Mean-Reversion in REITs Discount to NAV &; Risk Premium

REITs discount to NAV is a puzzling regularity. The sharp increase in volatility of REITs prices over the past few years has spurred a relatively new concern amongst academics, managers and investors about the consequences of, and causes of, property risk premium on discount to NAV. The two interrelated questions arising from the recent increase in volatility of REITs prices are: Is the increased volatility responsible for the observed widening in discount to NAV? What does the observed private and public risk premium tell us about discount to NAV? We attempt to address these questions by analysing risk premiums in private and public real estate markets. The analysis is conducted in the most recent years of high stock price volatility. Our analysis reveals two major results: a tendency for discount to NAV to revert to the long term mean value of 20% and, more significantly, a lower risk premium in equivalent yields in private market than in public market. These results suggest that investors in public market have a different conception of property risk and complexity of lease options than what is conveyed by private property valuation.     

Information Uncertainty and the Post-Earnings-Announcement Drift Anomaly: Insights from REITs

This is the first study to examine the post-earnings-announcement drift anomaly in a Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) context. The efficient markets hypothesis suggests that unexpected earnings should be fully incorporated into asset prices soon after being publicly announced. We hypothesize that publicly announced earnings signals may be more certain for REITs due to the presence of a parallel (private) asset market, suggesting less drift for REIT stocks. However, we find a large REIT drift component that is both statistically and economically significant. Furthermore, while the initial earnings surprise response is more muted for REITs, we find that the magnitude of the drift is significantly larger for REITs than for ordinary common stocks (NonREITs). Thus, information does not appear to move between the private and public asset markets in such a way as to render REIT earnings signals more certain than NonREIT earnings signals.     

What Determines Stock Price Synchronicity in REITs?

This paper studies the behavior of REIT stock price synchronicity for the years 1997 through 2006. Theory suggests that REIT stock prices should be largely independent of market changes; and, at the very least, REITs should have a low covariance with other assets, including other REIT stocks. The evidence presented below does not support this view. Instead, synchronicity appears to be quite high in the equity REIT market, especially among REITs that larger and more liquid. We also find that REIT stock price synchronicity is negatively related to hedge fund ownership, but positively related to pension fund and insurance company ownership. The evidence further suggests that synchronicity is the highest among industrial and regional mall REITs, and lower among apartment, health care, and mixed property REITs.     

The Effects of Industry Specific and Local Economic Factors on Credit Default Swap Spreads: Evidence from REITs

Credit Default Swap (CDS) spreads on Real Estate Investment Trust (REITs) have been extremely volatile since the onset of 2008 financial crisis. To have a better understanding of it, we examine the CDS spreads on REITs for both pre- and post-crisis with a particular focus on the effects of geographic concentration and local economic conditions on CDS spreads on REITs. We document that, above and beyond the factors of commonality suggested in the literature, a REIT’s geographic concentration has strong explanatory power for the behaviors of CDS spreads on REITs and the magnitude of this impact depends on the state of the local economy. Our findings suggest there is a potential local-to-private risk transfer through which market participants incorporate their expectations about the future economic health of the region into asset prices. This channel leads to significant co-movement between CDS spreads on REITs and the performance of local economy.     

Dividend Taxes and Share Prices: Evidence from Real Estate Investment Trusts

Prior empirical evidence regarding the impact of dividend taxes on firm valuation is mixed. This study avoids some of the complications encountered in previous empirical work by exploiting institutional characteristics of REITs, such as their limited discretion over dividend policy and the relative transparency of REIT assets. We regress the market value of equity on the market value of assets and tax basis, which creates tax deductions that lower future dividend taxes without affecting future pretax cash flow. We find that firm value is positively related to tax basis, suggesting that future dividend taxes are capitalized into share prices.     

Property Company Stock Price and Net Asset Value: A Mean Reversion Perspective

This study investigates the relationship between property company stock prices (P) and their net asset values (NAV) from a mean reversion perspective. In contrast to U.K. evidence, we find that there is absence of a long-term stable relationship between the two series. However, the variance ratio tests and multi-period regressions suggest that both P and NAV series have exhibited transitory components. In addition, there is some evidence of mean reversion behavior of Singapore property stock prices toward the property companies' NAVs over the past 15 years from 1985 to 1999, both at individual company level and in the sector as a whole. The results also reveal that NAV, as a traditional proxy to fundamental value, is significant in capturing the dynamics of the changes in property stock prices. Hence NAV is relevant in property company valuation. However the extent of mean reversion between the property stock prices and NAVs is slow and deviations between the two markets' valuation could therefore be prolonged.     

Commonality in Liquidity and Real Estate Securities

We conduct an empirical investigation of the exposure of U.S. REIT returns to commonality in liquidity. Taking advantage of the specific characteristics of REITs, we study three types of commonality in liquidity: within-asset commonality, cross-asset commonality (with the stock market), and commonality with the underlying property market. We find evidence that the three types of commonality in liquidity represent significant risk factors for REIT returns but only during bad market conditions. We also find that using a linear approach, rather than a conditional, would have underestimated the role of commonality in liquidity risk. This could explain (at least partly) the small impact of commonality on asset prices documented in the extant literature. We also analyze the economic sources of commonality in liquidity and find that demand-side factors prevail over supply-side factors.     

The Relative Importance of Stock, Bond and Real Estate Factors in Explaining REIT Returns

This paper examines the link between REIT, financial asset and real estate returns, and tests whether it changed subsequent to the “REIT boom” of the early 1990s. The main focus is on answering the question do REIT returns now better reflect the performance of underlying direct (unsecuritized) real estate? We develop and implement a variance decomposition for REIT returns that separates REIT return variability into components directly related to major stock, bond, and real estate-related return indices, as well as idiosyncratic or sector-specific effects. This is applied to aggregate REIT sector (NAREIT) returns as well as returns to size and property-type based REIT portfolios. Our results show that the REIT market went from being driven largely by the same economic factors that drive large cap stocks through the 1970s and 1980s to being more strongly related to both small cap stock and real estate-related factors in the 1990s. There is also a steady increase over time in the proportion of volatility not accounted for by stock, bond or real estate related factors. We also find that small cap REITs are “more like real estate” compared to larger cap REITs, at least over the 1993–1998 period. We argue that this could be a result of the institutionalization of the ownership of larger cap REITs that took place in the 1990s.     

Portfolio greenness and the financial performance of REITs

This paper investigates the effects of the energy efficiency and sustainability of commercial properties on the operating and stock performance of a sample of US REITs, providing insight into the net benefits of green buildings. We match data on LEED- and Energy Star-certified buildings with detailed information on REIT portfolios and calculate the share of green properties for each REIT over the 2000–2011 period. We estimate a two-stage regression model and document that the greenness of REITs is positively related to three measures of operating performance – return on assets, return on equity and the ratio of funds from operations to total revenue. We also document that there is no significant relationship between the greenness of property portfolios and abnormal stock returns, suggesting that stock prices already reflect the higher cash flows deriving from investments in more efficient properties. However, REITs with a higher fraction of green properties display significantly lower market betas.     

The Role of Correlated Trading in Setting REIT Prices

This study investigates the role of correlated trading by individuals in setting equity real estate investment trust (REIT) prices. Consistent with existing literature, this study finds that there is a common element in correlated trades that drives both traditional closed-end fund prices and REIT prices. Perhaps more important, we find evidence suggesting that (1) the effects of correlated trading on REIT prices are stronger for those REITs that are hypothesized to be preferred by individual investors, and (2) this linkage is stronger when the REIT market is hot and exuberant; i.e., when the average share turnover in the REIT market is high.     

Returns transmission, value at risk, and diversification benefits in international REITs: evidence from the financial crisis

We examine daily cross-market return interactions and downside risk between a US REIT returns index and the return indexes of twelve international REIT markets. These relationships are investigated for a period of normal REIT market conditions as well as for periods of inflating and collapsing REIT prices. We find that US REIT returns are contemporaneously correlated with other REITs most strongly during the bubble and crash market conditions where the US REIT market is an almost unilateral transmitter of returns. We also find that the Value at Risk (VaR) of the least capitalized REIT markets is proportionally higher during base/normal market conditions but that the largest REIT markets have the highest VaR contribution during the crash (financial crisis) period. Overall, our evidence indicates that REIT market risk shifted to the largest REIT markets and that diversification benefits eroded considerably during turbulent market conditions.     

Responses of REITs index and commercial property prices to economic uncertainties: A VAR analysis

We use market participants’ perceived uncertainty to investigate the response of real estate investment trusts index (REITs Index) and commercial property prices to shocks in economic uncertainty. Using US quarterly data and applying a vector autoregression (VAR) model, our results show that an increase in market participants’ perceived uncertainty leads to a significant drop in the REITs Index and commercial property prices. In addition, we show that the REITs Index responds quicker to the uncertainty shocks than the commercial property prices. Our findings provide important implications for investors.     

Capital Structure Theory and REIT Security Offerings

In this paper, we examine the stock price reactions to announcements of new security offerings by Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs). REITs offer a unique setting in which to study these events because they do not pay taxes at the firm level. Theory suggests that the net tax gain to corporate borrowing is unambiguously negative for a REIT. Contrary to some recent studies, however, we find a positive stock price reaction to debt offerings, while the negative equity-issuance effect is preserved. Further empirical evidence lends support to signalling as the explanation for the positive significant debt-issuance effect.     

Net Asset Value Discounts for Asian-Pacific Real Estate Companies: Long-Run Relationships and Short-Term Dynamics

This study investigates the time series behavior of real estate company net asset value discount/premium (NAVDISC) in eight Asian-Pacific securitized real estate markets from 1995 to 2003. We postulate that if there is a stable NAVDISC for real estate companies in the long-run, then there should be a long-run cointegrating relation between their stock prices (Ps) and net asset values (NAVs). Employing panel data cointegration econometrics that comprises three approaches; panel unit root test, heterogeneous panel cointegration test and dynamic panel error-correction modeling (ECM), we find that long run NAVDISCs persist in individual Asian-Pacific securitized real estate markets and the regional market. All the NAVDISCs exhibit mean reversion and that the respective disequilibrium errors fluctuate around the mean values. Moreover, NAV is an important factor that statistically explains the price variations in real estate stock prices regardless of their speed of mean-reversion in the NAV discount /premium.     

REIT Short Sales and Return Predictability

We examine REIT short sale transactions and show REITs are shorted less frequently than non-REITs. Results also show short sellers are less able to predict negative future returns for REITs, relative to non-REITs, which is consistent with increased pricing efficiency for REITs and suggests REIT assets are more transparent. In a broader context, these results suggest differences in transparency across asset types influence the effectiveness of short selling. Results showing REIT short sellers are contrarian imply traders target REITs that are performing well instead of underperforming REITs, suggesting restrictions on REIT short sales should be re-evaluated.     

Analysis of REIT IPOs Using a Market Microstructure Approach: Anomalous Behavior or Asset Structure

In this research, we examine and present new evidence on the market activity following the initial public offering (IPO) of a real estate investment trust (REIT) using microstructure data. We analyze the bid-ask spread differences for REIT securities compared to common stocks and closed-end funds for all IPOs between 1985 and 1988. Our results show that REITs, as a whole sample, experience significantly greater bid-ask spreads immediately following the IPO compared to common stocks and funds. However, this outcome is driven by the equity REIT sample, with the mortgage REIT sample having significantly smaller bid-ask spreads. This is in contrast to the evidence documented by Nelling, Mahoney, Hildebrand, and Goldstein (1995). We attribute our result to the underlying asset structure (such as equity, hybrid, and mortgage portfolios) of the various REITs. Overall, however, we find that bid-ask spreads for REITs are similar to those of common stock when both asset structure and the traditional determinants of the spread (share price, trade volume, and returns variance) are considered.     

Dividends, Values and Agency Costs in REITs

This study examines the market value of REIT dividends conditional on transparency of operating structure and effectiveness of boards. Results suggest that total, mandatory and discretionary dividends are valued by the market. Consistent with agency cost theory, results provide some evidence that discretionary dividends paid by REITs with greater principal-agent conflicts have greater market value. Specific results suggest an increased value of excess dividends paid by firms with more complex organizational structures (UPREITs) and, to some degree, less independent boards. This evidence implies the equity market recognizes REITs’ substitution of discretionary dividends for stronger governance.     

How Informative Is Floating NAV When Securities Trade Infrequently?

We examine if a floating net asset value (NAV) increases the transparency of risk for investors. Using closed‐income fixed income funds we find little evidence that a floating NAV helps investors better understand the value and risk of a fund when a fund's assets trade infrequently. This potentially informs the debate regarding the adoption of a floating NAV in the money market industry. Our results suggest that it is unlikely that the benefits of floating NAV will outweigh the costs.     

Do Alternative Real Estate Investment Vehicles Add Value to REITs? Evidence from German Open-ended Property Funds

Besides the more commonly used REITs, German investors can also invest in a lesser-known real estate vehicle, Open-ended Property Funds. OPFs are considered a compromise between listed and direct real estate investments. OPF fund managers generally provide daily (perfect) liquidity. However, if liquidity falls below 5%, share redemptions in these funds can be temporarily suspended for a period of up to two years. During this time, investors will only be able to sell shares on the secondary market (exchange), and are thus subject to significant liquidity risk. The objective of this paper is to analyze whether OPFs add value to investor portfolios above that provided by REITs. We show that OPFs have a diversification advantage over REITs in low-risk portfolios, despite their larger potential liquidity risk. REIT liquidity is comparable to that of ordinary common stock, but OPFs exhibit an average initial discount to funds’ NAV of about 6% when share redemptions are temporarily suspended. However, in the long-run, this potential redemption suspension does not negatively influence OPF performance (in case OPFs reopen again). This makes OPFs an attractive investment alternative to REITs for investors who have a high level of risk aversion and a long-term investment horizon, such as endowments, insurance companies, and pension funds.     

Rushing to Overpay: Modeling and Measuring the REIT Premium

We explore the questions of why Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) pay more for real estate than non-REIT buyers and by how much. First, we develop a search model where REITs optimally pay more for property because (1) they are willing, due to cost of capital advantages and, (2) they are occasionally rushed, due to external regulatory time constraints and internal incentives to deploy capital quickly. Second, using commercial real estate transactions, we find that the extant hedonic pricing models contain an unobserved explanatory variables bias leading to inflated estimates of the REIT premium. Third, using a repeat-sales methodology that controls for unobserved property characteristics, we derive more plausible estimates of the REIT premium. Consistent with our model, we also find the REIT-buyer premium depends on the size of the REIT advantage, the rush to deploy, and the relative presence of REITs in the market.