRS. We consider a sample of non-financial firms listed on 11 EU stock markets. The results obtained show that earnings management has intensified since the adoption of IFRS in Europe, as discretionary accruals have increased in the period following implementation. The variables explaining accounting discretion are the same before and after IFRS (business size, leverage, investor protection and legal enforcement). These results suggest that variations in earnings management might be due to some room for manipulation under international standards when compared with local standards.     

Does the Presence of Big Banks Influence Competition in Local Markets?

This paper examines whether the biggest organizations in the banking industry influence competition differently than their smaller rivals. Big bank financial strength, multimarket links, diversified operations, status as too big to fail, economies of scale and scope, and in some cases, weak incentives to be aggressive may result in big banks affecting competition in a given local market differently than would be suggested by market shares and other structural measures. Understanding the influence of big banks on competition has important implications for antitrust policy toward bank mergers. Empirical results reveal that, in rural markets where big banks operate, competition may be reduced, thereby enabling all banks in those markets to earn greater returns. The presence of a big bank is associated with an approximately 0.09 percentage point effect on a bank's return on assets, which represents about a 7.7% performance advantage for firms that face big banks over firms that do not. The relationship between big banks and profitability holds only when banks are classified as big if they are both very large and regionally prominent. The presence of banks that possess only one of these characteristics does not appear to substantially influence competition. Finally, no clear and consistent patterns of variation are found in the relationship between the profitability of small banks and the presence of big banks. The number of big banks, the market shares of big banks, and the level of concentration in markets with big banks do not strongly influence the relationship.     

How is the IFRS for SME accepted in the European context? An analysis of the homogeneity among European countries,users and preparers in the European commission questionnaire

In this paper we analyze the answers to the “Questionnaire on the public consultation of the IFRS for SMEs”, promoted by the European Commission. Our aim is to evaluate the homogeneity among respondents, according to the different perspectives of analysis between both users, preparers and also in European Countries. Results show a substantial diversity among respondents. In particular, preparers demonstrate a strong opposition to the IFRS for SMEs, while users are more favorable. Concerning Country classification, German-speaking Countries and Latin Countries show much less appreciation for that standard with respect to Anglo − Nordic Countries. Relevant consequences for European public policy issues and for accounting studies on differential reporting arise from this result, concerning respectively the role of European accounting system and the acceptance of “user primacy” principle.     

Evidence, What Evidence? The Foundations for Housing Policy

Developments in housing policy and practice have been marked by strong ideological stances and a persistent unwillingness to clarify ends and means, so that key policy questions remain unresolved. Evidence can, and does, impact on policy, but only under certain conditions; for example, if it relates to a specific policy question, is restricted to the interests of a single government department and, especially, if it implies reductions in public spending. Moreover, housing's complexity and relationship with a range of policy areas requires a linked perspective, at a local scale. A predominance of sector-specific, cross-sectional and qualitative research, allied to inadequate data impede the production of evidence to meet this challenge.     

Housing Really Is the Business Cycle: What Survives the Lessons of 2008–09?

The downturn of 2008–09 has confirmed that: (i) housing is the single most critical part of the U.S. business cycle, (ii) the proper conduct of monetary policy needs to be cognizant that choices made at one point in time affect the options later, and (iii) the best time to intervene in the housing cycle is when the volume of building is above normal and growing more so. What was different this time was the rapid and substantial decline in home prices.     

Do US Corporate Governance Standards Effectively Discourage Risk in the Emerging Markets?

This study provides an examination of the effect of various corporate governance factors on the management of the risks inherent in business and the potential divergent impact of these factors on US firms and firms in emerging countries. In particular, the study scrutinises corporate governance and corporate risk‐taking behaviour across different political and socioeconomic environments. In a cross‐sectional time‐series setting, two‐step generalised least squares regression outcomes reveal that the impact of corporate governance on corporate risk taking demonstrates similar implications for US and emerging markets firms in several ways. Nonetheless, the findings also indicate that although some of the US governance standards are effective in the emerging markets, further strengthening of governance standards may be required. Specific governance aspects of the emerging markets, such as board and committee composition, are still lacking when compared to those of the US. Regardless of these differences, the outcomes reveal that those US governance standards adopted by the firms in the emerging markets strengthen governance structures and discourage corporate risk‐taking behaviour.     

Do Inventories Matter in Dealership Markets? Evidence from the London Stock Exchange

Using London Stock Exchange data, we test the central implication of the canonical model of Ho and Stoll (1983) that relative inventory differences determine dealer behavior. We find that relative inventories explain which dealers obtain large trades and show that movements between best ask, best bid, and straddle are highly correlated with both standardized and relative inventory changes. We show that the mean reversion in inventories is highly nonlinear and increasing in inventory levels. We show that a key determinant of variations in interdealer trading is inventories and that interdealer trading plays an important role in managing large inventory positions.     

What Causes Fraudulent Financial Reporting? Evidence Based on H Shares

This paper investigates fraudulent financial reporting (FFR) in the China-based companies listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (called H shares) in which Chinese government officials have a high degree of involvement and heavy impact on audit quality and corporate governance. It intends to find out the causes of FFR, the opportunities that make such reporting possible, and whether the presence of politically connected executives creates an environment that is conducive to FFR. The results show that the corporate environment most likely to lead to FFR is characterized by earnings management accounting practices.     

Are extreme returns priced in the stock market? European evidence

This paper revisits some recently found evidence in the literature on the cross-section of stock returns for a carefully constructed dataset of euro area stocks. First, we confirm recent results for US data and find evidence of a negative cross-sectional relation between extreme positive returns and average returns after controlling for characteristics such as momentum, book-to-market, size, liquidity and short term return reversal. We argue that this is the case because these stocks have lottery-like characteristics, which is attractive to certain investors. Also, these stocks tend to be very volatile so that arbitrageurs are discouraged from correcting potential mispricing. As a consequence, these stocks are often overpriced and hence face lower expected returns. Second, when we control for extreme returns, the recently found negative relationship between idiosyncratic risk and future returns is less robust. In our models, after adding maximum returns, the relationship is insignificant and sometimes even positive. We also find that idiosyncratic skewness and coskewness play an important role for asset pricing, as predicted by several theoretical models.     

What drives individual investors in the bear market?

This study uses a unique dataset from a large anonymous brokerage firm to examine the net investment of individual investors during a bear market. The study's empirical evidence reveals that individual investors provide liquidity by acting as net buyers. Particularly, male and younger investors tend to have a higher buying intensity than the others during the market downturn. Besides, better performances when the market crashed encourage investors to be overconfident, thus exhibiting self-attribution bias since we do not find similar results in the bull-market subsample. Results from the stock-level analysis imply that investors tend to buy stocks with worse short-term past performance, higher liquidity, and larger market capitalization. Our findings on the individual investor trading behaviour cannot be explained by either a superior stock-picking ability or a higher tendency to gamble during the market downswing.