Technology clustering based on evolutionary patterns: The case of information and communications technologies

Technology trend analysis anticipates the direction and rate of technology changes, and thus supports strategic decision-making for innovation. As technological convergence and diversification are regarded as emerging trends, it is important to compare the growth patterns of various technologies in a particular industry to help understand the industry characteristics and analyse the technology innovation process. However, despite the potential value of this approach, conventional approaches have focused on individual technologies and paid little attention to synthesising and comparing multiple technologies. We therefore propose a new approach for clustering technologies based on their growth patterns. After technologies with similar patterns are identified, the underlying factors that lead to the patterns can be analysed. For that purpose, we analysed patent data using a Hidden Markov model, followed by clustering analysis, and tested the validity of the proposed approach by applying it to the ICT industry. Our approach provides insights into the basic nature of technologies in an industry, and facilitates the analysis and forecasting of their evolution.     

A two-stage technology foresight model with system dynamics simulation and its application in the Chinese ICT industry

Technology foresight is a process that identifies the critical technologies a country or industry needs to develop in order to shape a desired future. In this paper, a two-stage technology foresight approach is proposed. During the first stage, critical technologies are identified and evaluated by nationwide experts through Delphi surveys. In the second stage, a system dynamics simulation model is used to estimate how critical parameter values are likely to impact the attainment of foresight goals. A detailed illustration of this two-stage process is provided by a technology foresight case study in the Chinese information and communication technologies (ICT) industry. Because it was identified by the first-stage Delphi method as a critical technology, the diffusion of 4th generation wireless telecommunication technology (4G) was simulated, and experimentation was conducted. Suggestions are provided regarding how the Chinese information industry would need to expand the IP network infrastructure in order to support technology foresight goals under different scenarios.     

Technology product evolution and the diffusion of new product features

The evolution of technology products can be analysed on multiple levels. Product categories go through continuous evolution determined by the cumulative changes in the features of new product models. This is manifested in the diffusion of new product features and in the increasingly vague boundaries between different product generations. This article develops an approach for planning and forecasting technology product evolution and the diffusion of new product features. This is achieved by isolating the phenomena underlying the evolution process, and formulating the process at the product category, product feature, and product model levels. The approach is derived from these formulations combining the primarily demand-driven product category diffusion and product unit replacement behaviour, and the more supply-driven product feature dissemination. The approach enables meaningful sensitivity analysis including the analysis of discontinuities. The developed approach is applied to characterise the evolution of an example product category of mobile handsets and to forecast the diffusion of mobile handset features using extensive longitudinal and cross-sectional data collected from Finland. In consequence, the process of technology product evolution and the phenomenon of product feature dissemination are suggested as extensions to research on product category diffusion and replacement.     

Diffusion of mobile telephony in India: An empirical study

Diffusion of new technology is an important driver of economic growth. In this paper, diffusion of mobile telephony in India is studied. There is a vast diffusion potential in this country which needs to be exploited efficiently and in a rational way. This paper investigates the social, technological, economical and political (STEP) factors that have influenced the diffusion process of mobile telephony especially the diffusion speed. The epidemic model, which is widely employed in the diffusion studies of mobile telephony, is used for the study. The data is fitted into logistic, gompertz, and bass models by nonlinear least squares and it is found that gompertz model best describes the diffusion process of mobile telephony in India. The study reveals that competition and government intervention played a significant role in accelerating the diffusion speed of mobile telephony by making the technology affordable. It is found that mobile telephony is a substitute for fixed line telephony in India. The findings will be useful in taking managerial decisions with respect to factors in forecasting and controlling the diffusion process of emerging technologies.     

Technology and health expenditures: a demand approach applied to a process innovation

There is controversy among economists as to whether the diffusion of new medical technologies has been a contributing factor to rising health expenditures. The economic literature is critically reviewed and another approach is advocated. This alternative approach rests on the distinction between product and process innovations. It is argued that the relationship between process innovations and health expenditures can be illuminated by determining if the process innovation and the original procedure are utilized as substitutes. The empirical results provide no indication that alternative technologies for diagnosing diseases/conditions of the upper gastrointestinal tract have been utilized as substitutes by Australian medical practitioners operating on a fee-for-service basis. This study finds no evidence to indicate that the process innovation of fibre optic endoscopy has reduced health expenditures associated with diagnosis of diseases/conditions of the upper gastrointestinal tract.     

Research on the Diffusion Model of Innovation

In this paper, the model of competing technologies diffusion was set up in order to analyze the relationship of competing technologies in diffusion process, and the stability of diffusion model with two kinds of competing technologies was analyzed. It is concluded that dominator can hold competing vantage by suppressing its opponent, and besides, whether competing technology can gain superiority in diffusion process depends on the success rates of technology diffusion when the two kinds of technology match each other in strength.     

Forecasting emerging technologies: Use of bibliometrics and patent analysis

It is rather difficult to forecast emerging technologies as there is no historical data available. In such cases, the use of bibliometrics and patent analysis have provided useful data. This paper presents the forecasts for three emerging technology areas by integrating the use of bibliometrics and patent analysis into well-known technology forecasting tools such as scenario planning, growth curves and analogies. System dynamics is also used to be able to model the dynamic ecosystem of the technologies and their diffusion. Technologies being forecasted are fuel cell, food safety and optical storage technologies. Results from these three applications help us to validate the proposed methods as appropriate tools to forecast emerging technologies.     

FORECASTING AUSTRALIAN MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES USING A LARGE DATASET

This paper investigates the forecasting performance of the diffusion index approach for the Australian economy, and considers the forecasting performance of the diffusion index approach relative to composite forecasts. Weighted and unweighted factor forecasts are benchmarked against composite forecasts, and forecasts derived from individual forecasting models. The results suggest that diffusion index forecasts tend to improve on the benchmark AR forecasts. We also observe that weighted factors tend to produce better forecasts than their unweighted counterparts. We find, however, that the size of the forecasting improvement is less marked than previous research, with the diffusion index forecasts typically producing mean square errors of a similar magnitude to the VAR and BVAR approaches.     

Modeling technological change in energy demand forecasting: A generalized approach

Conventional economic modeling of energy demand has characterized technological choice as an investment decision driven primarily by the relationship between capital costs and operating costs. Yet the implementation of this approach has tended to yield unrealistically high estimates of the implicit discount rate governing investment decisions, particularly those involving energy efficient technologies. This result arises from incomplete specification of the process of technological choice and the diffusion of innovations. General models of diffusion include conventional costs as one set of factors among many others that influence the spread of new technologies. These more general models have been widely applied to the adoption of other new or improved products, and their use in energy demand forecasting would lead to more accurate and reliable projections. Modification of the forecasts would have policy implications. In particular, the cost of a strategy to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by encouraging more rapid diffusion of energy efficient technologies is likely to be considerably smaller than would be suggested by the conventional economic models.     

高技术产业集群中技术创新与扩散的系统基模分析与政策解析

技术扩散(或知识溢出)是企业集群发展的一个主要诱因,但是技术扩散(或知识溢出)的微观过程依然是一个"黑箱"。将高技术产业集群看成一个系统,应用系统动力学的方法,建立了技术创新动力成长上限基模、技术扩散动力成长上限基模、知识生产与搭便车者两败俱伤基模、知识生产富者愈富基模、集群成长与投资不足基模、集群创新舍本逐末基模、集群发展饮鸩止渴基模共7个系统基模,用以揭示高技术产业集群中技术创新、技术扩散、知识生产、集群成长与集群发展之间因果关系的作用机理及运作机制,并对基模根本解作了政策解析。     

A compared R&D-based and patent-based cross impact analysis for identifying relationships between technologies

The planning of technological research and development (R&D) is demanding in areas with many relationships between technologies. To support decision makers of a government organization with R&D planning in these areas, a methodology to make the technology impact more transparent is introduced. The method shows current technology impact and impact trends from the R&D of an organization's competitors and compares these to the technology impact and impact trends from the organization's own R&D. This way, relative strength, relative weakness, plus parity of the organization's R&D activities in technology pairs can be identified.A quantitative cross impact analysis (CIA) approach is used to estimate the impact across technologies. Our quantitative CIA approach contrasts to standard qualitative CIA approaches that estimate technology impact by means of literature surveys and expert interviews. In this paper, the impact is computed based on the R&D information regarding the respective organization on one hand, and based on patent data representative regarding R&D information of the organization's competitors on the other hand. As an illustration, the application field ‘defence’ is used, where many interrelations and interdependencies between defence-based technologies occur. Firstly, an R&D-based and patent-based Compared Cross Impact (CCI) among technologies is computed. Secondly, characteristics of the CCI are identified. Thirdly, the CCI data is presented as a network to show the overall structure and the complex relationships between the technologies. Finally, changes of the CCI are analyzed over time. The results show that the proposed methodology has the potential to generate useful insights for government organizations to help direct technology investments.     

A note on the diffusion of innovation

The paper deals with the process of substitution between technologies in a framework of increasing returns to scale. The approach stresses the interaction between capacity expansion and market demand as explanations of the diffusion of technologies into their niches. The demand and supply sides of the diffusion process are therefore brought together to determine simultaneously patterns of output and prices.It analyzes the dynamics of the substitution path, where a logistic diffusion process for the new technology is assumed, and determines the substitution curve between the old technology and the new one.     

Switching regressions and activity analysis: A new approach to frontier estimation

We explore an approach to production frontier estimation based on the direct study of the primary activities in linear technologies. Technologies with smoother isoquants can be thought of as the limit of a linear technology when the number of activities grows to infinity.     

政策工具及其组合与海上风电技术创新和扩散:来自德国的考察

发展低碳经济的核心在于低碳技术创新和扩散,低碳技术创新和扩散受政策工具及其组合的直接影响。总结归纳政策工具类型、设计要点及其组合特征,分析德国海上风电技术政策工具及其组合特征,并定性研究政策工具、组合特征及相应组织对德国海上风电技术创新和扩散的具体影响。结果表明,各政策工具对海上风电技术创新和扩散具有正向影响;全面性政策工具组合能够克服海上风电技术创新和扩散面临的市场失灵、制度失灵和其它瓶颈;政策工具组合特征在单个政策工具对海上风电技术创新和扩散的影响中起调节作用;政策工具组合全面性、可靠性、一致性程度与海上风电技术创新和扩散正相关;政策工具组合可靠性与全面性、一致性之间在对海上风电技术创新影响中存在互补关系。     

Multigeneration diffusion model for economic assessment of new technology

In the era of 21st century, development of emerging information technology is the essence of the advancement. This kind of new technology, however, often requires a great deal of amount of initial investment for both procedures of R&D and commercialization. As cost invested in developing the specified technology is increasing, investors are paying more attention to cost to benefit analysis (CBA). One of the basic elements of CBA for new technological development is the diffusion pattern of demand of such technology. Typically, it would be hard to presume the diffusion pattern of demand when the new product or the technology is under development. In this case, a simulation study is necessary. Many studies of technology evaluation have adopted a single generation model to simulate the diffusion pattern of demand. This approach, however, considers the diffusion of the new technology itself, not taking into account newer generation, which can replace the one just invented. In the real market situation, one must consider the competition and substitution phenomena between old and new technologies. In this paper, we show how multigeneration technology diffusion model can be applied for more accurate CBA for information technology. Additionally, Monte Carlo simulation is performed to find influential factors on the CBA of a cybernetic building system (CBS).     

Forecasting emerging technologies with the aid of science and technology databases

Short term forecasting was applied to 20 emerging technologies under the “Machine and Materials” category based on the Vision 2023 foresight study previously conducted for Turkey. This scientometric approach uses the most suitable keywords linked to the technology in question and determines the number of publications and patents in those fields for a given year. Database analysis of publications and patents in the previous 11 years indicates that while the majority of the top 20 technologies identified by the experts are indeed emerging (i.e. the number of research and/or patenting in these technologies is increasing), some of them have not actually attracted too much interest in the science and technology (S&T) community. Forecasts based on S-curves indicate steady growth in some of the selected technologies. There is a high correlation between the number of scientific publications and patents in most of the technologies investigated. The method is proposed as a simple and efficient tool to link national foresight efforts to international S&T activities and to obtain quantitative information for prioritized technologies that could be used for technology management and decision making for research funding and technology investment.     

Innovation diffusion with generation substitution effects

Markets of high technology products and services, such as telecommunications, are described by fast technological changes and rapid generational substitutions. Since the conventional modeling approaches that are based on diffusion models do not usually incorporate this important aspect into their formulations, the accuracy of the provided forecasts is consequently affected. The work presented in this paper is concerned with the development of a methodology for describing innovation diffusion, in the context of generation substitution. For this purpose, a dynamic diffusion model is developed and evaluated, based on the assumption that the saturation level of the market does not remain constant throughout the diffusion process but is affected by the diffusion of its descendant generation, as soon as the latter is introduced into the market. In contradiction to the conventional diffusion models, which assume static saturation levels, the proposed approach incorporates the effects of generation substitution and develops a diffusion model with a dynamic ceiling. The importance of such an approach is especially significant for markets characterized by rapid technological and generational changes. Evaluation of the proposed methodology was performed over 2G and 3G historical data and for a number of European countries, providing quite accurate estimation and forecasting results, along with important information regarding the rate of generation substitution.     

A choice-based multi-product diffusion model incorporating replacement demand

This study proposes an integrated forecasting model that incorporates both first purchase diffusion and replacement component of sales in predicting multi-product diffusion patterns. The model consists of a two-stage procedure that customers undertake during purchase occasions according to a diffusion process or replacement process, and at each occasion, they make purchase incidence decisions and product choices according to a choice model. By incorporating various exogenous factors in the choice model, the model can identify the impact of each factor on customers' purchase incidence decisions and choice decisions among various product sub-categories. This approach enables us to understand the overall process of customers' purchasing behavior and to separate total sales amount into sales to three consumer segments: first-time buyers, customers who repurchase the same product category and customers who change their previous product category. We applied the proposed model in the forecasting multi-product framework; forecasting sub-category level automobile sales and brand level mobile terminal sales in the South Korean market. The results of the empirical studies showed that incorporating the replacement components into the multi-product diffusion framework is useful not only in understanding the demand interaction among automobile categories and among mobile handset brands, but also in producing more accurate long-term sales forecasts compared to previous multi-product diffusion models.     

Measuring (in a time of crisis) the impact of broadband connections on economic growth: an OECD panel analysis

Technological innovation has always been considered a major stimulus for economic growth. High-speed internet access via broadband infrastructure has undergone rapid development since the end of the 1990s, thanks to the deployment of both fixed and mobile technologies. The present study investigates the impact of fixed broadband diffusion as a technological determinant of economic growth on the basis of a panel of 23 OECD countries over 15 years (1996–2010). The time horizon chosen is suitable for verification of the causal effect on growth of the transition from traditional copper to partially fibre networks. Through implementation of a dynamic panel by using the generalized method of moments (GMM) combined with an instrumental variable (IV) two-stage approach, we found a positive correlation between broadband diffusion and economic growth, even after controlling for countries initial endowment of information and communication technologies (ICT) and for the years of economic crisis. Our main finding provides evidence, through a continuous time interpretation of our estimations, of a quantitatively relevant relationship between broadband diffusion and economic dynamics in the short, medium and long runs. Our findings may be useful to policy makers in that they permit forecasting of the benefits of further transition from broadband to ultra-wide broadband networks.