新农保制度的公共经济学分析

新型农村养老保险是我国继取消农业税、农业直补、新型农村合作医疗等政策之后的又一项重大惠民政策。实施中还存在着：自愿原则对农民参保积极性和参保水平的影响;地方政府在新农保制度中的财政支持问题;依靠集体补助的目标较难实现;保障水平较低,参保农民的福利水平很难提高;新农保制度与其他制度间的衔接等问题。针对问题,应从加强宣传,提高农民的参保意识;统筹城乡社保;完善新型农保信息管理系统;个人账户的保值增值等方面予以完善。     

基于可持续性的养老保险个人账户目标模式

养老保险个人账户的模式有完全积累制和名义账户制等。文章从社会整体、投资收益率、社会总福利和动态发展等四个角度,分析了各种养老保险模式的优劣,并提出:当前我国可实施名义账户制;在未来,在我国储蓄率和人口结构发生变化后,可适时调整养老保险制度的模式。     

养老保险转移接续办法等2009年4季度将出台

人力资源和社会保障部副部长胡晓义日前表示,《养老保险转移接续办法》、《农民工参加养老保险办法》将在2009年4季度出台。出台之后,可以缓解现在普遍反映的转移接续难的问题。第一,通过降低农民工参加养老保险缴费比例使更多农民工有能力参加养老保险;第二,通过对每一个参保人的权益和个人账户的记录以及跨地区的资金转移保证参保人这种权益的延续和累积;第三,设计了和新型农村养老保险的政策衔接,使得即使回到农村去的农民工的权益也可以继续得到保障。     

统筹城乡的基本养老保险个人账户基金市场化运营机制与模式

我国社保制度建设已步入"快车道",统筹城乡的基本养老保险个人账户基金市场化运营迫切、适时。文章梳理相关环境因素,构建基于微观主体分类的效用函数,通过一般均衡分析刻画出基本养老保险个人账户基金市场化运营的经济机制和经济效应,进而设置了"以中低收入群体福利为标的、采取城乡分离运营"的统筹城乡基本养老保险个人账户基金市场化运营模式,最后安排了补充的政策搭配。     

关于做实养老保险个人账户问题的思考

养老保险个人账户作为应对老龄化社会到来的一种重要手段,其运作成功与否对社会的稳定十分重要。然而在实施过程中,养老保险个人账户空账运行问题日益严峻,已经严重影响了社会保险制度的健康发展。本文通过分析个人账户空账运行的原因,提出做实个人账户的建议,旨在寻找做实个人账户的合理方法,完善我国的基本养老保险制度,积极应对老龄化社会的到来。     

中国养老保险体系改革的福利经济学分析

中国养老保险体系在1997年进行了全方位的改革,其特征是个人账户与统筹账户的融合,对世界银行三支柱方案进行了充分借鉴。可是,直接影响中国养老金体系改革的很多问题不可忽略：资本市场较为脆弱,无法实现基金管理所提出的需求;形式化的个人账户;不系统的统筹账户等问题。基于此,本文主要以中国养老保险体系改革的福利经济学为基本点进行详细的分析。     

谈谈养老保险个人账户实账运作

个人账户基金实账运作是坚持社会统筹与个人账户相结合的基本养老保险制度中的一项基础性工作。实现个人账户实账运作是广大参保人员的共同意愿，也是各级社保机构的一项重要职责。近年来，我们在解决个人账户空账问题方面做了一些努力和探索，现就有关问题谈点看法，与大家共同探讨。     

养老保险参保行为理论及实证研究

依据中国最新的基本养老保险政策,采用养老保险精算方法构建基本养老保险参保模型分析参保人的行为模式,研究不同个体特征对参保人行为的可能影响后发现,在现行政策条件下,基本养老保险制度吸引力十分有限.结果显示,随着年龄的增加,参保人参保的积极性也提高;而收入水平与参保率之间存在显著的正相关.另外,居民教育水平、用工形式、单位性质、制度透明度等因素也是影响参保率的重要因素;而参保人性别与参保概率没有显著相关性.     

论现行养老保险制度个人账户的政策走向

"统账结合"的养老保险模式是我国政府的一大创造,它充分体现了效率与公平的原则,有利于新旧保险制度的过渡。然而在实施的过程中,养老保险隐性债务与个人账户空账运行日益暴露出来,特别是个人账户空账运行已影响到民众对政府的信心,危及社会保险制度的健康发展,阻碍和谐社会的构建。笔者分析个人账户空账造成的原因,提出建立个人账户的政策建议,对促进我国养老保险制度的可持续发展具有重要意义。     

论现行养老保险制度个人账户的政策走向

"统账结合"的养老保险模式是我国政府的一大创造,它充分体现了效率与公平的原则,有利于新旧保险制度的过渡.然而在实施的过程中,养老保险隐性债务与个人账户空账运行日益暴露出来,特别是个人账户空账运行已影响到民众对政府的信心,危及社会保险制度的健康发展,阻碍和谐社会的构建.笔者分析个人账户空账造成的原因,提出建立个人账户的政策建议,对促进我国养老保险制度的可持续发展具有重要意义.     

我国最优混合养老保险体制的选择:收益和风险分析

养老金研究的核心问题之一在于选择合适的养老金计划运行方式。文章基于中国实际,通过引入随机性的"权衡理论"模型分析发现,在代表性参保人效用最大化前提下,运行方式选择类似于金融资产组合问题。所谓的艾隆条件只是在确定性模型下的特定结果。在加入风险因素后,即便在艾隆条件下,引入一定的积累制也将改善养老金体系的运行状况。两种制度最优的混合比例将受到人口增长率、工资增长率、个人风险规避倾向和金融市场因素的共同影响。分析结果表明提高养老金计划运行收益率和养老基金分散化投资有利于增进参保人效用。     

我国新型农村养老保险对财政体系可持续性的影响研究——基于代际核算方法的模拟分析

文章利用Auerbach等(1991)提出的代际核算方法,基于符合国情的参数假设,分析了各种"新农保"方案对财政体系可持续性的影响。模拟结果表明,按照目前方案建立"新农保"体系并不会给政府增加太多负担,"新农保"覆盖面扩大的快慢对财政体系的负担基本也没有影响。由于个人账户中积累的资金目前按照一年期定期存款计息,政府承担的个人账户长寿风险非常有限。"新农保"体系带给政府的主要财政负担来自全额负担基础养老金,如果政府把全国的基础养老金都提高至上海市每月135元的水平,给政府增加的负担不会过多。因此,政府可以加快"新农保"覆盖面扩大的速度,并在现有的财力水平下把全国农村的基础养老金都提高至上海市的水平,但是提高幅度不宜进一步加大。     

Trade Unions and Consumerism

Public pension systems have long been a focus of special attention by neoclassical economics. In a context of intense aging processes, mainstream economists argue that the replacement of the pay-as-you-go pensions systems by unfunded individual savings accounts will have a positive impact, at a microeconomic and at a macroeconomic level, and will protect pension systems of the negative consequences of aging. However, these conclusions depend dramatically on the assumptions of rational expectations and perfect information. When we accept the existence of uncertainty, the presumed positive consequences of these reforms disappear, showing the advantages of pay-as-you-go over funded pension systems.     

Pension Reform during the Demographic Transition

The aim of this paper is to quantify the welfare effects of some currently discussed pension reform proposals in Germany. The analysis is based on an extended overlapping-generations model which accounts for intra-generational heterogeneity, rising life expectancy and declining fertility. Given a baseline path of the economy under the existing unfunded pension system, the model calculates the macroeconomic impact as well as the distributional and efficiency effects of various pension reform measures aimed at reducing the level of the future unfunded pension system. Simulations reveal that pension reforms cannot be evaluated solely in terms of inter- and intra-generational equity. Substantial efficiency gains or losses might arise if the linkage between contributions and benefits is improved or weakened.     

Reforming social security: assessing the effects of alternative funding strategies

Population ageing implies that the large pay-as-you-go social security programmes implemented in many OECD economies will run into severe financial problems. By means of a numerical overlapping generations model, this paper investigates the intergenerational welfare effects of a transition to funded security programmes. Such programmes imply permanent increases in the welfare of the young and unborn generations. It is demonstrated that the size of the welfare gains varies significantly between alternative funding strategies. A nonindividualized funding strategy characterized by increased government asset accumulation triggers considerable welfare gains through increased asset returns in the future. Even larger welfare gains may be realized by an individual funding strategy characterized by increased asset accumulation accompanied by an adoption of actuarial supplementary pensions (i.e. actuarial supplementary pensions combined with a fixed minimum pension) which reduces future tax distortions drastically.     

An increase in the retirement age in China: the regional economic effects

China’s pension system is in need of comprehensive reform. One measure on which we focus is to increase the retirement age. It is likely that a change in retirement age will have significantly different effects across China’s regions. Interregional disparities are already very substantial in China and it will be important to know how changes in pension arrangements will affect disparities. We consider four policies to increase the retirement age from 60 to 61. They differ according the use made of the extra revenue generated by the policy. All four policies increase welfare and reduce the interregional welfare gap.     

Policy effects on transitional welfare in an overlapping generations model: A pay-as-you-go pension reconsidered

We study the welfare effects of a pay-as-you-go (PAYG) pension system in transition, as well as in the steady state, by showing how the total welfare effects are determined by a cumulative effect on capital. Theoretical studies have shown that the introduction of a PAYG pension system reduces steady-state welfare under dynamic efficiency. Nevertheless, such pension systems have been widely adopted in the real world. To explain this, we algebraically and graphically prove that the PAYG pension system could be Pareto-improving in transition under dynamic efficiency. Similarly, it is acknowledged that this pension system should be introduced under dynamic inefficiency because it improves steady-state welfare. However, we show that the PAYG pension system may be Pareto-deteriorating in transition. Our findings imply that governments adopt PAYG pension systems to achieve policy targets other than long-run welfare maximization.